BlackJack in Bars

[nottooshabby]

Was just in Vegas. Heat at good SD downtown and DD Strip games was palpable . . . one of my buddies actually got tapped. No heat on the 6D Strip games, even in the hi-limit pits.

 

[Stickum11]

Well I think Kasi wanted it more than me, but thanks for the sim SageFrog.
Basically tho, I think all this says it that my original post was right on, and my original plan/system was the optimal one,LMAO. Or I guess I could be misinterpreting the sim, which is even funnier,LOL!!!
In any case, thanks for all the thought and input.

 

[Stickum11]

I guess I do have one more question...

On the sim, the spot that list $/Hr, that is obviously dollars per hour, but for one hand, two hands, each hand, what?

If I play 2 hands do I double that number, etc.? $5-8 an hour times two is about the perfect range for me...

 

[Kasi]

No, the variance needs to be included in the main formula...

Well, I told him twice and you told him once.

Thanks for the confirmation though - even I feel better when you happen to agree with something I said because I'm never 100% sure in the first place lol.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

I fear the silence of johndoe in replying probably implies he still thinks we're both full of it lol.

But I hope he actually "gets it" lol.

 

[johndoe]

Well, I told him twice and you told him once.

Thanks for the confirmation though - even I feel better when you happen to agree with something I said because I'm never 100% sure in the first place lol.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

I fear the silence of johndoe in replying probably implies he still thinks we're both full of it lol.

But I hope he actually "gets it" lol.

Heh, I "get it", my definition of Kelly was technically correct, but did not include the usual alterations that is relevant to BJ (I was a math guy before a BJ player, not after...) From the Wizard's site it seemed to imply it was an "approximation" to Kelly, not really an adjustment that still maintained the actual Kelly definition. I'm not keeping score, though, like most of us, I'm here to learn!

Either way, jumping from $1 to $25 with a reasonable BR seems like a fine approach to me. Hourly $ is still lousy though.

 

[Stickum11]

So I see you two still can't completely agree, but neither of you answered my question on two hands or one. I hear you saying not a great $/Hr rate, but I'm just looking for an answer...
$10-15 an hour is perfect for me, I have a good job and gamble successfully elsewhere....
$5-8 an hour is a little low even for me, so just refer to my previous post, does my hourly rate double for two hands? Or is it more complicated than that? Would I make like 1.5 double or something?

 

[FLASH1296]

johndoe,

It seems that the big strip casinos are the ones that are ramping up their heat the most, especially the MGM stores,

Forewarned is Forearmed.

 

[johndoe]

Even for green chippers / 6D, or just DD? That's too bad, they're good S17 shoe games. I was hoping to play rated to boost my status in a couple of those places and get some freebies.

 

[Sonny]

On the sim, the spot that list $/Hr, that is obviously dollars per hour, but for one hand, two hands, each hand, what?

It looks like the sim was for one hand only. If you always play two hands then you can double the $/hour.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

It looks like the sim was for one hand only. If you always play two hands then you can double the $/hour.

-Sonny-

right the sim was for one hand only. the sim was for Kasi's theoretical question, the game he stipulated not for the specific bar game of the OP.
i won't post specific sim requests for posters asking about some game, only for theoretical discussions.:eyepatch::whip:

 

[Kasi]

lookin for this stuff i guess.
used full deck resolution for true count hi/lo and only used I18.

Thanks Wise One lol.

I know you used a $10K roll which is why your ROR is 0% lol. Guess I meant let it solve an optimal unit spread with that roll lol. No matter. Don't run another one for that !

I got the better game with a fully-kelly roll of 335 units less than the 3/4 game. I think I at least guessed that right lol.

Whatever, here's my ususal spiel attached. I threw in a "Hands" column for spreading. It may or not be right though so "buyer beware" lol.

Change the stuff in red and bet any way you want with any roll you want to commit to the game with any risk that makes sense to you lol. If you want to bet $25 and spread to 7 hands at +1, just commit a higher roll to compensate to what will be an increased risk to the former roll.

My Powersim sims came out with a better game maybe because of the exact-card TC calc. Maybe something to do with indexes. But definitely alot better.

And thank you for the sims

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks Wise One lol.

I know you used a $10K roll which is why your ROR is 0% lol. Guess I meant let it solve an optimal unit spread with that roll lol. No matter. Don't run another one for that !
....

And thank you for the sims

yeah i noticed that, lol.
maybe these are better?

 

[Kasi]

Heh, I "get it", my definition of Kelly was technically correct, but did not include the usual alterations that is relevant to BJ (I was a math guy before a BJ player, not after...) From the Wizard's site it seemed to imply it was an "approximation" to Kelly, not really an adjustment that still maintained the actual Kelly definition...

Great - now I can rest easier lol.

I was a BJ player long before I somehow apparently became known as somekind of math guy lol.

I never took a statistics course, struggled to pass geometry and hated the one probability course I took in 10th grade. The only recollection I have is I couldn't figure out picking a black sock out of a drawer in 3 tries when there were 2 black socks and 2 white socks in the drawer lol.

So there's always alot of doubt in my mind when I say stuff and need corroboration too lol.

From what I gather, you're right, dividing by variance for BJ actually is an approximation but apparently is a pretty good one to use lol.

Anyway, it just seemed to me your definition of a "full-kelly" bet in BJ differed from mine. Glad we are on the same page now.

 

[Kasi]

$5-8 an hour is a little low even for me, so just refer to my previous post, does my hourly rate double for two hands? Or is it more complicated than that? Would I make like 1.5 double or something?

Well as far as "Basically tho, I think all this says it that my original post was right on" I never had a problem with your proposed graduated spread. In fact, you were about the only person that made any sense at all to me.

Think how scary that is lol.

Yes, like Sonny said, your win rate will about double if you play 2 hds at $25 compared to only 1 hand at $25. Or whatever $X.

My sheet will express things "per round" not "per hand". I hope anyway lol. I think CVCX would do the same thing. Just as, even if you don't spread to multiple hands, when you may split to 4 "hands", the rates are always "per round". At least I think they are lol. It seems like CVDATA maybe gives both IBA and TBA.
Guess only QFIT can tell you how CVCX expresses stuff. Like I just noticed CVCX sems to maybe express, when back-counting, the frequencies as a percentage of hands actually played even though one may only be playing, say, 28% of every 100 seen. 'Nother subject lol.

But, yes, I would say it is a little more complicated than that if one spreads to multiple hands optimally. If one's optimal single-hand bet is $25 and one wants to spread to 2 hands, then one will bet about 50% more in total. So one would bet 2 hands at $18.75 for $37.50 in total. This will not double your win rate but will increase your EV, just not doubling it, also increase your variance, but will keep overall risk the same with the same total $roll since EV and variance/SD are increasing proportionately keeping the overall ratio to each other the same.

But, like others say, if you want to bet $25 each spot and spread to 7 hands just because the table is open and that will get you the most possible $amount out there in an +adv situation, you will enjoy a much higher EV but you will need alot more total $roll to keep your risk of losing your roll the same as if you had just spread optimally in the first place.

Does that make sense Sonny?

Good luck Stickem. If you/anyone have more questions on my sheet or whatever, let me know and I'll try... lol.

 

[Kasi]

yeah i noticed that, lol.
maybe these are better?

Thanks Wise One.

I'm glad both sims have the same/very close optimal spread as your first sims as indicated in the "exact opt" column.

Which just basically means your opt $amt will be more but your total $roll, as expressed in units will be the same.

In other words, I can not see your cvcx pictures now while replying here but, hopefully, if I did it right from your prior sims that you posted, your $unit size in the worse game will be 10000/1481=$6.80 (a 1481 unit roll) and in the better game will be 10000/1146=$8.70 (a 1146 unit roll).

Hopefully you could use the sheet I posted and change your $roll to $10000 and your unit size to $6.80 and $8.70 respectively and it would come pretty close to the top stuff in these sims.

If these sims round a little and make the $6.80 $7 and the $8.70 $9, you could try that too.

Guess I should have actually tried that before I said this lol.

My $MM question, just for me since I've always struggled with "spreading" crap is post some optimal 2-hand spread so I could see how I did with my "Hands" column lol. Or run it and see if my sheet works before you post it lol. Or just send them to me so nobody knows how bad of a guess my "hands" sheet is lmao.

My "Hands" sheet I posted above is what I call a "guess" should one choose to use it lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

...
My $MM question, just for me since I've always struggled with "spreading" crap is post some optimal 2-hand spread so I could see how I did with my "Hands" column lol. Or run it and see if my sheet works before you post it lol. Or just send them to me so nobody knows how bad of a guess my "hands" sheet is lmao.

My "Hands" sheet I posted above is what I call a "guess" should one choose to use it lol.

not sure if this would be what your looking for. i haven't figured your hands sheet out yet.

 

[Kasi]

not sure if this would be what your looking for. i haven't figured your hands sheet out yet.

Thanks - it is what I wanted.

Here's the same sheet for spreading. The end results of win rate, risk, SD SCORE etc seem to come very close to what CVCX says. Talk about miracles lol.

I guessed a covariance of 0.48 as you can see. In games that don't allow as much doubling, the covariance, I'd guess, would be less.

Anyway, it gives some idea how to use the sheet for spreading.

Note how the unit size changed because of spreading compared to when not. Anyway, since cvcx did it, these would be optimal spreads. I think CVCX does all that covariance stuff internally somehow. Also, I'm pretty sure covariance would actually change at different TC's. But maybe not that much to make much of a difference lol.

Looks to me like the SD is expressed in units. Per round, not per hand.

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks - it is what I wanted.

Here's the same sheet for spreading. The end results of win rate, risk, SD SCORE etc seem to come very close to what CVCX says. Talk about miracles lol.

I guessed a covariance of 0.48 as you can see. In games that don't allow as much doubling, the covariance, I'd guess, would be less.

Anyway, it gives some idea how to use the sheet for spreading.

Note how the unit size changed because of spreading compared to when not. Anyway, since cvcx did it, these would be optimal spreads. I think CVCX does all that covariance stuff internally somehow. Also, I'm pretty sure covariance would actually change at different TC's. But maybe not that much to make much of a difference lol.

Looks to me like the SD is expressed in units. Per round, not per hand.

yeah i checked it out, not all yet, cause i'm still a lost puppy, lmao.
but yeah i see a lot of the numbers coming out pretty darn close.
so, this the first time you got a sheet going for two hands?

 

[zengrifter]

I live in a town that has blackjack tables in every bar. We use 4 decks and the betting spread is $1-$25. With these rules:
BlackJack pays 3:2
double on any 2 cards
split up to 4 times, except Aces, but can resplit aces
can double after split
dealer stands on soft 17
Usually about 1 to 1.5 decks are cut off.
From what I have read about counting and blackjack, this seems like an excellent game, for the veterans of blackjack is it?
I know the max is low but I want to use the Hi-Lo system with a min $1 and raise $5 ever +1 to the true count. Would this seem like a profitable approach?
I don't want to get rich, but make maybe $10-$15 an hour and get in lots of play as the bars are within 5 minutes from my front door.
Thanks for any responses.
RC

Yes, decent game - $2000+ required to allow aggressive topBet of 2x$25 as early as possible.

Search through discussions at BJINFO and locate info on 'Cut-Off-Tracking' - these games are very possible susceptible to COT, which could double your advantage. zg

 

[Kasi]

yeah i checked it out, not all yet, cause i'm still a lost puppy, lmao.
but yeah i see a lot of the numbers coming out pretty darn close.
so, this the first time you got a sheet going for two hands?

Well more or less lol.Don's table never spread much lol. But I had Sonny's sheet lol. He'd just overlay the variance column with 1.8 and be done with it lol. As you can see it doesn't change SD much.

But, you lnowm what I'd do in your first 1-hand sims is figure out my unit is $8.72 with a $10K roll. So at say TC+1 the optimal spread in the 3.5/4 game is 3.88 units. So I'd bet 8.72*3.88=33.83. If I spread, I know should bet about 73% of that optimal amount on each hand when spreading to 2 hands for 49.40 getting about 50% more total money out there as the original bet as is commonly used. So I'd change the unit column to 49.40/8.72=2.83 units.

Your spreading 2 hands sims has a $6 unit and a 4.13 unit at TC+1. So 6*4.13*2=49.56

Pretty close either way, I know the proper bet is about $50 over 2 hands.
By proper I mean the bet that will keep my overall the risk the same while increasing EV and also variance.

I like the way QFIT restated the unit to $6. I don't know how he did it lol but I like it lol.