losing control

[callipygian]

There's a few things that should disturb you upon writing it out.

i sat down at a $10 min table and did bet spreads of $10 - $150.

You should realize this is already a pretty large spread; it's going to attract attention, especially in Vegas. Having appropriate camoflage (being a female is one plus) can help deflect some of the attention, but it's unreasonable to expect this to be heat-free.

i was up 300, down 300

This is only two big bets! If this is noteworthy, you're probably overbetting. Keep in mind that even at TC's of +10, you will win only 44-45% of your hands and lose 47-48% of them. You're just more likely to double and split, and more likely to win your doubles and splits.

i got tired and should've left ... i was tired and steaming so i couldn't even count properly.

Most certainly you should have left. Playing while tired is like driving while tired, and driving while tired is like driving drunk.

a bad streak hit me. the count was high and i lost most of my big bets, and before i knew it i was down $700.

You should have left then. The casino will still be there after you get a few hours of sleep and cool down - there's no hurry.

i kept playing to "try to get even." ... I also started increasing my bets.

These are two big warning signs of gambling addiction. Please at least consider the possibility.

any one have similar experiences?

Absolutely. How about this: playing 5 hands at a TC of +5 to +7 and not getting dealt a single ten or ace? And actually busting two of those hands - without a single ten showing up?

I can't remember the exact cards, but it looked something like this:
1) 6, 5 vs. dealer A (dealer BJ) - down 8 units
2) 3, 4 vs. dealer 10; hit 5, hit 5; dealer 20 - down 16 units
3) 8, 9 vs. dealer 10; dealer 18 - down 24 units
4) 3, 9 vs. dealer 8; hit 4, hit 6 (dealer 18) - down 32 units
5) 8, 8 vs. dealer 10; split; hit 7, surrender; hit 6, hit 9 (dealer 12, hit 10) - down 44 units

Then the shoe was shuffled with a running count of +12 with 2 decks remaining. :flame:

The most irritating part is that everyone around me was winning. Three soft hands had been hit to 21, and two or three player blackjacks showed up. I was just the low card sop for the table.

Fortunately for me, I had actually won two doubled max bets earlier - I ended the session only down about 20 units or so.

 

[bj bob]

last night, i sat down at a $10 min table and did bet spreads of $10 - $150. The game I'm playing is supposed to be a real good double deck game..I was actually spreading 25-150 because the place I played at did not have $10 min, tables

The above statements you have posted have left me thoroughly confused, so please elucidate further. Case in point, are you referring to the same game in both cases, or was one a shoe game and the other DD? Was the one $10 min. while the other $25. We need to know the specifics in order to advise you as to your bet spread. It's very critical here.. We also need to know the exact size of your bankroll so we can determine if you're overbetting etc.

 

[sagefr0g]

Keep in mind that even at TC's of +10, you will win only 44-45% of your hands and lose 47-48% of them. You're just more likely to double and split, and more likely to win your doubles and splits.

that's gotta be the quote of the day!

 

[EasyRhino]

once again, i'm guessing i am to do this for bankroll management reasons. what if i had the bankroll to afford larger spreads when the count is really high and and i am able to deal with the variance (and not to mention get away with it in terms of cover)?

Again, risk management is the primary requirement of a successful advantage player. Some people will operate with "no max bet", where they will just bet proportionally to their advantage. So, for instance, at TC +4, the bet might really be almost double. But these people have already carefully calibrated their bet spreads to their bankroll. And if you're playing a good DD game in vegas, a 12x spread is going to get attention, and not in a good way.

More importantly, it sounds like your bets exceeded your own personal risk-tolerance level. This can be lower than what the math would indicate. The most effective way to determine this risk-tolerance level is to have a losing streak.

 

[standard toaster]

Most certainly you should have left. Playing while tired is like driving while tired, and driving while tired is like driving drunk.

driving drunk is like getting arrested, getting arrested is like going to prison, going to prison is like taking it from big bubba and taking it from big bubba is like... well dieng

so it was like you were dead right?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
More importantly, it sounds like your bets exceeded your own personal risk-tolerance level. This can be lower than what the math would indicate. The most effective way to determine this risk-tolerance level is to have a losing streak.

Yes, yes, oh this is so important! It's not just numbers on paper when it's your own real money, and you have to reckon how much you would have to lose to feel miserable, then calculate what the chances of losing that much are.

All this money-making stuff is supposed to help us realize our goals and to improve our quality of life, and if the expected and inevitable swings in the game are making you feel awful, it's not doing those things. We all have other ways of earning money that don't involve leaving a couple of months' pay at a blackjack table occasionally.

 

[EasyRhino]

(Incidentally, the whole "establish your personal risk tolerance" is incredibly useful for the boring subject of retirement investing).

I had to do a big personal risk-tolerance gut check yesterday when dealing with an (increasingly rare) online casino bonus. It was one of those "sticky" bonuses where it's necessary to play extremely aggressively early on. I set a "win target" of exactly $750. I was going to do whatever it took to get to that point, but not take a scintilla of extra risk to go beyond it.

Table max was $200, so I go up-down-up-down-up, and find chipcount at... $745.

I had no idea what to do.

I could have just thrown down another $200 max bet. After all, with this sort of bonus, increasingly aggressive pay results in higher EV. Also, I was going to have to grind out a VERY LARGE wagering requirement, so even with small bets there was still a lot of variance to come, and an extra buffer would come in handy. Then again, I was getting pretty tired of busting out on previous sessions.

I could have Martingaled with a $5 bet, and had a very high chance of reaching the win target. But having a Martingale implode on me would have made me throw my computer out the window.

Instead, I though carefully about it, and decided that it really was close enough for government work, and ground out the rest of the WR with $5 bets.

 

[evilrobotmonkey]

The above statements you have posted have left me thoroughly confused, so please elucidate further. Case in point, are you referring to the same game in both cases, or was one a shoe game and the other DD? Was the one $10 min. while the other $25. We need to know the specifics in order to advise you as to your bet spread. It's very critical here.. We also need to know the exact size of your bankroll so we can determine if you're overbetting etc.

I play at a few different places. One offers a good double deck game where $10 is the min, while the other has a $25 min. When I'm playing the $10 min game, I'll usually bet $10 on neutral or negative counts, sometimes $15 and $25 so it won't look like I'm flat betting a lot. I want it to look like my betting is erratic. I don't spread my bets precisely, but generally my bets increase with the count. When the count is +1, and +2, I'll usually bet $25 to $50. When the count is +3, I may bet $50, $65, or $75, and when the count is +4, I'll bet $50 to $100, and maybe throw on a few stray red chips on top of the green. Usually, the most I will bet on one hand is $150, and that's reserved for counts of 7+ which is rare. If the count is ridiculously high I may bet two hands of $100.

I don't have a set bankroll for BJ. I suppose I have about 5k that I can use for BJ right now. My bankroll is replenishable. I have other forms of income.

Anyway, after reading these posts and browsing this forum a little more, I've realized how I'd been careless about cover and should be more careful from now on. I actually played 3 short sessions of BJ today at 3 different locations, and I was more mindful about cover.

The first place I played at was a small casino with $10min tables and i managed to do spreads of 1-10. I was sitting at a table full of conservative old men betting $10 every hand. I was betting $10-$20 on negative to +1 counts, $25-$60 on counts of +2 to +4, and jumped up to $100ish dollars (I like to throw in stray reds with 3 greens, so I'm betting like $85 or $110) on counts of 6 and higher. Sometimes right after a shuffle I'll bet $25 on 2 hands as a cover. I tried to make it look like I was having fun and gambling, and "letting my winnings ride" or "steaming from previous loss" whenever I increased my bet. Anyhow, I noticed the pit boss was watching, so I didn't stay long.

 

[evilrobotmonkey]

...to the point where it's just effing ridiculous. Luckily, this chart does not represent actual casino play. It does represent almost 22,000 hands played against software.

wow, that is scary.

 

[bj bob]

A few words of wisdom

Dear E.R. Monkey (Now that's a scary name combo!)
The responses you have gotten so far have been extremely insightful and should be taken seriously, i.e. risk tolerance and bankroll management. Now let me get a bit more specific for your case. As mentioned above a 15:1 spread won't last forever in a DD game, so you have to get it back to a functional "reality" range. If you're playing a $10 min. a reasonable and profitable spread would be $10-40 x 2. This will accomplish two things : 1) lower the heat level allowing you to concentrate on your game and, 2) restore your max bet to a reasonable "proximity" of where it should be versus your bankroll. Even with this betting structure, your BR should be ~$8-$10 K.
One particular detail in your play really stands out in my view as throwing away money is your bet level at neutral/ negative counts is betting any more than the table min. (i.e. ONE hand at $10). This is a very critical point of the deck for several reasons, viz. you're still playing without a mathematical advantage and a bet other than min. has absolutely no justification, so until that TC reaches +1, your min. bet should be automatic. Secondly, the novice counter almost invariably ignores or grossly underestimates the effects of Wonging out in neg. counts. There is absolutely no reason for a newbee counter to be actively playing a hand in a DD game with the RC in double digits(neg.) anywhere in the deck. If you can eliminate even 10 of these hands in an hour, your EV will increase dramatically. A simple smoke break, potty trip or phantom cell call once an hour will easily knock off ten of those nasty neg. hands. As you become more experienced you can get more clever with more frequent and subtle Wong-outs such as performing a fake Heimlich Maneuver on Automonk feining a choking episode on imaginary banana peels.
With that said, you may in fact occasionally "play around" with intermediate bet levels since they are being made in +EV environments and, by all means, make sure that max.bet is on the felt at TC+4. Good luck!

 

[chichow]

Its difficult to wong out in DD.

I don't know where he is playing.

Someone enlighten me on where there is a good DD game at 10/25 min on the Strip.

And if it is off the strip, like downtown, I thought those places already sweat green actions and 1-4 spreads. e.g. escortez and 1234Q?

 

[evilrobotmonkey]

thanks for the advice bj bob. i know that betting anything more than min when the count is neutral or negative is -EV, but i feel like its useful for cover and helps me get away with bigger bets in high counts later, so it might be worthwhile. if im betting $20 (once in awhile) instead of $10 in a negative count, i lose some EV on that extra $10 i'm betting ,but later on i can possibly more easily get away with jumping up to $80 on a +3 count. flat betting min during negative/neutral counts, and suddenly increasing bets seem to draw attention. i feel like it's obvious when i always bet the min at the start of a new deck, while i might've been betting $70 at the end of the last deck. i haven't recieved much heat yet, but as my experience in counting continues we will see what happens. i am definately gonna be more careful now though.

i do wong out in DD from time to time. when the count gets to -5 or worse, i get up to use the bathroom or pretend i received a text. it really is hard to wong out when i'm playing HU though.

 

[shadroch]

Its difficult to wong out in DD.

I don't know where he is playing.

Someone enlighten me on where there is a good DD game at 10/25 min on the Strip.

And if it is off the strip, like downtown, I thought those places already sweat green actions and 1-4 spreads. e.g. escortez and 1234Q?

Read all of his 15 posts. The answers are there.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

thanks for the advice bj bob. i know that betting anything more than min when the count is neutral or negative is -EV, but i feel like its useful for cover and helps me get away with bigger bets in high counts later,...

You're a girl! You don't need cover! Just unbutton another button.

Seriously, there are situations where -EV bets are called for. Single-deck games come to mind (as BJ Bob can attest to!) But if you're grinding out shoe games, you're just crunching numbers and although when you're on winning "streaks" you feel like a millionaire, you don't have much EV to spare in the modern game.

PM me with where you are playing, and I'll tell you how much cover you need.

 

[zengrifter]

Its difficult to wong out in DD.

There is NOTHING EASIER than to wong out at 2D. Just pretend you have a cell-call. zg

---------------------
From Barfarkel TR Excerpt #58

I decided to take a short break while we walked over to the Fremont. I watched The Grifter, as he demonstrated one of his tactics. He bought in at a non-smoking $5 double-deck table with one other player. Every time the count went negative, Grif stepped back into the aisle and lit a cigarette. He was totally ruthless in avoiding negative-EV hands. We continued to back-count the table until the count righted itself, and then he’d douse the smoke and rejoin. The count would drop again, and he’d step away from the table and light another cigarette, and let the other player eat the negative cards for him. His new technique seemed easy on the EV, but kind of hard on the lungs.

He let me in on another one. He would wong out of a negative count and rejoin at the new shuffle, explaining to the dealer that he was at the house phone "trying again to call the room," but "the line is still busy," and "boy, can my wife monopolize a telephone." The only difference with this ploy is that he wouldn’t be close enough to back-count and rejoin the table on the same shuffle, but instead would have to time his re-arrival for the beginning of the next shuffle.

Although most of these Boyd property double-deckers are pretty dire for straight counting, The Grifter believes that by avoiding the negative situations, and then spreading without cover to optimal-sized two-spot bets in the plus counts, that he has decent EV and a good SCORE equivalent. As long as there are others at the table he sometimes doesn’t even bother with the house phone or smoking ploys, but just steps away shamelessly with no explanation. He calls it "stationary exit wonging."

​

 

[White Guy]

I'd be very curious which casino allowed you to spread 1-15 during a ten hour session.

I have been playing a spread of 25-400 lately but not during a 10 hour session. I have had pit crits watching but they haven't said anything yet. The trick is I play two hands when the bet is $50 or more and wong in at a point where the count is high enough for a black action bet at the start to get it out of the way. When going from two hands of $25 to one it just looks like I am trying to "change the flow" of the cards. Also I always keep greens on top so even at max bet the bet looks like $125 from a distance. I have even gone down to $25 when playing a spread of 50-400 on DD when my stack looked a little low and the count was low too. Hopefully I didn't just jinx myself though.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Learn or Lose

last night, i sat down at a $10 min table and did bet spreads of $10 - $150. i was up 300, down 300, and even for the entire night. i got tired and should've left, but then a bad streak hit me. the count was high and i lost most of my big bets, and before i knew it i was down $700. i kept playing to "try to get even." i was tired and steaming so i couldn't even count properly. I also started increasing my bets. when the count seemed reasonably high, i'd put 300 out there. bam, lost all the big bets too. i ended up losing $1900 after a 10 hour overnight session.

well, there goes all my winnings for the week. i have learned my lesson about staying disciplined in this game. but who knows, had i not started steaming and increasing my bets, and kept a proper count and betting system, i still may have lost a lot because i was really unlucky. variance is a btch.

any one have similar experiences?

If you are overbetting you have a choice, you can learn from your lesson or continue to overbet and not win or go broke.