Wary of high some counts

[aslan]

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

 

[Bojack1]

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

To answer your first question, no. If the count is high I am confident that I will play as I should. It doesn't mean I can't get a disappointing result, but that just comes with the territory. I would never flatbet or change my thinking during what I have deemed to be an advantageous situation. I would tend to believe that uneasy gut feelings and other things of a sub concious level, might be a way of saying to yourself maybe I'm not sure if this is betting situation is what it appears to be. That could be manifested from past large losses during times of advantage bets, or not being totally sold on your abilities at the table. I truly believe that those feelings go hand in hand. You can lie to yourself to a point, but you can not lie to your subconcious. If you are not all in on the concept of your AP system, no amount of talking about it will make those feelings go away. Bad losses can leave a bad taste in your mouth, but if you conciously or subconciously feel poor play may have been the cause of it, then you will lose the ability to shake off bad losses. Whats even worse is that you could also start chalking up wins to luck and unknowingly start losing faith in your system. I have read many people here say they would rather be lucky then good. If you are any kind of AP thats crap. Its true on any given day a lucky person will beat a good one, but I don't live for any given day, I live for everyday. Good luck can become bad luck at any given time without warning, real skills are constant and more conducive to the long term and more along the guidelines of how an AP should think. Don't get me wrong I think we all need some good luck sometimes, I just wouldn't want to have to depend on it. Also I find those that really excel at something tend to be the luckiest. Coincidence?

 

[21forme]

Maybe I should start following my gut.

Do we need to hit you over the head to knock some sense back into you?
We've all had those sessions when you expect and want the paint, but you get the 2s and 3s. It just hurts more, and you're more likely to remember it, when the big bets are out.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Also I find those that really excel at something tend to be the luckiest. Coincidence?

Vince Lombardi summed it up best when he said "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity".

 

[mdlbj]

do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count?

Yes.

Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?[/

If you feel uneasy about placing larger bets when the count calls for them, it could be that you are not comfortable risking money at all.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Aslan, I think you know better than to follow your gut. What I suggest is that you lower your risk of ruin and use a smaller top bet because you aren't comfortable at your current level and you are letting your emotions get in the way. I see it all the time with commodity traders. Believe it or not your goal should not be to make money at blackjack but it should be to execute your positive EV system flawlessly. When this happens you will achieve happiness at the game and the money will just follow.

 

[aslan]

Yes.




If you feel uneasy about placing larger bets when the count calls for them, it could be that you are not comfortable risking money at all.

Doesn't everyone love a sure thing? I always try for the sure thing in all my pursuits, but that doesn't mean I don't have the balls for taking some risk here and there. I think what drives this question is the belief that the subconscious mind sees more than our conscious minds and this kind of "hunch" could be a whole lot more than "luck." I bet zg knows what I'm talking about if he wants to weigh in. Sometimes it seems like de javu, but I just keep throwing more cheques on the fire. lol You see, my educated mind won't give in to my mystical nature, or some such bull*rap, so unless someone can speak to this "second sight" phenomenon, I will continue taking the good with the bad so to speak.

Scientifically speaking, maybe our subconscious mind zeroes in on certain clumps or sequences of cards that never got properly shuffled and are now repeating. That would be a plausible explanation, at least as good as the one that says I'm just afraid to take risks.

 

[aslan]

Vince Lombardi summed it up best when he said "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity".

Yes! That's especially true of things requiring physical dexterity such as football or billiards. To that I can attest. The better player always seems to get the rolls.

 

[sagefr0g]

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

yep, that's how it goes alright.

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.
Albert Einstein

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.
Albert Einstein

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein"

lol, that last quote is a doozy when it comes to playing blackjack isn't it?
but thats whats weird about blackjack. in the short run you never really know what to expect but over time the hazyness of expectation becomes a little less blurry lol.
the whole premise with respect to orthodox counting is to get the money out there in the positive counts. the idea being that you will have money out there when you get more blackjacks, sucessful double downs and sucessful splits whereas you will win more money against the normal hands you've played and lost money with. conclusion, if you want the expectation that orthodox counting affords then you need follow it's strictures.
sounds funny comming from me i know. lol

 

[eps6724]

Maybe I should start following my gut.

No, no, NO! It's not "follow my gut", it's:

GO WITH GUTZ!

Brought to you by the committee to never forget the Lucky Ned thread!:grin:

 

[aslan]

yep, that's how it goes alright.
.....................................................................
sounds funny comming from me i know. lol

lol That's where I come out on it, too. I love the Einstein quotes, which I have read before, but they always seem to apply to any discussion of the so-called real world. lol

 

[Automatic Monkey]

You have to realize that the best counts we normally see on a night of counting only give us an advantage of 2-3%. You can't notice changes that subtle. If I were to show you two lightbulbs, one 3% brighter than the other, you couldn't tell me which one was the brighter one with your eyes. Human perception can't pick up differences like that, which is what you are trying to do when you try to correlate your results with the count.

 

[sagefr0g]

lol That's where I come out on it, too. I love the Einstein quotes, which I have read before, but they always seem to apply to any discussion of the so-called real world. lol

well as i'm sure you know i do subscribe to making decisions. but that is only because i choose to live in warmer fuzzier world than that of my cold calculating bretheren. lol
i guess another way of saying that is ignorance is bliss. roflol

 

[ihate17]

One reason why most who try counting lose

Have you ever come into a high count that you just felt queasy about? Sometimes, a high count has all the earmarks of just what you're been waiting for. But at other times it just seems like a trap. It probably starts off with the dealer winning the first two or three hands in the positive count. The cards don't seem to be favoring most of the players, blah, blah, blah. I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!" So, did you ever just flatbet a high count or do you just mechanically throw in the higher bets as you would for any other positive count? Could the uneasiness be generated by something your subconscious mind sees but that your consicious mind overlooks? Personally, I have always just thrown in the bigger money, but invariably lost in these situations. Maybe I should start following my gut. What say thee?

Aslan

Failure to properly spread is a major reason that I think that most people who attempt counting land up being long term losers at the game.
If it is the amount of money that you might lose by losing several consecutive max bets, then if you wish to overcome this, lower your minimum bet and still spread X times and bring it up as you gain confidence.

You also have to overcome your gut. Have you ever read Dr Jacobson's book, "The Blackjack Zone?" If not, I think you should get it. In my opinion it is written for someone like yourself. Someone who has a desire to play blackjack correctly but can not get past some of the superstitions that follow the vast majority of players at the tables. Not a book for expert play, but a book to help you set a foundation where expert play can later be built.

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

Unless you time travel to the 50's and have the deck dealt to the very end, there's still plenty of mixed cards left in the shoe, capable of having all kinds of crazy hands play out. The same crazy hands you can see in any other count.

In other words, I just bet mechanically according to the count and hope for the best. My gut knows nothing.

 

[aslan]

I appreciate all of your comments. I can't help but notice that they all have one piece of advice in common, even sagefr0g, and that is to ignore the gut feeling and always follow the count. That's what I do, but as I said, I often have second thoughts. No more. No more second thoughts. No more attention to gut feelings. No more hypotheticals. Just do it...and may the fruits of the count be always with you! lol

My winning sessions are now 41 as opposed to 7 losing sessions. You have convinced me that counters simply must accept the fact that there will be some losing sessions. There's just no way around it, that is, there is nothing within our power that we can do to change it.

 

[Tarzan]

Unbeatable dealer syndrome

I mentioned about this on another post, how being WAY in the advantage zone does not neccessarily mean that you score in the short term. You are 4 decks into the 6 deck shoe, there are 17 more little cards in the discard rack than facecards, so you pump it up only to have the dealer slam out non-stop 20, 21 and blackjack many hands in a row and you get stiffs and break every hand. You hit your steady stream of 12-15 and break on EVERY single one of them for many hands in a row with some big fat bets out there!

This is going to stick in your mind because of the size of the bets you are making and leave you thinking,"How the hell can this even BE???" This was the 5 minutes of fame that you having been grinding away to achieve for a good long time and THIS happens!!! That's how I feel anyway...it's totally disheartening and demoralizing and it's hard to shrug off. It knocks the hell out of me mentally even when it doesn't actually dent my total bankroll by that much. In years past this happening has left me "shell-shocked" and affected my play thereafter.

What has kept me from falling apart at the seams over it has been to read about what our mentors and blackjack greats have to say about fluctuations. We know that this is an aberration and not the norm percentagewise or statistically and that we have to have "big shoulders" and avoid letting a few losing hands or even a losing session get us down because if you play as perfectly as possible, within the parameters of your bankroll and look for only the best of playing conditions that you can find, ultimately you will come out ahead in the long run.

 

[Kasi]

I haven't been able to pin it down, but something in you says, "Here we go again!"

Well like I think somewhere else you said one doesn't really win very many more hands at higher counts. Mostly what happens is you lose less often because pushes go up. I think it may also be true the dealer actually busts less often at higher counts.

Anyway I liked SystemTrader's advice. I too get the feeling you don't have an entire defined system for spreading various games. I mean if you had faith in how you're gonna bet a certain game, comfortable with the ROR, know the effect of any camo betting etc, why would you deviate?

On the other hand, I guess you're doing well so so cool!

Just call that bet a "camo" bet instead of a "gut" bet and suddenly you're an AP again

 

[sagefr0g]

You have to realize that the best counts we normally see on a night of counting only give us an advantage of 2-3%. You can't notice changes that subtle. If I were to show you two lightbulbs, one 3% brighter than the other, you couldn't tell me which one was the brighter one with your eyes. Human perception can't pick up differences like that, which is what you are trying to do when you try to correlate your results with the count.

yeah, i was thinking of something similar in a differant vane. driving at dusk is supposed to be one of the most dangerous times. probably one reason is the strange perception phenomenon that has to do with when the light provided by the sinking sun is so low that when you turn your headlights on the ambient light is about equal to the strength of your headlights. one feels that one needs one's headlights to see better but because the strength of their headlights is the same as the ambient light the headlights don't really do the driver any good. weird thing is one feels as if one can see better when it gets much darker and the headlights really do help. lol.
but i believe i know what Aslan is talking about. we all have a knowledge that optimal betting according to the count is the right thing to do and we all have had the experience where in we do the right thing and the hoped for fruits of expectation is not realized. sometimes one experiences a 'pre-cognition' that things aren't going to work out. i for one wouldn't say that such an intuition isn't valid. i would just say that for one such an intuition has it's own uncertainty just as the optimal betting by count does. intelligent play calls for choosing between the better of such uncertainties and in my judgement the uncertainty of the optimal bet by the count holds forth the least uncertainty lol. anyway i still turn my headlights on at dusk and when i play blackjack i still have my intuition running in the background. at least with your headlights on at dusk the other drivers can see you comming better i'm not sure what good the intuition playing blackjack has lol....

 

[Bojack1]

yeah, i was thinking of something similar in a differant vane. driving at dusk is supposed to be one of the most dangerous times. probably one reason is the strange perception phenomenon that has to do with when the light provided by the sinking sun is so low that when you turn your headlights on the ambient light is about equal to the strength of your headlights. one feels that one needs one's headlights to see better but because the strength of their headlights is the same as the ambient light the headlights don't really do the driver any good. weird thing is one feels as if one can see better when it gets much darker and the headlights really do help. lol.
but i believe i know what Aslan is talking about. we all have a knowledge that optimal betting according to the count is the right thing to do and we all have had the experience where in we do the right thing and the hoped for fruits of expectation is not realized. sometimes one experiences a 'pre-cognition' that things aren't going to work out. i for one wouldn't say that such an intuition isn't valid. i would just say that for one such an intuition has it's own uncertainty just as the optimal betting by count does. intelligent play calls for choosing between the better of such uncertainties and in my judgement the uncertainty of the optimal bet by the count holds forth the least uncertainty lol. anyway i still turn my headlights on at dusk and when i play blackjack i still have my intuition running in the background. at least with your headlights on at dusk the other drivers can see you comming better i'm not sure what good the intuition playing blackjack has lol....

You see your example is part of what I talk about. The general public may think that turning your headlights on at dusk is for the sake of themselves seeing better, but as you stated that is really incorrect. What is correct is the latter part of the statement where you mention that it is easier for others to see the headlights. That is in fact why you are supposed to turn on your headlights at dusk. Also when raining. Headlights do not increase one owns visibility in the rain, but it increases visibility for those around you to see you. So the point is, much of the mainstream may be misinformed why they do things, but its right to do it just the same. One's doubts in blackjack can come from a similar thought process. If you are to put out big bets during high counts, but have been burned in the past, you may second guess it due to lack of understanding of the truth. Just like you know headlights don't help your visibility at dusk but put them on anyway, you put out the big bet knowing you can easily get burned again. But the truth is the headlights don't get put on for the reason of your own vision, and you will win those big bets a lot of times regardless of past events. The problem is most just don't get it.

But as I have stated before the subconcious will play tricks on you. It works as much as a consience as anything will. If you try to fool yourself into thinking you know what you are doing when you really aren't that prepared, most times your subconcious will appear in the form of a gut feeling to let you know you can't lie to it and give you feelings of uncertainty and doubt. If you play as perfect as you can, you will be surprised how few "gut feelings" you will have. I am not saying you will feel certain you will win, I'm saying you will feel certain of your choices. Again the problem is most just don't get it.