Wary of high some counts

[RJT]

You guys are so rational it's scary! lol

That's how you have to be - there is no room to play hunches, no matter how much you want to.

RJT.

 

[k_c]

Oh, wait, so if I understand, you're saying that having a game where all of the 7s, 8s, and 9s, were played would give a signal to a KO player to bet more?

It would. However, I also think that 7s have an effect of removal that is positive for player expectation. So maybe a player should bet more if such an unusual shoe were to play out?

I am just showing that in one possible shoe comp and probably more that betting and playing like a good counter would is negative EV. I am also saying in that particular instance that a KO counter does in fact have a positive EV, but it is not attainable unless he is a super player capable of perfect playing strategy (such as standing on 12 v 10) because he knows the precise deck comp, I couldn't do it, could you?

Also, I tried to point out that this is just one shoe comp in the larger picture. It probably has a relatively low probability of occurring, so if you bet and play like a good counter would you could still have positive EV over a large number of shoe compositions with the same count/pen.

The question was if is whether is it wise to be wary of some high counts and bet less because of your "gut." I guess the answer is no unless you have studied your particular counting system and have a knowledge of its weaknesses (or unless you have a proven championship caliber gut:grin:.)

k_c

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I am just showing that in one possible shoe comp and probably more that betting and playing like a good counter would is negative EV. I am also saying in that particular instance that a KO counter does in fact have a positive EV, but it is not attainable unless he is a super player capable of perfect playing strategy (such as standing on 12 v 10) because he knows the precise deck comp, I couldn't do it, could you?

Also, I tried to point out that this is just one shoe comp in the larger picture. It probably has a relatively low probability of occurring, so if you bet and play like a good counter would you could still have positive EV over a large number of shoe compositions with the same count/pen.

The question was if is whether is it wise to be wary of some high counts and bet less because of your "gut." I guess the answer is no unless you have studied your particular counting system and have a knowledge of its weaknesses (or unless you have a proven championship caliber gut:grin:.)

k_c

If you want to fool around with hunches, there are enough close plays where you can guess with no significant difference either way. You can also work your guessing into your act if you so desire. (Ref: ZG's coin-flip play.)

 

[aslan]

I am just showing that in one possible shoe comp and probably more that betting and playing like a good counter would is negative EV. I am also saying in that particular instance that a KO counter does in fact have a positive EV, but it is not attainable unless he is a super player capable of perfect playing strategy (such as standing on 12 v 10) because he knows the precise deck comp, I couldn't do it, could you?

Also, I tried to point out that this is just one shoe comp in the larger picture. It probably has a relatively low probability of occurring, so if you bet and play like a good counter would you could still have positive EV over a large number of shoe compositions with the same count/pen.

The question was if is whether is it wise to be wary of some high counts and bet less because of your "gut." I guess the answer is no unless you have studied your particular counting system and have a knowledge of its weaknesses (or unless you have a proven championship caliber gut:grin:.)

k_c

Chanpionship caliber gut; i.e., photographic memory and instant recall. lol Points well taken.

 

[black king]

reply/aslan

i've lost on several occassions betting up into a high and rising count and its frustrating. I've also been frustrated flat betting my minimum into a falling count and winning hand after hand. the problem with high counts is we dont know when they will turn. If the count keeps rising obviously that means small cards keep coming out. this cant scare you. You need to adopt a betting strategy to go along with whatever counting system you are using. You must be comfortable with the amounts and stick to your strategy. Sure it can be a little scary at times but short term losses in big bet situations are all part of the package. You're in this for the long run. If you're playing correctly take the good with the bad because you have to believe absolutely that the math is on your side.