A few questions from a new member

As with most matters of faith

itakeyourmoney said:
Is there any mathematical support for the idea that players who sit down, play a couple hands, then leave mess up the "flow" of the cards?
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The Mystical Magical Flow of the All Knowing Cards is the biggest religion of people who lose at blackjack. As with most faith based beliefs there is little or no mathematical support for their beliefs. They just have faith that the All Knowing Flow will save them.

ihate17
 
ihate17 said:
The Mystical Magical Flow of the All Knowing Cards is the biggest religion of people who lose at blackjack. As with most faith based beliefs there is little or no mathematical support for their beliefs. They just have faith that the All Knowing Flow will save them.

ihate17
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After reading the Zen Zone post on Theists, and the arguments some AP's use supporting creationism, I find it fascinating they abandon some basically irrefutable logic that questions its viability.
 
I was wondering if someone could help me figure out my EV and standard deviation -- I was trying to calculate my RoR, but didn't know soem of the info that's required.

Let me know what kind of info is needed for this, and I will provide it :)
 
itakeyourmoney said:
I was wondering if someone could help me figure out my EV and standard deviation -- I was trying to calculate my RoR, but didn't know soem of the info that's required.

Let me know what kind of info is needed for this, and I will provide it :)
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rules of game, table conditions (pen, # players), bet ramp, bankroll
 
Let me know how to calculate the Std Var based on that info.

Also, I was wondering if someone knew of a good place to buy a high-quality 6d shoe, discard tray, cut card, and felt layout. I was looking on Amazon.com, but I'd prefer to find a site that doesn't charge shipping and handling. (The shipping charges were almost as much as the items themselves.)
 
Free Shipping Hard to Find

itakeyourmoney said:
Also, I was wondering if someone knew of a good place to buy a high-quality 6d shoe, discard tray, cut card, and felt layout. I was looking on Amazon.com, but I'd prefer to find a site that doesn't charge shipping and handling. (The shipping charges were almost as much as the items themselves.)
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I'm just finishing up building a blackjack table and I got a lot of things from DiscountCasinoGear.com. It seems like the shipping is high just about everywhere I looked, usually about $12-$15 or more. The best thing to do is make sure you get everything you think you might want on one order. Adding a few more items only takes the shipping up another couple of bucks, so make sure you get everything you want the first time. I decided after my first order I wanted a few more things and it cost me another $12 in shipping cost. :(
 
Could someone help me figure out my EV, std dev, RoR, and all that good stuff with: 6d, h17, da2, das, 70-75% pen, probably about 3 players at the table, $5-200 (table limit) and $5-60 (spread), $2,000-$2,500 bankroll.

Let me know if I should be changing my spread or increasing my bankroll. (I know this last one is obvious, but I'm not sure by how much I should be increasing it.)

My current spread is:

+1 or less (1 unit)
+2 (2 units)
+3 (4 units)
+4 (8 units)
+5 or more (12 units)

Also, I was curious if anyone has ever made a habit of betting pre-determined odd amounts to try to get the dealers make a mistake. (Example, bet $23 instead of $20 hoping the dealer pays back too much on a 3:2 blackjack or something.)

And does anyone ever use team tactics to mess with dealers before the bigger players go in? So like have someone go in and just emotionally mess up a dealer (point out every single mistake, make fun of their appearance, etc.) hoping that it'll cause more payout errors or counting errors by the dealer later on? I know this is mean-spirited and may even get the abusive player kicked out, but it could be an effective tactic.
 
Your bankroll is only 30-40 times your top wager. This is going to create a high RoR. (way too high for my liking).

Betting odd amounts may increase dealer errors if you pick your spots (inexperienced dealers) but it will also slow your game down, maybe to a crawl. Less hands per hour = less profit per hour.
 
Here's an analysis from Casino Verite's Chapter X It! HiLo count with full indices.

6dhilo.png


The bet ramp that is used is called Kelly Betting. You should check it out (optimal betting for bankroll growth).

Your ROR is 47.1%, so you need a much larger bankroll. Your EV/hr is $7.15, which is pretty good.

Read some books instead of watching movies. Wong. Snyder. Griffin. Schlesinger. Save up a lot of money for your roll while you are reading up.
 
Trip RoR?

In the top right section under Bankroll/Risk it lists a figure of 1.83% under Risk Of Ruin. What does this number represent? Is it RoR for 100 hours playing time?
 
Basically that means that if you played perfectly [until you either LOST all of your bankroll or DOUBLED your Bankroll] you would stand about 2 chance in 100 of going broke and a bit above 48 chances in 100 of doubling your stake.

Naturally, in the real world both of these events may not occur for a VERY VERY long time; and maybe not ever.

It also may be a result that can be manifest in a shockingly short time span.

This brings us to the topic of a useful metric called "NO" that suggests how many hands one needs to play
in order to achieve their goal within a reasonable period of time and a reasonable probability.

I will let someone else address that.

 
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MoneyPlays said:
In the top right section under Bankroll/Risk it lists a figure of 1.83% under Risk Of Ruin. What does this number represent? Is it RoR for 100 hours playing time?
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i'm pretty sure that is trip risk of ruin.
defined in cvcx as:
Risk given no goal but a time constraint - This is the trip ruin formula in BJA page 132. Risk is still calculated, but for a specified number of hands. The risk is lower than with the above calculator since you have a quit point.
 
The ROR figure you are focusing on is only based on the Kelly Factor to the immediate right. The Kelly Factor assumes precise bets can be placed. That ROR is not based on the simulation. The ROR for this simulation is in the bottom/middle.

The minimum bet is simply too high, and the bankroll too low, to begin approaching the ROR associated with optimal Kelly betting.

If:

The table minimum was $1
Your roll was $2500
You use a half-Kelly-betting strategy
You spread 1-12
1 unit = $1

Your ROR would be 2.3%, which is much closer to the 1.83% that's offered from a half-Kelly-bet ramp.

If you used the bet ramp displayed, you would require a roll of about $13,300 to actually have ROR of ~1.8% at a $5 min table.

Basically, you are WAY UNDERROLLED!
 
itakeyourmoney said:
Is there a site or something where I could put in the rules for my game and it would give me the I18 and Fab4 indexes?
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pretty much the illustrious 18 are a concoction of indices for a s17 multiple deck game. kind of made in mind for a one shoe fits all sort of thing (say double deck through eight deck).
set up for hi/lo counter betting a spread of 1:12 i believe.
the fab four are late surrender plays,
16vs9,10,A
15vs10
is how i believe it goes.
then i think it's 15vsA at tc>=1, 15vs9 at tc>=2, 14vs10 at tc>=3

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/i18index.htm (Archive copy)
 
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