+- 8 percent advantage!!!!

[Deleted member 3273]

I played a 6 deck shoe DAS H17 75 percent cut, and I got a 8% advantage. I wondered for a second if I could have count backwards, I bet that will never happen again. the count was plus 23 with 1.5 deck left of play. Using true edge giving me a >7.5% edge. I insured, dealer an A up and no blackjack?! I got 13 and 15.

the index number I use is 6. (comrad's paper..truing the redseven count)
So everthing over 2.5% means stay. what i did. Lost the 15 won the 13.

I wonder if I made the right play?

Anybody?

 

[Brock Windsor]

What am I missing? you said you had a 13 and a 15. One of them lost and one of them won but you stayed on both..... I've probably played enough hands to see that happen to me, but it was dealer error of course.

 

[Deleted member 3273]

correction

Stayed on 15, hit on 13.

 

[21gunsalute]

That's called variance! Get used to it. Even if you had an 80% edge that's no guarantee that you're going to win a hand, that you're going to get a good hand or that the dealer is absolutely going to have a Blackjack when he has an Ace showing. This is especially true in multideck games. If there was 1 1/2 decks left to play that means there were about 78 cards you hadn't seen yet. That means there are still a lot of opportunities for small cards to worm their way into your hands.

 

[BJgenius007]

I played a 6 deck shoe DAS H17 75 percent cut, and I got a 8% advantage. I wondered for a second if I could have count backwards, I bet that will never happen again. the count was plus 23 with 1.5 deck left of play. Using true edge giving me a >7.5% edge. I insured, dealer an A up and no blackjack?! I got 13 and 15.

the index number I use is 6. (comrad's paper..truing the redseven count)
So everthing over 2.5% means stay. what i did. Lost the 15 won the 13.

I wonder if I made the right play?

Anybody?

You should surrender the 15 and hit the 13.

 

[Deleted member 3273]

You are correct!

I actually know that but getting 8% percent in a shoe game itselves is so unlikely. I never had it before!

the 15 versus the A. I could not surrender so it was a stay.

Thanks for the replies though!

 

[HockeXpert]

I actually know that but getting 8% percent in a shoe game itselves is so unlikely.

Try playing double exposure with standard bj rules:grin: for a few hours and watching the dealer make almost every hand. 8% is still very slim in the short run (your sampling size was 2 hands) and luck is the largest single determining factor of your fate.

If the index said to do it and you did it, you did the right thing.

HockeXpert