Counting and Betting basic stategies.

[jack.jackson]

Bj

Not sure why theres no change in the RoR, but it remains the same.

 

[Howie]

Hey Jack,
Thanks again mate..

Would you be able to try the following with your program..

A spread like this:

$1000 BR

$10 minumum bet

spread of 8

Custom bets $10-$80 - TC <1/0/1($10), TC2($20), TC3($40) TC4+($80)

I reckon that might bring it down, but then again i might be wrong.

If maximum bet is only $80, then wouldnt it drop significantly?

Although that doesnt explain why max $120 is higher RoR than max $200..

Anyway, see what you can do, id be interested in seeing those spreads

Howie.

 

[bjcount]

Hey Jack,
Thanks again mate..

Would you be able to try the following with your program..

A spread like this:

$1000 BR

$10 minumum bet

spread of 8

Custom bets $10-$80 - TC <1/0/1($10), TC2($20), TC3($40) TC4+($80)

I reckon that might bring it down, but then again i might be wrong.

If maximum bet is only $80, then wouldnt it drop significantly?

Although that doesnt explain why max $120 is higher RoR than max $200..

Anyway, see what you can do, id be interested in seeing those spreads

Howie.

Sorry to make you waste your time JJ, I did a quick look at the canned sims for hilo full indices. Either way you look at it, you were playing with all your BR in both instances. If you drop the min to $5, and WO at 0 or WO +1 it will drop the RoR. Forget the $25 min, you'll never last on 1k BR.

The reason your RoR is higher at $120 is, if you look at the spread, your putting less money out in lower counts with the 200 max bet then with the 120 max bet. Your putting 120 at +3 vs 100 at +6. Your just extending your possible bankruptcy a little bit longer.

BJC

 

[Howie]

Sorry to make you waste your time JJ, I did a quick look at the canned sims for hilo full indices. Either way you look at it, you were playing with all your BR in both instances. If you drop the min to $5, and WO at 0 or WO +1 it will drop the RoR. Forget the $25 min, you'll never last on 1k BR.

The reason your RoR is higher at $120 is, if you look at the spread, your putting less money out in lower counts with the 200 max bet then with the 120 max bet. Your putting 120 at +3 vs 100 at +6. Your just extending your possible bankruptcy a little bit longer.

BJC

But what about this: Would this work?

$10 minumum bet

spread of 8

Custom bets $10-$80 - TC <1/0/1($10), TC2($20), TC3($40) TC4+($80)

 

[StudiodeKadent]

yes Kadent, you are right.. crown rules are what I listed..

I thought crown was the best in australia.. jeez id hate to see the worst?

Crown rules probably ARE the best in Australia. I don't know what the worst are, I'm afraid, and I don't want to know.

Is it possible to beat them with basic hi-lo?.. Yes i now theres no surrender.. or re-splitting aces.. But what are the main factors that give them the house edge, in the rules ive listed..? Haha because macua or any other country (or state even) is out of the question..

It should be possible to beat them by card-counting, yes, since they use shoes. As for the main factors behind the house edge..
1) no resplitting aces
2) double only on 9-11
3) no surrender
4) OBBO if dealer BJ's

The first is the biggest, statistically, but the third is also a real bitch.

As far as I know, not all tables have CSM's. i wouldnt bother if they did.. If the casino your talking about up there is Jupiters, I understand its one of the hardest to beat around australia..Due to the CSM's mainly yeah?

I've only gambled at the Treasury, but its owned by Jupiters so I'd assume the same rules apply. If its one of the hardest around Australia, I'd say that is probably due to CSMs because rules in Australia are relatively constant (they all suck but some places suck harder than others).

So, why do Aus. rules suck so much? Short answer is that the Casinos are part-government owned and they are monopolies. House edges go up as the desire to raise revenue increases. If we had more competition there would probably be an improvement in that department.

 

[jack.jackson]

The reason has to do with less money on the table, with the advantage.

Play hand's only @ +1 and above. Your ramp is on right!! Note with your ramp, your win-rate is about 20% higher

Have a Foster's for me mate:toast:

 

[Howie]

Ahh yes! I like that..!

And i dont think I would get much heat either..

If I was to adjsut one thing, id make the +4,+5,+6 a custom bet of $40.
This might even bring the RoR down even lower, and be very simple, and I dont think heat would be a problem..

And wont i need a minimum $10 bet at 0 and ,<1? I have to sit in and count some cards first at the minimum..

Thanks mate

 

[bjcount]

Ahh yes! I like that..!

And i dont think I would get much heat either..

If I was to adjsut one thing, id make the +4,+5,+6 a custom bet of $40.
This might even bring the RoR down even lower, and be very simple, and I dont think heat would be a problem..

And wont i need a minimum $10 bet at 0 and ,<1? I have to sit in and count some cards first at the minimum..

Thanks mate

With a little fooling of the bets, these are the best results I could quickly come up with the lowest RoR, although the win rate/hr stinks. This is with HILO complete full indices.

BJC

 

[sagefr0g]

With a little fooling of the bets, these are the best results I could quickly come up with the lowest RoR, although the win rate/hr stinks. This is with HILO complete full indices.

BJC

thing is he'll rarely if ever bet above ten maybe twenty buck, probably would be more inspiring watching glaciers melt.:whip:

 

[Howie]

thing is he'll rarely if ever bet above ten maybe twenty buck, probably would be more inspiring watching glaciers melt.:whip:

Yes I agree,

Ok, how bad is really 50% RoR?

Ok so if the Risk of Ruin = e-2 x WR x BR ÷ (SD x SD)

Then, I typically receive 24 hands per shoe, three shoes per hour. In four hours, this would total 288 hands.

In that chart, Im reciveing 100 hands, and in 50 hours..

Could this have anything to do with it?

Could somebody try this for me with these setting sdjustments, and also include +3,+4,+5 as a $40 bet, rather than a $80 bet.

Or, adjsut accordingly, leave 3,4 and 5 as 80, and anything over say +7, change to 120. This means the spread would have to be changed, but it could have dramatic affects.

If someone could do this for me, id be very interested to see the results..

 

[sagefr0g]

Yes I agree,

Ok, how bad is really 50% RoR?

basically does that state I have a 50-50 chance of going broke or starting a decent bankroll? Does it really need to be under 50?

it's subjective, ie. your call if it's bad. me i'd call it horrific and i'm just a hack.
the way i think about it is, it's as if you and 99 other counters all play the same way, (bets & strategy) and the same games. then you could figure fifty of you's guys would lose your entire bankroll , the other fifty, i'm not so sure, hopefully some one who knows will address that, but i think it's if you got to your N0 you'd expect to be at your expectation for a N0's worth of rounds played since that's where one standard deviation becomes equivalent to your expectation, but i guess if you was down two or more standard deviations you could still have lost some money.
are there no five dollar min tables?

 

[bjcount]

Yes I agree,

Ok, how bad is really 50% RoR?

Ok so if the Risk of Ruin = e-2 x WR x BR ÷ (SD x SD)

Then, I typically receive 24 hands per shoe, three shoes per hour. In four hours, this would total 288 hands.

In that chart, Im reciveing 100 hands, and in 50 hours..

Could this have anything to do with it?

Could somebody try this for me with these setting sdjustments, and also include +3,+4,+5 as a $40 bet, rather than a $80 bet.

Or, adjsut accordingly, leave 3,4 and 5 as 80, and anything over say +7, change to 120. This means the spread would have to be changed, but it could have dramatic affects.

If someone could do this for me, id be very interested to see the results..

Howie.
Here is the last sim I can do. It's may not be what your looking for but you'll get the picture. I don't use HiLo but tell me something, how often do you see a TC+6 or greater in an 8d shoe? Once in 15 shoes? 20 shoes?
Put more money together for a BR then you can build your max bet to $120.

BJC

 

[Howie]

it's subjective, ie. your call if it's bad. me i'd call it horrific and i'm just a hack.
the way i think about it is, it's as if you and 99 other counters all play the same way, (bets & strategy) and the same games. then you could figure fifty of you's guys would lose your entire bankroll , the other fifty, i'm not so sure, hopefully some one who knows will address that, but i think it's if you got to your N0 you'd expect to be at your expectation for a N0's worth of rounds played since that's where one standard deviation becomes equivalent to your expectation, but i guess if you was down two or more standard deviations you could still have lost some money.
are there no five dollar min tables?

Thanks Frog and bj

Nah, $10 is the minimum..

I guess I could keep working on my counting, until I get to a $4000 BR..

I shouldnt guess, I will..

That should change the RoR a lot shouldnt it?

 

[Cherry7Up]

it's subjective, ie. your call if it's bad. me i'd call it horrific and i'm just a hack.
the way i think about it is, it's as if you and 99 other counters all play the same way, (bets & strategy) and the same games. then you could figure fifty of you's guys would lose your entire bankroll , the other fifty, i'm not so sure, hopefully some one who knows will address that, but i think it's if you got to your N0 you'd expect to be at your expectation for a N0's worth of rounds played since that's where one standard deviation becomes equivalent to your expectation, but i guess if you was down two or more standard deviations you could still have lost some money.
are there no five dollar min tables?

Can someone confirm this understanding of what RoR measures? For some reason I thought that a 50/50 RoR meant half of the time you would lose everything before doubling everything (and the other half of the time you would reach double before reaching 0), but that might be quite misguided.

 

[jack.jackson]

Pick your poison

Okay a couple of different scenario's, for you to check out!

I assumed you preferred to backcount this??

60 or 70 hands per hour, is a little more realistic, if your backcounting, as BJcount pointed out.

I moved you down to a 1:8 spread, since I moved your TC, up 1

The 10.42 per hour,w/a 15.4% RoR, looks pretty good!!! But, that's with 100 hands per hour. That's about 6$ and some change at about 60 hands per hour.

Tip: Play when business is slow, to get more hands in.

 

[jack.jackson]

5k-br

Heres what I like: See Custom

Note that @50 hands per hour,(vs. 100) your Win-Rate is exactly 1/2 that, while the RoR, stays the same.

 

[standard toaster]

Also, is there a counting system that starts at 10, then goes 9,8,7 and so on for minus.. and then 11,12,13 and so on for plus..

Would be a lot simpler counting up and back from ten, rather that minus and zero all the time.. For me anyway..

If there is, whats it called?

Howie.

converting that to true count would be a pain in the ass as well as confusing after a while. YOu could really use any count like that i guess but your just making more work for yourself.

 

[Howie]

Yes i like the last one!

So with the 2 X 50.. thats playing 2 hands i take it?

What if someone is either side of me?

Or does it mean something else?

 

[bjcount]

Yes i like the last one!

So with the 2 X 50.. thats playing 2 hands i take it?

What if someone is either side of me?

Or does it mean something else?

Howie
Make sure you understand the chart properly.
1) It is set for 100 hands/hr, but when you backcount - Wong out +1 the sim says you are playing only 24.4% of the 100hands/hr. In other words you are playing approx. 25 hands (rounds)/hr. I say rounds because you are now spreading to two hands per round (which would equal 50 hands).
2) The RoR is based on a $5000 BR
3) Your avg bet is just over double at the custom rate vs optimal, but your RoR is 5 times greater.
4) There are 4 players at the table including you would mean there are 5 boxes on the table with bets (your x2)

5) Do they play ENHC where you are?

So understand your risks are much greater then using the optimum schedule.

You should really read some books first before you continue to play for real money.

BJC

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
it's subjective, ie. your call if it's bad. me i'd call it horrific and i'm just a hack.
the way i think about it is, it's as if you and 99 other counters all play the same way, (bets & strategy) and the same games. then you could figure fifty of you's guys would lose your entire bankroll , the other fifty, i'm not so sure, hopefully some one who knows will address that, but i think it's if you got to your N0 you'd expect to be at your expectation for a N0's worth of rounds played since that's where one standard deviation becomes equivalent to your expectation, but i guess if you was down two or more standard deviations you could still have lost some money.
are there no five dollar min tables?

Can someone confirm this understanding of what RoR measures? For some reason I thought that a 50/50 RoR meant half of the time you would lose everything before doubling everything (and the other half of the time you would reach double before reaching 0), but that might be quite misguided.

i also hope some one can clarify that point. i can just say i've noticed in stuff that talks about risk of ruin that the point about doubling your bankroll is often mentioned. but i don't know how one is supposed to relate that information.
i do remember a poster moo, i believe it was talking about how we should all be careful of what ROR it was we were referring to. like is it life time ROR, or maybe i'm not sure ROR till you double your roll.
what ever i hope as you do some one clarifies this.