51%

[Automatic Monkey]

AM:

Is that a guess or a fact? The decision to split or not split aces comes up when sequencing and I've been curious how much not splitting costs me.

Anyone have further information on the loss in EV for not splitting vs each dealer upcard?

PM's welcomed.

It's a fact. Your choice to not split aces is a very expensive guess. The only time you would consider not splitting aces is against an ace, if you had count information too and the count was horrible, or if you had 10% of your BR out there.

 

[zengrifter]

It's a fact. Your choice to not split aces is a very expensive guess. The only time you would consider not splitting aces is against an ace, if you had count information too and the count was horrible, or if you had 10% of your BR out there.

I hit AA often with small bets out to create super-keycards.
It looks pretty lame and I never ran a sim to see if its too costly. zg

 

[HockeXpert]

I hit AA often with small bets out to create super-keycards.
It looks pretty lame and I never ran a sim to see if its too costly. zg

We think alike ZG.

Anyone have any info on the loss in EV of not splitting vs the added EV of a super keycard? I never was very good at math:grin:

 

[Sonny]

Anyone have any info on the loss in EV of not splitting vs the added EV of a super keycard? I never was very good at math:grin:

The penalty from not splitting aces ranges from 22% to 52% based on the dealer's upcard, but the hand is rare enough that if you always hit it you will only add about 0.18% to the house edge. The conditional penalty, given that you have already been dealt the hand, is about 34-35% of your (hopefully minimum) bet. This is where we have to start making some assumptions. IF we assume that hitting the A,A instead of splitting will allow you to get the second ace on the following round AND that the player would not normally be able to sequence the second ace if he split AND that the player has a 65% hit rate then the additional EV (not including the EV from the initial sequenced ace) from not splitting A,A is around:

0.65 * 0.51 - 0.345 = -0.0135

So the flat betting player's EV drops by 1.35%. Obviously these numbers are very rough and they don't take into account the fact that the player will bet higher when the ace is coming. I also don't claim that the assumptions are at all realistic, but you can use the numbers above to get a ballpark figue for various situations. Just plug in your own bet spread and hit rate to see how you stand. I got the numbers using Cacarulo's EV charts (Archive copy) in case anybody wants to expand them a few decimal places or look at different numbers of decks. The above numbers were from a DD H17 DAS game.

-Sonny-

 

[HockeXpert]

Very much appreciated, Sonny!!!

Thanks a million. Well, at least 100K.