What would you suggest?
- Thread starter Buddah B
- Start date
Before you worry about heat, why not worry first about what would happen EV-wise, SD-wise and risk-to-your-roll-wise for whatever game and ramp you are considering for each scenario?
kewljason
Well-Known Member
In my opinion, NO, you would not be gaining more heat. It is very unlikely that any shoe (I am assuming you are playing a shoe game with a spread like that) that goes negative to the point that you drop your wager to $5, would then turn positive to the point that you are making your max bet, so you probably will not have that 1-24 spread in any one shoe. Often shoes can turn around and go positive after being negative, but rarely to the point of max bet. So the shoes in which you do achieve a count worthy of your max bet would probably still be the same $10-$120 spread. (1-12)
Of course if you play too long they may spot that you drop when negative and increase with the count when positive. But If you play too long they are going to spot that anyway. So, again in my opinion, I see no extra risk.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
I know you tend to think that the vast majority overlook these important factors, but am just curious to know, how you are so sure he hasn't already figured out what the difference in EV, SD, and RoR would be? Easy enough to do with a simulator.
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
Gaining Experience
Try both and even something in the middle and see which you prefer. Kasi is correct in making sure you realize the implications to your bank, ev etc. of your decision.:joker::whip:
Try both and even something in the middle and see which you prefer. Kasi is correct in making sure you realize the implications to your bank, ev etc. of your decision.:joker::whip:
kewljason
Well-Known Member
Something in the middle of $5 and $10? What would that be, $7.50?? That will not only slow the game to a crawl with odd payouts and frequent requests for change, but dropping to an odd amount may in itself draw the attention, you are hoping to avoid.
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
There is Middle and Then There is Middle
Not $7.50:joker::whip:
Leave between TC -1 and TC -2
It would not be that hard to implement.
Not $7.50:joker::whip:
Leave between TC -1 and TC -2
It would not be that hard to implement.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
ahh, I got ya. I misunderstood your post.
moo321
Well-Known Member
Indices don't reduce negative EV that much, nor do they reduce the massive increases in ROR that come from playing negative counts.
Good point, and no I haven't, don't have a sim. If someone wanted to run one I'd appreciate it. 6D (or 4 and 2) H17 DAS DA2
creeping panther
Banned
I know you tend to think that the vast majority overlook these important factors, but am just curious to know, how you are so sure he hasn't already figured out what the difference in EV, SD, and RoR would be? Easy enough to do with a simulator.
Just a guess lol.
Becasue he specified no roll, no game, no pen, no points of ramp when he would bet how much on his way to 5-120 or 10-120.
Becasue it seems unlikely to me both scenarios would produce an equal risk or even the same $points of ramp although it seemed he could be implying a same ramp.
Becasue he seems to think twice as many units in a roll is the same as half as many units in a roll.
Becasue someone who did know wouldn't perhaps be asking about heat with a $5 unit realizing how little he may be making maybe lol.
Becasue not playing TC-1 might mean leaving in any neg RC.
What makes you think he does know those things? lol.
Although, as far as heat goes, he absolutely could get no better advice about that than from you IMHO. You should have a feel about that as good as anyone I'd imagine lol.
Although, like you say, both are just guesses I guess. But I do have reasons, of some kind, when I guess
You hit the nail on the head - it is so easy to do with a simulator you'd think more would actually use one, maybe lol.
Hi Buddah - sorry for the post above lol - hadn't gotten to this post of yours yet when I said that lol.
The irony here is, I don't have a sim and so can't run one for you.
iCountNTrack
Well-Known Member
Sorry but this is not true, indices will increase your EV substantially at negative counts (albeit it will still be negative),
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount3.htm
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
The following is from the "Blackjack in Color" reference, cited above by iCountNTrack.
The accompanying graph is interesting.
The accompanying graph is interesting.
"The more indexes that a card counter uses, the higher the advantage. So obviously the advantages at each true count must change. This chart shows the advantages by true count ... In all cases, the trend is higher advantage at higher counts and the more indexes the higher the advantage. But the effect of using more indexes is different at different counts. At a count of zero it makes little difference as you are playing very close to Basic Strategy. At higher counts, we see that the most important 22 indexes supply most of the gain. In fact at True Counts of +4 and +5 the red and green lines are very close. This is important since TCs of +4 and +5 should be where most of your max bets are placed. At the very low counts, full indexes make a much larger difference.
I don't know - it seems to me that chart only indicates the reduction in -%EV at extreme -counts.
From a card-counting point-of-view- since those extreme counts occur so rarely and, when they do a min bet is out, I just can't see it having a large effect on avg +EV.
I'm just not sure I'd give a rat's ass of having a only a -5% EV at -TC16 while using 100 indexes as opposed to having a -10% EV at -16 using I18 indexes with a min bet out.
And, that's me not giving a rat's ass - think about that lmao.
How much difference in avg +EV would you say there is in this 6D game?
Actually, just curious lol. No big deal.
I'd probably book my ass out of there anyway, even playing-all, at some count way less than TC-10. Even flat-betting, voodoo, counting and only-using-indexes, sometimes, jerks like me draw the line somewhere lol.
Often I leave at -TC8, absolutlely nuts for the insanity I have witnessed up until then.
Come back at top of next shoe and wife tells me how berry, berry, good it was as soon as I left. Tells me, why don't you just play somewhere else anyway - things are great when you are not around.
I love my wife - can't quantify that one - way beyond "100%" or "infinity" of course -$1 to whomever first guesses what I did going forward :grin:
That night:
Did I leave at +EV's after that to, metaphysically speaking, screw my wife keeping in mind we have separate bank accounts?
Did I continue to do the same disciplined boring thing, ignoring her, as I was already doing to achieve and be able to measure my results from what I already was expecting?
Did I just never leave no matter what the count?
Did I just never play at the same table with her again?
Man am I goofy tonite lol.
Just a guess lol.
Becasue he specified no roll, no game, no pen, no points of ramp when he would bet how much on his way to 5-120 or 10-120.
Becasue it seems unlikely to me both scenarios would produce an equal risk or even the same $points of ramp although it seemed he could be implying a same ramp.
Becasue he seems to think twice as many units in a roll is the same as half as many units in a roll.
Becasue someone who did know wouldn't perhaps be asking about heat with a $5 unit realizing how little he may be making maybe lol.
Becasue not playing TC-1 might mean leaving in any neg RC.
What makes you think he does know those things? lol.
Although, as far as heat goes, he absolutely could get no better advice about that than from you IMHO. You should have a feel about that as good as anyone I'd imagine lol.
Although, like you say, both are just guesses I guess. But I do have reasons, of some kind, when I guess
You hit the nail on the head - it is so easy to do with a simulator you'd think more would actually use one, maybe lol.
Yeah man no need to be a prick. And obviously I am a novice and that's why I am asking these questions, but if you feel cooler by showing off to a message board then more power to you.
Sorry you took it that way. My profound apologies.
I was just responding to kewlj why I thought you appeared rather obviously to me to be a novice and had no idea of EV, etc. lol.
Guess I arrived at the right conclusion.
Ask kewlj why he didn't think you were a novice so maybe you will feel better.
I don't care - follow or don't follow my advice based on its merit - you seemed to think I had made a "good point" at one point lol rather than ignoring the advice based on your later opinion of me being a prick or whatever.
I regret I took the time to respond to you. No worries mate, it will never happen again.