Full DD Table vs. Open 6D Table?

Southpaw said:
On average, the TC will indeed stay at 12. This does not mean that the paint is not going to be hitting the table, though; indeed your RC will be on the decline as the shoe goes on, but the divisor will also drop at such a rate that the TC, will on average, stay the same.

Seriously, do think hard about this. It is a concept that really was solved a long time ago, although it is still continuously pestered with the same erroneous arguments.

Spaw
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Actually it's based on faulty reasoning and logic. Cards come out randomly, not equally throughout the shoe. Otherwside the TC would never increase nor decrease, but it does, doesn't it, and that's why we count cards. Obviously a true count of 12 cannot remain a true count of 12 down to the last card. The only thing we can know with any degree of certainty is that the TC will be zero before the first card is burned and it will be zero after the last card is dealt, if the dealer were to deal out all of the cards (or undefined or infinite or whatever you want to call it, it really doesn't matter what you call it at this point because the shoe is done and we'll be starting over).
 
I think what your missing is that the TC Theorem speaks of the average count, not what is actually happening during play. Yes, the TC goes up and down. That's how we know our advantage.

The point of the TC Theorem, if I have it right, is it proves that everyone at the table has an equal shot at getting the same cards at the start of a new round.
 
Southpaw said:
Indeed, the average true count for any given round will be zero, but that is certainly, absolutely, positively not to say that the TC will tend towards zero, once the TC has become large in magnitude.

Spaw
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See Isaac Newton. What goes up must come down. Laws of motion and laws of card counting are quite similar in many respects.
 
ohbehave said:
I think what your missing is that the TC Theorem speaks of the average count, not what is actually happening during play. Yes, the TC goes up and down. That's how we know our advantage.

The point of the TC Theorem, if I have it right, is it proves that everyone at the table has an equal shot at getting the same cards at the start of a new round.
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That may be, but that isn't the point we're arguing here, which makes the whole TC Theorum irrelevant. We're not talking about an average we're talking about the unknown.
 
21gunsalute said:
Actually it's based on faulty reasoning and logic. Cards come out randomly, not equally throughout the shoe. Otherwside the TC would never increase nor decrease, but it does, doesn't it, and that's why we count cards. Obviously a true count of 12 cannot remain a true count of 12 down to the last card. The only thing we can know with any degree of certainty is that the TC will be zero before the first card is burned and it will be zero after the last card is dealt, if the dealer were to deal out all of the cards (or undefined or infinite or whatever you want to call it, it really doesn't matter what you call it at this point because the shoe is done and we'll be starting over).
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The only faulty reasoning is this notion that TC's tend towards zero (after a high magnitude TC has been built) as the shoe depletes.

In our case of a +12 TC, when there is one card remaining, the TC must either be +52, -52, or 0, but it will be more often be +52 (the last card is a 10 or ace) than -52 (the last card is 2-6), so that it will average out such that the TC, when only one card remains is, on average, +12.

Cards, most times, do not come out of the shoe in a perfect distribution, but when a large TC has accumulated, the TC will not tend towards zero as cards are taken out of it. It is completely incorrect to suggest that it will.

Spaw
 
21gunsalute said:
That may be, but that isn't the point we're arguing here, which makes the whole TC Theorum irrelevant. We're not talking about an average we're talking about the unknown.
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Thats the beauty of it. The unknown is partially known in the fact that each round has an average TC=0.

If the average round is TC=0 and the current round finishes TC=12 the next round, on average, will finish TC=12. Its why one can wong out of a tanker and not be concerned that the shoe will come back.

Also there was some discussion concerning where to sit and my point had relevance to that discussion, if not to your point.
 
Thanks for all the great discussion. Now on to the next question... If the casino is busy and you are forced to choose between a crowded DD table and a crowded 6D table, which do you go for?
 
blacksprite said:
Thanks for all the great discussion. Now on to the next question... If the casino is busy and you are forced to choose between a crowded DD table and a crowded 6D table, which do you go for?
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No brainer, you go for the crowded DD table. A heads up 6d game can give you lots of pleasure when you get a good count, but when the table is full you can see a giant count be gone in the blink of an eye when the whole table gets 20.

On the DD game however, if the cut card comes out right after the first card you will see some very good pen to act on if on third base.
 
Blue Efficacy said:
No brainer, you go for the crowded DD table. A heads up 6d game can give you lots of pleasure when you get a good count, but when the table is full you can see a giant count be gone in the blink of an eye when the whole table gets 20.

On the DD game however, if the cut card comes out right after the first card you will see some very good pen to act on if on third base.
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I respectfully disagree. I NEVER play a full DD table. You just don't get enough rounds to offset the -EV hands. Even if you're at third base, your bet is already out by the time you make your play and those 12-15 cards in front of you can make you play your max bet with a very negative count. A full 6D table is less than ideal, but playable.
 
blacksprite said:
Hi! Rookie on the boards here! I am a relatively new counter using KO preferred. I play casually and am up 600 units since I started counting a year ago. I am now looking to further my knowledge of counting and stumbled upon the boards here.

My local casino only has one DD table (H17, DOA, DAS) which is where I typically play. Lately, I've become frustrated with how crowded the table has become. Counting and bet variation is obviously much less useful when there are multiple other people at the table as the count can completely swing by the time I get my cards. As a result, I've found myself decreasing my ramp from 1:10 to 1:5 when the table is crowded because of my uncertainty. My question is how much does it hurt my odds having multiple other people at the table. Is there ever a point where it becomes advantageous to leave a crowded DD table and move to a less-crowded 6D table? Is it foolish to change my betting ramp depending on the number of other players at the table? After reading these forums, I'm going to begin spreading to more hands when playing with multiple other people to help counter some of the problem. Unfortunately, this will require me to bet 2x the table minimum per hand which will stress my limited bank roll.

As a side-note, I've noticed that using just BS, the expectation changes according to the number of decks being played. To me, this makes sense if one is counting, but how does it affect expectation when playing by basic strategy alone? The decks still contain the some proportion of cards and your chance of receiving any given card is always the same with each turn if you aren't counting. Maybe I'm missing something...

Thanks in advance!
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Your WR becomes less affected, by the number of plyrs, as the number of decks increase. In MD theres not that big of a difference.

If you are ramping your 1:10 as follows(DD)

+1/2u
+2/5u
+3/7u
+4/10u

Then simply capping your Maxbet(same ramp) with a 12 unit bet, would yeild a higher WR, with 5 plyrs at the table, than a 1:10(above) would playing heads up. System: hi-lo.
 
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ohbehave said:
Thats the beauty of it. The unknown is partially known in the fact that each round has an average TC=0.

If the average round is TC=0 and the current round finishes TC=12 the next round, on average, will finish TC=12. Its why one can wong out of a tanker and not be concerned that the shoe will come back.
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Only by definition, which was established and is based on faulty/incomplete information.
 
Southpaw said:
This quote has no relevance what so ever to the discussion.

Spaw
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Actually it has everything to do with the discussion. What goes up must come down. A high count must trend back toward zero if a significant number of cards have been played since it must eventually reach zero, and the more cards that have been played, the more likely the count is to drop. One unseen card may not make a difference in determining the true count, but many unseen cards will since we know that the shoe must eventually reach a count of zero. Basing the true count on incomplete information about unseen cards makes it to be not a "true" count at all. You can make the argument that all those unseen cards basically just makes it a shoe with poor penetration, but who would play a game with a shoe of 50% or less penetration? And why would anyone risk anything on such a great unknown factor? Doing so would totally defeat the concept of card counting. We try to base our decisions on known information, not on large unknown factors. A gambler makes decisions on large unknown factors, not an AP.
 
Okay, I've been gone for a while and I just realized that I've been posting to a different thread than I thought I was. I thought this thread was a discussion about what to do when you have to leave a table during a high count and then return after a couple of decks have been played. I'm going to leave my comments up though because I think they're still fairly relevant to this particular conversation, although not quite as relevant as I thought when I made them.
 
Which Game to Play

Is always a function of rules, penetration, heat, table crowds, spots open, and speed of play.
&
Where the Ho's at
thats what she said

Let's take a stab at an illustration of the TC theorem

You start a shoe at rc 0 & tc 0
first deck is seen
5 decks to go
rc 20 tc 4
From this point forward on AVERAGE you will have 4 extra high cards per remaing decks. If you think of each card chopped up in a million pieces they would be evenly distributed.

Now you play another deck
4 decks to go
rc 4 tc 1
Based on actual seeing of the cards everything has changed. From this point on AVERAGE moving forward you would have 1 extra high card per deck.

If you got to the end of the shoe and saw every card you would finish with RC 0.

If you run a sim the player sitting to the left always does slightly better in SCORE because he sees a few more cards for making strategy changes. Multiple sims of billions of hands show that the player sitting to the left has a slightly higher SCORE

I wonder what would happen if you misssss:confused::eek::rolleyes::devil::cry:
 
21gunsalute said:
Okay, I've been gone for a while and I just realized that I've been posting to a different thread than I thought I was. I thought this thread was a discussion about what to do when you have to leave a table during a high count and then return after a couple of decks have been played. I'm going to leave my comments up though because I think they're still fairly relevant to this particular conversation, although not quite as relevant as I thought when I made them.
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I can visualize people reading my comments, scratching their heads and saying "What the hell is he going on and on about?" Good argument, wrong thread. Oh well, we all make mistakes. ;)
 
I'd play the empty 6D table. I get frustrated playing with others at a single or double deck table since the count changes so rapidly. But given the choice between a full DD table and a full 6D table, I'd choose the poker table!
 
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