always loss in BIG counts

[Blue Efficacy]

Sorry but this is not true, you advantage does not come from the fact that the TC must decrease. You have an advantage at a positive TC because at any given moment there is a higher chance a high card will be dealt.

Doesn't a high card being dealt decrease the count?

Please explain how these are not the same thing.

A high count means that there is a higher probability a card will come out that will decrease the count.

A card that will decrease the count is, in fact a high card.

 

[sagefr0g]

Doesn't a high card being dealt decrease the count?

Please explain how these are not the same thing.

A high count means that there is a higher probability a card will come out that will decrease the count.

A card that will decrease the count is, in fact a high card.

maybe high cards coming out would decrease the RC and maybe even the TC, maybe not especially i guess if some low cards came out as well, lol. but heck for some of the advantageous double downs and for some of the lucrative splits you need for some low cards to come out as well as high cards. and what?, if you don't get a snapper, or win an insurance bet, then it's those doubles mainly and splits also that we win that money.

but maybe the true count theorem has some weight in this discussion?
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/counting/tcproof.htm (Archive copy)

maybe it sort of means the RC might 'move' more vigorously while the TC sort of lags a bit. thing is the advantage associated with the TC is what it is, except maybe for that floating advantage factor.:whip:

 

[3aces]

CP, that is a very interesting statement - that you "very seldom" have a losing session and are a "constant winner" due to strong index play, knowledge of card composition and floating advantage, bet pattern, game selection and discipline....

I believe I have read elsewhere that you have access to a very very good game. Seems reasonable that playing an excellent game with a shrewd betting/index strategy and discipline could produce good long term results.

But an outcome of very few losing sessions and constant winning is a pretty amazing thing. Even the best games (that I can find mention of) produce some variance when simmed. Enough to make such sure, steady, sustained results unlikely without being barred.

I do not know enough about card composition and floating advantage to understand how they could tip the scales to very impressive session trends. I do not recall reading that they are huge factors in a winning game.

Not doubting your claim - you have established your credibility and there's way too much clueless, angry finger pointing around. Just intrigued and glad for you and kicking myself for not finding a low variance/high reward game in my travels. Like many others on this site, I have found a way to win some $, but not without weathering some wild swings.

And you mysterioulsly mention "another tactic"? I'm guessing you do not want to share that

Keep winning, man.

 

[johndoe]

Doesn't a high card being dealt decrease the count?

Please explain how these are not the same thing.

A high count means that there is a higher probability a card will come out that will decrease the count.

A card that will decrease the count is, in fact a high card.

It's basically the same thing. The advantage you have comes from the increased potential (or expectation) of high cards coming out. If they don't come out, the advantage isn't "realized" yet, but it still exists.

 

[iCountNTrack]

Doesn't a high card being dealt decrease the count?

Please explain how these are not the same thing.

A high count means that there is a higher probability a card will come out that will decrease the count.

A card that will decrease the count is, in fact a high card.

This is true for the Running count not the True Count, the True Count will be the same on average before the card is drawn and after it is drawn.

Even the count doesnt decrease we still have the advantage.

You have to keep in mind that when we are counting cards we are making the best use of info at hand, meaning if for instance we were counting a shoe game, the TC went up to +3 after one deck, but it kept on increasing after a second deck was dealt and we were losing our double downs or not getting any good hands because more low cards kept on showing up, it doesnt matter because we did what we were supposed to do with the availble info
However if we were able some additional info about that second deck from mapping the previous shuffle for instance, we will also make the best use of that information and bet and play accordingly.

Hope this helps

 

[sagefr0g]

CP, that is a very interesting statement - that you "very seldom" have a losing session and are a "constant winner" due to strong index play, knowledge of card composition and floating advantage, bet pattern, game selection and discipline....

it's interesting that you would ask.
think about why you would ask or why you would even care.
CP is a bj warrior, are you?
now you think i'm full of crap, but the answer to that riddle is the answer to the puzzle, minus the kool aid.

But an outcome of very few losing sessions and constant winning is a pretty amazing thing......

not really this is a fairly simple phenomenon to manipulate.
it has to do with all the kool aid, strong index play, knowledge of card composition and floating advantage, bet pattern, game selection and a few other things i doubt CP will post on a public board. that is for the overall picture, otherwise known as the long term.
but short term, consider trip ror and the components of the formula for which that value is derived. if you fiddle with expectation and standard deviation and then if very few losing sessions is important to you then you can make your session results appear that way at relatively small long term expense.

here is another puzzle, if you come in out of the rain, you wont get so wet, but if you go back outside will you get wet?
the statistical answer is yes, the truth is you don't know.
but it's like a coin flip bet situation. would you like to try and make money on a coin flip bet over time?
how about blackjack where the coin should be weighted in your favor?

imho, it's a queston of psychology but even more important, what is the value of your bank roll to you?
apparently it's relevevant to you, since you found CP's statements very interesting.

 

[daddybo]

The wise won has spoken.... Lmao

 

[sagefr0g]

The wise won has spoken.... Lmao

right, just a bunch of words to mask the fact that i'm shaking in my boots every time i sit down at a bj table. :laugh:

i took the test......
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=143948&postcount=322

 

[kewljason]

The wise won has spoken.... Lmao

Yes he has! But as is often the case, I'm left wondering what he said. Just once, I'd like to read some of his wisdom, that I understand on first reading and doesn't make my tiny brain explode. :laugh:

 

[sagefr0g]

Yes he has! But as is often the case, I'm left wondering what he said. Just once, I'd like to read some of his wisdom, that I understand on first reading and doesn't make my tiny brain explode. :laugh:

lol, well i was gonna give you an even worser big long blabbering, but i ran into my own confusion over the issue. specifically when i was trying to resolve in my mind the question of absolute uncertainty a human player faces in the real world of blackjack play and the artificial uncertainty a computer faces in the rng driven world of blackjack simulations.

just i'd say the uncertainty and realities a human player has to deal with and the uncertainty and realities a computer deals with in the world of simulations represents a vast divide.
a human can take advantages of blackjack in ways that it's just not practical for a computer to do in any given simulation.

sorry if my ramblings are confusing, you should be me, lol.:whip:

 

[creeping panther]

Bj42

CP, that is a very interesting statement - that you "very seldom" have a losing session and are a "constant winner" due to strong index play, knowledge of card composition and floating advantage, bet pattern, game selection and discipline....

I believe I have read elsewhere that you have access to a very very good game. Seems reasonable that playing an excellent game with a shrewd betting/index strategy and discipline could produce good long term results.

But an outcome of very few losing sessions and constant winning is a pretty amazing thing. Even the best games (that I can find mention of) produce some variance when simmed. Enough to make such sure, steady, sustained results unlikely without being barred.

I do not know enough about card composition and floating advantage to understand how they could tip the scales to very impressive session trends. I do not recall reading that they are huge factors in a winning game.

Not doubting your claim - you have established your credibility and there's way too much clueless, angry finger pointing around. Just intrigued and glad for you and kicking myself for not finding a low variance/high reward game in my travels. Like many others on this site, I have found a way to win some $, but not without weathering some wild swings.

And you mysterioulsly mention "another tactic"? I'm guessing you do not want to share that

Keep winning, man.

There is UFC Hall Of Famer, a Legendary MMA Heavyweight by the name of Dan "The Beast" Severn. If you were to see him in the restaurant, have breakfast with him, talk with him and introduce him to your wife, chat with him on numerous occasions, you would see him as a very nice, gentle, very friendly man. Then, if on that same day, you would see him in the ring ready to do battle you would say, "Is He The Same Man", that gentle man, he has transformed before my very eyes into, A BEAST! He is not the same man!
The secret is you must play as a Beast, a Warrior, a Stealty Predator. You must... transform.

As to "another tactic", you are correct, cannot share.

Thank you and I do also wish the very best for you.

CP

 

[creeping panther]

Wise Won

it's interesting that you would ask.
think about why you would ask or why you would even care.
CP is a bj warrior, are you?
now you think i'm full of crap, but the answer to that riddle is the answer to the puzzle, minus the kool aid.

not really this is a fairly simple phenomenon to manipulate.
it has to do with all the kool aid, strong index play, knowledge of card composition and floating advantage, bet pattern, game selection and a few other things i doubt CP will post on a public board. that is for the overall picture, otherwise known as the long term.
but short term, consider trip ror and the components of the formula for which that value is derived. if you fiddle with expectation and standard deviation and then if very few losing sessions is important to you then you can make your session results appear that way at relatively small long term expense.

here is another puzzle, if you come in out of the rain, you wont get so wet, but if you go back outside will you get wet?
the statistical answer is yes, the truth is you don't know.
but it's like a coin flip bet situation. would you like to try and make money on a coin flip bet over time?
how about blackjack where the coin should be weighted in your favor?

imho, it's a queston of psychology but even more important, what is the value of your bank roll to you?
apparently it's relevevant to you, since you found CP's statements very interesting.

Sage, You got it goin on BJ BRO', love ya man:grin:

Friend,
CP

 

[psyduck]

As long as one has to draw cards from a pool, one has no choice but facing variance. Having a large enough bank and avoiding wild spread is the way to insure winning sessions. Some wins may not be large, but a win is a win. Sure it helps if you play a game with favorable rules and have dealer friends who are willing to deal deep for you.

 

[Kasi]

but it's like a coin flip bet situation. would you like to try and make money on a coin flip bet over time?...

OMG. That's what I live for and dream about.

That's who I am. That's what I do.

It'd be like I died and woke up in Voo-Doo heaven.

Sorry, edited to note I just noticed this was in card-counting and not Voodoo lmao.

So, fine, I just woke up in coin-flipping counting heaven lol.

 

[Tman]

What I don't understand is how do you know what the cards will be behind the cut card? Without knowing those cards how would the count help you any? Ex: If your at a true count of +10 two decks left, how do you know it is actually a + 10 count when you don't know the cards left in the shoe. It is a 50/50 on whether those high cards would be behind the cut card or in front. You could be at a plus twenty and still have all the face cards behind the cut card, which would be no advantage at all.

Just wondering if what I am saying makes any sense, Help would be Appreciated!!!!!

 

[ycming]

when a TC of 10, it means per deck there is 10 more high card than low card, meaning the probability of you getting a high card is 30/52 and low card is 10/52.

When the count is high it just means the advantage swings your way and not ensuring you 100% you will get 100%

Ming

 

[Canceler]

Sometimes known as MUBS...

What I don't understand is how do you know what the cards will be behind the cut card? Without knowing those cards how would the count help you any? Ex: If your at a true count of +10 two decks left, how do you know it is actually a + 10 count when you don't know the cards left in the shoe. It is a 50/50 on whether those high cards would be behind the cut card or in front. You could be at a plus twenty and still have all the face cards behind the cut card, which would be no advantage at all.

Just wondering if what I am saying makes any sense, Help would be Appreciated!!!!!

There’s a technical term for what you’re describing: bad luck. The good cards could all be behind the cut card. Or, as you acknowledge, they could all be in front of the cut card. Or they could be evenly distributed in the remaining cards. Over time they will average out to being evenly distributed.

The point is that at a TC of +5, as you describe, the player will on average have an advantage, and should bet accordingly.