Thats why in high counts you should start spreading to 2 hands or more, it lessens the ugly negative variance.
MY First Counting Trip
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Thats why in high counts you should start spreading to 2 hands or more, it lessens the ugly negative variance.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
Originally Posted by GeorgeD View Post
When the count is going DOWN is when you should win. Now if only we could predict that!
we can?
must be one of the black arts?
When the count is going DOWN is when you should win. Now if only we could predict that!
We can, but it takes a lot more effort.
-Sonny-
we can?
must be one of the black arts?
Sonny
Well-Known Member
we can?
Good old fashioned shuffle tracking. Once you know where those hot slugs are, you'll know right when the count is going to drop.
Actually, any card location technique will achieve this to some degree. After all, sometimes you only need the count to drop by 1 (an ace or ten as your first card) to give you a sizeable edge.
-Sonny-
This doesn't even bother me anymore... :devil:
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
does this mean you've reached a low point or a high point in your counting career?
or perhaps found a new level of enlightenment....
A new level of enlightenment... just because all those tens were stuck behind the cut card does not mean I won't ever get to see them hit the felt...
Thanks all. I wandered and watched again last night (NO playing at all) and when I go back on Monday, I plan to change things up. I found two tables of 4 deck, and the dealers were all cutting out a bit less than a half-deck. I am considering wonging these tables, however-they are H17, but they DO offer surrender. Am I safe in assuming that a cut-off of a half-deck and surrender will make this worth wonging in? (I can't wong out, as I will be playing on a limited-yet replenishable-bankroll, and the table min. is $10.00.) I have the charts at home to check, but home is a couple of more weeks away yet.
Again, my goal is really to learn, so I'm more interested in not losing every penny I have right now, rather than making a gazillion dollars. (I'll do that after I learn everything
-Eric
Again, my goal is really to learn, so I'm more interested in not losing every penny I have right now, rather than making a gazillion dollars. (I'll do that after I learn everything
-Eric
Interesting. Wish I had done this last week....
I tried again last night, same place, same rules, etc. etc. but THIS time I decided that I would only play on positive counts. Still being new, I decided that I would also just flat bet one unit. So, my results were:
4 hours, 19 free sodas, 1 (very good) patty melt later, I had managed to wong into just 6 positive shoes, one of which I only played 3 hands before leaving. My best session? Up 13 units. My worst? Down 10. Walked away UP 11 units total. I was QUITE pleased! (No, not a lot of money, but I DID manage to prove to myself that it really does work! And I see a MAJOR difference from playing perfect BS and counting from the top of the shoe and losing 50 units in about an hour like last week and playing only positive counts and MAKING money, instead!)
Interestingly enough, where I lost the 11 units I watched until the count went positive. At that exact same time, 3 of the 4 players at the table left, so I jumped in-and the count kept climbing, which of course meant I kept losing! And wouldnt you know, after I'd laid what would become my 11th unit loss, 4 people walked up and sat down (I was at 3rd base) and proceeded to take just about every high card in the deck!!!! (They all won, I of course lost my 17 vs. dealer 18!) And the shuffle came, so I bailed!
Making me wonder-on another thread they are arguing the merits of 3rd vs. any other base. When wonging, it looked like I would have been better off playing first. Unless I hear differently, I am going to assume that there would be no difference, rather just personal preference? (I'm also thinking about the shoe where I played just 3 hands-winning two-when the count dropped again. I was at 1st base there, and caught the few cards that caused it to drop.
Interestingly enough, I was counting one shoe, it was towards the end of the shoe, the count took a GREAT leap, so I jumped in. 4 hands later with the count still positive, the dealer deals blackjack-to all 4 of us sitting there, and deals himself 16! THAT made us all want to cheer!
Anyway, I have learned a lot from all of you by reading, and great tanks to Ken for allowing this to happen. Now I practice for another month and bring up a proper bankroll for a smallish spread (maybe 1-4) and do that "wong" thing again....
And after 19 free sodas, I didn't have to fake any "bathroom breaks"
-EPS
I tried again last night, same place, same rules, etc. etc. but THIS time I decided that I would only play on positive counts. Still being new, I decided that I would also just flat bet one unit. So, my results were:
4 hours, 19 free sodas, 1 (very good) patty melt later, I had managed to wong into just 6 positive shoes, one of which I only played 3 hands before leaving. My best session? Up 13 units. My worst? Down 10. Walked away UP 11 units total. I was QUITE pleased! (No, not a lot of money, but I DID manage to prove to myself that it really does work! And I see a MAJOR difference from playing perfect BS and counting from the top of the shoe and losing 50 units in about an hour like last week and playing only positive counts and MAKING money, instead!)
Interestingly enough, where I lost the 11 units I watched until the count went positive. At that exact same time, 3 of the 4 players at the table left, so I jumped in-and the count kept climbing, which of course meant I kept losing! And wouldnt you know, after I'd laid what would become my 11th unit loss, 4 people walked up and sat down (I was at 3rd base) and proceeded to take just about every high card in the deck!!!! (They all won, I of course lost my 17 vs. dealer 18!) And the shuffle came, so I bailed!
Making me wonder-on another thread they are arguing the merits of 3rd vs. any other base. When wonging, it looked like I would have been better off playing first. Unless I hear differently, I am going to assume that there would be no difference, rather just personal preference? (I'm also thinking about the shoe where I played just 3 hands-winning two-when the count dropped again. I was at 1st base there, and caught the few cards that caused it to drop.
Interestingly enough, I was counting one shoe, it was towards the end of the shoe, the count took a GREAT leap, so I jumped in. 4 hands later with the count still positive, the dealer deals blackjack-to all 4 of us sitting there, and deals himself 16! THAT made us all want to cheer!
Anyway, I have learned a lot from all of you by reading, and great tanks to Ken for allowing this to happen. Now I practice for another month and bring up a proper bankroll for a smallish spread (maybe 1-4) and do that "wong" thing again....
And after 19 free sodas, I didn't have to fake any "bathroom breaks"
-EPS
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
That's exactly what I was wondering. Ouch.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
That makes sense. I was trying to watch how many cards were left before the shuffle card last night as well. I almost got into one shoe that hit a positive count, but when I looked over at the discard tray to estimate what was left, I realized it was an 8-deck shoe, and I had been backcounting it as a 6 deck shoe. Luckily, I didn't get in, and the count never did go positive for an 8 deck.
Thanks for the insight, tho. I'll add it to the things I've got to be aware of.
I thought that I was supposed to be aware of cute coctail waitresses, also, but I found one dealer who did that for me. I was watching him, and then I started watching what HE was watching-his head never moved off of the table unless a short skirt with long legs walked by!
Thanks again for the advice!
-EPS
My main question is how do u get a waitress to come by every 12 minutes lol.
Just wanted to say you could probably finish 11 or more units up after 4 hours playing 100 hds/hr 30% of the time.
But you probably did it playing maybe 100 hands or so? Anyway, like u say, counting will work!
Please, please have an adequate bankroll and don't overbet!
I estimated that I played around 80 hands total. I know, not enough to make any judgements on. But I wanted to get some 'real-lfe' practice in, hence the flat one-unit bet. I'll be back in a casino area next month, and intend to do nothing but wong again, but I'll spread my bet THIS time to correlate with the BR I have.
And yes, I'll only be taking what I'm comfortable losing.
Oh, I didn't use the waitresses. I kept going to the 'self-serve' drink area. Mostly to have something to do while standing around waiting for a + count!
-EPS
I knew a waitress never comes by every 12 minutes
If only they had a self-serve vodka section.
And there's nothing wrong with flat-betting while wonging. Can be quite effective actually since no one would dream ur counting with a flat-bet all the time.
Yeah, but now I need to know how to figure what is the ultimate bet for BR on just flat bet wonging. Is there a formula for this strategy??
-EPS
Well, as always, it would depend at what point u wong-in with at what game.
As an example, maybe u wong-in at TC+1 with a $10K roll spreading 1-12 in a 4.5/6, S17,DAS, LS game so ur unit would be $43.
But, say you spread only 1-2 in the same game but enter at TC+2. Now ur unit is $116 with the same risk of ruin and 88% of the 1-12 win rate. Perhaps not bad considering you are only doubling your bet.
Enter at TC+2 and flat bet and ur unit would increase to $152 and u would still win 73% of the 1-12 rate flat-betting.
Increase your original $10K bankroll by a third and now ur winning at the same rate as the 1-12 spread flat betting $200 with the same ROR.
Not sure there is a formula - buy a sim and explore!
Tried-I have a mac, still trying to talk Norm into writing it for one. But your information was helpful, and I'll grab a pencil and try a couple of things!
Thanks!
-EPS
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
do you have an intel chip? if yes, use boot camp or parallels, if no get virtual PC. if both those options stink, you could buy a cheap box for like $100-200 which would probably be cheaper than either of those two software options as you would have to buy a copy of windows too.
re-writing that program for mac users like us, would probably not be worth it from a financial point of view, unless he wrote the code from the ground up with more platforms in mind.
Yes, I have the intel chip. I was ust stalling waiting for Mac to get the last of the bugs out of bootcamp, plus hoping against hope for a Mac CVCX program!
Oh well, I guess I'm at that point where I may as well invest!
-EPS
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
just get boot camp or parallels. i don't have either yet, but for running this program this route would be the best. i'll have a new pbook in the fall, which is when i plan on buying CVData.