8 decks better?
- Thread starter barbie
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Several of the Statues in Cesear's Palace...
are actually 8-Deck wongers! They stood stationary so long that with the low humidity, they actually turned to stone. Security then moved them into the alcoves all over the casino, just to get them out of the way.
Certainly, you are correct that when +++ situations arise in 8D, especially early on, then they will more hands/rounds.
However, I estimate that TC above +5 would occur about 3% of the time in 8D. And obviously, would tend to occur more frequently towards the shuffle card.
One would certainly suffer from boredom, and would stand out like a sore thumb...standing there for sometimes hours just to get down a few bets.
Surveliance: "Yes, we think you have an 8D Wonger on bj-28. He stood there watching the game for 5 hours, then bet 4-hands, and now has been watching 3 more straight hours".
Pit: "Yeah, we are already onto him. He will make a good match to the statue on the east entrance, so the GM said to leave him alone".
phantom007.
are actually 8-Deck wongers! They stood stationary so long that with the low humidity, they actually turned to stone. Security then moved them into the alcoves all over the casino, just to get them out of the way.
Certainly, you are correct that when +++ situations arise in 8D, especially early on, then they will more hands/rounds.
However, I estimate that TC above +5 would occur about 3% of the time in 8D. And obviously, would tend to occur more frequently towards the shuffle card.
One would certainly suffer from boredom, and would stand out like a sore thumb...standing there for sometimes hours just to get down a few bets.
Surveliance: "Yes, we think you have an 8D Wonger on bj-28. He stood there watching the game for 5 hours, then bet 4-hands, and now has been watching 3 more straight hours".
Pit: "Yeah, we are already onto him. He will make a good match to the statue on the east entrance, so the GM said to leave him alone".
phantom007.
statues
Cute with the statues. But if you sit down at an 8d game where TC is around 2 after a deck or two (not so rare), you might get 20 or more hands dealt at decent or even great counts at one table, instead of wasting time walking around looking at 6d games. Isn't an 8d game with .75 pen and a RC in teens after a deck or 2 equiv to a 6d shoe that BEGINS with a good pos count right off the top and still has FOUR WHOLE DECKS left to deal? Who wouldn't jump at a game like that??! There may be a flaw in the analysis, but I'd like somebody with some expertise to address it seriously, if possible.
Cute with the statues. But if you sit down at an 8d game where TC is around 2 after a deck or two (not so rare), you might get 20 or more hands dealt at decent or even great counts at one table, instead of wasting time walking around looking at 6d games. Isn't an 8d game with .75 pen and a RC in teens after a deck or 2 equiv to a 6d shoe that BEGINS with a good pos count right off the top and still has FOUR WHOLE DECKS left to deal? Who wouldn't jump at a game like that??! There may be a flaw in the analysis, but I'd like somebody with some expertise to address it seriously, if possible.
Answer: little if any difference
Good counts will last longer but they will also be fewer between. Nobody wants 8 decks but sometimes it is the only game available, and I'd rather play an 8D game with good pen than a 6D one with bad pen. It is beatable with both Wonging and play-all tactics. It's also a great application for shuffle tracking.
If you are a Wonger shop for pen, easy in-and-out of a table, and lack of heat first because they will all buy you more advantage than 6D vs. 8D.
Good counts will last longer but they will also be fewer between. Nobody wants 8 decks but sometimes it is the only game available, and I'd rather play an 8D game with good pen than a 6D one with bad pen. It is beatable with both Wonging and play-all tactics. It's also a great application for shuffle tracking.
If you are a Wonger shop for pen, easy in-and-out of a table, and lack of heat first because they will all buy you more advantage than 6D vs. 8D.
Sims
I've never played an 8 deck shoe and don't profess expertise, but I'll offer this up. If you use the sims contained in BJRM for 6DS17DAS75% and 8DS17DAS75% you can compare the attractiveness of the two games. SCORE for Play all on 6D 18.81 and on 8D is 10.85. SCORE for Wonging is 39.03 and 25.89 for 6D and 8D respectively. I think that sums up the debate.
The Sims in BJRM also show frequency of particular TC's. Percent of time spent at TC>= +1 is 27% for 6D and 25% for 8D. Percent of time spent at TC>= +4 is 5.1% and 3.5% respectively. Granted, you spend more total time in the 8D shoe, so the # of times you reach those count levels will tend to equalize, but now you have spent more time trying to get to the same place. You can make your own estimates. In any event, the SCORE's tell you that the game is not as good.
I've never played an 8 deck shoe and don't profess expertise, but I'll offer this up. If you use the sims contained in BJRM for 6DS17DAS75% and 8DS17DAS75% you can compare the attractiveness of the two games. SCORE for Play all on 6D 18.81 and on 8D is 10.85. SCORE for Wonging is 39.03 and 25.89 for 6D and 8D respectively. I think that sums up the debate.
The Sims in BJRM also show frequency of particular TC's. Percent of time spent at TC>= +1 is 27% for 6D and 25% for 8D. Percent of time spent at TC>= +4 is 5.1% and 3.5% respectively. Granted, you spend more total time in the 8D shoe, so the # of times you reach those count levels will tend to equalize, but now you have spent more time trying to get to the same place. You can make your own estimates. In any event, the SCORE's tell you that the game is not as good.
True, but...
... you are going to have fewer opportunities to Wong in if you are backcounting 8D shoes than 6D or 4D. If I was backcounting both a 8D and a 6D shoe I would rather Wong into the 8D one after 2 decks than the 6D one with 2 decks. But there is no difference between Wonging into a 6D shoe after 2 decks or a 8D one after 4 decks, assuming the pen is the same in both games. And when you Wong in to any game it is very unlikely the good count will remain for more than a couple of decks anyway so don't count on being able to play it all the way down to the cut.
The whole purpose of Wonging is to transcend the disadvantage you get in multi-deck games and it does that job very well so if you are planning a Wonging trip 6D vs. 8D should not be a the top of your list of considerations.
... you are going to have fewer opportunities to Wong in if you are backcounting 8D shoes than 6D or 4D. If I was backcounting both a 8D and a 6D shoe I would rather Wong into the 8D one after 2 decks than the 6D one with 2 decks. But there is no difference between Wonging into a 6D shoe after 2 decks or a 8D one after 4 decks, assuming the pen is the same in both games. And when you Wong in to any game it is very unlikely the good count will remain for more than a couple of decks anyway so don't count on being able to play it all the way down to the cut.
The whole purpose of Wonging is to transcend the disadvantage you get in multi-deck games and it does that job very well so if you are planning a Wonging trip 6D vs. 8D should not be a the top of your list of considerations.
Seriously...
> There may be a flaw in the analysis, but I'd like somebody with some
> expertise to address it seriously, if possible.
There is very little to be said for the 8-deck game. A 1-12 spread in a decent 8-decker will return about 0.77 units per hour whereas the same spread in a 6-deck game with the same rules and similar penetration would return 1.36 units. If you back count the 8-deck game with the same spread then you can raise your hourly EV to 1.36 units, but using the same technique on a 6-decker would win you 1.98 units. Even an extraordinary 8-decker (S17 DAS LS) with seven decks dealt would only grant you 1.84 units per hour. This is all straight out of Schlesinger's book.
The bottom line is that 8-deck games will have slightly longer positive counts but they will be less frequent. You would be doing much more watching than necessary. Although many of the posts above are jokes, they are still accurate and they come from players with plenty of expertise. You'll have to excuse the light-hearted wit of these guys. Sometimes it's hard to take questions about 8-deck games seriously. Although there can be good opportunities, as Auto Monkey mentioned, they really don't stack up to 6-deckers unless there are unusual circumstances or advanced techniques involved.
-Sonny-
> There may be a flaw in the analysis, but I'd like somebody with some
> expertise to address it seriously, if possible.
There is very little to be said for the 8-deck game. A 1-12 spread in a decent 8-decker will return about 0.77 units per hour whereas the same spread in a 6-deck game with the same rules and similar penetration would return 1.36 units. If you back count the 8-deck game with the same spread then you can raise your hourly EV to 1.36 units, but using the same technique on a 6-decker would win you 1.98 units. Even an extraordinary 8-decker (S17 DAS LS) with seven decks dealt would only grant you 1.84 units per hour. This is all straight out of Schlesinger's book.
The bottom line is that 8-deck games will have slightly longer positive counts but they will be less frequent. You would be doing much more watching than necessary. Although many of the posts above are jokes, they are still accurate and they come from players with plenty of expertise. You'll have to excuse the light-hearted wit of these guys. Sometimes it's hard to take questions about 8-deck games seriously. Although there can be good opportunities, as Auto Monkey mentioned, they really don't stack up to 6-deckers unless there are unusual circumstances or advanced techniques involved.
-Sonny-
Re-Apply, but this time.....
try either Fig or Grape-leaf covering.
Also, appears that Cesears actually caused the ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act)....statues without arm(s), and especially noses are very popular.
So before your next 8D Wonging session, try cutting off your nose and at least one arm. You should get the job!
During my last trip to Greaser's, I mean Cesears, which FORTUNATELY was over 2 years ago, BR would only allow me to play the 8D game with $10 min. Heat was minimal, since I was largely spreading between $10. and $10. Tried to tip the Dealer several times, and got a lecture about "Barber Pole" betting being discouraged.
If allergic to Fig and Grape Leaves, suggest Rogaine....they do make some exceptions to those with 4lbs. of Pubic Hair.
phantom007.
try either Fig or Grape-leaf covering.
Also, appears that Cesears actually caused the ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act)....statues without arm(s), and especially noses are very popular.
So before your next 8D Wonging session, try cutting off your nose and at least one arm. You should get the job!
During my last trip to Greaser's, I mean Cesears, which FORTUNATELY was over 2 years ago, BR would only allow me to play the 8D game with $10 min. Heat was minimal, since I was largely spreading between $10. and $10. Tried to tip the Dealer several times, and got a lecture about "Barber Pole" betting being discouraged.
If allergic to Fig and Grape Leaves, suggest Rogaine....they do make some exceptions to those with 4lbs. of Pubic Hair.
phantom007.
Auto. Monkey, are you as OFFENDED as I am....
"investor" suggests that "someone with more expertise and intelligence" answer the original question.
Then he/she says something like "Wouldn't 8D be better because of more hands at Positive Counts?".
I do not usually FLAME, but "HaHaHaHa, TeHe, TeHe, etc."
One Tunica store that I frequent, when you are the ONLY player at the table in their High Limit Room, will allow you to chose the # of Deck(s) as long as your min. is One Black. Options are 1D, 2D, or 6D.
Have I ever been so STUPID?...I always chose SD!
Next trip, I am going to request a 24-Deck game.......that way, if the TC tanks, I can leave the table, drive up to SouthHaven, MS (the closest WalMart), do some shopping, stop at 1-2 Topless bars, then go to the Laundrymat in the RV Park at Sam's Town and do a load or two, then reappear just about the time the TC justifies a 2-unit bet.
phantom007.
"investor" suggests that "someone with more expertise and intelligence" answer the original question.
Then he/she says something like "Wouldn't 8D be better because of more hands at Positive Counts?".
I do not usually FLAME, but "HaHaHaHa, TeHe, TeHe, etc."
One Tunica store that I frequent, when you are the ONLY player at the table in their High Limit Room, will allow you to chose the # of Deck(s) as long as your min. is One Black. Options are 1D, 2D, or 6D.
Have I ever been so STUPID?...I always chose SD!
Next trip, I am going to request a 24-Deck game.......that way, if the TC tanks, I can leave the table, drive up to SouthHaven, MS (the closest WalMart), do some shopping, stop at 1-2 Topless bars, then go to the Laundrymat in the RV Park at Sam's Town and do a load or two, then reappear just about the time the TC justifies a 2-unit bet.
phantom007.
exactly no pro or good player would chose 8dk
Investor guy is looney.
He will lose,we all know!
How many books show pros playing 8 dk?
How many good players even want to play 8 dk?
Don't even bother playing.
The accuracy is so much lower in 8dk is crazy.
But good luck investor and let us know how much you lose,
but hey you may get free dinner on the house.
Investor guy is looney.
He will lose,we all know!
How many books show pros playing 8 dk?
How many good players even want to play 8 dk?
Don't even bother playing.
The accuracy is so much lower in 8dk is crazy.
But good luck investor and let us know how much you lose,
but hey you may get free dinner on the house.
8 decks
Wow, I really started something here! Look, as I understand this business, you generally want fewer decks because you can get into higher counts faster -- BUT they're fleeting. With more decks, IF you wong into favorable counts, you can get many more hands played at a given table and spend less time wandering pits backcounting and maybe drawing even more heat than you would by spending more time playing more hands at fewer tables. That's what I was wondering anyway. If the sims refute this, ok, but I don't think it's quite as dumb as you "experts" make it sound. Lighten up!
Wow, I really started something here! Look, as I understand this business, you generally want fewer decks because you can get into higher counts faster -- BUT they're fleeting. With more decks, IF you wong into favorable counts, you can get many more hands played at a given table and spend less time wandering pits backcounting and maybe drawing even more heat than you would by spending more time playing more hands at fewer tables. That's what I was wondering anyway. If the sims refute this, ok, but I don't think it's quite as dumb as you "experts" make it sound. Lighten up!
Ony one answer!
> ...between playing 6D, 2D pen with no surrender and 8D, 2D pen with late
> surrender which would you pick?
Well, a 1-12 spread in the 6-deck game (H17 DAS NS 4/6 dealt) will win 0.28 units per 100 hands whereas the 8-deck game (H17 DAS LS 6/8 dealt) will win 0.55 units per 100. If we backcount these games we could raise our EV to 1.05 and 1.29 units respectively, each with about a 23 unit SD per 100 hands.
I think the answer is clear...NEITHER! I doubt that any serious player would play either of these games unless, as you mentioned, there were great shuffle tracking, sequencing, front loading or team play situations involved. After all, the most successful players are the ones who know when NOT to bet.
-Sonny-
> ...between playing 6D, 2D pen with no surrender and 8D, 2D pen with late
> surrender which would you pick?
Well, a 1-12 spread in the 6-deck game (H17 DAS NS 4/6 dealt) will win 0.28 units per 100 hands whereas the 8-deck game (H17 DAS LS 6/8 dealt) will win 0.55 units per 100. If we backcount these games we could raise our EV to 1.05 and 1.29 units respectively, each with about a 23 unit SD per 100 hands.
I think the answer is clear...NEITHER! I doubt that any serious player would play either of these games unless, as you mentioned, there were great shuffle tracking, sequencing, front loading or team play situations involved. After all, the most successful players are the ones who know when NOT to bet.
-Sonny-
But you are missing a very important idea
You do not make money betting when count is high. You make money betting when count is high and then it goes down after you bet. You bet, then Ace, 10 hit table, count goes down, you are winning. You bet big when count is high because you hope count is about to go down.
If count stays high, you are not getting benefit of the high count.
This is why 1 deck is good. The count goes up and down.
You do not make money betting when count is high. You make money betting when count is high and then it goes down after you bet. You bet, then Ace, 10 hit table, count goes down, you are winning. You bet big when count is high because you hope count is about to go down.
If count stays high, you are not getting benefit of the high count.
This is why 1 deck is good. The count goes up and down.
We're not joking because the QUESTION was dumb
> Wow, I really started something here!
Yeah! The best questions always stir up a lot of attention.
> Look, as I understand this business, you generally want fewer decks because
> you can get into higher counts faster -- BUT they're fleeting.
Exactly, but they are also more frequent. You will have more favorable opportunities with fewer decks, assuming the penetration is equivalent. The penetration will be the biggest factor with this.
> With more decks, IF you wong into favorable counts, you can get many more
> hands played at a given table and spend less time wandering pits backcounting
> and maybe drawing even more heat than you would by spending more time playing
> more hands at fewer tables.
This is a good theory, but not quite true. Although you will get to play a few extra hands each time you sit down, you will be sitting down less frequently when there are more decks in play. You will spend more time walking around and watching the tables, which will probably draw more heat. The surveillance people like to call these people "vultures." Overall you will be playing less hands per hour which will reduce your hourly win rate as well as making you look more conspicuous.
> If the sims refute this, ok, but I don't think it's quite as dumb as
> you "experts" make it sound. Lighten up!
These guys are just having a little fun with the new guy. You should see them when they REALLY get into it! There's nothing rowdier than a good nerd-fight! Instigators like "investor" only fuel the fire. It's certainly not a dumb question, but to argue with the more experienced players about something he hasn't done much research on is going to create quite a stir around here. Everyone here has been playing at a proffesional level for many years (and some of them have played full time for several decades) so you can trust our advice.
Hopefully we've managed to answer your question.
-Sonny-
> Wow, I really started something here!
Yeah! The best questions always stir up a lot of attention.
> Look, as I understand this business, you generally want fewer decks because
> you can get into higher counts faster -- BUT they're fleeting.
Exactly, but they are also more frequent. You will have more favorable opportunities with fewer decks, assuming the penetration is equivalent. The penetration will be the biggest factor with this.
> With more decks, IF you wong into favorable counts, you can get many more
> hands played at a given table and spend less time wandering pits backcounting
> and maybe drawing even more heat than you would by spending more time playing
> more hands at fewer tables.
This is a good theory, but not quite true. Although you will get to play a few extra hands each time you sit down, you will be sitting down less frequently when there are more decks in play. You will spend more time walking around and watching the tables, which will probably draw more heat. The surveillance people like to call these people "vultures." Overall you will be playing less hands per hour which will reduce your hourly win rate as well as making you look more conspicuous.
> If the sims refute this, ok, but I don't think it's quite as dumb as
> you "experts" make it sound. Lighten up!
These guys are just having a little fun with the new guy. You should see them when they REALLY get into it! There's nothing rowdier than a good nerd-fight! Instigators like "investor" only fuel the fire. It's certainly not a dumb question, but to argue with the more experienced players about something he hasn't done much research on is going to create quite a stir around here. Everyone here has been playing at a proffesional level for many years (and some of them have played full time for several decades) so you can trust our advice.
Hopefully we've managed to answer your question.
-Sonny-