Tips to remembering ace key cards? – Page 3

  • ycming

     

    am a bit lost of this topic, i have a vague idea what ace sequencing means. But i don’t see how it can works?

    So when the ace comes out during the play, you would remember 2 cards just before the ace? But once they start shuffling, the key cards and ace won’t be together anymore? Do you then to predict?

    IT all seems to have too much variance to try and hit the ace on your hand, or do you play several hands ?

    Thanks
    Ming

  • HockeXpert

     

    Quote: psyduck said:
    It seems to me that if the ace comes during a low count, the effort may not be as useful as simple counting.

    Think of it this way. In a neutral count an ace as a first card has about a 52% advantage. In a massive – count (SD, no tens, aces or nines left and all 2-8 remaining TC -37) you still have an advantage of almost 3%! I’ll take it.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: ycming said:
    am a bit lost of this topic, i have a vague idea what ace sequencing means. But i don’t see how it can works?

    So when the ace comes out during the play, you would remember 2 cards just before the ace? But once they start shuffling, the key cards and ace won’t be together anymore? Do you then to predict?

    IT all seems to have too much variance to try and hit the ace on your hand, or do you play several hands ?

    Thanks
    Ming

    If you thought the ace or aces were coming out next round, what would you do? This may or may not be a rhetorical question.

  • psyduck

     

    Quote: HockeXpert said:
    Think of it this way. In a neutral count an ace as a first card has about a 52% advantage. In a massive – count (SD, no tens, aces or nines left and all 2-8 remaining TC -37) you still have an advantage of almost 3%! I’ll take it.

    These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer’s hand, I think.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: psyduck said:
    These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer’s hand, I think.

    The dealer could get them either way. If he gets them in a big negative deck, he has 2 shots to make his hand with all those low cards. That is almost a sure thing for the dealer. You have the same situation but unless you are a really good card tracker in SD you probably wont hit your stiff with ace against a bust card. How many of you would realize only 2-8 are left? If you would you would be hitting everything 13 or below. This is why PE is so important in SD.

  • psyduck

     

    Quote: tthree said:
    The dealer could get them either way. If he gets them in a big negative deck, he has 2 shots to make his hand with all those low cards. That is almost a sure thing for the dealer. You have the same situation but unless you are a really good card tracker in SD you probably wont hit your stiff with ace against a bust card. How many of you would realize only 2-8 are left? If you would you would be hitting everything 13 or below. This is why PE is so important in SD.

    I don’t think any level 2 system tracks 8 in the main count though.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: psyduck said:
    These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer’s hand, I think.

    If you are playing two hands, you have a better chance than the dealer of getting the ace. Also, if the separation between the ace and two key cards is fairly predictable, you should have a good idea when you have the better chance of getting the ace.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: tthree said:
    The dealer could get them either way. If he gets them in a big negative deck, he has 2 shots to make his hand with all those low cards. That is almost a sure thing for the dealer. You have the same situation but unless you are a really good card tracker in SD you probably wont hit your stiff with ace against a bust card. How many of you would realize only 2-8 are left? If you would you would be hitting everything 13 or below. This is why PE is so important in SD.

    PE or playing efficiency is important in single deck because how quickly you gain advantage (EV) as the true count gets higher and higher above your index is a function of correlation of your count to the EOR values for the hand match up. In SD the range of TCs and frequency of extreme TCs becomes much greater so you exceed your indices by a much greater amount. High correlation (PE) reaps big gains in EV. Side counts are far easier to keep in SD which can greatly impact your PE. They are not statically joined to to a group of other cards giving strong and weakly correlated indices. They can be adjusted in whatever direction and magnitude the RC adjustment needs for its match ups were it has a strong affect on the correct play. This boost PE greatly. Even side counting cards in the main count that are important key cards boost your PE significantly. Look at the most frequent match ups and your poorest correlated indices and decide what are the most important cards to side count for your count to boost PE.

  • psyduck

     

    Quote: aslan said:
    If you are playing two hands, you have a better chance than the dealer of getting the ace. Also, if the separation between the ace and two key cards is fairly predictable, you should have a good idea when you have the better chance of getting the ace.

    Sure, if you play four hands, you further increase the chance of catching that ace. But how much are you willing to risk for that ace? If it happens to be in low counts, even if one of your hands catches the ace, the rest are still at disadvantage.

  • HockeXpert

     

    Quote: psyduck said:
    These are some good points. However, without a good chance of catching a BJ, the player does not have an advantage over the dealer because the ace can go to the dealer’s hand, I think.

    You get the ace = 52% advantage.
    Dealer gets the ace = 36% disadvantage.

    I’ll take those odds.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: psyduck said:
    Sure, if you play four hands, you further increase the chance of catching that ace. But how much are you willing to risk for that ace? If it happens to be in low counts, even if one of your hands catches the ace, the rest are still at disadvantage.

    If I am playing two hands head up with the dealer, I like my chances of getting the ace and winning the hand. I also like my chances of a bj, more so in a plus count, but even in a negative count. It’s not rocket science. If the odds favored you to get an ace, are you telling me you would not raise your bet?

  • psyduck

     

    Quote: aslan said:
    If I am playing two hands head up with the dealer, I like my chances of getting the ace and winning the hand. I also like my chances of a bj, more so in a plus count, but even in a negative count. It’s not rocket science. If the odds favored you to get an ace, are you telling me you would not raise your bet?

    The key words are “if you know”. I still think in shoe games there are too many false key cards. Do you have any quantitative data to show how your ace prediction compares to other techniques such as counting?

  • aslan

     

    Quote: psyduck said:
    The key words are “if you know”. I still think in shoe games there are too many false key cards. Do you have any quantitative data to show how your ace prediction compares to other techniques such as counting?

    At least in what you are quoting of mine, I did not say “if you know”, I said “if the odds favored you”. ZG did some write up on key carding elsewhere (it’s searchable). It shows the simple odds, and yes, it potentially can be much better than card counting if you’re good at it.

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