try and be an idiot

Looking for suggestions for the next contest.

Possibly considering a 2-man team approach; if we can get a couple more participants.

ps. Dont want sage on my team.....:laugh: just kidding

What it tells me is that you have to get lucky to be a successful card counter unless you're willing to wait until the LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLong run, which many of us are not. But where we quarrel, but its not really a quarrel per se, is that, if one understands this, then it only makes sense that if one wants to get lucky it is more likely to happen doing the count in a clear and precise manner than in doing the 'fuzzy" with its lack of fully-utilized mathematical underpinning. I say there's no quarrel because I know you agree. I think then that maybe you are weighing the downside of being clear and precise in one's approach (counting) and therefore WORKING HARD to make it happen, against the possibility of getting lucky with a fuzzy but far more enjoyable application of the same science with no real work involved. If we measure the enjoyment derived from fuzzy counting and its more relaxed and carefree approach in terms of entertainment dollars then maybe just maybe fuzzy counting is a superior approach to the traditional counting methods and can actually be shown to pay as much or more in converted dollar earnings. I think I just capitulated to the fuzzy camp. LOL View attachment 323

PS--Could be a few Blackjack books on the pile, too.

Have some ideas for the rules and conditions for the new contest.

6D/DAS/HSA/Nsr/H17/5/6pen


5$min/1-20spread/5K/1 ghost player/300 more shoes.

Tell me what you thonk(I mean think) sage?

Have some ideas for the rules and conditions for the new contest.

6D/DAS/HSA/Nsr/H17/5/6pen


5$min/1-20spread/5K/1 ghost player/300 more shoes.

Tell me what you thonk(I mean think) sage?

Try and be an idiot.............................
.............................The end.

......
But think, Wise One, if you had 9 more like you with $5k, you could expect 5 times your earnings with a low risk, reach the long run just as quickly since that wouldn't change with a larger roll and a larger unit size, I think, and double your every 50 hours. All a larger roll does is lower ROR - you still make the same amount of money per hand - if you had had a $100K roll you still would have finished down $2600 or whatever it was and your EV and stan dev wouldn't change either.

While that amount might seem devastating, it's completely to be expected. I know you know that. It's even something you/anyone knew or could have known before you played a single hand to help you decide if it's worth it or not.

And, to depress you further, I think your sim was at 70/hands/hr so your 5300hands would be alot more hours than 53 in a casino lol.

.......
If one was free to pretty much bet anything between $10-$100 anytime to any number of hands using different counts and side counts from time to time, I may as well have employed my various voo-doo money-management betting systems while counting but you guys wouldn't let me lol.
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Is it only me who sees the craziest stuff in "Card-Counting" or "General" sections while thinking if ever a thread least belonged in "Voodoo", this is it?

Which brings me to the next "competition".

What I still like best is that every member here be potentially part of a team against The Evil Casino lol. We publish a simmed game, not a "canned" one like the last one maybe, at least I wasn't clear on exactly what it was based on, defined spread, enough roll to make ROR meaningless, make all underlying assumptions clear, and anybody post results (number of hands played - best guess if no CVBJ) maybe with a few comments but only whenever they tried to follow the plan. If a KO guy wants to post, that's cool, maybe just say so, but I don't think results would be greatly effected since I don't think they are that much different. Maybe make life easy and not use indexes so BS counting players could join. Maybe post 2 simmed games for KO and Hi-Lo. I don't know. Make it heads-up play-all to make life easy. Maybe just with the goal of finding out eventually, since it would be open-ended, if a "plan" might actually work eventually. Doesn't matter what the "plan" is but maybe just a simpler one so more people could do it. Maybe only 4 decks for those that use cards.

Results could always anytime be figured on both an individual and team basis.

.......
Otherwise, Froggy has me psyched up and I want to be on his team if he'll have me and we'll try our best on some plan we decide on. Our only competion though, really, is The Evil Empire. Don't know about anyone else but that's the only person I want to beat.

but i'm thinking you'd prefer to not employ your voodoo tactics as it appears your taking an opposite tact below......

Never the end

I really liked what you guys did and especially Froggy's comparison to something.

I forgot what a great tool that CVBJ is to help measure one's progress and mistakes. I think it helped The Wise One realize, if he chose to, he has the skill to accurately count and be a good little robot. Not easy, methinks lol.
I know JJ knows what he's doing but but I always found it difficult to know with physical cards if I was accurate or not (blowing the count, estimating remaining decks wrong, flooring or not, etc) so it's nice CVBJ let's you know that while you're trying to not be an idiot, you still are lol.

But think, Wise One, if you had 9 more like you with $5k, you could expect 5 times your earnings with a low risk, reach the long run just as quickly since that wouldn't change with a larger roll and a larger unit size, I think, and double your every 50 hours. All a larger roll does is lower ROR - you still make the same amount of money per hand - if you had had a $100K roll you still would have finished down $2600 or whatever it was and your EV and stan dev wouldn't change either.

While that amount might seem devastating, it's completely to be expected. I know you know that. It's even something you/anyone knew or could have known before you played a single hand to help you decide if it's worth it or not.

And, to depress you further, I think your sim was at 70/hands/hr so your 5300hands would be alot more hours than 53 in a casino lol.

Not sure I completely understand the "competition" part. If both you played the same way with the same system with the same skill only "luck" separates any results and you are 2 guys on a team betting to a $10K roll.

If one was free to pretty much bet anything between $10-$100 anytime to any number of hands using different counts and side counts from time to time, I may as well have employed my various voo-doo money-management betting systems while counting but you guys wouldn't let me lol.

Is it only me who sees the craziest stuff in "Card-Counting" or "General" sections while thinking if ever a thread least belonged in "Voodoo", this is it?

Which brings me to the next "competition".

What I still like best is that every member here be potentially part of a team against The Evil Casino lol. We publish a simmed game, not a "canned" one like the last one maybe, at least I wasn't clear on exactly what it was based on, defined spread, enough roll to make ROR meaningless, make all underlying assumptions clear, and anybody post results (number of hands played - best guess if no CVBJ) maybe with a few comments but only whenever they tried to follow the plan. If a KO guy wants to post, that's cool, maybe just say so, but I don't think results would be greatly effected since I don't think they are that much different. Maybe make life easy and not use indexes so BS counting players could join. Maybe post 2 simmed games for KO and Hi-Lo. I don't know. Make it heads-up play-all to make life easy. Maybe just with the goal of finding out eventually, since it would be open-ended, if a "plan" might actually work eventually. Doesn't matter what the "plan" is but maybe just a simpler one so more people could do it. Maybe only 4 decks for those that use cards.

Results could always anytime be figured on both an individual and team basis.

I know, Ghost-Rider, you hate it lol. Too simple. Too restrictive. Maybe somebody here that has CV whatever it is you need, could sim you one of your "wild" counting strategies. Then maybe you can find out what The Wise One has been going thru lol. But at least you won't have to ask 5000 hands later what your EV and win rate is lol.

Otherwise, Froggy has me psyched up and I want to be on his team if he'll have me and we'll try our best on some plan we decide on. Our only competion though, really, is The Evil Empire. Don't know about anyone else but that's the only person I want to beat.

Aslan or Canceller I need a team member.

I would, but the only software I've got is still the BS Trainer. I'm tempted to build my own, but I'd never get it ready in time.

Im down with whatever. It dont matter. Im just excited about trying my modified ao2(00222210-1-2)

I really like the idea of a team-match-up. I think that would be fun. However,if were going to go about this as a team-effort, shouldnt we compare our results against each-other? Or are you proposing something more free-stlye like?

Will we have a scoreboard?

Lets establish teams first, then go from there. Then we can proceed with the official conduction.

Aslan or Canceller I need a team member.

I feel like the Dodge ball kid:laugh:

lol the hardest part of this is gonna be getting it set up and going.
so we need teams? we need a scoreboard? and i think Kasi was talkin about maybe a four deck game with a sim? rules game parameters?
maybe some software for Canceller? maybe just get Aslan to responde lol?

Aslan is hiding.

View attachment 335

lol the hardest part of this is gonna be getting it set up and going.
so we need teams? we need a scoreboard? and i think Kasi was talkin about maybe a four deck game with a sim? rules game parameters?
maybe some software for Canceller? maybe just get Aslan to responde lol?

lol. yeah Aslan is good at that. yeah he is. now come on outa there Aslan ole boy. that's it. don't wanna have to get ZenGrifter after you with the choke chain. :grin:
does Aslan have CVBJ maybe? or four decks of cards maybe? input maybe?
:cat:

Well, back from a few days away but I'm glad we're still talking about it at least lol.

Ijust wanted to keep something simple so even people without CVBJ or whatever, maybe like Canceller or whoever lol, could just do the best they can anyway they want, with physical cards, with trainer software

(as long as it could deal to a pen level), bet according to whatever "plan" we dream up and just chime in from time to time "I played about x hands and won/lost whatever". That's why not even indexes to complicate things. The key is every person will be trying to bet the same amount at the same TC like every member of any team would be trying to do. All they'd be doing is counting as best they can and trying to bet what they are supposed to at each count.

But level 2 counts might be a little exotic but, then again, maybe not.

Everybody on the same team, playing when they can. Reporting back to "HQ" from time to time with results, good or bad. Everyone's "luck" measured by the same yardstick. If someone's "luck" gets really out of line, maybe they'll want to re-examine things. Maybe even good luck could be so unusual that it would make wonder what he was really doing lol.
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Somebody sim me a crappy 4.5/6 or 3/4 6D playing-all 1-16 heads up, no surrender, no indexes, DA2, DAS, floored counts, Hi=LO, and we'll use that as the team's plan.
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KO, Red 7, Ao2 guys welcome. There can't be that much difference between these counting systems can there?

20 guys, 100 hands a day, 100 days, presto 200,000 hands lol.

People, beginners or not, get a chance to measure their play to expected. Won't cost them a dime lol.

zg knows who's boss.

I really don't think you need ole Aslan with his scant knowledge of card counting limited only to KO. Lol I am enjoying watching the contest but I don't really feel drawn to enter the experiment.
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In practice sessions I may find the long run to be quite short while in actual casino play it may turn out to be several lifetimes. Lol Like they say in the stock market, "Past experience is not a predictor of future performance." I wonder what the mathematical limit of the long run is, anyway? I intuit it approaches infinity, but never reaches a finite endpoint. Is that true? With probabilities there is no sure thing, right? Only virtually a sure thing, whatever that means.
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Lol Oh, and I am completely overwhelmed by your knowledge and analysis of the play. I can follow some of it; the rest leaves me standing in the dust.
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I am happy just to play knowing I have a reasonable expectation of winning with minimal risk of ruin, which I can enhance if I'm willing to put forth the effort with a more precise counting scheme, but which I know is not a sure thing no matter what plan I formulate.