A tale of variance.

[DSchles]

Even if the sims showed otherwise, I personally would be more confident with the 4D offering.

I miss the 4D game at the old MGM Grand, dealt face down like a pitch game, it was marvelous.

Back in those days, faithful to Revere, I only bet by running count. My betting schedule was engraved on a lighter... Nowadays such a schedule would be better suited engraved on a vape!

Yup. 6-deck slightly better, in the above.

Not just MGM. Sands, Tropicana, Frontier, Caesars, Hilton. 2-deck games at Riviera and Maxim. What am I leaving out? I used to go over Christmas and Easter school breaks and in the summertime. The glory days of the game: mid-'70s and '80s.

Don

 

[xengrifter]

Not just MGM. Sands, Tropicana, Frontier, Caesars, Hilton. 2-deck games at Riviera and Maxim. What am I leaving out?

I mostly avoided them, there were always one and two decks to play.... The MGM stands out, because it was dealt face down pitch from the shoe, which I felt more comfortable.

 

[Raven]

There is something very voodooish sounding about this talk vis-a-vis that 8D being better than 6D...
... I would take a 75% 4D game over a 90% penetration 8D game any day.

I play a fake 4 deck by waiting until the 1st 2 decks come off a nice pen 6 deck game. Normally nothing's happening in that first couple decks anyway.

 

[Raven]

Yup. 6-deck slightly better, in the above.

Not just MGM. Sands, Tropicana, Frontier, Caesars, Hilton. 2-deck games at Riviera and Maxim. What am I leaving out? I used to go over Christmas and Easter school breaks and in the summertime. The glory days of the game: mid-'70s and '80s.

Don

Do you guys actually play entire shoes? I would be scurred of all that negativity

 

[Raven]

There is something very voodooish sounding about this talk vis-a-vis that 8D being better than 6D...
... I would take a 75% 4D game over a 90% penetration 8D game any day.

Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck

 

[BoSox]

I play a fake 4 deck by waiting until the 1st 2 decks come off a nice pen 6 deck game.

When you say that you are waiting until the 1st 2decks come off, I assume that you are Wonging in knowing the composition make up of the remaining four decks correct?

Normally nothing's happening in that first couple decks anyway.

You would be surprised by all that extra smaller positive EV that is obtainable early in a shoe at times.

 

[Raven]

When you say that you are waiting until the 1st 2decks come off, I assume that you are Wonging in knowing the composition make up of the remaining four decks correct?

Jyessss

 

[Raven]

You would be surprised by all that extra smaller positive EV that is obtainable early in a shoe at times.

Do you mean the high card bursts I always wish I was playing when the shoe quickly drops back to zero?

 

[xengrifter]

I play a fake 4 deck by waiting until the 1st 2 decks come off a nice pen 6 deck game.

Oy vey!

 

[BoSox]

When you say that you are waiting until the 1st 2decks come off, I assume that you are Wonging in knowing the composition make up of the remaining four decks correct?

Jyessss

No disrespect Raven but you only been a member for two months with only fifty-some odd posts to the handle. For all, I know, or anyone else knows you could be just starting out, and I was just trying to be helpful.

 

[Backbayal]

Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck

It appears your preference for 8 vs 6deck play is a result of pareidolia and conformation bias. I could be convinced if you showed me the math.

 

[DSchles]

Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck

It appears your preference for 8 vs 6deck play is a result of pareidolia and conformation bias. I could be convinced if you showed me the math.

The math is easy to confirm: In a 75%-pen 6-deck game, the player has the edge 27% of the time, while in a 75%-pen 8-deck game, the player has the edge 25% of the time. Naturally, the latter comprises more favorable hands, because there are more decks shuffled to begin with, but that isn't the point. We win more money at the 6-deck game, using the same spread for both.

What do have comparable win rates are the 4.5/6 game and the 6.5/8 game.

Don

 

[Backbayal]

DSchles,

Thanks for the confirmation (spelled it right this time.) What about 8deck with 5 deck penetration. Don't ask me where I play! They also have a $220 max on 10-25 min tables.

 

[Backbayal]

That is $200 on 10-25 tables. On the good side they deal very slow and are usually crowded. This gives me time to take off my socks so I can count to 22.

 

[xengrifter]

What about 8deck with 5 deck penetration.

Unplayable...
.... Unless some other enhancements are available, like cut off tracking, etc.

 

[DSchles]

DSchles,

Thanks for the confirmation (spelled it right this time.) What about 8deck with 5 deck penetration. Don't ask me where I play! They also have a $220 max on 10-25 min tables.

Totally unplayable. THREE decks cut off? Can't win enough to pay for parking.

Don

 

[KewlJ]

Shoe games, both 6 & 8 deck, I require a Minimum of 75% penetration. 75% is a very mediocre game. You should be able to find better than this. And @75% pen, I am NOT playing all. Aggressive Wong out.

Occasionally I will go 70-72% on a 6 deck game, IF there is something special like LS, or a heads up situation.

 

[Raven]

No disrespect Raven but you only been a member for two months with only fifty-some odd posts to the handle. For all, I know, or anyone else knows you could be just starting out, and I was just trying to be helpful.

Why would you think you were being disrespectful? I knew your intent. Thank you. Starting out though? More like ready to call it quits hahaha

 

[Raven]

Is it voodoo? I play the true count regardless but I definitely get more positive EV action in 8D. They both tank negative about the same, and waiting around backcounting they are similar, but when crunch time comes, I get a lot more rounds in 8D. Six deck to me "feels" more like 15 decks lol. It's just zero and negative for hours. Sometimes it will go crazy past true +10 +12 but I usually get my ass handed to me then. I think it's safe to say I suck at 6 deck

It appears your preference for 8 vs 6deck play is a result of pareidolia and conformation bias. I could be convinced if you showed me the math.

It's a preference for more positive EV hands. Of course I would play more 6D, and do play more, if conditions allow. Unfortunately I can only back count for so long before I have to drink some water and play with my pork knuckle.

 

[Raven]

That is $200 on 10-25 tables. On the good side they deal very slow and are usually crowded. This gives me time to take off my socks so I can count to 22.

You want the fastest dealer you can find, and not crowded. You are slowing your win rate considerably on slow crowded tables.