A few questions from a new member

[itakeyourmoney]

First, a little background: I'm a college student looking to make a little money on the side with card counting, nothing real big, just hoping for a little extra spending cash. My plan is to play the basic high/low system on a $5 table at a few of the local Indian casinos (I'm not sure how specific I should get on a public forum, but I think it's safe to say I live in the Midwest). I have a friend who is interested in coming with me, so there may be some possible team tactics in the future with us both betting and counting, but initially it'll be just me doing the betting and he'll be there just to help me wong out when the count goes south.

Now to my questions (I tried to break these up into sections, and I apologize if I become redundant or ask nuanced questions.):

1. Like I said, I'm looking at playing at a $5 table, but I'm unsure about whether I should do a 1-8 spread or a 1-12 spread. Also, I read on here that my initial bankroll should be 60-100 max bets (meaning depending on my spread I'll need to have $2,400-$6,000), maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of money to bring to a $5 table. Also, is there anyway to estimate my profits with those spreads at a $5 table -- is counting a $5 table even worth my time? It costs me about $30 to go the casino (gas, quickie with a hooker, etc.), and I'm hoping to make at least $100 profit per visit -- again, I'm not looking to make a fortune, mostly just doing it for fun and because it sounds exciting to try to avoid getting caught haha.

2. I'm currently working on my basic strategy (6 decks, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek [this means that if the dealer has an ace up he looks to see if he has blackjack, right?]), and my question is: Is there ever a time in which I will deviate from basic strategy depending on the count? That is, say the count is extremely positive, are there times when I might hit instead of standing?

3. My main casino offers 6-deck $5 tables that allow you to wong in at any point and wong out at any point (though I assume most places have the same rule about not wonging back in unless your leaving was unintentional -- such as some sucker needs to go to the atm to get more cash). They also have 2-deck $25 tables where you can wong out, but you cannot wong in midshoe ever. My question is: would it better to stay at the $5 tables, backcounting and then wonging in on a good count then wonging out when it goes south, or would it be in my interest to play the 2-deck tables, even though the cost is higher since it'll be better to play 2-decks rather than 6, and if the count goes south I can always wong out? Whoa, long sentence...

4. As I said above, my friend will be coming with me, and most of the time there'll be a group of us going together -- though only my friend and I will know about my little skill (which at this time still needs A LOT of practice). My plan is to watch my friends play, while also keeping the count, and when it's in my favor I'll pretend that I've waited long enough, and I'll jump in and play a little, then signal the friend who knows about me, to come get me out when the count goes bad (he can come tell me he wants to play vid poker with me or something), is that a prefered strategy over playing the whole game? And if I'm wonging in/out of games a lot, will the heat be onto me? I can't imagine a casino that makes over $1 million a night really caring about some schlub making money at a $5 table.

5. I mentioned earlier about how my friend is gonna help me wong out, and that if I leave I can't come back unless I have a good excuse. So do you guys have any good ideas about possible excuses my friend could use to help me get away that won't draw suspicion -- and any ideas for how I could get away when the count is going down, keep counting, then come back if the count goes up again? I was thinking of using a phone call from my girlfriend or something, but it seems like that would only be good once and it would be strange for me to keep watching the cards on the table. Would it work, if my friend learned how to count, for me to get up and leave (maybe use the restroom ;]) then he signals me when to come back and when I return he gives me some kind of oral signal (like the words used in the movie 21) to let me know the count. As I said in the beginning, I don't care about making a lot of money, it's mostly just the excitement that draws me to this lol, getting to feel like a hot card counter is thrilling even if the profits aren't the same.

6. If I think of more questions I'll ask them later, everyone here seems to be pretty willing to help new people. But my main reason for even making this thread was to ask what all the different acronyms around the site mean -- or perhaps there's even a sticky thread somewhere that addresses all of these? Things like RoR (which I know means risk of ruin, but I have no idea how to figure it out), EV, SD (I believe that depending on the context this can mean either single deck or standard deviation, is that right?), IRC, BS (does this have a meaning other than bullshit on this forum?), AP, and any others you all can think of?

Thank you in advance for the help, I know this is a long post, and I probably asked a bunch of noob questions, but we're all together in taking down the casinos, right?

ITYM (I Take Your (the casinos') Money)

 

[johndoe]

Counting can expect to earn you 1-2 units/hr at best. That's $5-$10/hr, and you still risk losing your whole BR.

If you want extra spending money, you'll make more working in your campus bookstore. Don't waste your time. Focus on your studies and career.

 

[callipygian]

is there anyway to estimate my profits with those spreads at a $5 table -- is counting a $5 table even worth my time?

You're probably looking to earn between 1 and 2 units per hour, which means $5-$10/hr. You'll do better at McDonald's.

You'll need several thousand dollars at a bankroll not to play in one session but to have in reserve for the inevitable losing sessions. Counting cards doesn't mean you're going to win 100% of the time, nor even 90%, nor even 60%. At high counts, you can expect to win 44% of your hands. You make most of your money by being more successful on your doubling and splitting, not by winning the vast majority of hands.

Of course, this means a lot of the time you're going to put big bets out and lose (approximately 47% of the time, with the remainder being ties). You will lose everything you have on the table frequently. The large bankroll is so that you can have 5-10 of these days in a row without going broke.

Is there ever a time in which I will deviate from basic strategy depending on the count? That is, say the count is extremely positive, are there times when I might hit instead of standing?

Yes, these are called indices (or indexes, either plural is grammatically correct). You can do a search on this site for those terms, or you can Google "Illustrious 18" for the 18 most relevant indices.

would it better to stay at the $5 tables

You're probably thinking too far ahead. You'll need a larger bankroll if you're playing at the $25 tables.

if I'm wonging in/out of games a lot, will the heat be onto me?

This is all casino-dependent. Some might, some won't.

Things like RoR (which I know means risk of ruin, but I have no idea how to figure it out), EV, SD (I believe that depending on the context this can mean either single deck or standard deviation, is that right?), IRC, BS (does this have a meaning other than bullshit on this forum?), AP, and any others you all can think of?

You can check the FAQ thread, I'm not sure there's a complete list but most are pretty easy to describe but difficult to explain.

EV = Expected Value, the amount you can expect to make in the long run. If EV > 0, then you expect to win money in the long run. If EV < 0, you expect to lose money in the long run.
Variance = the amount, plus or minus from your EV, which you will likely be in for the short run.
SD = (a) Standard Deviation, the square root of variance. 68% of the time you will end up +/- 1 SD from your EV, 95% of the time you will end up +/- 2 SD from your EV. (b) Single Deck, blackjack with only 1 deck.
N0 (that's N-zero) = The measure of when you've reached the long run, defined by (SD/EV)^2.
ROR = Risk of Ruin, a measure of your variance compared to your bankroll. If your bankroll is small or your variance is high, you will have high ROR.
AP = Advantage Player (or Advantage Play), someone whose EV is positive.
BS = Basic Strategy, use the Basic Strategy Engine on main page to calculate BS for your game.
RC = Running Count, a count of the high (good) cards minus the low (bad) cards which have not been played.
TC = True Count, the RC divided by the number of decks remaining to be played
IRC = Initial Running Count, the RC you start with if you're playing an unbalanced counting system (e.g. KO, Red 7)
H17 = Dealer Hits Soft 17, an optional rule of blackjack
S17 = Dealer Stands Soft 17, the opposite of H17
DAS = player is allowed to Double After Split, an optional rule of blackjack
DA2 = player is allowed to Double Any Two cards, an optional rule of blackjack
LS = Late Surrender, an optional rule of blackjack
ES = Early Surrender, an optional rule of blackjack (rare)
6:5 = blackjacks pay 6:5 rather than 3:2, an optional rule of blackjack
ENHC = European No Hole Card rule, an optional rule of blackjack

 

[FLASH1296]

The limited advice that you have received here is spot-on.
There is no need for saying more.

Blackjack is the hardest way to make "easy money"

In all likelihood you will lose your inadequate bankroll and
wind up wondering why you allowed yourself to be so easily
duped by the media hype that presents BJ as a colorful
romantic road to riches.

It isn't.

 

[moo321]

First, a little background: I'm a college student looking to make a little money on the side with card counting, nothing real big, just hoping for a little extra spending cash. My plan is to play the basic high/low system on a $5 table at a few of the local Indian casinos (I'm not sure how specific I should get on a public forum, but I think it's safe to say I live in the Midwest). I have a friend who is interested in coming with me, so there may be some possible team tactics in the future with us both betting and counting, but initially it'll be just me doing the betting and he'll be there just to help me wong out when the count goes south.

Now to my questions (I tried to break these up into sections, and I apologize if I become redundant or ask nuanced questions.):

1. Like I said, I'm looking at playing at a $5 table, but I'm unsure about whether I should do a 1-8 spread or a 1-12 spread. Also, I read on here that my initial bankroll should be 60-100 max bets (meaning depending on my spread I'll need to have $2,400-$6,000), maybe it's just me, but that seems like a lot of money to bring to a $5 table. Also, is there anyway to estimate my profits with those spreads at a $5 table -- is counting a $5 table even worth my time? It costs me about $30 to go the casino (gas, quickie with a hooker, etc.), and I'm hoping to make at least $100 profit per visit -- again, I'm not looking to make a fortune, mostly just doing it for fun and because it sounds exciting to try to avoid getting caught haha.

2. I'm currently working on my basic strategy (6 decks, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek [this means that if the dealer has an ace up he looks to see if he has blackjack, right?]), and my question is: Is there ever a time in which I will deviate from basic strategy depending on the count? That is, say the count is extremely positive, are there times when I might hit instead of standing?

3. My main casino offers 6-deck $5 tables that allow you to wong in at any point and wong out at any point (though I assume most places have the same rule about not wonging back in unless your leaving was unintentional -- such as some sucker needs to go to the atm to get more cash). They also have 2-deck $25 tables where you can wong out, but you cannot wong in midshoe ever. My question is: would it better to stay at the $5 tables, backcounting and then wonging in on a good count then wonging out when it goes south, or would it be in my interest to play the 2-deck tables, even though the cost is higher since it'll be better to play 2-decks rather than 6, and if the count goes south I can always wong out? Whoa, long sentence...

4. As I said above, my friend will be coming with me, and most of the time there'll be a group of us going together -- though only my friend and I will know about my little skill (which at this time still needs A LOT of practice). My plan is to watch my friends play, while also keeping the count, and when it's in my favor I'll pretend that I've waited long enough, and I'll jump in and play a little, then signal the friend who knows about me, to come get me out when the count goes bad (he can come tell me he wants to play vid poker with me or something), is that a prefered strategy over playing the whole game? And if I'm wonging in/out of games a lot, will the heat be onto me? I can't imagine a casino that makes over $1 million a night really caring about some schlub making money at a $5 table.

5. I mentioned earlier about how my friend is gonna help me wong out, and that if I leave I can't come back unless I have a good excuse. So do you guys have any good ideas about possible excuses my friend could use to help me get away that won't draw suspicion -- and any ideas for how I could get away when the count is going down, keep counting, then come back if the count goes up again? I was thinking of using a phone call from my girlfriend or something, but it seems like that would only be good once and it would be strange for me to keep watching the cards on the table. Would it work, if my friend learned how to count, for me to get up and leave (maybe use the restroom ;]) then he signals me when to come back and when I return he gives me some kind of oral signal (like the words used in the movie 21) to let me know the count. As I said in the beginning, I don't care about making a lot of money, it's mostly just the excitement that draws me to this lol, getting to feel like a hot card counter is thrilling even if the profits aren't the same.

6. If I think of more questions I'll ask them later, everyone here seems to be pretty willing to help new people. But my main reason for even making this thread was to ask what all the different acronyms around the site mean -- or perhaps there's even a sticky thread somewhere that addresses all of these? Things like RoR (which I know means risk of ruin, but I have no idea how to figure it out), EV, SD (I believe that depending on the context this can mean either single deck or standard deviation, is that right?), IRC, BS (does this have a meaning other than bullshit on this forum?), AP, and any others you all can think of?

Thank you in advance for the help, I know this is a long post, and I probably asked a bunch of noob questions, but we're all together in taking down the casinos, right?

ITYM (I Take Your (the casinos') Money)

1. Back-counting spreading 1-8 generally yields about 1.5 units per hour.

2. Yes, you can find a book, or even run a google search on "hi lo index plays". For example, you don't hit 16 against a ten in positive counts.

3. Stay at the $5 table and wong. You would probably need close to $10k to have a safe risk of ruin in a $25 double deck game.

4. This strategy will work for maybe an hour. I would recommend you simply wander around, back-counting tables and hopping in when the count is good. If the casino has several blackjack pits you can probably get away with this for awhile.

5. Don't even worry about running a big player team. They're not nearly as profitable as playing for yourself, and these days they are easy to recognize (everyone saw 21).

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Alright, well like I said I'm not in it to make a fortune -- I enjoy playing and I would enjoy the excitement from being a card counter (kinda like when kids play soldier haha), so even if I wasn't making very much (or only losing a little bit) that would be alright with me.

My friend (from my first post) has become enthralled with the idea of using the Martingale system (Bet $5, lost, bet $10, lose, bet $20...and so on until you win, with every winning giving you a net profit of $5) and hard as I try to convince him that it's a losing system (basically I showed him that if we were to have 9 tries with a max bet of $1,280 that we should mathematically expect to only win about $2,380 before losing all $2,555) he still thinks he can win with it. But as I was doing the math it did get me thinking that if we could play it only when it was in our favor to do so (when our chances of winning went above 50%) that it may have the potential to be somewhat lucrative (at least among the standards of two college students).

So I was just wondering if someone could direct me to somewhere where I could calculate the player's advantage depending on the true count of 6 decks. Again, my thinking is that progressive systems are only losers when the odds are not in your favor, if an AP were to play one when the odds were in his favor then it could prove to be profitable.

Edit: I might need some help from a better mathimatician than myself here: to calculate my expected winnings I took .50408^9 (That is, the odds that I do not win the hand -- either I lose or I push -- 9 times in a row, starting with a min bet of $5 up to a max bet of $1,280. The betting would be done at 2-3 different tables depending on table limits.) and found that I would lose (or push, since I was trying to err on the side of caution and count a push as a loss) nine times in a row 1 in 476 times (476 x $5 gives me my expected winnings of $2,380.) However, my question is: Does the 1 in 476 (I had a 0.210% chance of losing 9 in a row) mean that I would lose one in 476 series (meaning I'd expect to win 475 times, or atleast play 4,284 (476 x 9) hands) or that I would lose 9 times in a row once in every 476 hands (If I were to lose 9 straight once every 476 hands the odds of that would be about 1.891% -- MUCH higher than my other expected value of 0.210%)? Maybe I ought to throw pick up a stats minor or something.

Just a thought I had, so don't hesitate to tear down my ideas haha -- though if you do, at least do it with numbers.

 

[shadroch]

The only reason to count a $5 table is to be sure you can count properly. You don't want to be spreading 1-12 on a $25 table and discover you are not able to do it properly.
In 2001, my BJ mentor told me to play $3 to $5 tables, spreading 1-5 until I doubled my original BR. It took a long time, but by the time I played for bigger money, I was quite confident. I'd ridden out tremendous losing streaks and had a few killer win streaks as well.
Take your time, and do it right.The casinos will be there tomorrow, or next year.

 

[Renzey]

My friend has become enthralled with the idea of using the Martingale system, and hard as I try to convince him it's a losing system, he still thinks he can win with it. But as I was doing the math, it did get me thinking that if we could play it only when it was in our favor to do so (when our chances of winning went above 50%) that it may have the potential to be somewhat lucrative.
My thinking is that progressive systems are only losers when the odds are not in your favor, if an AP were to play one when the odds were in his favor then it could prove to be profitable.
My question is: Does the 1 in 476 mean that I would lose one in 476 series or that I would lose 9 times in a row once in every 476 hands

It would come once every 476 series if those were the actual W/L probabilites -- but don't overlook the real point! Whether it's once every 476 series, or once every 476 hands, it will still occur repeatedly over time. Yet, realize that if your chance to win is over 50% -- you don't need a progression! And if it's under 50%, your progression will kill you sooner or later!

 

[FLASH1296]

Renzey is 100% correct. Pay attention. Those are wise words.

But, as a footnote, you must understand that your chance of winning a hand of blackjack "off the top" is about 43% and your chances of pushing are about 9%.

In spite of what you may think, your card counting efforts are not about to find for you the rare count wherein you are the favorite to win the upcoming hand.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

The information you guys have given me so far has been great.

I'm planning on buying CV v5, and I was wondering if I should also buy "CVData V4.0 and CVCX V4.0 High-Speed Simulators" or if v5 has a simulator itself? I tried to send a message to QFIT, but apparently he is too good to receive messages from noobs like myself :laugh:

 

[shadroch]

I don't understand that, either. You would think a person with a product to sell would be up to taking questions about it.

 

[FLASH1296]

QFIT posts here regularly.

Use the search function if you doubt that.

 

[Canceler]

I tried to send a message to QFIT, but apparently he is too good to receive messages from noobs like myself :laugh:

I see from your use of the "laugh" smiley you're not totally serious with this. Good thing, because it's absolutely untrue.

While for some reason QFIT has chosen not to receive PMs on this site, he can easily be emailed at [email protected].

I once emailed him on a Sunday morning, using my real name (which meant nothing to him). It probably took him all of 15 minutes to respond.

 

[QFIT]

I communicate with rather a huge number of people and need a record and flexibility that PM doesn't give me. Just use [email protected].

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Canceler, yeah the laugh meant I was only joking.

Another noob question though: Does it cause suspicion to ask to see the cut card? I've been thinking that, though it would help to know what it was, it might be safer simply to count it as -1; that way when you bet you know that whatever your current RC is, the real RC always has a chance to be +2 higher and never lower.

And another noob question: I've heard that playing Over/Under 13 is a sucker's bet (something I could attest to after getting dealt 3 straight 13's when betting on it), but I was curious if it can be in the player's favor to play when the count is extremely positive (say TC = +3 or more). Idk, just an idea.

 

[Sonny]

Another noob question though: Does it cause suspicion to ask to see the cut card?

The burn card? Not always. In some casinos it is an unusual request but you can usually find a superstitious reason that will make you sound like a typical gambler. If you find that it draws too much heat in your casino then just stop asking. In most games it doesn’t make that much of a difference anyway. If you don’t see it, just ignore it. It's like having the dealer cut off one more card from the back.

And another noob question: I've heard that playing Over/Under 13 is a sucker's bet...

Most side bets are beatable one way or another. Here's some information about that one:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Over_Under_Card_Counting_System.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/unbalancedoverunder.htm

-Sonny-

 

[rrwoods]

If you've got an Over/Under game you can consistently play, it's usually a better game than the blackjack itself!

 

[itakeyourmoney]

I just cannot thank all of you enough for all of the stuff I've learned from these forums. Which brings me to another question:

If it takes too long to explain just a link would be fine, and I can read on my own, but I was wondering which cards I should maybe try to side count as well? Aces seem obvious, and I think it was blazin22 who said in his thread about 4 months of backcounting that he tried to count 7s, 5s, and 2s as well -- I have an idea of how I could keep these counted (stack my chips for Aces, use my feet to count 7s or something, and maybe have my friend count 5s and 2s), but I'm unsure as to how this would affect my bet or BS.

As always, any info (that isn't from InPlay :laugh will always be appreciated.

ITYM

 

[ihate17]

The more you add, the more mistakes you could make

I just cannot thank all of you enough for all of the stuff I've learned from these forums. Which brings me to another question:

If it takes too long to explain just a link would be fine, and I can read on my own, but I was wondering which cards I should maybe try to side count as well? Aces seem obvious, and I think it was blazin22 who said in his thread about 4 months of backcounting that he tried to count 7s, 5s, and 2s as well -- I have an idea of how I could keep these counted (stack my chips for Aces, use my feet to count 7s or something, and maybe have my friend count 5s and 2s), but I'm unsure as to how this would affect my bet or BS.

As always, any info (that isn't from InPlay :laugh will always be appreciated.

ITYM

Besides aces, a group of cards that would be important to keep side counts on are the cards we do not account for in many counting systems, 7,8,9.
You get a high count and a good hand, the dealer turns 13 and hits a 7 or 8 and takes your money. Or you have a 12 vs dealer 4 but know that the stack is very rich is 7,8,and 9's, so you hit in a high count. You probably would have liked to know if the stack was rich or poor in those cards.
The problem is the amount of additional money you could make by having this information is not high and the amount of errors you might make because of keeping multiple side counts can certainly kill off your edge.
Things like this are why people were attracted to blackjack computers before devices were made illegal. A simple computer can keep a side count of every single card and base playing decisions on this but unless you are a Rainman type, it is an overload of info for most of us.

ihate17

 

[FLASH1296]

Ignore it.

It is but one card.

If 2 decks are cut off that is but one of 104 cards.

One card, more or less, is thoroughly irrelevant.