A tale of variance.

xengrifter said:
Even if the sims showed otherwise, I personally would be more confident with the 4D offering.

I miss the 4D game at the old MGM Grand, dealt face down like a pitch game, it was marvelous.

Back in those days, faithful to Revere, I only bet by running count. My betting schedule was engraved on a lighter... Nowadays such a schedule would be better suited engraved on a vape!
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Yup. 6-deck slightly better, in the above.

Not just MGM. Sands, Tropicana, Frontier, Caesars, Hilton. 2-deck games at Riviera and Maxim. What am I leaving out? I used to go over Christmas and Easter school breaks and in the summertime. The glory days of the game: mid-'70s and '80s.

Don
 
DSchles said:
Not just MGM. Sands, Tropicana, Frontier, Caesars, Hilton. 2-deck games at Riviera and Maxim. What am I leaving out?
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I mostly avoided them, there were always one and two decks to play.... The MGM stands out, because it was dealt face down pitch from the shoe, which I felt more comfortable.
 
xengrifter said:
There is something very voodooish sounding about this talk vis-a-vis that 8D being better than 6D...
... I would take a 75% 4D game over a 90% penetration 8D game any day.
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I play a fake 4 deck by waiting until the 1st 2 decks come off a nice pen 6 deck game. Normally nothing's happening in that first couple decks anyway.
 
DSchles said:
Yup. 6-deck slightly better, in the above.

Not just MGM. Sands, Tropicana, Frontier, Caesars, Hilton. 2-deck games at Riviera and Maxim. What am I leaving out? I used to go over Christmas and Easter school breaks and in the summertime. The glory days of the game: mid-'70s and '80s.

Don
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Do you guys actually play entire shoes? I would be scurred of all that negativity :oops:
 
xengrifter said:
There is something very voodooish sounding about this talk vis-a-vis that 8D being better than 6D...
... I would take a 75% 4D game over a 90% penetration 8D game any day.
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Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck :D
 
Raven said:
I play a fake 4 deck by waiting until the 1st 2 decks come off a nice pen 6 deck game.
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When you say that you are waiting until the 1st 2decks come off, I assume that you are Wonging in knowing the composition make up of the remaining four decks correct?

Raven said:
Normally nothing's happening in that first couple decks anyway.
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You would be surprised by all that extra smaller positive EV that is obtainable early in a shoe at times.
 
BoSox said:
When you say that you are waiting until the 1st 2decks come off, I assume that you are Wonging in knowing the composition make up of the remaining four decks correct?
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Raven said:
Jyessss
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No disrespect Raven but you only been a member for two months with only fifty-some odd posts to the handle. For all, I know, or anyone else knows you could be just starting out, and I was just trying to be helpful.
 
Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck :D

It appears your preference for 8 vs 6deck play is a result of pareidolia and conformation bias. I could be convinced if you showed me the math.
 
Backbayal said:
Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck :D

It appears your preference for 8 vs 6deck play is a result of pareidolia and conformation bias. I could be convinced if you showed me the math.
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The math is easy to confirm: In a 75%-pen 6-deck game, the player has the edge 27% of the time, while in a 75%-pen 8-deck game, the player has the edge 25% of the time. Naturally, the latter comprises more favorable hands, because there are more decks shuffled to begin with, but that isn't the point. We win more money at the 6-deck game, using the same spread for both.

What do have comparable win rates are the 4.5/6 game and the 6.5/8 game.

Don
 
DSchles,

Thanks for the confirmation (spelled it right this time.) What about 8deck with 5 deck penetration. Don't ask me where I play! They also have a $220 max on 10-25 min tables.
 
That is $200 on 10-25 tables. On the good side they deal very slow and are usually crowded. This gives me time to take off my socks so I can count to 22.
 
Backbayal said:
DSchles,

Thanks for the confirmation (spelled it right this time.) What about 8deck with 5 deck penetration. Don't ask me where I play! They also have a $220 max on 10-25 min tables.
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Totally unplayable. THREE decks cut off? Can't win enough to pay for parking.

Don
 
Shoe games, both 6 & 8 deck, I require a Minimum of 75% penetration. 75% is a very mediocre game. You should be able to find better than this. And @75% pen, I am NOT playing all. Aggressive Wong out.

Occasionally I will go 70-72% on a 6 deck game, IF there is something special like LS, or a heads up situation.
 
BoSox said:
No disrespect Raven but you only been a member for two months with only fifty-some odd posts to the handle. For all, I know, or anyone else knows you could be just starting out, and I was just trying to be helpful.
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Why would you think you were being disrespectful? I knew your intent. Thank you. Starting out though? More like ready to call it quits hahaha
 
Backbayal said:
Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck :D

It appears your preference for 8 vs 6deck play is a result of pareidolia and conformation bias. I could be convinced if you showed me the math.
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It's a preference for more positive EV hands. Of course I would play more 6D, and do play more, if conditions allow. Unfortunately I can only back count for so long before I have to drink some water and play with my pork knuckle.
 
Backbayal said:
That is $200 on 10-25 tables. On the good side they deal very slow and are usually crowded. This gives me time to take off my socks so I can count to 22.
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You want the fastest dealer you can find, and not crowded. You are slowing your win rate considerably on slow crowded tables.
 
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