A few questions from a new member

[callipygian]

I was just wondering if someone could direct me to somewhere where I could calculate the player's advantage depending on the true count of 6 decks.

Depending on the level of accuracy you need, this approximation may be fine: add +0.5% advantage for every positive true count. A normal 6D game is around -0.6%, so +1 = -0.1%, +2 = +0.4%, etc.

I might need some help from a better mathimatician than myself here: to calculate my expected winnings I took .50408^9 (That is, the odds that I do not win the hand -- either I lose or I push -- 9 times in a row, starting with a min bet of $5 up to a max bet of $1,280.

(1) Expected Value, EV, is a ratio of what you expect to win in the long run divided by your bet. If you expect to win $1 on a $5 bet, your EV is 0.2; if you expect to win $1 on a $10 bet, your EV is 0.1. Obviously, for complex bets (such as blackjack, where your bet can double halfway through a hand) this is not trivial to calculate. Generally people will calculate expected winnings and then divide through by an average bet.

(2) EV is calculated from the general formula:
ExpectedValue = ProbabilityWin * WinAmount - ProbabilityLose * LossAmount

In your example, your EV is not $1,280, because it doesn't take into account the probability that you lose it all - even if the probability that you lose it all is small, the fact that you will lose a large amount will change the EV.

(3) In general, EV for a Martingale progression is no different from EV for a single hand. That's because you divide the winnings by the amount bet - you end up expecting to win a large percentage of the time, but only a small amount, and expect to lose a small percentage of the time, but a large amount. Martingale won't change your EV (or not by much).

 

[itakeyourmoney]

My first visit as an AP

So I went to the casino tonight with my friend to practice on keeping the count in a real casino. I was able to keep it for about 3/4 of each shoe, but could never quite hold out for the whole thing. And I almost always lost the count once I started playing as well.

Monday afternoons seem to be pretty slow at this place, so there were lots of open tables. I began by simply backcounting $5 tables while my friend played just basic strategy (occasionally I would subtly let him know to reduce his bet when he'd increase it during a bad count), and I probably played a total of 10 hands at $5/hand when TC = +1. I ended up $20 after that.

We walked around for a bit, he played some video poker and tried to hit on the cute girls with the drinks and the cleavage before deciding to head back to the tables.

I was feeling a little timid to make any bets (figured for my first time out it would be better to leave up $20 than down some), so I decided that I'd only come in when it was a really good count. About halfway through the shoe we had a RC of +9 (TC of +3) so I made a $20 bet and VERY MUCH to my surprise was dealt a blackjack. Needless to say, after being dealt that there was no way I could continue to keep the count. My hands were shaking and I ended up spilling my drink on myself (which actually worked well as it gve my friend and I a good excuse to get out of there). So I ended the day up $50, and my friend ended up about $110 -- not bad for only about two hours of work.

Now I know this is well within the variance that is to be expected; I wasn't even planning on making money, I just wanted to practice keeping the count, but I sure don't mind leaving up

 

[itakeyourmoney]

I was also wondering if someone would be willing to explain penetration.

 

[shadroch]

Penetration is mostly for counters.The deeper into the shoe the game goes, the fewer unknown cards there are. A count of +4 with five decks remaining is much weaker than a +4 with only 30 cards left.
A counter wants the deepest penetration possible. A novice wants the shallowest penetration he can find. As the BS player is an underdog on each and every hand, he is best off while the dealer is shuffling. At those moments, he's not losing.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

I'm back with some more questions:

1. What do you guys think is the best way to count? I've been counting the players' cards after the second card is dealt (makes it easy when cards cancel each other out) , then counting hit cards, and counting the dealer's cards last. I don't know if the system makes a difference, but I'm using the High/Low balanced count (2-6 are +1, 7-9 are 0, 10-A are -1).

2. I'm logging my sessions (time in casino, profit/loss, estimate of hands played, etc.) on my computer, but I'd like to have it in a little notebook as well that I could bring with me into the casino so I could make notes before I forget them. This would also allow me to see notes I've made about individual dealers (pen, dealer speed, attitude, etc.), and while I'd only write in and refer to this notebook in the restrooms or something, I'm afraid that if they were to suspect me of card counting they may find it and have rock-solid proof. So I want to know:

a) Is it a good idea to keep this info in a small notebook that I bring with me?

b) Can a casino search me if they suspect me of card counting?

b2) Would it even matter if they found it? As I think about it more it seems like if they were going to search me they'd already at least suspect me of being an AP in which they'd simply tell me to leave the casino and never come back, right?

 

[ChefJJ]

As a "casual" BJ AP, I'll briefly answer your questions...

1. Cancellation is key. It saves you a TON of wading through +1s and -1s (or 2s if you go that route).

2. Logging is a good idea, and I used to use a small notebook before it became somewhat second nature to keep it in my head until I hit the laptop. Of course, I rarely have a casino session any more where I'm not staying overnight, so I keep the laptop in the room and make it a point to stop in occasionally to wash up, rest, etc.

I'm not going to attempt to answer a, b, & c because it's never happened to me. :grin:

good luck

 

[ihate17]

A, b, & c

I'm back with some more questions:


a) Is it a good idea to keep this info in a small notebook that I bring with me?

b) Can a casino search me if they suspect me of card counting?

b2) Would it even matter if they found it? As I think about it more it seems like if they were going to search me they'd already at least suspect me of being an AP in which they'd simply tell me to leave the casino and never come back, right?

Want to bring your notebook? I log into a notebook my sessions but I use a code for casinos and dollar amounts. I also have a listing of "dealers of interest" and will bring that listing for the area with me. The information here is extremely valuable and though the list will be on me and not in my room, it also coded.

B. The casino can not legally search you but they might anyway. They might base this on their belief that you were hiding a device of some kind. I have refused to be searched by casino security and told that if they suspected me of some crime that I would willingly submit to a search by law enforcement officers who were going to charge me. I was not searched but tossed.

C. In your case, a log of your win/loss and casinos, the only bad result that I can think of is the casino might notify other casinos on your list.
In my case, if my list of dealers was readable by them, I would not like to inform them of things like which of their dealers flashes hole cards when dealing pitch.

ihate17

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Thanks ChefJJ and ihate17.

Also, I was wondering if someone could direct me to an index for High/Low, DAS, DA2, H17, 6D, No Surrender, Peek?

 

[ihate17]

Professional Blackjack

Thanks ChefJJ and ihate17.

Also, I was wondering if someone could direct me to an index for High/Low, DAS, DA2, H17, 6D, No Surrender, Peek?

Stanford Wong's book, Professional Blackjack has charts of indexes for hi-low.

ihate17

 

[itakeyourmoney]

I have now made two trips to the casino, and although I've had somewhat decent success I've played very few hands, only about 20 total. I've been backcounting while my friend plays BS, and I only played with a TC of +2 or more, and I'd usually lose the count after playing a couple hands (I can't quite handle the pressure of counting and betting at the same time haha). So what I'm wondering is should I continue to be so conservative? That is, only playing with high TCs? Or should I be playing with TCs of even like -1 for just 1 unit?

I'm going to be putting in about a week or two of hardcore practice before heading back to the casino again, so any advice would be great. Thanks guys.

 

[kewljason]

I'm going to be putting in about a week or two of hardcore practice before heading back to the casino again, so any advice would be great. Thanks guys.

This is a sound idea. If you lose the count after only two hands, you need much, much more practice. You need to practice until counting becomes second nature. Practice dealing and counting at home. Practice counting on-line. Practice, practice, practice. When you are ready, you could even go to the casino and flat bet while practice counting. This won't cost you much and there's no better simulation than the actual casino.

You should also be aware that the expected earnings that people gave you earlier in this thread of 1-2 units per hour was based on many more hand per hour than you are playing, if you have only played 20 hands after two trips. I'm sure they didn't understand how few hands you are actually playing when they posted those projections.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Well I'm planning on playing more hands once I can do a better job of keeping the count while playing, I was just wondering if I should play at lower TCs?

Also, I forgot to mention a story from my trip the other day to the casino. I was backcounting while my friend played, and a situation arose in which the dealer was dealt a blackjack, forgot to check her hole card (this was the Ace), and dealt Hit cards which everyone (or almost everyone) at the table ended up busting -- I think she dealt a total of like 7 or 8 cards. She then flipped over the hole card, saw it was an Ace, and had to call in the Floor Manager who said that everything was fine since she would've won anyway. I didn't say anything because I wasn't playing (and I think my friend only lost like $5), but it got me wondering that if this were to happen when I was laying down a max bet (or any bet for that matter), would I have a case for complaint? I think one could make a pretty valid argument that those seven cards should never have come out (perhaps their being dealt even broke the casino's own rules for the game), and that as a result of that no bets (or at least losing bets) should have to be paid to the casino -- perhaps they'd just let you keep your money to shut you up haha.

I'm interested to hear what you guys think about my comments here. First, is it ok to play at like TC -1 and -2? And second, if a dealer deals cards when they have a blackjack and you lose, can you complain that your money should not be taken?

ITYM

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Is there any mathematical support for the idea that players who sit down, play a couple hands, then leave mess up the "flow" of the cards?

 

[Xenophon]

Is there any mathematical support for the idea that players who sit down, play a couple hands, then leave mess up the "flow" of the cards?

No, people jumping in and out of the game does not negatively alter the flow of the cards for a card counter.

Remember that counting cards is based on strict mathematics. In general, either the remaining cards can be rich with tens and aces (which is what we want), roughly even, or rich with low cards. The order in which they are dealt should not be described with the word flow. The word flow to a card counter is considered voodoo.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

No, people jumping in and out of the game does not negatively alter the flow of the cards for a card counter.

Remember that counting cards is based on strict mathematics. In general, either the remaining cards can be rich with tens and aces (which is what we want), roughly even, or rich with low cards. The order in which they are dealt should not be described with the word flow. The word flow to a card counter is considered voodoo.

I'm not worried about it affecting my job as a counter. I'm asking because I've been getting some complaints from dealers and other players when I jump in after backcounting a good count, play a couple hands, then color up and leave the table. I don't really care about slightly annoying some dealers (and certainly don't care if I piss off other players), I was just curious if there was any basis to their claims or if it was just gambler "stupidstition"?

 

[Xenophon]

I'm not worried about it affecting my job as a counter. I'm asking because I've been getting some complaints from dealers and other players when I jump in after backcounting a good count, play a couple hands, then color up and leave the table. I don't really care about slightly annoying some dealers (and certainly don't care if I piss off other players), I was just curious if there was any basis to their claims or if it was just gambler "stupidstition"?

Ahh. Yes, most players ARE superstitious... So, because of this, a dealer may get annoyed that you are jumping in and "messing up the flow of the cards," for their tipping customers, who may leave because you messed up the flow of the cards. As you stated, your actions will at times annoy people at the casinos so you just have to brush it off.

 

[kewljason]

Not only should you not worry about pissing off the other players, but sometimes I go out of my way to do so. Playing extra hands to screw the sacred flow or splitting 10's sometimes clears out the table during a high count. Nothing better than that! I like "stupidstition" alot. I may have to use that.

 

[Xenophon]

I'm not sure what books you have read, but from the questions you are asking a very good resource would be "Blackbelt in Blackjack, " by Arnold Snyder. I would absolutely get this book while you are learning what it takes to get an edge by counting cards. Questions about penetration and how to select a game (or avoid one), are clearly communicated. I grew up in the upper Midwest and there are some really good lower stakes games there..

 

[blazin22]

. As I said in the beginning, I don't care about making a lot of money, it's mostly just the excitement that draws me to this lol, getting to feel like a hot card counter is thrilling even if the profits aren't the same.
ney)

I know the feeling, careful though, its important not to let those erotic flashes go to your head. Granted even I find it difficult not to chuckle to myself when I've been watching the cards and see how frustrated everyone is getting at losing the majority of hands, then when the count improves I put my bets on and get two blackjacks. Its hard not to find that strangely satisfyingly funny. :grin:

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Yesterday I was watching a movie by Semyon Dukach from blackjackscience.com (he was one of the original members of the MIT team), and in it he talks about seeing the end cards when cutting, and it lead me to notice something about the cards from my regular casino. That is that only the 10s and the Aces have anything in the corners, Aces obviously have an "A" and all 10s and face cards have a little logo -- the As and the logos are in opposite corners (top left, bottom right for Aces; top right, bottom left for Xs) so that the dealer can easily check for blackjack when sliding it into the little viewing slot thing.

What made me wonder though is if this style of cards is typical of other casinos as well, and if an advantage could ever be gained from a dealer who has a 10 up, checking first for another 10 before the Ace. (You have to slide it in one way to see if it's a 10, and turn it to see if it's an Ace.) If the dealer were to have a 10, then check quickly and instead of checking for an Ace accidently just slides it in and sees that it's a 10 then announces "no blackjack" or whatver it is they say, it would give the observant player a nice advantage as they could make better decisions (such as hitting on 17,18,19 -- or perhaps surrendering if it were available) with that extra knowledge.

Maybe dealers don't make this mistake, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.