try and be an idiot

[Kasi]

yea a lot of ups and downs like they say..... but anyway great practice counting!
so far 623 hands,
316 negative or zero count
307 positive count (amazingly, wow penetration is great!)
103 hands at tc=1
104 hands at tc=2
50 hands at tc=3
29 hands at tc=4
8 hands at tc =5
12 hands at tc =6
nothin higher.........
i update your negative balance as red in color.

Did I gather from that other post that you two are theoretically playing identical games in identical ways?

Either way, is there something to measure results against?

Let's see some of that EV and variance crap

This "I played 600 hands and I won or lost some money" is weak :grin:

Then you guys can appreciate the rich irony that the best case-study of "how it's really done" happened in the Voodoo section lol

 

[sagefr0g]

Did I gather from that other post that you two are theoretically playing identical games in identical ways?

these are the rules & regulations:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=76717&postcount=25

Either way, is there something to measure results against?

this is the closest sim i could come up with for measurement stat's:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=76684&postcount=17

Let's see some of that EV and variance crap
This "I played 600 hands and I won or lost some money" is weak :grin:

might need your guidance and expertise on that. i've got on a hand by hand basis Bankroll, Bet, RC, TC, hand composition ,Split/DD, W/L
in excell. 879 hands so far and growing.... see snippet below....

Then you guys can appreciate the rich irony that the best case-study of "how it's really done" happened in the Voodoo section lol

yeah anectdotal as it is. great practice though.
maybe the next contest will be fuzzy count ala the poisonous fr0g vs fuzzy bet ala ferocious Kasi the enigmatic one vs nth degree complexity count jack the ghostrider jackson.

 

[Kasi]

this is the closest sim i could come up with for measurement stat's:

Ah - a yardstick.

Since BJ is a game of Blood, Sweat and Tears, as we recently learned, I just had to listen to the song "You've made me so Very Happy" lol.

Anyway - plugging in the freq and adv and sd's from your post I'm close on alot of the numbers. Is there any chance, would you know, your sim is assuming about 70 hands an hour instead of the 100 like I'm used to assuming?

I'm getting an avg bet unit of 2.173 vs 2.172 units. An EV of 0f .939% vs .935%. A DI of 5.35 vs DI of 5.33 and a SCORE of 28.67 vs 28.44 and a ROR of 24.51% vs 24.6%. A SD per round of 3.811 units vs 3.809 units. None of which I'm going to worry about. Your frequencies add up to more than 1 which also happens in sims and could possibly explain the small discrepancies. My main problems seem to be with hourly stuff. (win rate in $'s/hr and SD in $/hr). It only seems explainable by perhaps some number of players at the table thereby reducing number of hands played per hour?

Never used Norm's CVDATA products so I'm not totally sure what I'm looking at.

But, free plug, perhaps more likely to turn someone off than on, I absolutely love CVBJ and have for years.

Anyway, I'm in this to learn too with an ultimate goal of showing a methodology of what's necessary to allow anyone being able to measure actual vs expected from a sim plan.

I'm assuming a $5K roll with a $10 unit. Any chnace you know the hands per hour played assumption under your shown plan before we go further?

If not, I'm gonna have to assume 70 hands/per hour to measure result on an horly basis. Or, come to think of it, I'll just base stuff on number of hands actually played regardless. That should work too I think

 

[sagefr0g]

Ah - a yardstick.

Since BJ is a game of Blood, Sweat and Tears, as we recently learned, I just had to listen to the song "You've made me so Very Happy" lol.

yup a yardstick but don't get to happy cause you can still "Go Down Gambling" - Blood Sweat & Tears
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LzqRXjBx_E&feature=related

Anyway - plugging in the freq and adv and sd's from your post I'm close on alot of the numbers. Is there any chance, would you know, your sim is assuming about 70 hands an hour instead of the 100 like I'm used to assuming?

:yikes: uhhmm you know your scarin the crap outa me now right? lol. right on the money! i mean yeah that's exactly how many hands per hour i had the sim set for. i set it at 70hands/hour since it's a seven player table and i just couldn't see getting a hundred hands per hour. it's a canned sim and it's really for seven players. where jack-the ghostrider-jackson and i are supposed to be going up against a three player game and well i've been spreading to two hands in positive counts. so that sim is off by the number of players and number of hands played at positive counts. my version of CVCX you got to set it at either play all counts two hands or just one hand.
thought i'd better confess all that before you figured it out for yourself lol.

I'm getting an avg bet unit of 2.173 vs 2.172 units. An EV of 0f .939% vs .935%. A DI of 5.35 vs DI of 5.33 and a SCORE of 28.67 vs 28.44 and a ROR of 24.51% vs 24.6%. A SD per round of 3.811 units vs 3.809 units. None of which I'm going to worry about. Your frequencies add up to more than 1 which also happens in sims and could possibly explain the small discrepancies. My main problems seem to be with hourly stuff. (win rate in $'s/hr and SD in $/hr). It only seems explainable by perhaps some number of players at the table thereby reducing number of hands played per hour?

Never used Norm's CVDATA products so I'm not totally sure what I'm looking at.

But, free plug, perhaps more likely to turn someone off than on, I absolutely love CVBJ and have for years.

Anyway, I'm in this to learn too with an ultimate goal of showing a methodology of what's necessary to allow anyone being able to measure actual vs expected from a sim plan.

I'm assuming a $5K roll with a $10 unit. Any chnace you know the hands per hour played assumption under your shown plan before we go further?

If not, I'm gonna have to assume 70 hands/per hour to measure result on an horly basis. Or, come to think of it, I'll just base stuff on number of hands actually played regardless. That should work too I think

well i just hope the factoid of me playing two hands in positive counts and the actual number of players we are using doesn't present a problem.
but if you can do it by the numer of hands actually played maybe that'll help.
below is the sim re-done for 100hands/hr. and i included a chapterx snippet i thought you might find interesting.
edit: and yes Norm's products cvbj & cvcx are excellent. and i just kind of thought of this. i hope i'm not in trouble over reproducing these screen shots.
Norm i appologize if i'm pushing my luck doing this.

 

[jack.jackson]

Nice. Im learning some new as we progress as well.

Mr. Poisonousfrog; I was just curious if that was your own betting ramp? Also are there times you go from a Min bet to a Maxbet from 1 round to the next? or do you ramp it, with the count?

Also, Should I post my results for shoe #90 on the next deadline date(4/29)?

Or should I wait until session 3 of 10(5/11)? Your call sagethepoisonousfrog.

Its funny that i was the one who didnt stick to the gameplan...lol

 

[sagefr0g]

Nice. Im learning some new as we progress as well.

Mr. Poisonousfrog; I was just curious if that was your own betting ramp? Also are there times you go from a Min bet to a Maxbet from 1 round to the next? or do you ramp it, with the count?

Also, Should I post my results for shoe #90 on the next deadline date(4/29)?

Or should I wait until session 3 of 10(5/11)? Your call sagethepoisonousfrog.

Its funny that i was the one who didnt stick to the gameplan...lol

i'm learning to and getting better counting and betting but i'm gettin my a$$ kicked lol.
yes i'm trying to mimic the sim's bet ramp except i'm going to two hands a lot and betting the 150% total between the hands of what the bet would be for one hand.
i'm ramping my bets with the count or shall i say i'm trying too lol, i'm sure from looking at my logs that i'm missing the mark quite a bit.
hey jack-the ghostrider-jackson you can just post as you please.
maybe i won't look though lol as it might make me lose heart. i'm at present in a sinking ship it feels like lol. but i'm still just playing the five shoes a day so i'll be posting my results on the deadline.

 

[Kasi]

yes i'm trying to mimic the sim's bet ramp except....

Shame shame shame lol.

Once you say "except" it's a different plan now lol.

Still, better you confessed now, my son. Say 54 Hail Mary's for deviating from plan. And I'm not even Catholic lol.

Anyway - while I do get real close to the hourly numbers now that you posted it but it doesn't really matter. Ultimately, everything's based on a per round thing anyway.

So the hardwork has been done. Actually easy since Norm's stuff obliterates the need for my spreadsheet that only just re-calculates the top stuff anyway but he does it for you.

So, ignoring any "except" stuff lol, the basic stuff of actual vs expected from Norm's numbers is:

Norm says your avg bet is 2.172 units * $10=$21.72 avg bet. So EV after 823 hands= $21.73*823*.00935 (his overall adv % for the game) = $167.

Stan Dev per round in units is 3.809. Times a $10 unit= $38.09. So $38.09* the square root of 823 = $1093.

So a 1 Stan Dev result would be between $167+$1093 ($1261) on the high side vs $167-$1093 (-$925) on the low side.

Two Stan Dev are twice one SD. So from -$2018 to +$2153.

That's how easy it is.

It's so easy I wish someone could explain to me why any serious player would not do it.
Assuming no "except when I spread a little or bet different here and there" stuff lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

Shame shame shame lol.

Once you say "except" it's a different plan now lol.

Still, better you confessed now, my son. Say 54 Hail Mary's for deviating from plan. And I'm not even Catholic lol.

Anyway - while I do get real close to the hourly numbers now that you posted it but it doesn't really matter. Ultimately, everything's based on a per round thing anyway.

So the hardwork has been done. Actually easy since Norm's stuff obliterates the need for my spreadsheet that only just re-calculates the top stuff anyway but he does it for you.

So, ignoring any "except" stuff lol, the basic stuff of actual vs expected from Norm's numbers is:

Norm says your avg bet is 2.172 units * $10=$21.72 avg bet. So EV after 823 hands= $21.73*823*.00935 (his overall adv % for the game) = $167.

Stan Dev per round in units is 3.809. Times a $10 unit= $38.09. So $38.09* the square root of 823 = $1093.

So a 1 Stan Dev result would be between $167+$1093 ($1261) on the high side vs $167-$1093 (-$925) on the low side.

Two Stan Dev are twice one SD. So from -$2018 to +$2153.

That's how easy it is.

It's so easy I wish someone could explain to me why any serious player would not do it.
Assuming no "except when I spread a little or bet different here and there" stuff lol.

got it. i think.
kinda like this stuff:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9746
well anyway. i know i blew it. looks like my average bet has been $16.43 for the 879 hands i've logged in excell thus far. 1.64 avg unit/hand .... that's because of the 'except' stuff i've committed. but i guess i can see with that sorta outlook how far i've strayed from the ideal.
then again i guess i could build a sim that does fit my sinful actions lol.
edit:... thing is though still to really have a good idea what's up you oughta have in a much more substantial number of hands... right?

 

[Kasi]

i know i blew it. looks like my average bet has been $16.43 for the 879 hands i've logged in excell thus far. 1.64 avg unit/hand .... that's because of the 'except' stuff i've committed. but i guess i can see with that sorta outlook how far i've strayed from the ideal.

Well that's the whole point of having a plan to compare results against

Maybe your avg bet is lower because of some "except" stuff - fear of putting big bet out when called for perhaps. Maybe it's because you have had a disproportionate number of hands that have not yet called for a big bet yet but you've been betting perfectly. So that could explain it.

At least it gets one thinking as to why deviations are occurring - bad counting? bad betting? bad luck?. Am I really playing the game I simmed (pen etc)?

Maybe with the info that CVBJ or whatever it is is giving you, it's possible you can pinpoint stuff even more. Like can it isolate avg bet at each TC? Are the proportions of TC's that are actually occuring in line with the sim's frequencies? Stuff like that you probably would never know in real life at a casino so take advantage of it.

It may even be possible, with software like that, to retroactively figure out what results would have been without the mistakes.

For better or worse, at least things aren't in a totally meaningless vaccuum anymore.

I mean, really, the best thing you could find out, even if it seems like the worst thing, is that you find out you need more practice. To me that's alot better than spending a lifetime cursing the incredibly unlucky fate a perfect counter, that we all think we are, can have lol.

By all means, if your "except" stuff occurs often enough and consistently enough and you know it, sim that and see what to expect! Pretty much exactly why we get sim software. Maybe you just find out that that's a plan you really wouldn't have chosen to play, especially compared to the one you started off with. If so, even if not, maybe you learned something and know a little more than you did before.

Edited to add - you're right 8-900 hands isn't alot but as you can see it's enough to get you thinking anyway. Perhaps resolving even more to stick to the plan, etc. Analyze the next 900 as if they were the first 900 etc.

 

[sagefr0g]

Well that's the whole point of having a plan to compare results against

Maybe your avg bet is lower because of some "except" stuff - fear of putting big bet out when called for perhaps. Maybe it's because you have had a disproportionate number of hands that have not yet called for a big bet yet but you've been betting perfectly. So that could explain it.

At least it gets one thinking as to why deviations are occurring - bad counting? bad betting? bad luck?. Am I really playing the game I simmed (pen etc)?

Maybe with the info that CVBJ or whatever it is is giving you, it's possible you can pinpoint stuff even more. Like can it isolate avg bet at each TC? Are the proportions of TC's that are actually occuring in line with the sim's frequencies? Stuff like that you probably would never know in real life at a casino so take advantage of it.

It may even be possible, with software like that, to retroactively figure out what results would have been without the mistakes.

For better or worse, at least things aren't in a totally meaningless vaccuum anymore.

I mean, really, the best thing you could find out, even if it seems like the worst thing, is that you find out you need more practice. To me that's alot better than spending a lifetime cursing the incredibly unlucky fate a perfect counter, that we all think we are, can have lol.

By all means, if your "except" stuff occurs often enough and consistently enough and you know it, sim that and see what to expect! Pretty much exactly why we get sim software. Maybe you just find out that that's a plan you really wouldn't have chosen to play, especially compared to the one you started off with. If so, even if not, maybe you learned something and know a little more than you did before.

Edited to add - you're right 8-900 hands isn't alot but as you can see it's enough to get you thinking anyway. Perhaps resolving even more to stick to the plan, etc. Analyze the next 900 as if they were the first 900 etc.

right on.
yeah i can from the logs imported into excell determine things like tc frequency up to present and average bets for a given tc. get an idea of how close to the expected i'm getting. could be an indicator of how it is that results are as they are at present. might indicate something way out of line or not. such as one thing i'm realizing when going over my logs is the disparity between how i 'calculate' the true count and how cvbj calculates it. cvbj calls a true count of for example say TC=1 (or what ever) while i'm still considering it (by my calculation & pack estimation) not quite there yet. so i apparently haven't matched cvbj's true count calculation to how i do it or vice-a-versa. gotta work on that or my logs have little meaning. then there is the question of how the cvcx sim does it, that i don't really know. the thing about truncating, flooring, rounding deck resolution. lol my whole little empire is falling down all around me.
so now i guess i'm gonna try and resolve these issues and still get in my scheduled play/practice time. by the time this battle of the millenium is over maybe i'll get something right.
anyway if i get together an excell sheet that can manage some of these considerations then it or something like it might prove useful for real casino experience records.

 

[Kasi]

That's another good point, another one of those underlying assumptions one must be aware of. If rounding a TC+1.5 would be a TC+2. If flooring a TC of 1.9 would still be a TC+1. And indexes would be based on the same thing.

Like in that pic way above, nice start btw, losing 9 of 10 is pretty impressive lol, I guess if you agreed with it's count you would have been betting 20 at +1 and $50 at +2. So always underbetting with $10 at +1 and only 20 at +2 could have an effect over time.

You could probably figure it out possibly by counting the cards and seeing what it calls a 1.7 kind of thing.

Feel free to send me anything if you think I can help. That stuff you're using probably generates more data in graphs, tables etc than I can imagine.

 

[sagefr0g]

.......

Like in that pic way above, nice start btw, losing 9 of 10 is pretty impressive

lol, i can make it rain too, like you know if you just washed your car or teeing up on the golfcourse sort of stuff. got this little cloud that follows me around.
then there is my way with the stock market, inflation and a host of other phenomenon i can trigger just by getting out of bed in the morning.

lol, I guess if you agreed with it's count you would have been betting 20 at +1 and $50 at +2. So always underbetting with $10 at +1 and only 20 at +2 could have an effect over time.

yep i've been noticing that as well, happens that way quite a bit. likely a short term affect i guess. but this contest is only gonna go for 300 shoes. if i last that long. which isn't looking very likely at the moment. lol.

You could probably figure it out possibly by counting the cards and seeing what it calls a 1.7 kind of thing.

i was thinking along those lines and i need to take a look at how i've got cvbj configured for calculating true counts. i didn't really care so much about all that when i was practicing the fuzzy count approach but it really matters for practicing orthodox counting.

Feel free to send me anything if you think I can help. That stuff you're using probably generates more data in graphs, tables etc than I can imagine.

good, yeah i think i will but i'll let it collect more data first. and try and tweak a sim to fit what the heck i'm doing and get this true count thing straightened out. but thanks and yeah by sorting the data one way or another and inserting some graphs there could be some interesting abstracts of what happened.

 

[jack.jackson]

Is this rounding or truncating

That's another good point, another one of those underlying assumptions one must be aware of. If rounding a TC+1.5 would be a TC+2. If flooring a TC of 1.9 would still be a TC+1. And indexes would be based on the same thing.

Say theres 5 decks remaining. Heres how I play it.

Examples

1.My RC is +4, I therefore I make my TC 0

2. My RC is between +5-+9=TC+1

3. My RC is between +10-+14=TC+2

4.My RC is +15=TC+3

Whats this method considered? Do you know sage?

 

[sagefr0g]

Say theres 5 decks remaining. Heres how I play it.

Examples

1.My RC is +4, I therefore I make my TC 0

2. My RC is between +5-+9=TC+1

3. My RC is between +10-+14=TC+2

4.My RC is +15=TC+3

Whats this method considered? Do you know sage?

to me i think that's rounding. by the way that's pretty much how i intend to do it when i play. but i'm really not to swift on the terminology and i keep forgetting what's what when we all refer to truncating, flooring and rounding.
but anyway here is what QFIT has to say about it:
http://www.qfit.com/CalculatingTrueCounts.htm

 

[Kasi]

Say theres 5 decks remaining. Heres how I play it.Whats this method considered? Do you know sage?

I'd call it flooring or truncating, They are the same thing in positive counts lol.

If you truncated -0.9 would be 0 and so would +.9. So that would basically cover a range twice as wide.

In neg counts I think flooring always goes left. -0.1 is -1.

I'm not sure how big a deal it really is - but I guess it's nice to know what the sim or your index numbers are based on. So when you know "I'm less than 2" you don't have to worry if it's greater than 1.5 or not. You make the +1 index play kind of thing. If RC is +6 in 6 decks all you need to know is more than 3 decks remain since it doesn't matter if it's 3.5 or 4 or 4.5 lol.

 

[jack.jackson]

Hey sage,

When we reach the Midway half-point(#150) lets try the card eating tactic.

Meaning Instead of a total of four-hands on the table at once, when we spread to two-hands. We will take 2 of the 3 hands. In effect having only 1 ghost player.(One of the ghost player hands actually becomes ours) Sound good?

 

[sagefr0g]

Hey sage,

When we reach the Midway half-point(#150) lets try the card eating tactic.

Meaning Instead of a total of four-hands on the table at once, when we spread to two-hands. We will take 2 of the 3 hands. In effect having only 1 ghost player.(One of the ghost player hands actually becomes ours) Sound good?

now hold on jack-the ghostrider-jackson. i've fallen from grace once. shouldn't we ask the holey one (Kasi) to anoint this proposal? lol.

 

[jack.jackson]

10-4

now hold on jack-the ghostrider-jackson. i've fallen from grace once. shouldn't we ask the holey one (Kasi) to anoint this proposal? lol.

I was reading about it, in blackjack in color today and stumbled on card-eaters(tried to put the link in but couldnt figure it out ) and tho, it wouldnt be a realistic condition,(but could be) I would be curious to see if it makes a difference. But as always, its just an option. (Or possibly theres an option you may want to add or subtract, at the 1/2 way mark)We'll see when we get there.

Lets see what Kasi-the-Kid-dynamite has to say about it.

 

[sagefr0g]

I was reading about it, in blackjack in color today and stumbled on card-eaters(tried to put the link in but couldnt figure it out ) and tho, it wouldnt be a realistic condition,(but could be) I would be curious to see if it makes a difference. But as always, its just an option. (Or possibly theres an option you may want to add or subtract, at the 1/2 way mark)We'll see when we get there.

Lets see what Kasi-the-Kid-dynamite has to say about it.

hey action jackson was it this link: http://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration11.htm
well anyway if you wanna play it like that on the ghost hands thats cool with me. i think i'll stick with what i've been doing because i think if i stay consistant with my strategy Kasi may be able to analyze how it's been going relative to some consistant game plan. i might learn something lol. but i think it would be cool to have some kind of free for all no holds barred contest in a cage sort of thing once this ones over.

 

[jack.jackson]

hey action jackson was it this link: (Dead link: http://www.blackjackincolor.com/players10.3.htm)
well anyway if you wanna play it like that on the ghost hands thats cool with me. i think i'll stick with what i've been doing because i think if i stay consistant with my strategy Kasi may be able to analyze how it's been going relative to some consistant game plan. i might learn something lol. but i think it would be cool to have some kind of free for all no holds barred contest in a cage sort of thing once this ones over.

No. It was..... effect on other players....10.3Bad card eating[..... can you put that link in?tx