6:5 or even money?
- Thread starter WABJ11
- Start date
Dealer has one of thirteen down cards. Nine will pay 6-5, four pay nothing.
On a $10 bet, you'd recieve $120 for your nine wins, zero for your ties.
If you took even money on all thirteen, you'd have $130, so it appears even money would be the better option. IF my math is correct.
On a $10 bet, you'd recieve $120 for your nine wins, zero for your ties.
If you took even money on all thirteen, you'd have $130, so it appears even money would be the better option. IF my math is correct.
NightStalker
Well-Known Member
obviously yes
Taking Even money is +EV in 6:5 game..
Taking Even money is +EV in 6:5 game..
No, not even remotely close. It's been discussed with numbers here before.
ArcticInferno
Well-Known Member
It can be mathematically proven that even money and insurance are identical.
Insurance is a side bet regarding the likelihood of a ten being in the hole.
The 6:5 blackjack pay out doesn’t affect/influence/change the likelihood of a ten being in the hole.
What is the probability of a ten being in the hole? Well,... what’s the count?
Why do you ask such question only when an ace is showing?
Why not ask “Is there a ten in the hole?” all the time?
Because that’s the nature of the game, silly.
Anyway, the 6:5 blackjack pay out rule doesn’t affect the insurance side bet.
Insurance (or even money) is only a side bet; nothing more.
Does the dealer’s outfit affect the probability of a ten being in the hole?
Does the cocktail service affect the probability of a ten being in the hole?
The ratio of the tens to non-tens of the remaining deck composition is the only factor that indicates the probability of a ten being in the hole.
The rules, regardless of how awful they are, doesn’t affect the probability of a ten being in the hole.
So, take insurance (or even money) only if the count warrants it.
Remember, you’re not insuring your hand. You're making an independent side bet regarding the probability of a ten being in the hole.
End of discussion.
Insurance is a side bet regarding the likelihood of a ten being in the hole.
The 6:5 blackjack pay out doesn’t affect/influence/change the likelihood of a ten being in the hole.
What is the probability of a ten being in the hole? Well,... what’s the count?
Why do you ask such question only when an ace is showing?
Why not ask “Is there a ten in the hole?” all the time?
Because that’s the nature of the game, silly.
Anyway, the 6:5 blackjack pay out rule doesn’t affect the insurance side bet.
Insurance (or even money) is only a side bet; nothing more.
Does the dealer’s outfit affect the probability of a ten being in the hole?
Does the cocktail service affect the probability of a ten being in the hole?
The ratio of the tens to non-tens of the remaining deck composition is the only factor that indicates the probability of a ten being in the hole.
The rules, regardless of how awful they are, doesn’t affect the probability of a ten being in the hole.
So, take insurance (or even money) only if the count warrants it.
Remember, you’re not insuring your hand. You're making an independent side bet regarding the probability of a ten being in the hole.
End of discussion.
NightStalker
Well-Known Member
You are wrong
Go figure yourself. Even money == insurance only in 3:2 games.
Try asking for even money on 6:5 games at strip, dealer will decline your request.. Error is your post is very trivial. I am trying to help you out in understanding errors in your post. Good luck in figuring that..
Numbers for single deck CSM(first hand), heads up first hand, basic EV::
Player bets 100$, get a blackjack and dealer shows an ace::
Even money, player EV= 100$
Declined Even money on BJ pays 3:2, player EV= 104.08$
Declined Even money on BJ pays 6:5, player EV= 83.26$
Taking Even money on 6:5 is 17% +EV..
and -4% EV in 3:2 games.
Go figure yourself. Even money == insurance only in 3:2 games.
Try asking for even money on 6:5 games at strip, dealer will decline your request.. Error is your post is very trivial. I am trying to help you out in understanding errors in your post. Good luck in figuring that..
Numbers for single deck CSM(first hand), heads up first hand, basic EV::
Player bets 100$, get a blackjack and dealer shows an ace::
Even money, player EV= 100$
Declined Even money on BJ pays 3:2, player EV= 104.08$
Declined Even money on BJ pays 6:5, player EV= 83.26$
Taking Even money on 6:5 is 17% +EV..
and -4% EV in 3:2 games.
Simply Wrong on so many counts, no pun intended.
If you want to see that insurance and even money are not the same thing, here is a very simple way to do it. Find a video BJ machine that allows both.
Play two hands. On one hand take even money whenever its offered, on the other take insurance whenever it is offered. Play for about eight hours, or long enough to get a few hundred hands that had a dealers Ace. you'll see that your money is equal on both hands, but the hand where you took insurance will have earned more comps, as you put more money at risk.
As far as insuring a BJ on a 6:5 table, simply do the math. It is much better to insure or take even money in such a game. You forgot the most important part of the equation. The payout does effect your decision.
I think you missed his point. Besides, your statement is wrong anyway. At the end of eight hours your money does NOT rate to be equal. In the 1st instance, you'll be making a -EV bet (even money) only about once every 350 hands or so; in the 2nd instance, you'll be making the same -EV side bet once in every 13 hands. Because of this, the 2nd instance rates to lose significantly more than the 1st.
NightStalker
Well-Known Member
Slight correction
Insurance is always bad as basic strategy - it is a side not to be confused with the game. It does effects the variance but not the EV.
Even money is special on 6:5 game, it is way better than Insurance here..
Your bet of 100$ on 6:5
Did you see the difference, why even money is not same as taking insurance on 6:5game? Isn't it clearly obvious that Even money is win-win scenrio over insurance here..
Insurance is always bad as basic strategy - it is a side not to be confused with the game. It does effects the variance but not the EV.
Even money is special on 6:5 game, it is way better than Insurance here..
Your bet of 100$ on 6:5
- For insurance of 50$ on blackjack on 3:2,
- Dealer has bj: Win 100$
- Dealer does not has bj: win 100$ (150-50)
- For insurance of 50$ on blackjack on 6:5,
- Dealer has bj: Win 100$
- Dealer does not has bj: win 70$ (120-50)
- Taking even money on blackjack,
- Dealer has bj: Win 100$
- Dealer does not has bj: win 100$
Did you see the difference, why even money is not same as taking insurance on 6:5game? Isn't it clearly obvious that Even money is win-win scenrio over insurance here..
ArcticInferno
Well-Known Member
NightStalker you're right.
First, the concept of insurance and even money are mathematically identical.
When you play the insurance side bet when you have a blackjack, the name of the side bet changes from “insurance” to “even money”. Rose by any other name,...
The insurance is an independent side bet that has nothing to do with your hand. You’re not insuring your hand, but rather, you’re betting that there is or isn’t a ten in the hole, so you need to assess the probability of a ten being in the hole.
The reason for my “mispost” previously was because, as NightStalker said, the mix up between 3:2 vs 6:5 games.
If the insurance payout is 2:1, then you play the insurance side bet when the probability of a ten being in the hole is approximately 50%, which is when the true count is approximately 3 or so. At true count higher than 3, the chance of a ten being in the hole is greater than 50%, so the 2:1 payout is a great side bet.
In a game where the blackjack pays 6:5, if the dealer shows an ace while you have a blackjack, the insurance side bet payout change briefly during that moment. For a brief moment when the dealer shows an ace and you have a blackjack, the insurance pays 5:1 rather than 2:1. If the insurance side bet pays 5:1, then play the side bet when the probability of a ten being in the hole is 20% or greater. At what count is the probability of a ten being in the hole 20% or greater? When the count is negative. So,... basically, take even money at the 6:5 game.
First, the concept of insurance and even money are mathematically identical.
When you play the insurance side bet when you have a blackjack, the name of the side bet changes from “insurance” to “even money”. Rose by any other name,...
The insurance is an independent side bet that has nothing to do with your hand. You’re not insuring your hand, but rather, you’re betting that there is or isn’t a ten in the hole, so you need to assess the probability of a ten being in the hole.
The reason for my “mispost” previously was because, as NightStalker said, the mix up between 3:2 vs 6:5 games.
If the insurance payout is 2:1, then you play the insurance side bet when the probability of a ten being in the hole is approximately 50%, which is when the true count is approximately 3 or so. At true count higher than 3, the chance of a ten being in the hole is greater than 50%, so the 2:1 payout is a great side bet.
In a game where the blackjack pays 6:5, if the dealer shows an ace while you have a blackjack, the insurance side bet payout change briefly during that moment. For a brief moment when the dealer shows an ace and you have a blackjack, the insurance pays 5:1 rather than 2:1. If the insurance side bet pays 5:1, then play the side bet when the probability of a ten being in the hole is 20% or greater. At what count is the probability of a ten being in the hole 20% or greater? When the count is negative. So,... basically, take even money at the 6:5 game.
NightStalker
Well-Known Member
true
At 6:5, even money pays 5:1 while insurance still pays 2:1
You got it right
At 6:5, even money pays 5:1 while insurance still pays 2:1
You got it right
NightStalker
Well-Known Member
Zero
Well-Known Member
Wait, wait. This whole time I've thought this thread was just silly, uh, I mean, theoretical. Even money in 6:5 blackjack... yeah right. But unless I've missed the sarcasm in Sucker's message... are you saying there are casinos that offer even money in 6:5 games?!?
0
WABJ11
Well-Known Member
Wait, wait. This whole time I've thought this thread was just silly, uh, I mean, theoretical. Even money in 6:5 blackjack... yeah right. But unless I've missed the sarcasm in Sucker's message... are you saying there are casinos that offer even money in 6:5 games?!?
0
Come to our home game, but my night banking I won't be offering even money anymore.
A 6:5 home game? Words just fail me...
