RoR on Two Hands

K

Krainn

Member
Hi,

So some background before the question. I've got a 3000 dollar bankroll at the moment and am unable to play a 5 dollar minimum table because, with the absence of surrender and H17 ridden casinos around me, I would be left with upwards of 40% RoR. At a 3 dollar table with the still crappy rules yet still positive EV (I'm really just trying to get practice in), my RoR is down to around 20%. I want to reduce my RoR even more, so here's the question: if my betting ramp goes +1=6, +2=24, and +3 above =36 (CVCX), would I be able to decrease the RoR by splitting to 2x3 at +1, 2x12 at +2, and 2x18 at +3 above?

Thank you.
 
Yes. EV will remain the same and ROR will go down. But you can have much less than 40% ROR at $5 table with 3k bankroll. What are rules and penetration?
 
The following spread should give u only 2.3% ROR for 3k bankroll :


TC 1 : 5
TC 2 : 10
TC 3 : 15
TC 4 : 20
TC 5 : 30
TC 6 : 35
TC 7 : 45
TC 8 : 50

This is for a six deck, H17, DAS, DA2 no surrender game with a 1.5 decks cut off.


It assumes you are wonging in at TC +1 and not playing negative counts.
 
Thank you Meistro,

I'm playing with the rules you mentioned in your comment (ouch I know)

The ramp you gave me is much appreciated !
 
Meistro, isn't that betting ramp a little too slow? True counts of +8 happen less than 1 percent of the time. I also think that most people advocate for a 1 to 12 spread in a 6 deck shoe, not a 1 to 10. How would a betting ramp of TC +1 = 15 TC +2 = 30 TC +3 =45 and TC +4 = 60 look on his ROR? I expect it to be pretty high because it's way above Kelly. I'm also assuming he wongs at +1.
EDIT: Thinking about it now, would he even have an advantage at a true count of +1? If he's using the standard hi lo then the house will still have an advantage at a tc of +1. (Because for each tc of +1 the house edge decreases by 0.50% and the house edge for the game he's playing is about 0.57%)
With this in mind he might want to wait to +2 to wong in and adjust the rest of his bet sizing accordingly.
 
Betting more than Kelly is irrational and counter productive for the purpose of bankroll growth.

Under an illiberal H17, DAS rule set the player has a very modest advantage at TC 1 (an average of 0.15% over the whole bin). So raising your bet at TC +1 would be ill advised, although with more liberal rules it would be recommended.

TC 2 : 0.69%
TC 3 : 1.25%
TC 4 : 1.82%


I recommend purchasing CVCX so that you can answer these questions yourself.


Your bet ramp is too steep. The most you would want to bet at TC 4 is 1.365% of your bankroll (full kelly). So $40 is the maximum one might want to bet at TC +4. But you could definitely want to bet less than that in order to minimize swings. My ramp appears to be a pretty reasonable half kelly. I also do not see why you would bet the same at TC +4 as you would at TC +8 when your advantage is more than twice as great.
 
You bring up some good points. Are you sure the player has an advantage at a tc of +1 though? In the hi lo count the player gains a 0.50% advantage for each true count of +1. With a house edge of over 0.50% it seems like a tc of +1 wouldn't get over the house edge. How do I buy CVCX? Do you have it? Do you recommend it?
 
Meistro said:
Under an illiberal H17, DAS rule set the player has a very modest advantage at TC 1 (an average of 0.15% over the whole bin). So raising your bet at TC +1 would be ill advised, although with more liberal rules it would be recommended.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. I have S.17 but ENHC. I ignore +1
 
Ultimately you do need to sim the game you are playing to determine your advantage or lack thereof at a given true count.
 
Yes your edge in a H17 game will be so slight at TC +1 that you should probably not increase your bet. S17 is a different story.
 
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