Another reason why pen matters

[1357111317]

Moo when you say 99% is generous I am assuming you mean the precentage should be higher?

I know this question has been asked many times but lets try and formulate some kind of precentage of players that are AP's. I figure if we do something like number of hours played vs AP's seen.

I can say for myself that at my casino that I have never seen an AP. My guess is that I play with roughly 4 different players per hour, that would mean I have seen over 400 different players. That would lead to a precentage of 99.75% ploppies, .25% AP's.

Can any Vegas players comment on the number of AP's seen?

 

[moo321]

Moo when you say 99% is generous I am assuming you mean the precentage should be higher?

I know this question has been asked many times but lets try and formulate some kind of precentage of players that are AP's. I figure if we do something like number of hours played vs AP's seen.

I can say for myself that at my casino that I have never seen an AP. My guess is that I play with roughly 4 different players per hour, that would mean I have seen over 400 different players. That would lead to a precentage of 99.75% ploppies, .25% AP's.

Can any Vegas players comment on the number of AP's seen?

Depends on how you define an AP. I've probably been around people who thought they were counting, but couldn't, or didn't know basic, or didn't know how to ramp up bets, etc.

I'd guess there are maybe 500 people in America who could get a 1% edge by counting cards, and who have enough money to do so at at least the red chip level.

 

[bj bob]

I can say for myself that at my casino that I have never seen an AP. My guess is that I play with roughly 4 different players per hour, that would mean I have seen over 400 different players. That would lead to a precentage of 99.75% ploppies, .25% AP's.

Can any Vegas players comment on the number of AP's seen?

Your breakdown of AP's v. ploppies doesn't take into account the pct. of BS players. From my experience in Nevada anyway, 1% of all BJ players play solid BS and maybe1% of that number are AP's (i.e very few).

 

[1357111317]

Your breakdown of AP's v. ploppies doesn't take into account the pct. of BS players. From my experience in Nevada anyway, 1% of all BJ players play solid BS and maybe1% of that number are AP's (i.e very few).

With the exception of myself I think there might be 1 or two players that know 99% basic stratagy.
I will admit I have seen a couple nice 2,2 and 3,3 vs 7 splits but where I am from doubling an A,7 is unheard of. You should have seen some of the looks I get for doing that. The couple times I have doubled A,8 vs 6 just about caused riots. I also don't think I have seen anyone hit 12vs 2 or 12vs 3 that also doesnt hit things like 13 vs 4 or 14 vs 3.

When I define AP though I mean someone who actually makes money and has a bankroll, not just thinks he knows how to count because after some low cards come out the previous hand he doubles his bet.

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

I gotta agree on this...I've played ~100 hrs since learning to count...and I'm yet to see someone (in the midwest) who has resembled anything close to a counter. I'm pretty certain on that also, I know different counts have different bet raising points...but when I have a true count of 5-6 with 2 decks out of 6 left and no one else changes their bet at all...I'm certain they ain't counting. However, I will also say that I very very rarely play with people abiding by 100% BS. I'd say most people know what they're doing...half people hit 16 v. 10...even less hit a 16 v. 7...and very rarely do I see anyone play A7 right.

That's the biggest telltale for me if the people are serious about the game or BS...how do they play A7...people are afraid to double on it b/c they "have a winning hand", and rarely do I see people hit it when a 9,T, or A is showing.

I'd say 80% of people have some idea what they're doing...but I'd guess that less than 1%, maybe even as close as 0.1% truly play correct BS consistently. Then I think half people who truly play BS 100% at some point in their lives probably took a shot at counting. 24/25 of those people gave up b/c they didn't have the time to really learn, started and thought it was too hard, started with little bank roll and busted and quit, didn't think the small gain was worth the time, couldn't find any good games so quit, yada yada yada....the people who made it through this are true APs.

There for by my guessing and strange percentage estimates...I'd say 1/25 of half of the .1% of the people playing are counters. That equals .002% of the players. That means that 1 out of 50,000 BJ players are legitamate, profitable AP's...anybody think that's reasonable...seems very very low...

 

[moo321]

Your breakdown of AP's v. ploppies doesn't take into account the pct. of BS players. From my experience in Nevada anyway, 1% of all BJ players play solid BS and maybe1% of that number are AP's (i.e very few).

I don't think I've ever seen a BS player. Specifically:

1. Hits soft eighteen against 9-A
2. Soft doubles eighteen
3. Splits their nines
4. Always hits their stiffs against 7,8,9,A (A counter would stay occasionally against a ten, so I don't count tens)

I've barely seen players that do one of those things.


I would honestly estimate there are more people trying to count without knowing BS, than who actually know all of BS but don't count.

 

[bjcount]

Moo when you say 99% is generous I am assuming you mean the precentage should be higher?

I know this question has been asked many times but lets try and formulate some kind of precentage of players that are AP's. I figure if we do something like number of hours played vs AP's seen.

I can say for myself that at my casino that I have never seen an AP. My guess is that I play with roughly 4 different players per hour, that would mean I have seen over 400 different players. That would lead to a precentage of 99.75% ploppies, .25% AP's.

Can any Vegas players comment on the number of AP's seen?

Since I have never seen anyone hit 12 vs 4, 5, or 6 but me in over 600 hrs of play, I would say 0.25% of all players are AP's is awful generous.

BJC

 

[bj bob]

I don't think I've ever seen a BS player. Specifically:

1. Hits soft eighteen against 9-A
2. Soft doubles eighteen
3. Splits their nines
4. Always hits their stiffs against 7,8,9,A (A counter would stay occasionally against a ten, so I don't count tens)

I've barely seen players that do one of those things.


I would honestly estimate there are more people trying to count without knowing BS, than who actually know all of BS but don't count.

The reason I'm so generous is that occasionally I do see a few people with BS cards and actually use them. Although many do not have the correct BS card proper for the game they are playing, some are playing with BS cards for SD instead of DD. All else being equal, this would result in a rather minor effect on EV.

 

[bjtocki]

Since I have never seen anyone hit 12 vs 4, 5, or 6 but me in over 600 hrs of play, I would say 0.25% of all players are AP's is awful generous.

BJC

I remember when I just arrived at the casino then sit on a table with 2 other players, I just hit a hand on 12 vs 5 at the 3rd base, I won the hand but 2 other players lost. Those guys refused to play their hands because of my "dumb" play thinking that I am a ploppy, explaining that BJ is about beating the dealer, not making close to 21, so I had a head to head game with the dealer. Played 2 shoes for about 12 minutes, winning 55 units, apologized to the other players then left the table as soon as I could. :cool2:

 

[moo321]

The reason I'm so generous is that occasionally I do see a few people with BS cards and actually use them. Although many do not have the correct BS card proper for the game they are playing, some are playing with BS cards for SD instead of DD. All else being equal, this would result in a rather minor effect on EV.

Now that I think about it, I've seen some people with the cards at the table, but I've never seen anyone use it properly. I'm sure somewhere out there, this mythical player exists, but I've never seen him.