How much edge for i lose when i spread 1-4 vs 1-5 DD, Standard Vegas rules

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bj4life

Member
hi all,

Been counting for about 2 years and have had some success. Nothing to write home about but average WR of about 1.7 bets per hour over 500+ hours. I usually play short sessions.

I usually spread 1-5 but I hit a rough spell and was losing a lot of big bets. I for some reason went to a more conservative strategy and move down to 1-4. I was hoping someone could walk me through the edge i am leaving on the table by doing this.

Also, could someone please let me know if a 1-4 would draw any noticably less heat?

thanks in advance.
 
I can't tell you that, but I can tell you how to make a 1-4 spread a winning spread. If you have a game that is around .5% HA (H17, DOA), and the pen is 65%,

if you bet 1 unit at 0% advantage and below, 2 units at .5% advantage, and 4 units at 1% advantage and above,
your winning % should be around .63% or about 1 unit an hour, according to a chart prepared by Arnold Snyder.

At 50% pen, it drops to .39%, or .58 units an hour;

and at 75% pen, it rises to .97%, or 1.8 units an hour.

If you drop to a 1 to 3 unit spread,

at 50% pen, your win rate would drop to .22%,
at 65% pen, to .42%, and
at 75%, to .75%.

In real estate they say, "Location, location, location." I think a good rule of thumb in blackjack should be, "Pen, pen, pen!"
 
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Thanks for your helpful reply.

So in theory my advantage is bigger to spread 1-5 but I can assume it is the .2% range and not much more than that?

Side note - pretty sure I'm getting 70% pen.
 
Why do you want to use such a small spread? Why not go to a lower limit table and use a bigger spread?
 
i didn't realize 1-5 is a small spread for DD. isn't 1-6 the standard? Also, it's easier to get headsup at a higher limit table.
 
bj4life said:
i didn't realize 1-5 is a small spread for DD. isn't 1-6 the standard? Also, it's easier to get headsup at a higher limit table.
Click to expand...
Yes 1-6 or 1-2x4, but on most, less than top-shelf, games I'd go 1-2x5 or 2x6, or do a lot of exiting. zg
 
bj4life said:
i didn't realize 1-5 is a small spread for DD. isn't 1-6 the standard? Also, it's easier to get headsup at a higher limit table.
Click to expand...

You are right from what I have learned, 1 to 6 in short sessions is about what most casinos will tolerate. A strong system will make a nice profit at this level. Some try weak PE systems in DD and can't make much at this level. In an attempt to rationalize a bigger spread they may say it is OK to use one. If you use a bigger spread expect heat and getting 86ed. You can add a side count or 2 to raise PE.
 
Thanks again for the advice.

The reason i have dropped to 1-4 because of the heat i've been getting. i got 86'd after one shoe. i did win 13+ units and only used a 1-4 spread.

I have gotten flat bet at a few places. I have been playing an average of 3 DD shoes. Basically anytime once i get some big bets out. Am i staying too long? maybe even playing too short? i usually have a good cover story.

Also, by exiting, do you mean sitting out a few hands or actually leaving?

thank you.
 
This is getting hard to win

I was in Vegas last weekend...Downtown...I have been away for over six months...6/5 EVERYWHERE...NO playing an extra hand when you get a card count...I.E.---No mid round entry...But the worst was---I was not allowed to bet more than three times the previous bet...And...single decks---rarely more than three hands...regardless of the amount of players...I had a tough time!!!
 
bj4life said:
Also, can i send PM's on this forum?

and is 1-6 tolerable for quarters? can i play black? purple?

thanks.
Click to expand...

Don't let your max bet exceed $500 in large casinos on the Strip, then you will be OK.

On the Strip, this is quite acceptable spread on DD:

$25 to $300
$50 to $400
$100 to $450 (I think $100 to $600 is still OK. But I will cap max bet to $450 when the pit boss is watching.)

The sweet spot is $50 to $400 spread. Better do it $25x2 to $200x2. If TC turns very negative, bet just one hand $25.
 
aslan said:
I can't tell you that, but I can tell you how to make a 1-4 spread a winning spread. If you have a game that is around .5% HA (H17, DOA), and the pen is 65%,

if you bet 1 unit at 0% advantage and below, 2 units at .5% advantage, and 4 units at 1% advantage and above,
your winning % should be around .63% or about 1 unit an hour, according to a chart prepared by Arnold Snyder.
Click to expand...

aslan, this sounds encouraging. For longevity and heat reasons, if we can still win 1 unit an hour spreading 1-4 at DD, that's a good thing. As a recreational player, I would be happy with a 1 unit an hour winrate. $50 an hour if our unit size is two greens ($50) and $100 an hour if our unit size is one black ($100)? This is higher than my long-term winrate at 20-40 fixed limit hold 'em of one big bet per hour ($40). Your post got me thinking about devoting more hours to blackjack.
 
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