50% penetration - how to beat it

[kingjaxe]

Hi
I play at European casino, where there is no heat, but after an hour of play, when they know that I'm counting cards I get 50% penetration
or even less.

The rules are:
no hole card, S17, DA2, DAS, early surrender( but not against the Ace). I'm the only player at the table and I can play on even 7 boxes with
no heat. Table limits 10-400.
Casino edge with these rules is 0,3%.

So now i wonder how much should i bet on each TC and on how many boxes. Let's say i have unlimited bankroll. I was betting now: at TC0 and less - minimum 10 on one box, at TC1 - 100 on one box, at TC2 - 250 at 2 boxes = 500, and TC3 - 400 at 2 boxes = 800. You won't see higher True Counts at this penetration, so i would like to bet my max at TC3. What should be optimal stakes and on how many boxes?

One more question. I can play on 7 boxes, so when there is almost 3 decks dealt out and i know i will play one or max 2 hands before the shuffle and TC is 3, how should i play it ???
I think instead of playing on 2 boxes ( 400 on each), it's better to play on 7 boxes because you know it's your last hand before the shuffle and you want to play as many hands as possible on high TC. But how much to bet per box there ??

cheers
kingjaxe

 

[Southpaw]

Hi
I play at European casino, where there is no heat, but after an hour of play, when they know that I'm counting cards I get 50% penetration
or even less.

The rules are:
no hole card, S17, DA2, DAS, early surrender( but not against the Ace). I'm the only player at the table and I can play on even 7 boxes with
no heat. Table limits 10-400.
Casino edge with these rules is 0,3%.

So now i wonder how much should i bet on each TC and on how many boxes. Let's say i have unlimited bankroll. I was betting now: at TC0 and less - minimum 10 on one box, at TC1 - 100 on one box, at TC2 - 250 at 2 boxes = 500, and TC3 - 400 at 2 boxes = 800. You won't see higher True Counts at this penetration, so i would like to bet my max at TC3. What should be optimal stakes and on how many boxes?

One more question. I can play on 7 boxes, so when there is almost 3 decks dealt out and i know i will play one or max 2 hands before the shuffle and TC is 3, how should i play it ???
I think instead of playing on 2 boxes ( 400 on each), it's better to play on 7 boxes because you know it's your last hand before the shuffle and you want to play as many hands as possible on high TC. But how much to bet per box there ??

cheers
kingjaxe

If they are half-shoeing you, you need to leave. There is no point sticking around, exposing yourself to the pit and surveillance just to try to win crank out a few pennies per hour against a half-shoe game. Assuming this is not a SD game, the SCORE is going to be absolutely horrible on this game. I hate to say it, but the casino really is in full control; they do hold the possibility of making their games immune to counter's and this is one of the ways they can do it.

SP

 

[prankster]

Hi again-
We communicated in the chat room last night-I'm glad you followed my suggestion to put your question on the board. Last night you said you get 50% pen. Whats the pen like prior to them thinking you're a counter? As I strongly suggested last night you should get up and leave a 50% pen table. Good cards!:joker:
If the pen is acceptable when you arrive at the casino,maybe as I suggested last night, you need a better act. The idea being to not let the casino know you're counting. So-what's the pen like BEFORE they think you're a counter?

 

[jack.jackson]

Given the info you provided and theres NO heat you'll have a WR around $78 and a SCORE of about 22 with basic hi-lo. Ho hole card=OBO

Alternative spread(no camo)

0=$10
1=100x100
2=200x200x200
3=400x400x400x400x400(you said unlimited BR)

WR=$110 SCORE 20.00 given 100 hands per hour.

Please list what system you use, whether you can resplit aces and if "original bets only" are taken when dealers has BJ for a more thorough analysis and ideal bet spead and SCORE.

Note: With 50% pen 100 hands per hour may not be accurate.

 

[kingjaxe]

Hi guys
They cut off about 1,5 or 2 decks at the start, depends on the dealer. When there are more players at the table the pen is little better than when I'm alone but still 1,5 decks cut off is best you can get.
I use HiLo, You can split aces only one time and you get one card only. No resplit aces.
When the dealer has BJ , You lose all your money.

 

[Southpaw]

Given the info you provided and theres NO heat you'll have a WR around $78 and a SCORE of about 22 with basic hi-lo. Ho hole card=OBO

Alternative spread(no camo)

0=$10
1=100x100
2=200x200x200
3=400x400x400x400x400(you said unlimited BR)

WR=$110 SCORE 20.00 given 100 hands per hour.

Please list what system you use, whether you can resplit aces and if "original bets only" are taken when dealers has BJ for a more thorough analysis and ideal bet spead and SCORE.

Note: With 50% pen 100 hands per hour may not be accurate.

How many decks are we looking at? Nobody has mentioned this so far. I assume six, yes?

Even if this strategy works and our friend has the bankroll to support this kind of play, it is infeasible and there are better things one could be doing with the money.

It is infeasible because he will be tossed like a piece of trash if he is spreading from 1x1 to 5x40. He said he is already being half-shoed. This is the casino's polite way of saying, "foxtrot, oscar." If you push them more by spreading to that many hands with that large of a spread, you will force them to be more direct with their ways. Also, I don't know what kind of $10 limit table you are playing at where you could expect to ALWAYS have the ability to spread from 1 hand to 5 hands at your will. Even if you had the luxury of always playing heads up, these sorts of antics will not be tolerated by the casino, especially if they have recently half-shoed you.

Moreover, a SCORE of 20 is really subpar. If our friend actually had the bankroll to be able to put out 5 hands of $400 at marginal counts such as +3, there are much better opportunities for him.

SP

 

[kingjaxe]

yes that's 6 decks, Southpaw

First of all, it's not 10-400 dollars but local currency. I have been several times at this casino so far, so they know me and I'm burned there anyway, so I don't care if they f&* me off. I sometimes travel to other casinos too but that's not America sir, when they will see you have much money in front of you or start winning a little, you get half-shoed just for a security.

But let's come back to the topic.
I'm ready to bet 5 hands of 200 at TC+3. Is it still worth a try or should I find other job?
And can some1 explain me why at TC+2 i bet 600 total and at TC+3 2000 total. At +2 i have 0,7% edge , at +3 about 1,2 % edge. If i bet 600 total at +2 , using kelly criterion i should bet about 1030 total at +3 TC. Am i right??

 

[Southpaw]

I'm ready to bet 5 hands of 200 at TC+3. Is it still worth a try or should I find other job?

You shouldn't be playing a 6-deck game with 50% penetration ... just saying. Nobody should want to risk losing a fortune, for the chance of winning very little. You'd probably be better off getting a job at McDonald's.

SP

 

[Jack_Black]

You are wasting your time. There are "other ways" of beating this game without counting. Look into it.

 

[Southpaw]

You are wasting your time. There are "other ways" of beating this game without counting. Look into it.

Exactly, if you want to play this game, you're going to have to find a flasher or do some other dirty-work.

SP

 

[Gramazeka]

Statman

1. http://gamemasteronline.com/Archive/Blackjack/BeatingToughGames-P4.shtml (Archive copy)

2.I recommend to you to read Statman-

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/playing/statman.htm (Archive copy)