Weekend Warriors II
- Thread starter jack.jackson
- Start date
k_c said:
....
Your welcome. I do the best I can to stick to basics and keep from falling overboard into the
voodoo abyss.
Your welcome. I do the best I can to stick to basics and keep from falling overboard into the
voodoo abyss.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94931&postcount=51
inquiring minds would like to know.
how many rounds would this many shuffles
13897583953886915916997900322245344374849047779518 415
9840824494092122906083362574050000000
represent anyway? ball park answer would be ok. lmao
sagefr0g said:
absolutely, jump in there, we need more hands. :cool2:
just got lucky. lmao
just got lucky. lmao
I thought it was either a typo or maybe was in dollars rather than units. I think we agree on what is expected based on spread etc.
I guess maybe you could use min unit to express win rate but I'm just used to using avg-bet unit. So, for actual win rate, I'd probably take the $12K win and divide by the 1.668 avg unit, or $16.66 avg bet and use that to get a win %age.
I agree - it's just that I have the feeling some of those win-rate graphs are maybe generated by CVBJ rather than CVCX and I think CVBJ is not consistent with CVCX in that CVBJ counts splits as 2 hands rather than 1 round but CVCX would count it as 1 round. I could be wrong on both or either lol. I have no idea whether individual reported results are "hands" or "rounds".
Likewise when avg $ bet is stated I have no idea whether that is based on rounds or hands. But, you know, not too many actually care about this cr*p, maybe rightly so lol.
It's like they say they wager $10K in a -0.5% HA game and think their EV is -$50.
I've never tried to figure out an avg TC count. I guess you're implying it'd be nice if it's 0? And maybe also implying in your case a flat-betting BS player would also be below EV as "luck" would have it? The few hands I've played in these threads, I guess just out of habit and because it's one of the few things I can do, I always know where I stand had I flat-betted $1 every hand. Not that I know what to make of the BS results compared to CC results lol. Do you perchance know how many units up or down a flat-betting BS would be in what you're doing? Not that it would matter anyway lol but I always liked to compare if my "voodoo", on the internet in a constant -EV game, or my "AP" stuff here, sad as it is, was exceding a flat-betting BS player or not.
Well the avg bet might be 1.1 with doubling and splitting but I don't know about the SD. I doubt if it's worth it but I'm not you. Sometimes I just work backwards assuming like the 41000 are "hands", not "rounds", and subtract an expected number of split hands, usually a wild-ass guess anyway depending on number of re-splits allowed etc, and see what happens.
Hey you seemed to get the same ROR anyway so whatever you're doing seems about right
Ahhh, the welcoming black void of voodoo, always beckoning me from afar like the Sirens calling. Yet so feared by the Warriors here, despite it's 100% ROR and certain death in the abyss, I've been banned from employing it here, more specifically being allowed to bet with any amount I choose anytime I want with the same $10K starting roll as if it were just another CC system like Hi-Lo, KO etc but with a bigger spread and no indexes and no CC lol.
Even The Wise One, expert CC as he has proven beyond doubt when he chooses to, hears the irresistible dulcet tones from afar whispering in his ear just "fuzzy bet" this one :grin:
I guess maybe you could use min unit to express win rate but I'm just used to using avg-bet unit. So, for actual win rate, I'd probably take the $12K win and divide by the 1.668 avg unit, or $16.66 avg bet and use that to get a win %age.
I agree - it's just that I have the feeling some of those win-rate graphs are maybe generated by CVBJ rather than CVCX and I think CVBJ is not consistent with CVCX in that CVBJ counts splits as 2 hands rather than 1 round but CVCX would count it as 1 round. I could be wrong on both or either lol. I have no idea whether individual reported results are "hands" or "rounds".
Likewise when avg $ bet is stated I have no idea whether that is based on rounds or hands. But, you know, not too many actually care about this cr*p, maybe rightly so lol.
It's like they say they wager $10K in a -0.5% HA game and think their EV is -$50.
I've never tried to figure out an avg TC count. I guess you're implying it'd be nice if it's 0? And maybe also implying in your case a flat-betting BS player would also be below EV as "luck" would have it? The few hands I've played in these threads, I guess just out of habit and because it's one of the few things I can do, I always know where I stand had I flat-betted $1 every hand. Not that I know what to make of the BS results compared to CC results lol. Do you perchance know how many units up or down a flat-betting BS would be in what you're doing? Not that it would matter anyway lol but I always liked to compare if my "voodoo", on the internet in a constant -EV game, or my "AP" stuff here, sad as it is, was exceding a flat-betting BS player or not.
Well the avg bet might be 1.1 with doubling and splitting but I don't know about the SD. I doubt if it's worth it but I'm not you. Sometimes I just work backwards assuming like the 41000 are "hands", not "rounds", and subtract an expected number of split hands, usually a wild-ass guess anyway depending on number of re-splits allowed etc, and see what happens.
Hey you seemed to get the same ROR anyway so whatever you're doing seems about right
k_c said:
Your welcome. I do the best I can to stick to basics and keep from falling overboard into the voodoo abyss.
voodoo abyss.
Even The Wise One, expert CC as he has proven beyond doubt when he chooses to, hears the irresistible dulcet tones from afar whispering in his ear just "fuzzy bet" this one :grin:
Sure it's been considered lol. More likely is JJ and Wise One have been skimming their wins betting with bigger spreads than team rules allow
or understating their time played just so they look like heroes :grin:
Absolutely join in - who cares what they are doing or not doing. Prove it to yourself. That's pretty much the point anyway - learn what to expect from betting how, decide how accurately you employ your chosen betting system, etc.
Some are using KO, some Hi-Lo and I'm never quite sure what JJ is doing lol.
Best would be to run or find a Hi Opt I sim so you and us all know what to expect.
If you can't, maybe someone here can for you with a $10K roll and $10 min unit for this game playing-all heads-up just to make it sort of comparable. I'm a little vague on Hi Opt 1, use of indexes, does it maybe side-count Aces too? Will you be? First step you have to know what to tell the sim you are doing lol.
Not quite as good would be to just play and post and probably have your results compared to the generic Hi-Lo game here. But, good chance, probably close enough lol anyway.
Fool the "team", fool yourself. If you want to bet $1000 on a hand and win it, and think you are some kind of card-counter just because you are $'s ahead, maybe even right where you think you are supposed to be $-wise had you been betting to "plan" which called for a max bet of $80, maybe even because you at least bet it when the count was +TC 15, .......- I hope you see the implications as to how to judge your CC skill after-the-fact.
Do stuff like that in the first 100 hands, post your 1000$ win in 100 hands say, and we all know you likely "cheated" as such results are pretty darn unlikely. But who cares. It's not a contest of who wins most money.
Sorry, just my nature to ramble on mindlessly.
What software will you be playing on? The trainer here? Physical cards at home? Norm's stuff? Whatever - hang in there. We'll get you set up lol.
Heck, if you don't like the DD game here, just specify what game you want to play - maybe the game closest to you you think you will be playing most often.
This team is in compliance with all Federal standards discriminating against no team member based on rules of game, count system, total roll, spread used, pen, use of indexes, number of players at table, back-counting, wonging-out or playing all, mid-shoe entry allowed or not, etc.
Just fill out the form - only required here, not in real-life :grin:
or understating their time played just so they look like heroes :grin:
Absolutely join in - who cares what they are doing or not doing. Prove it to yourself. That's pretty much the point anyway - learn what to expect from betting how, decide how accurately you employ your chosen betting system, etc.
Some are using KO, some Hi-Lo and I'm never quite sure what JJ is doing lol.
Best would be to run or find a Hi Opt I sim so you and us all know what to expect.
If you can't, maybe someone here can for you with a $10K roll and $10 min unit for this game playing-all heads-up just to make it sort of comparable. I'm a little vague on Hi Opt 1, use of indexes, does it maybe side-count Aces too? Will you be? First step you have to know what to tell the sim you are doing lol.
Not quite as good would be to just play and post and probably have your results compared to the generic Hi-Lo game here. But, good chance, probably close enough lol anyway.
Fool the "team", fool yourself. If you want to bet $1000 on a hand and win it, and think you are some kind of card-counter just because you are $'s ahead, maybe even right where you think you are supposed to be $-wise had you been betting to "plan" which called for a max bet of $80, maybe even because you at least bet it when the count was +TC 15, .......- I hope you see the implications as to how to judge your CC skill after-the-fact.
Do stuff like that in the first 100 hands, post your 1000$ win in 100 hands say, and we all know you likely "cheated" as such results are pretty darn unlikely. But who cares. It's not a contest of who wins most money.
Sorry, just my nature to ramble on mindlessly.
What software will you be playing on? The trainer here? Physical cards at home? Norm's stuff? Whatever - hang in there. We'll get you set up lol.
Heck, if you don't like the DD game here, just specify what game you want to play - maybe the game closest to you you think you will be playing most often.
This team is in compliance with all Federal standards discriminating against no team member based on rules of game, count system, total roll, spread used, pen, use of indexes, number of players at table, back-counting, wonging-out or playing all, mid-shoe entry allowed or not, etc.
Just fill out the form - only required here, not in real-life :grin:
Yeah the flat betting BS player is +51 units after 1000 shoes/13018 rounds. Average pre-deal EV=-.6547% as compared to a full shoe EV=-.5416%. The average Hi-Lo TC=-.23 says that on balance more high cards than low were dealt and that would benefit the flat bettor while at the same time bring down the average pre-deal EV. Blackjack's a fickle game. You want the count to rise so you can raise the bet but if the count goes up you have an increased chance of losing. If instead the count keeps going down you have an increased chance of winning. :devil: So far for both WWI and WWII average TC has for the most part tended to be negative. I wonder if this is a trend or just one of those things.
sagefr0g said:
just if you ever figure this one out:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94931&postcount=51
inquiring minds would like to know.
how many rounds would this many shuffles
13897583953886915916997900322245344374849047779518 415
9840824494092122906083362574050000000
represent anyway? ball park answer would be ok. lmao
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=94931&postcount=51
inquiring minds would like to know.
how many rounds would this many shuffles
13897583953886915916997900322245344374849047779518 415
9840824494092122906083362574050000000
represent anyway? ball park answer would be ok. lmao
This equals 104!/32!/8!/8!/8!/8!/8!/8!/8!/8!/8!*13
No,no, not at all. If you check my Stat graph, you'll be able to tell, Ive played every hand and all Maxbets are displayed.
If I bet anything over 50$ it will be displayed on the graph. Now since my last up-date, I got a little rattled and steamed a little, (okay alot). Im disappointed to announce that I did make 21/ 500$ maxbets, in this last session. I was doing so good, until I tried steaming:sad:
So heres what I'll do:
1) Ill subtract the 3000$ I won with 500 Maxbets and then simply add 300$ as if they were 50$ bets, to the scoreboard.
6,652$-3000=3,652+300=3,952$
Dollars/3,952$
Hands/25,155
Im going to start a new graph, and add it seperately, to what I already have, cuz im so disappointed in myself and that im in need of a fresh start.
Ive been having a hard time dealing with this the last couple of days. I cant believe how I could blow such a nice lead. I just strarted betting 50$ every hand and got smashed. But never once have I cheated
I know, this is inexcusable. Not even I, am immune to getting a little rattled from time to time. Im so ashamed of myself.
Well, your a better man than I am. I guess I started getting burnt after 23,000 hands and attempted to snatch a few lucky 50$ bets. Bad mistake....bad mistake
If I bet anything over 50$ it will be displayed on the graph. Now since my last up-date, I got a little rattled and steamed a little, (okay alot). Im disappointed to announce that I did make 21/ 500$ maxbets, in this last session. I was doing so good, until I tried steaming:sad:
So heres what I'll do:
1) Ill subtract the 3000$ I won with 500 Maxbets and then simply add 300$ as if they were 50$ bets, to the scoreboard.
6,652$-3000=3,652+300=3,952$
Dollars/3,952$
Hands/25,155
Im going to start a new graph, and add it seperately, to what I already have, cuz im so disappointed in myself and that im in need of a fresh start.
Ive been having a hard time dealing with this the last couple of days. I cant believe how I could blow such a nice lead. I just strarted betting 50$ every hand and got smashed. But never once have I cheated
I know, this is inexcusable. Not even I, am immune to getting a little rattled from time to time. Im so ashamed of myself.
k_c said:
Your welcome. I do the best I can to stick to basics and keep from falling overboard into the voodoo abyss.
voodoo abyss.
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aslan said:
lol Yup, that sure could happen. I've been playing along and whammo my computer went down--have to start over unless I could remember my winnings/losings and # of hands. But these guys wouldn't do it on purpose, cept maybe Sage or jj or or Kasi, maybe...naw, even they wouldn't do it.
Lets put it this way, if I was here to impress others, it wouldnt be hard to make up stories about the thousands i've taken the Casinos for. Or even dig, my other PC out, so I could change my username. Hell, maybe I would even take the time to proof read and edit my post's from time to time. Its easy enough to disagree with someone, but the hard part is agreeing.
The whole purpose of WW2, is to be yourself, where anything flies.
self righteous indignation--- i'm froggin PO'd
jj's a dang gone pirate captn. i'm pure as the 'drivin snow' :angel:
i never once bet above the 1:10 spread. $50 is been my max. i'm innocent i tell ya. :cool2:
yap, yap, yap
my life is an open book for all to see.
uhmm, erhh it was jus a little fuzzy bettin and a lil fuzzy countin i swear.:cat:
just check my stat's.......
forgive me papa for i have sinned.... :devil::joker::whip:
jj's a dang gone pirate captn. i'm pure as the 'drivin snow' :angel:
i never once bet above the 1:10 spread. $50 is been my max. i'm innocent i tell ya. :cool2:
yap, yap, yap
my life is an open book for all to see.
uhmm, erhh it was jus a little fuzzy bettin and a lil fuzzy countin i swear.:cat:
just check my stat's.......
forgive me papa for i have sinned.... :devil::joker::whip:
Attachments
I think Kasi, was just agreeing with sleight-of-hand. I understand how frusterated he might feel dealing with idiots like me. Technicality is his specialty, and it probably just drives him nuts to see a bunch of wild'o'hawgs trying to accomplish something without cause. Guess why canceler hasnt posted? Because he read another book on submarines.
Now how about a group hug.
ps. Hey kasi did you catch MIA part2?
Hey sage, Im like that pirate off of dodge-ball..lol
Because he read another book on submarines.Now how about a group hug.
ps. Hey kasi did you catch MIA part2?
Hey sage, Im like that pirate off of dodge-ball..lol
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big number for sure lol.
so but anyway about the big number of shuffles and even bigger numberof rounds and all and where a sim might do not nearly so many shuffles or rounds.
thing is at least there is the idea that there is balanced symmetry to the high and low cards in a deck of cards to begin with and then while any given shuffle may be unique in a whole lot of possible ways it's always just mixing up that symmetry and if it ever gets skewed there is always an equivalent but opposite skewedness possible on a one to one basis. so even though simulations are anectdotal (relatively speaking to the number of possible shuffles) it can be clearly shown that true count frequencies present a normal distribution for an impressive large number of rounds and shuffles.
and then it just seems logical to think or say that say if a shuffle is skewed one way one time that there is no reason to believe an equal and opposite skewed one won't show up sooner or later since it would seem reasonable that the probability of either one happening is equal and one's already happend so why not the other sort of thing.
so but it seems logical with respect to TC's frequencies and the probabilities of those frequencies presenting that the inhierent symmetry of high and low cards is going to have a guiding influence. to where the law of large numbers what ever that is, is going to play it's part. i guess it's almost as if the equivalent skewedness of what can happen for the symmetry can in an abstract sense be reduced to the idea of a coin flip. to where yep there is a potential for a lot of wierd skewdness to happen but as events happen over time the probability of that wierd skewdness becomes less and less likely. perhaps exponentially so? to where it would be hard to argue against the normal nature that simulations present.
and another thing that i guess would be part of the argument is how we learn basic strategy for instance. it's some number like around 550 plays or so that we typically memorize. so what ever the number it's like there is a limiting factor of how many right ways there are to play a given hand. then i guess if like your program can do is you take the composition state of where your at in the pack then there's a whole lot of more possibilities for the proper play.
but what ever it seems there is a limiting factor regarding playing strategy as well as the limiting factor of likely TC frequencies. that being the case i guess lends a sense of normalcy to what's going to happen even if there are so many potential ways a shuffle can happen. but at least maybe one could say that the large number of various possible shuffles opens up the possibility for a lot of luck.
just babbling on about all this cause it's interesting.
so but anyway about the big number of shuffles and even bigger numberof rounds and all and where a sim might do not nearly so many shuffles or rounds.
thing is at least there is the idea that there is balanced symmetry to the high and low cards in a deck of cards to begin with and then while any given shuffle may be unique in a whole lot of possible ways it's always just mixing up that symmetry and if it ever gets skewed there is always an equivalent but opposite skewedness possible on a one to one basis. so even though simulations are anectdotal (relatively speaking to the number of possible shuffles) it can be clearly shown that true count frequencies present a normal distribution for an impressive large number of rounds and shuffles.
and then it just seems logical to think or say that say if a shuffle is skewed one way one time that there is no reason to believe an equal and opposite skewed one won't show up sooner or later since it would seem reasonable that the probability of either one happening is equal and one's already happend so why not the other sort of thing.
so but it seems logical with respect to TC's frequencies and the probabilities of those frequencies presenting that the inhierent symmetry of high and low cards is going to have a guiding influence. to where the law of large numbers what ever that is, is going to play it's part. i guess it's almost as if the equivalent skewedness of what can happen for the symmetry can in an abstract sense be reduced to the idea of a coin flip. to where yep there is a potential for a lot of wierd skewdness to happen but as events happen over time the probability of that wierd skewdness becomes less and less likely. perhaps exponentially so? to where it would be hard to argue against the normal nature that simulations present.
and another thing that i guess would be part of the argument is how we learn basic strategy for instance. it's some number like around 550 plays or so that we typically memorize. so what ever the number it's like there is a limiting factor of how many right ways there are to play a given hand. then i guess if like your program can do is you take the composition state of where your at in the pack then there's a whole lot of more possibilities for the proper play.
but what ever it seems there is a limiting factor regarding playing strategy as well as the limiting factor of likely TC frequencies. that being the case i guess lends a sense of normalcy to what's going to happen even if there are so many potential ways a shuffle can happen. but at least maybe one could say that the large number of various possible shuffles opens up the possibility for a lot of luck.
just babbling on about all this cause it's interesting.