It eats cards though diluting the count. If you're playing heads up and there is a significant surplus of high cards (especially fairly close together in distribution within the shoe) they will hurt the dealer because they are being dealt only to 2 hands. And as we know that is better for us because we can stand on stiffs while they have to hit, significantly raising their chance of busting. As opposed to multiple players doubling and splitting, eating up those cards before the dealer plays their hand. I don't know of any count that would still be valid 10 or 12 cards down the line from the time you placed your bet, assuming the cards were anywhere near the opening of the shoe when that round started.
A tale of variance.
- Thread starter KewlJ
- Start date
" I don't know of any count that would still be valid 10 or 12 cards down the line from the time you placed your bet, "
Voodoo. The tendency of the true count is to stay the same, so in the long run we will end up the same if we bet, burn 10 cards, then deal our hand, or if we just bet and deal our hand.
Now having extra players will hurt you specifically because you will get fewer rounds in at these high counts before the shoe disappears. Of course fewer players are always better.
Voodoo. The tendency of the true count is to stay the same, so in the long run we will end up the same if we bet, burn 10 cards, then deal our hand, or if we just bet and deal our hand.
Now having extra players will hurt you specifically because you will get fewer rounds in at these high counts before the shoe disappears. Of course fewer players are always better.
I find that to be true in 8D more than 6D. Seems like they both sit on the negative side for centuries, but when 'dem cards start falling correct the 8D doesn't tank anywhere near as fast as the 6D. I find 6D almost unplayable. I don't mind waiting around back counting which is about the same for both, but the 8D delivers way more advantage rounds. I can lose 20 units, start dropping bombs, and wong out 20 or 30 units up in one shoe. I never do that in 6D. I usually just lose and have to wait for next good count.. which could be hours.
Same thing with the old single deck casinos, the casino could be ghost empty and suddenly one or more players are making a bee-line directly to the one table I am at... I would often ask them before they bought the chips if they would prefer playing alone. If they said no, I would tell them, "well if you start to play at this table you will be playing alone, because I will immediately move to that table," and point to an empty one.
I had a table that was pretty full. I was back counting and people were asking how to play certain hands. "Should I double?" Stuff like that. I would give them correct play. They were getting lucky and winning the hands. When the count called me I jumped in.. immediately started getting shitty hands. I could see the high cards trying to drop but there was 4 or 5 players. I thought 'they're gonna waste these cards.' So I asked, "hey do you guys mind if I go head to head with her, mix it up a little? These hands are killing me." Of course they felt like I helped them win so they were happy to oblige. I put that dealer on the ropes and never let up until she begged me to father her children.
One time this old lady who spoke zero English followed me around and sat down at every table I did. To top it off there was plethora of open tables as it was completely dead in the casino. I gave up trying to lose her after four or five table hops. We start playing and mid way thru the show gets rich. I’ve been playing for about 45 mins in total and this is the first really positive shoe. All of the sudden I begin to smell a real foul odor. Well, the old lady had shit her pants (literally). Casino management closed down the entire table and that was the end of the shoe. There had to have been another 12 tables with nobody sitting at them. Just my luck. There was fecal residue on the felt because the lady decided to wipe herself with her bare hands and rubbed the felt afterwards.
You guys got it backwards, the greater the count fluctuation / variance the greater the game. This supposed sustained positive count that you you seek and desire is a mirage. it is only sustained because the big cards ain't coming out! LOL
And when the count is tanking hard is when we should be betting big, but we don't because we don't have that super duper count at our disposal that would tell us when!
And when the count is tanking hard is when we should be betting big, but we don't because we don't have that super duper count at our disposal that would tell us when!
I believe 8 decks reduce variance only slightly versus 6 decks because on the 8 deck game when 2 decks have already been played you are now playing a six-deck game. At least from a true count dividing perspective, only you are now starting from either a neutral running count or a plus or minus position.
The above entries are not from me and a previous reply was truncated. I must admit that I am semi-literate with with computers. My previous messages were: As to 8 vs 6decks I agree with Meistro. Increasing the decks reduces the variance. Not much, but consistently. All wins, whether AP or ploppie, depend on positive variance which which is reduced with 8 decks. As was said before, variance is a fickle friend, but sometimes it's the only friend you have.
☝️ This. And as those decks get played out, the more that sustained count starts to deliver premium hands even if it isn't dropping. I'm not saying I've never lost playing an 8D game, but I predictably have worse results playing 6D. Mostly because N0. I can't play enough positive EV hands in any given shoe to make a difference.
Even if the sims showed otherwise, I personally would be more confident with the 4D offering.
I miss the 4D game at the old MGM Grand, dealt face down like a pitch game, it was marvelous.
Back in those days, faithful to Revere, I only bet by running count. My betting schedule was engraved on a lighter... Nowadays such a schedule would be better suited engraved on a vape!
I miss the 4D game at the old MGM Grand, dealt face down like a pitch game, it was marvelous.
Back in those days, faithful to Revere, I only bet by running count. My betting schedule was engraved on a lighter... Nowadays such a schedule would be better suited engraved on a vape!
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