NFL Week 15
- Thread starter aslan
- Start date
toastblows
Well-Known Member
I will be in vegas in time to bet on the 4:00pm games.
Unfortunately Im not liking the crud to choose from:
Dallas 10.5 over PHI...questionable...didnt the pats only take them for 3pts. Over 48.5 is a maybe
Indy 10.5 over Oak...seems doable...not thrilling.
NYG 4.5 over WAS. I can actually see NYG losing this game. They are not impressive, but they get fluky weeks.
MIN 10 over CHI....
Unfortunately Im not liking the crud to choose from:
Dallas 10.5 over PHI...questionable...didnt the pats only take them for 3pts. Over 48.5 is a maybe
Indy 10.5 over Oak...seems doable...not thrilling.
NYG 4.5 over WAS. I can actually see NYG losing this game. They are not impressive, but they get fluky weeks.
MIN 10 over CHI....
aslan
Well-Known Member
I will be in vegas in time to bet on the 4:00pm games.
Unfortunately Im not liking the crud to choose from:
Dallas 10.5 over PHI...questionable...didnt the pats only take them for 3pts. Over 48.5 is a maybe
Indy 10.5 over Oak...seems doable...not thrilling.
NYG 4.5 over WAS. I can actually see NYG losing this game. They are not impressive, but they get fluky weeks.
MIN 10 over CHI....
Garbage in, garbage out. Nothing seems worth betting. Good time to lay low except for a minor wager here and there to peak your interest in the games. As the youngsters say, "I'll be chillin'." :dog: Az
toastblows
Well-Known Member
I'll probably throw a couple chips on Minnesota for the hell of it. Make it worth watching at least.
TheProdigy
Member
My pick of the year is Miami over Patriots on the moneyline... boo ya ka sha!
Hi.
Being in NY I would have loved to bet on the Jets yesterday. I knew they were going to cover the spread. I wish A.C. had a legal sports book. Does anyone know if there is any legal way to bet on sports with out physically going to the other side of the country?
By the way, I am working on a four game system, the best odds possible in the casinos (A.C. & Conn.): B.J. of course (counting/shuffle tracking), Video poker (need to research 1st for this side of the continent), Limit Holdem Poker (playing only the top ten hands, unless in the blinds), and craps (giving the casino only .006 % advantage).
I am going to train in the upcoming new year. I intend to use a small bankroll and do some scouting/recon as I train.
Has anyone tried anything like this? What do you think?
Being in NY I would have loved to bet on the Jets yesterday. I knew they were going to cover the spread. I wish A.C. had a legal sports book. Does anyone know if there is any legal way to bet on sports with out physically going to the other side of the country?
By the way, I am working on a four game system, the best odds possible in the casinos (A.C. & Conn.): B.J. of course (counting/shuffle tracking), Video poker (need to research 1st for this side of the continent), Limit Holdem Poker (playing only the top ten hands, unless in the blinds), and craps (giving the casino only .006 % advantage).
I am going to train in the upcoming new year. I intend to use a small bankroll and do some scouting/recon as I train.
Has anyone tried anything like this? What do you think?
aslan
Well-Known Member
I question how anyone can reduce the casino edge in craps to near nothing unless you're talking about comps and other promotions (DC aside).
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
100x odds would be about it...which is found in only a few places, and if you're willing to pony up $500 behind a $5 line bet. Wonder what kind of bankroll you need to pull that off?!?
moo321
Well-Known Member
Cut the craps! And only play video poker if you can get a 1% edge. Only playing "the top 10 hands" at an average low limit holdem game is leaving a lot of profit on the table. You need to play suited connectors and low pairs in position, too. I'd stick to counting in blackjack, too.
Thanks for the replies.
First, the way to get those odds in craps is this, put one unit on the pass line and one on the don't pass. Then you back up the point with "free odds". If it wasn't for the 12, the player would have an ever so slight advantage betting "wrong" and be exactly even with the house betting "right" using the free odds. The free odds are not free only because they bar the 12, that is why they bar the 12 [I've heard of some places barring the 2 (but I've never seen it) and the odds on the 2 & 12 are the same anyway). Oh, and comps, forget about them, they know when you are basically canceling them out. I have had some success with this method, but I don't have a big bankroll and I don't risk what I can't yet afford and it takes a LONG time to get ahead as this play is basically even with the house.
Second, as for poker, I am again playing with a very small bankroll, basically 2-4 games so I do agree with playing suited connectors in late possition, but I would wait untill that human erge to get in to the action hits me too hard before I bet/call such hands. I would play these hands as a reward to myself fo being patient, as this method also requies much patience.
Third, I'm not sure yet as I intend to practice, practice, practice how much I will start out with as far as session bankroll (considering total $800.00, two for each method, trying to make $100.00 before moving to the next) as a start. I have B.J. table and a craps table set up in my playroom. I will practice for a few months and if all goes well, then I will go to "war". I like the human element in practice not that I'm against simms, but I wont be playing computers on the battlefield.
First, the way to get those odds in craps is this, put one unit on the pass line and one on the don't pass. Then you back up the point with "free odds". If it wasn't for the 12, the player would have an ever so slight advantage betting "wrong" and be exactly even with the house betting "right" using the free odds. The free odds are not free only because they bar the 12, that is why they bar the 12 [I've heard of some places barring the 2 (but I've never seen it) and the odds on the 2 & 12 are the same anyway). Oh, and comps, forget about them, they know when you are basically canceling them out. I have had some success with this method, but I don't have a big bankroll and I don't risk what I can't yet afford and it takes a LONG time to get ahead as this play is basically even with the house.
Second, as for poker, I am again playing with a very small bankroll, basically 2-4 games so I do agree with playing suited connectors in late possition, but I would wait untill that human erge to get in to the action hits me too hard before I bet/call such hands. I would play these hands as a reward to myself fo being patient, as this method also requies much patience.
Third, I'm not sure yet as I intend to practice, practice, practice how much I will start out with as far as session bankroll (considering total $800.00, two for each method, trying to make $100.00 before moving to the next) as a start. I have B.J. table and a craps table set up in my playroom. I will practice for a few months and if all goes well, then I will go to "war". I like the human element in practice not that I'm against simms, but I wont be playing computers on the battlefield.
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
You are exactly right about the comps and the "Doey-Don't" system...odds generally don't get rated, and any smart pit boss won't comp when you are playing both sides of the line.
I think you've figured out the only weakness with that system...a comeout 12. That's a 1/36 (2.78%) chance of happening obviously, which is basically the house edge during the comeout.
good luck
Yes ChefJJ that is the "Doey-Don't" system. But the 2.78% house edge you mentioned is decieving. As you said that's the house edge only on the comeout roll. I read the book on the "Doey-Don't" system years ago and forgot the author's name. I do remember that he said it turned out to be .006% overall with this method.
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
It's Week 16 in the NFL now anyways :joker:
toastblows
Well-Known Member
I bet 1 chip Vikes first half -7. Horrible.
I bet 1 chip Vikes 2nd half -8...Thank you.
I bet 2 chips over PHI/DAL.....barf
The schmo next to me bet $100 on miami over bal straight up....$255 profit.
I bet 1 chip Vikes 2nd half -8...Thank you.
I bet 2 chips over PHI/DAL.....barf
The schmo next to me bet $100 on miami over bal straight up....$255 profit.
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
Exciting finish for that profit too. :joker: What's that say about the Ravens?!?
toastblows
Well-Known Member
absolute abortion this year. although it doesnt say much for the pats then either, since they had to pay off the refs to throw 50 flags at the end of that game to ensure their win
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
absolute abortion this year. although it doesnt say much for the pats then either, since they had to pay off the refs to throw 50 flags at the end of that game to ensure their win
...and it doesn't help your own cause to throw one of those flags into the stands either!
The Pats are playing their role as the Evil Empire quite well :whip: