Best Odds for Matchplay

[Kasi]

The EV for an don't pass line bet in craps is:
EV(crapsDP) = 949/1980*(2*1)-976/1980*(1) = 922/1980 = +0.466

I'm just curious but, on the above, what would that assume about ties in craps? That he would get to keep the MP coupon in the event of a tie or that they would take it?

I guess I was thinking they maybe usually don't take it in the event of a push but I don't really know.

Anyway, if they don't take the MP coupon with a push, could one ignore ties in the EV calc of a MP coupon and get maybe a little higher EV number for the coupon value?

 

[Doofus]

When I get a matchplay I use it to bet the passline a bet an even money bet. Than I take the odds for fun and to gamble when nobody has an advantage. I take the odds for entertainment purposes and to look more like a gambler. After my matchplays are up I will roll a couple more token roles and than get back to blackjack.

If you take the full free odds, that's the smart play that an AP would make, as there's no house edge on the free odds bet. On the other hand, gamblers make big pass line bets (and worse, prop bets) and don't take the free odds (or make less than a full free odds bet).

 

[ChefJJ]

If you take the full free odds, that's the smart play that an AP would make, as there's no house edge on the free odds bet. On the other hand, gamblers make big pass line bets (and worse, prop bets) and don't take the free odds (or make less than a full free odds bet).

Very true. The more Odds you take, the closer you bring the house edge on the line/Odds combination back towards zero. Although it doesn't necessarily make it easier to win, it does help with that.



I'm just curious but, on the above, what would that assume about ties in craps? That he would get to keep the MP coupon in the event of a tie or that they would take it?

I was curious about this myself. Even though there's less than a 3% chance of the 12 being rolled, losing the MP blows the scheme if it isn't accounted for. I've had my MP taken on pushes in BJ one too many times, but I've never used one playing the DP in craps.

good luck

 

[sagefr0g]

ok what am i missing here

probably i must be missing something here about these match play chips or coupons thing. to where it's being considered that ok you might could play them on blackjack, craps, roulette, bacarrat or what ever.
so but the thing is in my mind the average joe gets these match play opportunities every so often but not so often. so in the average joe's case what's the diff? point being doesn't it take a significantly large number of match play opportunities for these variance options or what ever edges to become meaningful? to where for the average joe the thing would be to drop the match play at a high ev time at a game he has some skill at. wherein the really only game of the above mention where skill plays a part is blackjack?
so but maybe for the guy that collects these match plays like the dickens and has loads of them to play then yeah maybe he'd want to be more selective about what game to go after with them.

 

[N&B]

Funny, that craps gambit works if the come-out is no point. 2-3-7-11-12. Throw a point, and a pair of players can't risk more than $80 backing the bets.

 

[Kasi]

probably i must be missing something here about these match play chips or coupons thing. to where it's being considered that ok you might could play them on blackjack, craps, roulette, bacarrat or what ever.
so but the thing is in my mind the average joe gets these match play opportunities every so often but not so often. so in the average joe's case what's the diff? point being doesn't it take a significantly large number of match play opportunities for these variance options or what ever edges to become meaningful? to where for the average joe the thing would be to drop the match play at a high ev time at a game he has some skill at. wherein the really only game of the above mention where skill plays a part is blackjack?
so but maybe for the guy that collects these match plays like the dickens and has loads of them to play then yeah maybe he'd want to be more selective about what game to go after with them.

Well, I guess you're right, the more coupons you have the better off you are.
Since it's a match-play coupon, I think the player must match the coupon face with real money. So the EV's that have been discussed are the +EV you have on your money that you are betting. So, like Callipygian said, for that one even-money bet at doublezero roulette, you have a +EV of .4211. If you choose to play the player at baccarat, maybe your EV is +.479 on the same money. Might as well go with the highest EV for your money. Get 100 $10 MP coupons, and you'd expect to make $479 at baccarat, $421 at roulette.

Blackjack is more complicated I think and depends alot on exactly what you are allowed to do or not like can you double the coupon value or just your cash portion of the bet. What does BJ pay on the match portion? Etc. Or how it would be effected from a CC point-of-view and using a BJ MP coupon in a high-count with some innate adv of 1 or 2 % or whatever. Sounds logical though. I don't even know if one is allowed to exceed the the MP coupon value with one's cash portion. Not sure one would even want to if one could.

Years ago, I think at the Stratosphere, they had $5 match coupons in little books I think they were giving away out on the street. Maybe they were giving them out to only people with a player's card. Either way, one way or another, I bet I played about 100 of them lol.

Then there are the promotional coupons where one is not even required to match the bet but just bet the coupon for one decision, win, lose or tie and they take the coupon, I think.

 

[Guynoire]

On the other hand, gamblers make big pass line bets (and worse, prop bets) and don't take the free odds (or make less than a full free odds bet).

I think you can use that to your advantage for a matchplay bet. Here's a strategy to consider. Bet the don't pass line with your matchplay coupon. If a point is established convince someone at the table who bet the pass line and didn't take odds to allow you to take odds on his pass line bet. Use this bet as a hedge bet to guarantee money.

This strategy allows you to make one of the best even-money bets in the casino, the don't pass line, and reduces variance by effectively selling your edge back to the casino without house vig.