IMHO it is hard to get my head around the idea that Kelly betting is the fastest way to grow your BR and here is why. I have stuck in my head memories of many times I have run into a rising count and keep building my bets sometimes walking away with 150 units in one 6d shoe. It just feels so counterintuitive to not push a bit more money out there when the table is hot and the stacks are mounting. I suppose I just have to use restraint and always stay at or below full Kelly in order to reap the decent probabilities of doubling before halving my BR. I suppose its the only way I can get out of the ghetto. I just wish I could understand the why better.
Rewiring your brain
- Thread starter Dopple
- Start date
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
This is truly a "gem", Don.
You run hot, until you don’t. What happens when you stick bets that are too big out there according to your roll because the table is “hot”, and then you get your ass kicked?
Bet above full Kelly and your bankroll grows more slowly. Bet beyond double Kelly and ruin is imminent.
Bet above full Kelly and your bankroll grows more slowly. Bet beyond double Kelly and ruin is imminent.
You most likely were not counting when this happened. You are playing disadvantage rounds each round the running count rises. It is only on a falling RC that you have played an advantage round. You bet in anticipation of what is likely to happen. But your actual advantage for any round played can only be determined in retrospect. This would seem to render counting ineffective, except that counting works in the long run. Over time you will see what is expected as you average all the rounds played together. It is only over a large number of bets that counting separates itself from gambling. The gambler in you assumed that winning is associated with a rising count. The truth is winning is more likely on a falling RC round no matter what the TC was at the start of the round. Losing is more likely on a rising RC round no matter what the TC was at the start of the round. That is because a falling RC is what is expected to happen in a high TC and a rising RC is what is expected to happen in a negative TC. The round that lowered the RC is representative of what you expect in a high TC and a round that raised the RC is representative of what you expect in a negative TC.
So it is far more likely that the winning run was on a stretch that the running count was falling. The TC may or may not be doing the same. If you think about that your concept of a hot table and cold table will not hold up to what is actually going on.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
Let the forum note, Dummy is the same person who has said in the past that negative rounds for him are +EV because all the big cards came out such as tens and aces. While that is partially true, in the LONG RUN, as you tried to mention in your last post, it is -EV, and is a complete contradiction to what you wrote in the past. It's about the long run right? So why did you feel the need to say on other forums under your Tthree handle that negative rounds are +EV just because you got the big cards? In the short run, yes they are huge +EV rounds if you get a 10 or an ace as your first card you have anywhere from a 10-52% edge after seeing that as your first card, but in the long run IF you're counting, that's all irrelevant because it's a negative round and you'll more often than not in negative rounds see a lot more smaller cards and stiffs thus resulting in negative expectation. Also the running count can fall for a particular round with you still having a bad hand such as a stiff vs a dealer face, for example (10 value card and a 5 for a total of 15 v a dealer Ten or Ace). Just because the running count fell for that round, doesn't always mean you're getting soft doubles, 19's, or 20's or naturals. So when that happens, was that a +EV round for you just because the running count fell? NOPE. Again, we are JUST discussing card counting. If you're doing something more advanced, all these stats such as your first card expectation or negative rounds, etc are meaningless since you will have access to different information.
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ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
To the OP, I sure hope this is a troll post because it sounds so problematic and is why blackjack is still offered today and why card counting was the best thing to ever happen to casinos, at least the smart ones that dont have a heart attack about someone raising their bet with the count. Your post was so sad and I'm not saying this to belittle you. Got to make sure I say that in this 'soft' society where everyone is offended by everything rather than just thanking someone for constructive criticism and setting them straight.
Ignorance is so prevalent in society today. I just don't understand how people can go into a casino and not be armed with as much information as possible before placing a bet with their hard earned money, regardless of whatever game they're playing. Even if you don't understand the math behind something, how can you not use your head to think critically about a particular situation such as the subject that the OP raised above? That's god's gift to all of us. USE YOUR BRAIN to think CRITICALLY. Don't you think that raising your bet more than your initial set spread simply because the count is rising will skyrocket your risk of ruin and eventually lead you to going broke? Do you think you're supposed to win every single bet in blackjack just because you have a measly 1-3% edge in the forthcoming round? Don't you think casinos would be bankrupt by now if that was the case? I mean use your head man. You also mentioned winning 150 units one time, what about the other times? Don't act like a gambler who is completely short-sighted and only realizes what is happening in that moment in time such as someone taking the dealers bust card etc. You then also say something about getting out of the ghetto? I mean really? Why even try to crack a joke about that? You're just making fun of yourself, which is even more pathetic. How about you focus and actually get out of there if this is even a real post to begin with and not a troll. Go work 2 jobs if you have to, save up, learn everything about the game while you're working in the meantime, and play on the side after work.
Like everyone else has said, your post sounds horribly problematic and shows a lot of ignorance about playing this game with an advantage. Hope you understand what we're telling you and you eventually have success.
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You bet in anticipation of what cards you are expecting to hit the table on the next round. The advantage you actually had on that round in retrospect depends on the count the cards where representative of not the count of the pack the cards were pulled from. Maybe you have heard of shuffle tracking. They may be counting and know all the remaining cards average to a big disadvantage but bet big because they know the next round is representative of a what you would expect in a positive pack of cards. I point this out because it has its uses when you play. If you can't figure out how to use this to your advantage or are a casino employee trying to dig for info I am not going to explain how you can use this to your advantage. Many people use this fact to make their spreads appear smaller than they are and generate more longevity. It is about the long run and getting there while playing a game that isn't made worse because you are playing is about making appearances seem different than they are. It is the art of being a profitable card counter. Someone that doesn't believe in cover and can't get away with playing in a casino without getting the tap wouldn't have learned this very important AP skill. Most here understand exactly what the value is and how to use it to your advantage. Not all advantage is about EV.
The point that obviously escapes you is you bet in anticipation of what you think the next round's composition will be but your actual advantage for that round depends on the cards that came out during that round and what count that is representative of. Look up shuffle tracking. You might start to understand the concept that your advantage on the next round isn't the same as the average advantage for the rest of the cards. The long run is about that average after many thousands of rounds have been played but the actual advantage on any given round is about the cards that come out that round. Understanding the possibilities and making bets so how you react to them puts you in the strongest position is key.
I think one of the best quotes from Bigplayer that you should ponder is, "To be successful at card counting you need to raise your bet in anticipation of having an advantage after the next round is played". Why do you think he would say that? There are 3 reasons:
1) The difference between your waiting bet and the bet you may need to make is large enough that you need to make a bigger bet to make the raise reasonable enough that it doesn't cause you heat.
2) The next round might make the count fall, in which case you made a raised bet into a round that was representative of an advantage deck composition.
3) The next round may make the count raise to the point that increasing your waiting bet to the appropriate bet would bring undo heat.
Are the wheels clicking now or are you so set on being a computer when you play that you don't get that will quickly get you booted and have the games you see when you show back up be not worth playing?
Hell'nBack
Well-Known Member
I never make the King's Bounty side if the K of spades is gone. If the two Kings are dealt, it may in fact grace the dealer's hand but I was a contender for the 100-1 pay off.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
Thanks for illustrating everything i already alluded to before you posted. I mentioned multiple times that I understand that a round can be +ev in a megative count in retrospect but you have serious reading comprehension issues and listen to reply rather than listening to understand. I mentioned time and time again that if you get a ten or an ace or even a 9 as your first card you have the advantage that round regardless if its a negative round. I dont know why you then try to ignore what I said and then say I dont understand the concept. You just love to argue and try to make yourself feel smarter but luckily im here for every new player trying to see the light.
You also then completely ignored everything I stated about you contradicting yourself, I wonder why.
Because this isn't what I am talking about. I am talking about what the advantage for a deck that was representative of the cards in the round. Not your advantage based on the first card you get. An advantage round is different than an advantage hand or card. I told you to think ST. If you knew the next round was representative of an average round from an high TC you would bet into it no matter what the TC was because it is representative of a round from a high TC. Unless you are ST you can't bet into that round but you can bet a higher bet based on what you will do if the count goes up and the fact that if the count goes down it was an advantage round. That is two out of the three things that can happen. That is why Bigplayer gave that advice as very important advice to follow to be successful counting cards.
If you understood my comments you would know they did not contradict each other. That is why I ignored it. You obviously don't understand my comments. Your response shows you still don't understand my comments. You try to approach counting like a science when it is an art. A scientific approach will have you getting the boot repeatedly and your face being on the podium in every pit and every surveillance room. understanding the art of counting will allow you to be tolerated in most places, at least for a good amount of time. Sure betting and playing like a computer has the most EV until it has no EV because you can't play anymore. Then the artist quickly ends up with more EV. The hardest thing is not to generate a lot of EV. It is generating enough EV while still being allowed to play unmolested. I think you never figured that one out.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
And yet I have no problem getting as many hours as i want in vegas purely backcounting. So much for all this wonderful bullshit cover that is spoken about so much on these forums. Glad i took my own advice and developed my own approach. If I wasnt so paranoid about casinos cheating me in this town, these casinos would never know what hit them using my my document and rotation of stores with my backcounting playing approach and short sessions.
If only people listened to me about how to approach the game, they would get the most EV possible and still get away with it. But i guess theyre better off listening to fake players like yourself. I wouldnt be surprised if im one of the highest earning solo card counters thats ever lived and ive only played close to 1300 hours. Lots of fake stories and fake players on these forums and youtube podcasts thats for sure. Not to mention how I did it as well, never asking for a handout or loan or mortgage to finance my play. Wont find many people that couldve done what ive done, especially at my age.
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Aren't you the one posting a thread about how you can't play without being kicked out of the casinos? Now who is contradicting themselves. Perhaps delusional is a better description.
The fact that you think truly successful players results are fake shows how poor your results are. The only reason you believe they are fake is you do so poorly by comparison. You say they can't do that good because you are the best and do so pitifully by comparison. I heard the same from my detractors. I post I have a way to fly under the radar and make a high EV without large swings. They deny that and through a hissy fit. Then two years later they say how doess a red chipper have such a big BR now. He is obviously full of shit. The obvious conclusion is that what I said is accurate and after two years I had mad hundreds of thousands of dollars and had stopped red chipping shortly after my initial reveal posts. I am sure these other posters you speak of had similar success stories. Sure luck helps especially in the beginning but then skill prevails. You just whine about how bad your luck is all the time and how you don't need cover and whine more about not being able to play anywhere. If that is what you think being successful is you can have it. It has no appeal for me. I see success as winning lots of money while burning the fewest bridges possible.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
You must have the wrong person. Not once have I ever said Im having trouble playing without getting kicked out. But whatever floats your boat to try and argue with me to support the 'you need cover' argument garbage. Oh, you made hundreds of thousands red chipping? LOL. Maybe you should go on GWAE and tell your fake story like yoshi did. That will be good for ratings and promotion of GWAE.
Oh my results are poor? I have made now close to 60k profit after around 1250 hours. Sounds about close to EV doesnt it? For someone that has bet close to 2x200 on average? So much for poor results. Go ahead and tell me the % return or ROI from starting with 3 to 4k? Wow. Can you imagine if I actually felt like playing more?
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No. I said I made my post about what I came up with when shortly after I said I was a red chipper. Idiots assumed I would always be red chipping and some still domake that assumption. If what I said was right I would not red chip for long and make a lot of money using my approach. That is what I did. Why would you think I would red chip for long if I was consistently winning money without any severe downswings? That is the same thing the other idiots assumed. That doesn't make sense. If you make money consistently you keep raising your bets until you feel raising them more will cause more trouble than it is worth.
If your EV is under a measly $50/hr. If you play for meaningful stakes it should be at least double that. Until you say what stakes you play at I don't know if that is good or bad. If it is good it is too bad you never made a better BR. You would have made at least double that. Results should be measured in rounds not hours. Hours are a meaningless metric.
I won't tell you how much I started y experiment with. You wouldn't believe it anyway. It is a small percentage of what you started with. Making that work is luck as much as anything. I am sure you have seen bad enough swings to wipe out your seed BR just as I did. We were just lucky that didn't happen before we made our BRs grow to much larger amounts.
psyduck
Well-Known Member
Don't you think every counter understands that? The problem is you don't know what cards will come out during that round until after the fact unless you ST. Are you telling your team to bet large when the count is low?
I explained how it is useful. I quoted BigPlayer thoughts on what was very important for a counter to be prepared to do in order to succeed and explained why it isn't as costly as many think. If you don't understand how the information proves useful in counting I am not going to get more specific. BigPlayer didn't explain it probably for the reason we are seeing now. Some people don't understand the difference between playing on a computer and playing in a casino and can't think outside that box. You have to weigh the cost and pros and cons of things that allow you to do what you want without getting tossed. I don't like having to be so specific that I educate the casino lurkers. I expect counters to have at least a little casino smarts and connect the dots. I know some are newbies and some just play like the casino is a computer and are pretty clueless about the subtleties of casino play needed to play for larger stakes without drawing unwanted attention.
When you don't have an advantage there are three possibilities for your bet after the next round. If the count is close to an advantage bet count a disadvantage round (one that has more low cards than high cards) could make the count become an advantage count. The difference between your waiting bet and your unit bet (bet you make with a 0.5% advantage) is greater than a reasonable bet jump you should make a bet that would make the bet jump look reasonable.
In this case three things can happen on the round you bet slightly bigger on. The first is the count goes up due to that round being a disadvantage round and you need to make that big bet increase you prepared for. If so you have the appropriate bet out to make the bet jump without drawing unwanted heat. The second the count tanks because the round was an unanticipated advantage round. If so you bet a slightly more aggressive for one round and got to play an advantage round rather than the expected disadvantage round. The third is the count doesn't change much and you played a slightly bigger bet on a near neutral round. Two of the three possibilities are helping you with your goals. One helps make your needed bet jump while not attract unwanted attention. Another allows you to sneak in a slightly raised bet on an unanticipated advantage round and adds to EV in the long run. The third has you getting no benefit from making the slightly raised bet.
So two out of three possibilities work to your advantage but one doesn't help you. To a computer guy or someone betting small the benefit is largely unseen. These types struggle to be successful. To a guy with a large top bet that must be concerned about appearances to play for any length of time the benefits are quite valuable. If you can't see that you really don't understand how to generate a high EV and be tolerated doing it. If you are playing for higher stakes playing like a computer will get you the boot fast. You need to find ways to do the things you want without looking like you have a flashing neon sign on your head that says counter without costing much while benefiting you in other ways besides just EV or allows you to increase EV without hurting longevity. If you play for lower stakes you may not become aware of what you have to deal with until you start playing for higher stakes. The casino will look at you and act upon what you do quite differently once you bet size is perceived to be at a threat level.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
Are you seriously blind or do you just cherry pick lines of text to try and argue with me? I clerly told you how much I bet already. On average its been 2x200 max bet after resizing down and up throughout, thats about right.
I also wasnt 'lucky' to grow my bankroll. I used to red chip very early in my career where i dropped maybe 2k or 3k when I first started out. I then decided to learn as much about the game and join the forums, learn indices etc. I made that amount back, while working two jobs simultaneously. I then took about 3k liquid while still keeping my jobs and played on the side and made about 20k in the first 300 hours or so. I then dropped the 20k right back in the next 150 hours or so. So after EVERYTHING including my red chip loss and gain back i was BREAKEVEN after about 600 hours. Let that sink in. How many counters would have kept playing? Another reason why im the best. You always hear the ones who stuck with it 'got lucky' at the start. Yeah, not me, still overcame it though.
I didn't say you were lucky to grow your BR. I said we were lucky not to bust out. I started my experiment with my count with $800 seed money. I had more money but was only going to risk $800 toward a new experimental approach that had never been tried. I never needed to add any money to the seed BR. After a lot of play you should have seen you were lucky that downturn didn't happen out of the gate and cause you to lose your BR. That was my point. If you don't realize that you haven't learned much from playing. I know I was very lucky that every substantial loss was bookended by bigger wins so they were just a blip that was immediately erased. A string of losses would have wiped me out. I certainly saw losses after my BR grew enough that would have wiped me out earlier. So you say you started with around $3K and you had a bad swing of around $3K but you weren't lucky the way the wins and losses hit along the way that allowed you to stay alive? Delusional is definitely the right term.
Your hourly should be over twice what it is for that average top bet. Fix the holes in our game or your approach to playing. I know you are full of shit anyway because I have read your posts of losing high 4 figures or 5 figures to one casino in one day. You said that happened overtime you played at the, and they were cheating you. So you are either full of shit or completely delusional. One truth in life is people see the world as a reflection of themselves. You see all the successful counters as being full of shit. I wonder why that is what you see when you look at them. It is your reflection. I see dedicated counters that were lucky out of the gate and learned from their losing experiences rather than accuse the casinos of cheating. This allowed them to be even better as they went forward. You are so full of yourself you could never see how you were fucking up to learn from it. It was always someone cheating you because you are the best in your mind and can't get any better. I am constantly searching for new innovations and more creative approaches and trying to make my play stronger. Those that think they have nothing to learn never learn anything. Those that are the best are usually the best because they always seek to improve themselves causing them to constantly get better.
Your hourly should be over twice what it is for that average top bet. Fix the holes in our game or your approach to playing. I know you are full of shit anyway because I have read your posts of losing high 4 figures or 5 figures to one casino in one day. You said that happened overtime you played at the, and they were cheating you. So you are either full of shit or completely delusional. One truth in life is people see the world as a reflection of themselves. You see all the successful counters as being full of shit. I wonder why that is what you see when you look at them. It is your reflection. I see dedicated counters that were lucky out of the gate and learned from their losing experiences rather than accuse the casinos of cheating. This allowed them to be even better as they went forward. You are so full of yourself you could never see how you were fucking up to learn from it. It was always someone cheating you because you are the best in your mind and can't get any better. I am constantly searching for new innovations and more creative approaches and trying to make my play stronger. Those that think they have nothing to learn never learn anything. Those that are the best are usually the best because they always seek to improve themselves causing them to constantly get better.