A tale of variance.

[KewlJ]

Two days, Fairly recent, back to back.

Day 1: played 7 sessions. 2 basically flat (one small win, one small loss), the other 5 all wins of between $1800 and $2600. Days total $11,475. Sessions were all short, 40 rounds or lower and the wins, weren't big enough that they drew much attention. Couldn't draw it up any better.

Day 2: 3 sessions. lost $4600 on the first, very small win on the second. Lost another $5200 on the third. Quit for the day rather than replenish funds. Day's total just under 5 figure loss. For this purpose, I call it a 5 figure loss. This day was very bad, not only because I experienced negative variance, but those amounts draw attention at my level of play. Once I lose the chips that I enter the game with (chip inventory), I am re-buying with cash, and several $1000 rebuys, draws attention. It is one of the times I am most "exposed". So just a bad day.

Neither day is typical or common for me as far as amounts, as I experience 8-10 total 5 figure days a years at my level of play. That is 5 figure win and losses combined. These two just happened back to back. Just good old variance at play.

Maybe I need one of those super-duper counts I read about that eliminate variance and you just keep winning at expectation. I'll ask bigfoot next time I see him.

 

[21forme]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...

 

[JohnCrover]

When it comes to variance I like to look at how many standard deviations I am above or below the mean. This helps me get the max bets out there when it's time, and it helps me stay cool after a loss since I tell myself "You're above EV. What can you complain about?"
We are conservative when projecting my expected value for two reasons: 1) Overestimating the projected win can be bad financially. Leading to a more lax amount of playing hours or a false sense of comfort.
2) It's psychologically more comforting to fight on when you're above EV rather than below it. This is one of the biggest factors that have helped me keep my chin up during tough times.

 

[xengrifter]

Maybe I need one of those super-duper counts I read about that eliminate variance

Multiparameter approximations with bivaluate adjustments... That's the ticket!

 

[JohnCrover]

Just had a loss of $8,000 in one day of betting 1x 250

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

KewlJ and others,
What are your thoughts on sitting down to play with chip inventory all the time? I tried it but started thinking that they must think of me as a winner if I always arrive to play with chips in my pocket. I play with no players card, and refuse to identify myself at most of my stores.
And of course that means that I don't always cashout at the cage after a win...seems like they would think that suspicious at my smaller stores?

 

[KewlJ]

Just had a loss of $8,000 in one day of betting 1x 250

Last fall (2018), I had my worse losing day as a professional player. 20k over 4 sessions. I use different max bets for different games, so if memory serves, at one game I was playing a max bet of $600, and the others $400. So lets just say a max bet of $500, for this purpose, or roughly twice your max bet and I lost more than twice what you lost in my worse day ever. The point being....it happens.

I play a lot of shoe games (6 and 8 deck). That is actually my preferred game as it is what I started with on the east coast and after relocating to Vegas, for the most part, I found double deck to too sweaty and overly "hawked". So like I said, I play a lot of shoe games. And the thing about shoe games, especially deeply dealt shoe games, which I try to find and play, is that sometimes the count goes significantly positive fairly early and stays there and you might get 30-40 rounds at max bet, even more if playing heads up. This is actually what you want....BUT, sometimes you just happen to lose more than your share of these max bets rounds, especially the double downs and splits, and this is when these monster losing sessions occur. Like I said it happens.

KewlJ and others,
What are your thoughts on sitting down to play with chip inventory all the time? I tried it but started thinking that they must think of me as a winner if I always arrive to play with chips in my pocket. I play with no players card, and refuse to identify myself at most of my stores.
And of course that means that I don't always cashout at the cage after a win...seems like they would think that suspicious at my smaller stores?

I play with a chip inventory about 90% of the time (when playing my regular rotation). A chip inventory is a major tool in achieving longevity in places that you play regularly. It allows you to both enter and exit games without coloring up or buying in. And it eliminates cashing out at the cage where the casino can get the best head shot of you. This reduces interactions with the pit and makes it harder for them to track you. It especially works well when the pit is busier.

I also play unrated, but don't think that just because you are playing unrated, means someone isn't tracking your play, and wins and losses, especially if you are a regular player. If you are a regular player, playing at stakes significant enough to interest that casinos they still track you (or attempt to track you) just the same as if you were playing rated. They usually have some sort of code name for such players. So a chip inventory doesn't eliminate that, but it does make it harder....that's the best you can hope for.

The ideal thing is to use the chip inventory to make it harder to track your wins, but you still want to "book losses", even if playing unrated. So on a winning session, I might walk away without coloring up, but on a losing session I will still color up, just so the pit has to confirm and notes (even if only to himself) that I lost. For example, I remember one of those big losing sessions from a year a go that I just mentioned. I entered the game with chips. Went to my pocket for more chips when I started losing. When I continued losing, I buy in for cash at that point. So in this instance I had bought in a couple times and the pit knew I was down 7 or 8 grand, so when the shoe (and high count ended), that is my exit trigger, so I color up, even if I only had 8 or 9 hundred in black chips, which I could have easily walked with. That way the pit has to ok the color up, and notes the loss, like I said even if only to himself. Next few times I see that pit guy, he will remember that I had a big losing day. That's what I want. I mean, I am not looking for a losing day, but if and when it happens I want to take full advantage of it.

A chip inventory is a good idea for anyone who plays certain casinos regularly. It is fairly easy for a player that has only 1 or 2 regular casinos. It gets more complicated with 30. But if your top priority is longevity, it is worth the effort....in my opinion.

 

[Dog Hand]

Here is one more advantage of coming to the table with chips:

I often play NMSE pitch games, and I can't begin to tell you how many times I've sat at a dead table, pulled out some cash to buy in, and while the dealer was processing the buy-in, two or three ploppies decided to join me, thus ruining my nice heads-up play.

If instead I have chips in hand, the dealer begins dealing the new shoe before the ploppies have time to join. Even if I have only enough chips for one round, the NMSE rule means that I can finish the shoe heads-up, even if I have to buy in with cash later in the shoe.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

 

[KewlJ]

Excellent point Dog Hand.

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

Excellent point Dog Hand.

Thanks for your detailed resposes both KewlJ and Dog Hand.
Dog Hand's reply certainly makes sense for using chips to quickly get going on a nmse game. I've had the swarm join as well while dealer cashed me in etc.
And KewlJ of course you make good points as well. It just seems like I get a lot of attention when I sit down with a chip inventory, and don't buy in with cash. But of course that backs up your point, that is because they are scrambling in order to track me well...and that might be a good thing.
I guess I will have to keep experimenting using chip inventory or not and see how it goes.

 

[gronbog]

Bring random numbers of each chip color so that it looks like they're just left over from the last time/table you played.

 

[KewlJ]

I really think gronbog's point about chips allowing you to get into the game quickly on a NMSE game is important. I don't play a lot of NMSE, so I didn't really think about it.

It is amazing how it seems there can not be a single player in the casino, and the second you sit down at an empty BJ table, magically 2 or 3 appear. So getting a heads up game up and running quickly, blocking them out, can be a big EV booster.

 

[gronbog]

Not my point originally. It was Dog Hand. But I agree.

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

Not my point originally. It was Dog Hand. But I agree.

All good points thanks guys.
Some places I play are fairly small...what do you all think concerning the following.
I always feel like I am being watched if I leave the casino without cashing out my win at the cage. Any advice regarding leaving without a visit to the cage?

 

[BoSox]

I always feel like I am being watched if I leave the casino without cashing out my win at the cage. Any advice regarding leaving without a visit to the cage?

When you are ready to leave frequently look at your watch while picking up your walking pace as if you are late for something. A common occurrence for a degenerate.

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

When you are ready to leave frequently look at your watch while picking up your walking pace as if you are late for something. A common occurrence for a degenerate.

Do you know anyone that still wears a watch anymore? Haha just kidding, thanks.

 

[Backbayal]

Having ploppies join you at a table reduces the number of hands you get during your playing time; it does not change your win/loss probabilities.
"You took my card" or "You took the dealer's bust card" is generally taken as fact, but is only superstitious mumbo-jumbo.

 

[KewlJ]

Having ploppies join you at a table reduces the number of hands you get during your playing time; it does not change your win/loss probabilities.
"You took my card" or "You took the dealer's bust card" is generally taken as fact, but is only superstitious mumbo-jumbo.

Not sure who you are responding to with this comment or if it is just a general comment. But for a card counter there is a big advantage to playing heads up. It has nothing to do with taking anyone card or the dealers bust card.

And the very last thing you want is to play through neutral rounds and then the second the count goes positive, especially significantly or "max bet" positive, to have a couple back counter's swoop in greatly reducing the remaining number of rounds played at that advantage that YOU worked to get to.

So yeah, having ploppies join your table is a EV reducing, negative developement. I guess the exception to that would be if the count is fairly significantly negative. In that case other players joining would be beneficial, although only the second best option, behind not playing at all.

 

[Backbayal]

Sure, and that's why many games are NMSE. The casino is trying to protect the counters! The big problem is that ploppies need to be encouraged; it's their play that keeps the game available. Many new players are afraid to start because they expect scorn from the other players if they make a mistake. My first time playing BJ was in Reno, Spring of 1965, within 30 minutes I heard an irate "you took my card when you should have stood" and colored out. It was several years later that I learned that he was correct that I should have stood but was completely wrong that I took "his" card! I regret the several years that I avoided the game.

 

[Raven]

I really think gronbog's point about chips allowing you to get into the game quickly on a NMSE game is important. I don't play a lot of NMSE, so I didn't really think about it.

It is amazing how it seems there can not be a single player in the casino, and the second you sit down at an empty BJ table, magically 2 or 3 appear. So getting a heads up game up and running quickly, blocking them out, can be a big EV booster.

They always show up at true +1. Never fucking fails.