Adv or Disadv - Playing fresh decks in the morning?

[micbravo]

Hello. I am a basic strategy player with soft counting skills. Is there is any pros/cons playing a 6D or 8D when they open a table in the morning? Or after few shuffles?

I have run into those situations - after a long night - and scrounging for advantage before getting on the long bus ride home.

Tx.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Hello. I am a basic strategy player with soft counting skills. Is there is any pros/cons playing a 6D or 8D when they open a table in the morning? Or after few shuffles?

I have run into those situations - after a long night - and scrounging for advantage before getting on the long bus ride home.

Tx.

The time of day does not make a difference in the cards. If you do not know the order of the cards, quantity of shuffling makes no difference. 6D is better than 8D given same pen and rules.

Im not sure what soft counting skill means, but if you are playing basic strategy, you are always at a disadvantage, so I suppose you can say that playing a just opened table means you are playing heads up making you play more hands/hr giving you more -EV. If you are counting, thats more +EV.

 

[creeping panther]

No advantage

except fewer germs

It is funny that while playing and the cards are then changed out many players just leave, and do not return....a voodooo about new cards.:laugh:

I prefer the wash procedure on new decks and then the shuffle.

CP

 

[Warlord]

Im not sure what soft counting skill means, but if you are playing basic strategy, you are always at a disadvantage,

Chapter 6 BJ Bluebook II "What comes after BS"

Talks about things to do short of actually counting to regain some (~3/10%) of the house advantage. Not sure if they actually use the term "soft counting" but he does talk about some counting on a hand per hand basis.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Chapter 6 BJ Bluebook II "What comes after BS"

Talks about things to do short of actually counting to regain some (~3/10%) of the house advantage. Not sure if they actually use the term "soft counting" but he does talk about some counting on a hand per hand basis.

Haven't read Bluebook II, but it kinda sounds like a large scale sort of composition based BS. Regardless (I seem to use this word a lot (parenthesis too)), .3% will not eliminate the house advantage (as you mentioned, although on some games .3 is enough to get a tiny advantage).

 

[micbravo]

soft counting

Excuse that term. I only meant that I estimate the count, to get an idea of the general vicinity of count. I feel that I wont be able to succeed as a card counter.

So I combine the estimating of count plus varying my bet range - mostly based on trends. But this hasnt worked - b/c of bad tendency to chase it down. I am working on this.

Tx.

 

[Jeff Dubya]

voodoo. The cards are the cards. I can't quote much from BJBB2 but I know Fred Renzey is not hot on this kind of stuff. The cards are the cards are the cards.

Except for a deck that has purple or green backs.

Noooo hahahaha just kidding.

The cards are the cards are the cards. Regardless of time, color or anything else.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Excuse that term. I only meant that I estimate the count, to get an idea of the general vicinity of count. I feel that I wont be able to succeed as a card counter.

So I combine the estimating of count plus varying my bet range - mostly based on trends. But this hasnt worked - b/c of bad tendency to chase it down. I am working on this.

Tx.

If you know how to count, it is better just to keep a running count, even though it may not be completely accurate. While this will cost you EV when you make mistakes, you will still be playing a winning game. I remember reading an analysis (although it may not have been an expert) that making a mistake like when having a running count of +4 forgetting and thinking it was -4 and keeping the running count based on that still gives you a +EV game. Opinions?

 

[UK-21]

The other day I was practising by dealing a 7 hand table at home and keeping the count as the game went on. At the end of one shoe I was horrified to find my count was six out. I think somewhere along the way I had done exactly that and picked up a +3 count as -3.

It then set me wondering at what point counting errors will have an effect. I would think that an error of 1 over a six deck shoe would have no appreciable effect, 2 perhaps an acceptable margin or error, but 3 or more will be enough to result in playing incorrectly. A 1 per deck error - 6 over a shoe - must have a seriously adverse effect.

Can anyone qualify this with some numbers ?

Newb99

 

[SleightOfHand]

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackerrors2.htm

 

[blackchipjim]

fresh decks

There is some articles that deal with fresh decks and shoes. I will have to do some looking but the jist of the articles state that after fresh decks are introduced the first baseman has a slight advantage over the other places and third base has a slightly lower advantage than third. When I find the article I will get back to you I do believe it is in a book. blackchipjim

 

[Sonny]

Wong did a comprehensive study of shuffles back in the 80’s. Maybe you’re thinking of that?

“Wong also ran no-shuffle simulations with various numbers of players at the table from I to 5. This did have a significant effect on the players' win rates. His results showed:"

[B]# Players    Win Rate[/B]
    1 	      +.25
    2	      -.10
    3	      -.27
    4	      -.28
    5 	      -.33

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/random.htm

That's only for a game where the dealer doesn't shuffle the cards. Wouldn't that be a nice game though?

-Sonny-