aslan said:
Just what IS the sign to bail when the count is +12 and you're losing every hand??? Anyone???
for that specific instance i dunno. maybe never for that one?
but in the spirit of your question one can still muse upon it:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=193839&postcount=97
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=195773&postcount=29
just the other day i had a chance on a 'tremendous' advantage, previous to that instance the day had been mediocre at best far as my results EV wise. in other words the day up to that point had been fairly normal for my experience of the plays i'm used to, sorta thing. i'd made about a hundred bucks. but this last play likely to present for the day (the one with the 'tremendous' advantage called for a fifty dollar bet to be optimal.
so what did i do? made a ten dollar bet and made about fifty ending my day up a bit over normal with one hundred and fifty, whereas if i'd of made the optimal bet i'd of been up nearly four hundred, lol. oh well.
like ok, me, yeah i understand the principle, the principle is just play it dammitt, it's plus EV so why on earth wouldn't one play it? it's all just one big long game, so keep playing as long as you have the advantage. win stops and lose stops have no relevance with respect to advantage, just slows you down, so just do it man! with advantage in bj and other stuff there is a certain overall frequency for which it presents in the long run and it doesn't tend to be the largest percent of the time, so answer the call, just do it, opportunity doesn't knock twice, sorta thing! hey, you payed gas for this trip, you had expenses, this is what you are here for, go for it!
you look at the world of mankind and can ask, what are the limits if there are any. maybe there aren't, but prosperity is seemingly all the hell out of skew from extreme poverty to poor to middling to well off to the other side of off the scale just hog heaven rolling in the dough. business is that way as well, the scale is just off the hook, beyond most if any mathematicians capability to put a handle on and come up with some magic formula that says this is it folks, the answer to mankind's economic woes.
kelly stuff says just go full steam ahead, you'll make it, you'll go through the roof! and never go broke. but who goes full kelly? who could stand it! a roller coaster ride beyond the amusement parks customers capability to withstand the thrill, maybe? obviously a computer can handle it. just me maybe but i'm to dam weak, scared and insecure to handle it. maybe i could handle it with your money, lol, but i'd still be full of concern about your welfare and what your welfare means to my welfare.
me, well for a good part of forty eight years what i've been used to is work a day for so much pay, sorta thing. that was a thing one could get a handle on, keep one's bearing, sorta thing. sure black swans good and bad swooped down upon me, but the one constant was work a day for so much pay. so hard to teach an old dog new tricks maybe. i just like to see some fairly normal results for the effort i put forth sorta thing, just i can't seem to change that aspect of my nature.
somehow, when it comes to advantage, for whatever reason i dunno, i keep seeing it in relation to what goes on in the natural world, and this concept of negative capability from the poet Keats, that Dr. Evans refered to.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=195202&postcount=25
i think about the critters in the wilderness, the flowers of the field, mountain ranges and the whole darn universe. that stuff just sorta happens, the critters don't sweat it man, they just do their thing and live on another day, lol. they just pretty much eat their fill and go on about their lives. that just seems such a cool way of going about it, lol.
negative capability, a pretty cool concept.