I lied

#1
Somewhere along the way... I lied. I stated in a post along the way about the casinos spending at least 10 times what they potentially would lose to card-counters in doing various countermeasures because "It's the principal of the thing that absolutely no one should ever win a dime out of us and we (the casinos) are willing to spend 10 times whatever amount that they could even take in countermeasures". At least I stated that ratio was not neccessarily an accurate ratio and "off the top of my head" in order to make a point.

In a publication known as "Casino-ology" by author Bill Zender that I was pouring over, I picked apart some of it to see that this number works out to MUCH higher than that. It's more to the tune of 100 times what any counters could possibly extract, other than organized teams playing for incredibly high stakes... and GUESS WHAT KIDDIES!? There's not too many of those around with 2-3 million backing them up to work with... just not something you see everyday.

The whole "witch hunt" to go after those evil counters that are "taking the casinos"?---Uhm, statistically less than 1% of all blackjack players are counters and out of THESE only about 1% of those are successful in the long run/long term. A prime example of this was a conversation I had with someone that I overheard talking and sparked up a conversation with in Atlantic City sometime back in which he boasted of being a counter to me and talked on about his play, his range of games, etc. and I posted about that conversation on here calling him "another lamb to the slaughter", which caught some ridicule toward me as if I was being overly critical and perhaps "picking on a basic hi-lo system", etc. but it was much more than that, involving his bet spread and practices and the variety of games he was willing to play.

There are many factors to this and reasons that I shall only briefly touch on. You should obtain this publication and read it! ESPECIALLY if you are a casino employee (which he goes into great detail just how many of them lurk these blackjack sites, hoping to turn out AP's, ID them and push them toward giving up information). Some of the reasons casinos "shoot themselves in the foot" are as follows:

HANDS PER HOUR and how cutting off a large percentage of the shoe loses 5-6 hands per hour for every additional 1/2 deck cut off. This adds up to a phenomenal amount of money to lose annually and across the board that out of your patron base that has one or two people that (if they are lucky) will make a whopping $35 an hour at the tables. The hands per hours lost tablulated up can add up to hundreds of thousands annually! A medium sized casino is apparently willing to lose $700,000.00 per year to prevent like...4 guys from taking down $20,000 a piece. That is just this ONE practice... there's more!

NOMIDSHOE TABLES seem like a GREAT idea to prevent those evil "wongers" from "wonging", right? WONG!...er..WRONG! By cutting players out across the board from playing you lose hands per hour, once again. A player that WOULD have jumped in that is not a counter in any way, shape or form is excluded from play for let's say... 14 minutes, until the shuffle. A spot at the table that would have had hands playing is empty, costing the casino because that potential player is just standing there and not playing. It's not much--perhaps the house advantage of a series of minimum bets even but those nickels and dimes add up FAST and this adds up to more hundreds of thousands in lost action annually!

RULE CHANGES that increase house advantage, now THAT's a sure fire way to increase the casino's take! Uhm....WRONG! For example, a recreational player strolls up to a single deck blackjack game that pays 6 to 5. After a while he realizes he is being duped and "gypped" when he gets that lousy 6 bucks for his 5 dollar bet on the blackjack. Many players not too savvy with odds hear "6 to 5" instead of "3 to 2" and since 6 to 5 is a higher number they think this is GOOD! UNTIL... Many players have walked out of casinos never to play there again over such things. The casino lost years of gaming potential out of this one player over gouging up the house advantage. The increase of house advantage does not compensate for the loss of potential business.
Will Harrah's implementation of hitting soft 17 (which adds the slight casino advantage of .22%) increase revenue enough to compensate for the players lost that will play another casino in order to have a dealer that stays on 17's? Have enough players lose hands because of this rule and you will lose business... they will go elsewhere. Brilliant move, DUMBASS... you hedged up your profit margin but lost enough gross business that this move costs you a lot of money!

RIDICULOUS SHUFFLES to thwart those evil shuffle trackers! Heck of a brilliant move, right? WRONG! Shuffle trackers are so far and few between it's ridiculous... there may only be a few people in the entire world that can do this truly consistently and accurately enough to have it be profitable. You make a ridiculously long, elaborate and difficult shuffle and take away....you guessed it! Hands per hour.
Wait! I know! Let's put in some continuous shufflers and automatic shufflers! Brilliant, right? WRONG! You are "putting out the word" to your player base that you are altering the game to be more in the way of unbeatable and even the novice, tourist and recreational players will "fear the machinery" and more likely shy away from that game. Even if they play all that has to happen is a normal, typical losing streak and they will assume "the evil machine is rigged against them" with this making them more likely to walk at the drop of a hat, meaning... you guessed it!...Less play/less hands per hour.

Why would casinos think up really stupid things that ultimately and in the long run cost them money? Why would they "shoot themselves in the foot" financially? That's easy! The honchos, the big wigs are all mapping out strategy and come up with an idea... everyone agrees because if you don't you are not a "team player" amongst the group of suits that make up the "powers that be". Other casinos follow suit because "If they're doing it... it must be right!" and follow suit! Add in outside companies that sell technology, equipment, etc. to casinos that use the right BS sales pitch to sell them CSM's and such and as part of their sales pitch say that "We are making and/or saving you money from those evil AP's" (instead of losing huge amounts in lost business in the overall aspect of it all and spending huge dollars on expensive countermeasures to do it)... and you have a "witch hunt" that makes what they did in Salem look lame and it's costing the casinos millions to avoid losing a few thousand here and there!
 
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SD Padres

Well-Known Member
#2
If I owned a casino I wouldn't even worry about low stakes counters. When I say "low stakes" I'm taking anyone playing less than $100 tables. I'd keep a watchful eye on those tables for sure.

Even if a quarter player was spreading 1-15 I'd watch them but not get to excited. These guys that sweat red and green action don't have too much to fear.

All they need to do - as not to get hit by big money teams - would be no mid shoe entry over $100 bet. That would kill any team effort that could cause damage. The rest is chump change to any casino on the strip and honestly most downtown as well.

However, we are talking about counters and not cheats. I would keep an eye out for card cheats at every level of play. But to sweat the action of a card counter is very unproductive.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#3
Yeah, it's the cheats that will kill you. I love that casinos deal face down in pitch games to stop the counters (at 1% edge) and allow the muckers and markers to play with their double digit advantages.

If I ran a casino, I'd cut 1 deck out of 6 and 8 deckers, 1/2 deck out of double deck, and probably deal 2/3 pen in single deck. H17, split as much as you want, DAS, late surrender. Absolutely allow mid shoe entry.

The complicated shuffles are especially retarded. For every 5 competent, professional level counters, there might be 1 shuffle tracker. Use a simple shuffle, and if one guy in 1,000,000 (which is probably the odds that anyone is a shuffle tracker) can beat you, then let him.

Give the players as many options as possible, and for every counter that can add .2 units per hour to his winnings their will be 100 suckers that will hang themselves with the extra options.

I would probably tell surveillance to ignore anyone betting red chips. In fact, we would probably make money if we never backed off a suspected counter.
 
#4
counter meas.

I usually have no problem with a shuffle machine, especially in DD, in fact most of the time I prefer it, key here is most of the time, not all.

There ARE casinos that operate in a way that you guys wish they did.

Some just want no one to have the edge and will not allow it in any way. They usually do lose alot of business, and they are greedy, and dumb. So you do not play in those places. The truth is alot of you guys play 8 deckers, and that tells me you are stupid and dumb.

Alot of times AP's cause their own problems by attitude.

CP
 
#5
creeping panther said:
...The truth is alot of you guys play 8 deckers, and that tells me you are stupid and dumb....
Do you really mean that? Sounds almost like superstition.

When selecting a game the least significant criterion I use is the number of decks.
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
#6
8 decks

What's bad about them other than the fact that you're mired in negative counts much longer at times and if you can't take a walk that's an issue.

Billy C1
 

StudiodeKadent

Well-Known Member
#7
As an economist I agree with the initial poster that casinos are really shooting themselves in the foot in the effort to stop advantage players. Admittedly, since I am a BS player I have no problem with CSM's, and I'd personally rather a consistently tiny house edge from a CSM than a 0.28% house edge from a countable game.

However, part of the reason Blackjack is popular is the whole "this game is beatable" mythology. Part of the reason people play it is because there is a non-negligable chance of hitting a huge winning streak, getting comped and even if just for a night, feeling like a hero.

Ultimately, offerring a fair game of Blackjack is in the casino's interests. A casino sells entertainment. Allowing a player to get their bankroll wiped out in five minutes is bad for the casino because the player then leaves and tells their friends to avoid the place. This is actually another reason I'd take a CSM low-edge over a high-edge shoe game... counters are such a small demographic that lower house edges benefit a wider variety of people (thus, it probably is in the Casino's interest to take this strategy). Regardless, spending a huge amount of money to prevent AP'ers that take much less than the cost of CSMs, private investigators, or anything along those lines is simply irrational.

Still, if casinos keep on the path they currently are going down, Blackjack's reputation will be killed, and the game will lose popularity. Thus, Casinos will lose business. Being fair to players is, in the long run, the best policy a casino can adopt for business success, because then you will get more devoted long-run clients.
 

rollem411

Well-Known Member
#8
Tarzan said:
NOMIDSHOE TABLES seem like a GREAT idea to prevent those evil "wongers" from "wonging", right? WONG!...er..WRONG! By cutting players out across the board from playing you lose hands per hour, once again. A player that WOULD have jumped in that is not a counter in any way, shape or form is excluded from play for let's say... 14 minutes, until the shuffle. A spot at the table that would have had hands playing is empty, costing the casino because that potential player is just standing there and not playing. It's not much--perhaps the house advantage of a series of minimum bets even but those nickels and dimes add up FAST and this adds up to more hundreds of thousands in lost action annually!
I agree with all you have posted except for this one. We all hear about the superstitiuos flow. How many times have you wonged into a table to hear another player grunting and b*tching that you screwed up the cards? TOO MANY. I think they have the NMS at higher min. tables because they want to keep the average ploppy happy and probably to kill all attempts of a wong in. Yes, they are losing a lot of money, but you do want to keep the customers you already have. Not every table should be NMS, but maybe have 2 or 3 tables like this so you do keep these people happy.
 
#9
Billy C1 said:
What's bad about them other than the fact that you're mired in negative counts much longer at times and if you can't take a walk that's an issue.

Billy C1
In any shoe game if you can't get in and out of the game it's an issue, and you're in trouble if you have to play-all at a 6D game too. Your good counts are only likely to come towards the end of the shoe anyway, so all that really matters is the penetration. Pen, surrender, and the ability to get in and out of as many tables as possible is what you want in shoe BJ.
 
#10
Monkey

Automatic Monkey said:
Do you really mean that? Sounds almost like superstition.

When selecting a game the least significant criterion I use is the number of decks.
The "least significant criterion"....to each his own.

Unless it is very trackable, or dealt to the bottom and you cam MS it, or it has the most FAB of rules, yes, I meant EXactly what I said.

The problem is that many just want...need, to play and will convince themselves of anything to do so, Delusional...Addicted..and falling right in line for the casino junk games.

But you go right ahead, play the 8 decks, you may just feel a need to do so.:rolleyes:

The casino loves you for it.

CP
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#11
creeping panther said:
The "least significant criterion"....to each his own.

Unless it is very trackable, or dealt to the bottom and you cam MS it, or it has the most FAB of rules, yes, I meant EXactly what I said.

The problem is that many just want...need, to play and will convince themselves of anything to do so, Delusional...Addicted..and falling right in line for the casino junk games.

But you go right ahead, play the 8 decks, you may just feel a need to do so.:rolleyes:

The casino loves you for it.

CP
Aren't you in the Midwest? I don't know if you've noticed, but there are some areas of the country where that's the only thing available.
 
#12
Moo

moo321 said:
Aren't you in the Midwest? I don't know if you've noticed, but there are some areas of the country where that's the only thing available.
And what a shame that is, keep supporting it and they will stay. Are you saying you Need to play and will play whatever is Available? Doesn't that fall in line with my previous post's point:eek:

And you cannot even find a fine 6d???

CP
 

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#13
moo321 said:
For every 5 competent, professional level counters, there might be 1 shuffle tracker.
i would guess less. but what do i know.

another thing that the casinos should keep in mind is that many so called card counters are subject to overbetting their bankroll and other worse things like steaming. Even people on here admit to it. As WE know it isn't just an issue of if your skills and emotions are good enough. Your wallet and math have to be equally spot-on. An under capitalized card counter stands a very strong chance of losing everything - which is a perfect scenario for a casino. Playing a winning game from a counting perspective is one thing, playing a long term winning game is something that requires a different level of discipline.

In general though, poor house rules hurt the casino most. Some BS players know the difference between good and bad rules and play at one house over another accordingly.

When faced with these issues as a counter, I always play MUCH MORE aggressively at houses with poor rules out of necessity and spite. And if I get backed off, no big deal. A house with better rules will see me play less aggressively with the hopes that I will be greeted with a smiling face and a comp for my next visit.
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#14
Creeping Panther is talking like an 8D S17 game with good pen is unbeatable. I beg to differ. Not everyone has good DD or 4D games at their disposal. If the 8D is still beatable, I don' t think anyone is stupid for playing it. And APs playing 8D is hardly supporting it, as if that AP is truly an AP, their playing it should reduce their hold..

Now I know CP is a knowledgeable AP, but I think he's a little off here. As long as proper wonging is used, 8D can actually be a great game in the right conditions. If they're cutting a deck off of both the 8D and the DD, and the shoe game offers better rules, I'm playing 8D as long as wonging is feasible..
 
#15
creeping panther said:
The "least significant criterion"....to each his own.

Unless it is very trackable, or dealt to the bottom and you cam MS it, or it has the most FAB of rules, yes, I meant EXactly what I said.

The problem is that many just want...need, to play and will convince themselves of anything to do so, Delusional...Addicted..and falling right in line for the casino junk games.

But you go right ahead, play the 8 decks, you may just feel a need to do so.:rolleyes:

The casino loves you for it.

CP
My local game is 8D and has a SCORE of between 64 and 82. What's the SCORE of the game you usually play?

Oh and my usual win rate on this game is between 0.34 and 0.44 big bets/100 hands. Your numbers, please?
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#16
Come on, AM!

Automatic Monkey said:
My local game is 8D and has a SCORE of between 64 and 82. What's the SCORE of the game you usually play?

Oh and my usual win rate on this game is between 0.34 and 0.44 big bets/100 hands. Your numbers, please?
You're a fool playing 8D. You're probably just making those numbers up.
 
#17
Monkey

Automatic Monkey said:
My local game is 8D and has a SCORE of between 64 and 82. What's the SCORE of the game you usually play?

Oh and my usual win rate on this game is between 0.34 and 0.44 big bets/100 hands. Your numbers, please?
Congrats,

You backcount 8 deck games, congrats.:rolleyes:

"Oh and my USUAL", usual :) OK.;)

The games I play, I keep to myself and a few others. :grin:

I take no credit for the games I play, they are there and I am very disciplined
in what I play and what I will not play. Also I do not have the time to stand and backcount 8 deck shoes, fine if you do have the time.

I take care not to form addictions or compulsions and this gives me the strength to refuse games such as you have chosen to play and thus reward the casino and the insult they lay before you.

You can attempt to justify the 8 deckers... but I will not be one to sit by and watch as new players are mislead as to the virtue of 8 deckers.

BTW my "local" casino offers 8 deckers, I don't play it. But I know of many problem gamblers that will.

CP
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#18
8 deck is fine

I'm with Automatic Monkey. There are plenty of good 8-deck games, and there is nothing inherently wrong with them. Your constant denial of such smacks of ignorance, and should be disregarded by other readers here hoping to learn something.

Please advance a shred of evidence that 8 deck games are "unbeatable".
 

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#19
creeping panther said:
Congrats,

You backcount 8 deck games, congrats.:rolleyes:

"Oh and my USUAL", usual :) OK.;)

The games I play, I keep to myself and a few others. :grin:

I take no credit for the games I play, they are there and I am very disciplined
in what I play and what I will not play. Also I do not have the time to stand and backcount 8 deck shoes, fine if you do have the time.

I take care not to form addictions or compulsions and this gives me the strength to refuse games such as you have chosen to play and thus reward the casino and the insult they lay before you.

You can attempt to justify the 8 deckers... but I will not be one to sit by and watch as new players are mislead as to the virtue of 8 deckers.

BTW my "local" casino offers 8 deckers, I don't play it. But I know of many problem gamblers that will.

CP
A good AP simply adapts to the games that are offered to him. Sure some games are better than others, but what are you going to do if that's all they offer. Avoiding them won't make them go away because the ploppies will play anything. The most important thing to me is good pen which trumps bad rules. There are a few casinos in Vegas for instance which are constantly bashed for poor rules but I see the good pen in them and to me they are very playable where others won't even go in them because of their reputation. Sometimes you have to look for advantages where others don't see it. I understand where you are coming from CP especially since I got the privilige to play with you in your neck of the woods. I understand you play some amazing games but when all we have is 8 deckers as long as we still have an advantage they are worth playing, we just have to work a lot harder to extract the rewards. And when travelling to better games you must consider the travel costs involved. Anyways I look to forward to once again playing some of your great games in the near future!
 
#20
John,

johndoe said:
I'm with Automatic Monkey. There are plenty of good 8-deck games, and there is nothing inherently wrong with them. Your constant denial of such smacks of ignorance, and should be disregarded by other readers here hoping to learn something.

Please advance a shred of evidence that 8 deck games are "unbeatable".
John, Do you play 8 deckers?

Do you think that 9 or 10 deckers are beatable?

If the casino keeps hearing how great you gents feel 8 deckers are you will soon be facing even more decks:rolleyes:

John, are 8 decks better than 6, or 4 or 2 ?

Remember at one time all BJ was 1 deck:)

Now we are up to 8 :laugh:

CP
 
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