Sonny said:
I don't get it. That sounds like -EV to me:
$10*0.987 - $1000*0.013
$9.87 - $13 = -$3.13
EV = -3.13%
That’s worse than baccarat, casino war, and several craps bets.
-Sonny-
Actually I probably didn't do a very good job of making more clear that a "session" was defined as the winning of 10 units using a cancellation system with a 1000 unit roll. So u would win 98.7% of the sessions.
I think a "session" probably averaged betting 20 trials or so with betting on average 220 units or so. Maybe more.
In other words one wagered alot more than the way u are assuming.
I believe it was for a pass line bet on craps. So I guess 1,41%. So nowhere near a 3% HA game. But still negative, like u say, which is really the only point here.
Another point is, with a modest goal, one really can win a very large percentage of the time.
U might be up 6700 units and made 14000 passes of the dice before u'd expect ur first wipeout. Not sure of math on that one lol.
But not bad, perhaps, for a guy who goes to Vegas twice a year for a few days.
Aside to SCMC - u sure u want ScottH on ur team lol.