Lesson 15 – The Advanced Course – Part 3
Last Updated: Февраль 18, 2020Basic Strategy Variations: Double?
The opportunity to double your bet in return for agreeing to accept only one more card is a very powerful option for the player, if it’s utilized correctly. I can’t tell you how often I see players double hands like 7 or 8 against a dealer’s up card of 6 and then bemoan their fate when they lose. Yes, the dealer is very vulnerable with a 6 showing, but placing an extra bet changes the mathematics of the hand, so all doubles must be well-considered. For example, in a six-deck game where the dealer stands on A-6, doubling a hand of 8 against the dealer’s 6 has a total return of 10.3% whereas just hitting the hand returns 12.3% and the risk is lower!
That said, there comes a time when it is worthwhile to double an 8 against a dealer’s 6 and that’s when there’s a higher proportion than normal of 10s left in the deck. That point is determined, of course, by the true count. As the true count gets more positive, it becomes more profitable to double. Conversely, as the count goes negative, it becomes a better play to hit some hands, rather than double.
Лучшие онлайн-казино США
Just as you’re using flashcards to learn the hit/stand variations, make up, a set for doubling. Here are the numbers you need:
Basic Strategy Variations Six decks, dealer stands on A-6
There are slight differences in the GameMaster’s index numbers published here and the optimized numbers on the
BlackjackInfo Advanced Blackjack Strategy Cards.
These differences are usually due to the use of risk-averse calculations by the GameMaster. I maintain that for the majority
of players (who are not playing near the maximum Kelly fraction of their bankroll), straight indexes are preferable to
risk-adjusted ones. In any case where risk-averse indexes differ from straight indexes, even by several points,
the decisions are quite close and the effect of choosing one index style over another is minimal.
Soft Doubling
| A-2 vs. 4 | Double at 3. | (Got this? Basic strategy says to HIT A-2 against a 4, but if the true count is 3 or higher, you should double.) |
| A-2 vs. 5 | Double at 0. | (Don’t get confused here. Basic strategy says DOUBLE A-2 against a 5, but if the count is at all negative, just hit it; double only when the count is 0 or higher.) |
| A-2 vs. 6 | Double at -1. | (or higher. As long as the count remains above -1, you’ll double; once it goes lower than -1, you’ll just hit — then hopefully leave the table if the count doesn’t improve.) |
| A-3 vs. 4 | Double at 1. | |
| A-3 vs. 5 | Double at -1. | |
| A-4 vs. 4 | Double at 0. | |
| A-7 vs. 2 | Double at 1. | |
| A-8 vs. 4 | Double at 5. | |
| A-8 vs. 5 | Double at 2. | |
| A-8 vs. 6 | Double at 1. | |
| A-9 vs. 5 | Double at 6. | |
| A-9 vs. 6 | Double at 5. |
Hard Doubling
| 8 vs. 5 | Double at 6. |
| 8 vs. 6 | Double at 3. |
| 9 vs. 2 | Double at 2. |
| 9 vs. 3 | Double at 0. |
| 9 vs. 7 | Double at 6. |
| 10 vs. 9 | Double at -2. |
| 11 vs. A | Double at 1. |
Домашнее задание
Make up a set of flashcards for these variations and begin working them into your game.
Hello to everyone.last night i jump in a bj game that i was already counting with out playing.the numbers was very hot.rc +19 with 3 decks more to be played.on the table me and the dealer only.i make two bets of 20 euro each and the party begins.5 first card guess what !!! Faces and 10.so i have 20 and 20 and the dealer jas 10 and ….. he takes the ace!! Second round … again two boxes/bets of 15 euro and here we go again.i took 2 face cards in the first box second box an ace and an 8 and the dealer gets an ace !incurances he asks!!! And of course i put the bet.+3 tc i was calculate.and the hard time comes again … cards for the dealer again an ace (goodbye insurance)and an 9.a 9 !!!! 9 !!!! Total 21 !!! Just to loose and my bets and my incurance !!!that time i was so angry !!now i just see the maths.shit happens ?????
I don’t really get why you should start doubling on an 11 vs the dealers A when the count is 1. Both you and the dealer basicly have an “11” so the count favours both equally. But you only get 1 extra card while the dealer can keep on hitting. Shouldn’t that give the dealer a little edge over you?
I know its not that important but im just curious why this starts becomming a profitable play. Is it maybe because the dealer busts more often?
Thanks and great work, love this site
Oh and also, as the count gets bigger the dealer starts getting more Blackjacks which beats a regular “21” right?
Yes, the dealer’s hands also improve in high counts. But high counts favor the player more than the dealer because we get 3:2 on blackjack, and the dealer wins only even money. And we can stand on stiffs while the dealer must hit them. And we are more likely to succeed when we get a chance to double down in high counts, even though we will have fewer such opportunities. The game is full of subtleties.
It does seem confusing. Here’s the trick. The dealer with an Ace up already has a face-down card, and we know that it is not a ten. In the normal US “peek” game, the dealer checks under the Ace to see if he has blackjack before play resumes. So we know that the first card added to his “11” in the form of his Ace upcard can not be the best possible draw of ten. The player’s starting hand of 11 still has the opportunity to draw a ten immediately to make 21.
Oh now i get it. Thanks men know I can sleep peacefully again 🙂
So , in a game where the dealer gets only 1 card and he draws the other one only after every player stands (kinda the same as the “no peek” i guess) , what should we do? Should we still double 11 against that dealer’s Ace ? Does this affects other decisions against Ace ?
The question is are all your doubled and split bets vulnerable to an eventual dealer blackjack. If so, it’s a “no peek” game. Use the Strategy Engine set to No Peek to get the correct basic strategy.
ok but what about the advanced strategy, how can i adjust to the count? Like, should i still stand a soft 18 against dealer A at TC>1 ? and hard 14,15,16 against dealer A is still stand at TC> 9 , 9 , 8 ? or any other changes? you know better
This question was actually answered above. You can use the same indexes in a no-peek game, except ignore any that suggest splitting or doubling against a dealer ten or ace.
I have a crazy question, I play, ” blackjack professional simulator “, by pepperdogsoft.com on my iPhone it is set for six decks, das, h17, surrender and da2 and at rather large true counts it tell me to double hard 12 v a dealer 2 as an I18 suggestion, I have won that a couple of times, but in all my reading I can’t find anywhere else that is suggested, have you ever heard of such a thing.? I thought you should hit 12 v 2 until true 3. Thanks
I’m not familiar with that product, but I can tell you that if an app EVER says to double a hard 12, you should delete that app immediately!
The only time you should ever double hard 12 is if the dealer accidentally reveals the card you will receive and you know it is a 9!
Seriously, I would question the accuracy of anything else this app tells you. That’s a horrible mistake.
You are correct in hitting 12v2 until the true count reaches +3. At that point and above, stand. Never ever double.
(The index varies slightly in one-deck and some two-deck games.)
Thanks, I knew I wasn’t crazy, I thought the same thing you said, I would only ever do it I absolutely and positively knew my next card was a 9.
Are the numbers “running count” or “true count”,,,am a little bit connfused?
Index numbers for the Hi-Lo count always use the true count.
Do this Hi-Lo indexes apply with the European blackjack rules??
(no peek, dealer stands at soft 17, double any 2 cards, double after splits, no surrender, 4/6/8 decks)
Yes, the index numbers will be fine for a European no-peek game, with one adjustment: Ignore any index that has you doubling or splitting against a dealer ten or Ace.
Most of the deviation play amount to minute practical differences. For the vast majority of players would resources be best spent on focusing on a large enough kitty and supporting the psychology to contain a x10+ spread when normally you would play at best a x8 or x4 spread?
Yes, increasing your spread will have a much more dramatic impact on expected win than learning and using all the strategy variations. The advantage of card counting comes primarily from betting more when you have the advantage. Changing your strategy based on the count is just the icing on the cake. Focus on building your bank and increasing your spread first.
Спасибо, Кен. Я просто бедный студент, поэтому я считаю каждый доллар, и поэтому у меня есть определенная сумма, установленная в качестве моего банкролла. Спасибо за комментарии, они очень полезны.
Я поспорил с отцом о системах ставок с прогрессивным проигрышем. Его аргумент заключался в том, что в казино, где минимальная ставка очень низкая, а максимальная - очень высокая, казино можно обыграть.
Например, допустим, казино предлагает игру с минимальной ставкой 10 долларов и максимальной 1 310 720 долларов (я знаю, что казино никогда не предложит такую игру, но просто предположим, что для целей примера они ее предлагают). Это даст вам спред 1-18, если вы будете удваивать свою ставку после каждого проигрыша, не считая сплитов и удвоений. Мой отец утверждает, что он сможет обыграть это казино, потому что вероятность того, что он проиграет 18 рук подряд, невероятно мала.
Если предположить, что человек играет по идеальной базовой стратегии, шансы проиграть столько рук подряд составляют примерно 1 к 262144. Есть ли лучший способ объяснить это, чем сказать, что потенциальные небольшие выигрыши не учитывают возможность, какой бы маленькой она ни была, потерять 1 310 720 долларов.
У кого-нибудь есть идеи, как мне убедить отца в том, что он не прав?
Во-первых, над вашими цифрами нужно поработать. Базовая стратегия блэкджека - это примерно 43% выигрыш, 49% проигрыш, 8% пуш.
Если игнорировать толчки, то вы проигрываете (49/92)% времени.
Проиграв 18 раз подряд, мы получаем (49/92)^18 = 1/84072.
Итак, вы приходите в казино со смешными лимитами ставок с $2,621,430 в кармане и делаете свою первую ставку $10.
В среднем, удваиваясь после каждого проигрыша, вы будете терять весь свой банкролл раз в 84 072 попытки.
Когда вы не проигрываете 18 раз подряд, вы выигрываете $10. 84 072 * $10 - это всего лишь $840 720.
А на самом деле вы будете делать еще хуже, потому что вы отказываетесь от сплита, даже если это поможет вам увеличить процент выигрыша на некоторых руках. (Не удваивать - это тоже ужасно, но удвоение никогда не увеличивает процент выигрыша, а вот заработать на таких действиях можно очень много!)
Hello and thank you for this great website.
I play in France with 6 decks game and I am still in need for practise.
Just in relation with the message that talked about doubling your bet after each loss : is it right to consider you have 43% chances to win every single hand before it is dealt ?
In my mind, the chances of winning a hand depend on the true count just before that hand is dealt. Is it right to think so ? That is, when the true count is +2 for example you would have more chances to win a hand than when it is 0 ?
That would seem likely, but it turns out to not really be the case.
See this page: Win/Lose/Push by True Count.
You do lose fewer hands, and most of the difference is offset by pushing more often. Win percentage is surprisingly flat over the range of true counts.
Thanks very much for your reply.
I am getting back to study and practice. Your lessons and exercises are very helpful, thanks for sharing all of this, because it makes us understand that it is not only people with a gift that can make it, but hard work and patience will pay off.
I have one more question if you don’t mind, please :
I read the French version of KO Blackjack. Do you agree with the fact that it is sufficient to keep the running count and not the true count to have the edge over the casino ?
I think I will start that way because it’s simpler.
Yes, KO is a very effective yet simple counting system. It allows you to use just the running count because of the way it is structured (starting count, key count, and an unbalanced set of tag numbers). It’s an ideal first counting system, and you may never have to leave it behind.
Спасибо за подробный ответ, Кен. Я всегда думал, что каунтеры играют более агрессивно, чем келли, из-за того, что очень высокие показатели встречаются редко. Тогда я понимал, что лучше всего делать максимальную ставку на TC 4 или 5. Дон Шлезингер, например, играет очень агрессивно, когда его единицы увеличиваются до двух, когда TC немного возрастает. Разве это не нормальный спред для контры? Рекомендуете ли вы играть половину Келли? Или это все личные предпочтения в зависимости от того, насколько высоким вы хотите видеть свой ROR.
Спред Шлезингера, о котором вы упомянули, вполне нормален. Оптимальные спреды обычно позволяют сделать верхнюю ставку на столе на уровне +5. То, как вы этого добьетесь, влияет на ваши результаты, но не так уж сильно. Любой темп, который приведет вас от небольшой ставки на <+1 to your top bet at +5 is going to perform pretty well. My comments about RA indices and Kelly are based on the fact that almost all players undercount their bankroll, considering only the cash they have on hand at the moment for gambling. In truth, their effective bankroll is much bigger; they can replenish funds from other income sources, and they probably also have other assets that could be counted. Once you get into a large enough bank that these factors don't overwhelm the accounting, you can probably safely afford to bet more than you can easily get away with anyway. If you still are in a place where these calculations have value for you, then yes, betting half Kelly is a pretty good target in my opinion. There's still plenty of excitement in that. 🙂
Почему некоторые из ваших индексов отличаются от индексов Вонга при использовании одних и тех же правил бенчмарка? Например, вы утверждаете, что индекс для хард 8 против 6 - это дабл на TC 3, в то время как Вонг говорит, что это на TC 1. Есть еще много примеров, которые сильно отличаются от ваших, можете объяснить, почему.
Составление индексов сложнее, чем кажется, и некоторые индексы являются близкими по значению в диапазоне чисел.
Я не знаю, какой процесс использовал Гейм-мастер при создании своих показателей, но небольшие различия в некоторых цифрах неудивительны. Он сказал, что его цифры - это индексы с поправкой на риск. (Мое мнение об индексах RA заключается в том, что для подавляющего большинства игроков они не подходят. Почти никто не играет достаточно близко к ставкам Келли, чтобы сделать их релевантными).
Я потратил много часов на точную настройку индексов в моем наборе продвинутых карт, и это прямые индексы, а не RA. Для этой игры мой индекс для удвоения 8v6 - TC +2, который находится как раз между Вонгом и GameMaster.
Хорошая новость заключается в том, что даже разница в 2 очка в некоторых цифрах не сильно повлияет на ваши результаты, потому что EV в таких близких по значению случаях незначительно варьируется от одного показателя к другому. Решения, в которых различия более заметны, как правило, также будут теми, где все согласны в пределах одного очка плюс-минус.
Here in the Mid-South and Gulf Coast – Dealers hit A,6 – they do not stand.
How does this process affect “doubling?”
For a basic strategy player, see the Стратегический двигатель for the correct plays when the dealer hits soft 17.
If you’re asking how the strategy variation index numbers change, many of the index numbers are the same between the 6D S17 game and the 6D H17 game.
Most of the few differences are only a single point here and there.
The most important index change between the games is 12v6. In the S17 game, the index is -1. (Stand at -1 or higher.) In the H17 game, the dealer is more likely to bust with a six showing, and the 12v6 index falls all the way to -4. (Stand at -4 or higher.)
My Карты продвинутой стратегии have optimized index numbers for all of these games.
Ken Smith, do you sell the individual advanced strategy card for 6 deck blackjack where the dealer hits on S17? I can’t find it as one of your individual cards and don’t have any interest in purchasing a full set of 6 to get 5 I don’t need.
Sorry, I don’t currently sell the advanced cards individually. My entire stock is already packaged in sets.
I found it available on a different site. Thanks!
I am a fairly successful speed count player switching over to the Hi Low system. I see that the Hi Low system is much more powerful system. In many of the variation decisions it is unclear in several cases if the count is true or running. Please advise if possible. Also I am an Atlantic City BJ player with 8 decks. Are the above rules almost the same as 6 decks?
Michael
The strategy indexes are all for true count. The only time you can use the running count is for the decision of 16vT where the index number is 0. (A true count of 0 or more is the same as a running count of 0 or more.)
You can safely use the same strategy and index numbers between 6 and 8 decks.