Anyone Want To Chalk This Up To Luck?

[CasinoBlackjack]

I've played Basic Strategy Blackjack for close to two years now and it kept me being able to play, as my money wasn't crushed, but at the same time I obviously wasn't up.

Despite knowing that the longer I play the more I stand to lose, it never really clued in to me that a hit and run approach could work well.

I decided to see if I could win $100 a day, flat betting $25 a hand, while playing heads up with the dealer. There have been days I've played with other players, but I try to keep it between me and dealer.

That idea hit be back on January 4th of this year, I've been to the Casino everyday between then and now, and although getting very tired of seeing the place, I've made the $100 every time.

Sometimes it takes me 4 hands, other times have taken me 4 hours, but I've walked with it every single time. $100 isn't really a large sum of money obviously, but it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

I'm curious to see what people have to say on the issue, especially the AP's around here. I full expect some people to say "You will hit a losing streak and it will end". Maybe so, but I will ride it until the wheels fall off.

Thoughts?

 

[creeping panther]

C

I've played Basic Strategy Blackjack for close to two years now and it kept me being able to play, as my money wasn't crushed, but at the same time I obviously wasn't up.

Despite knowing that the longer I play the more I stand to lose, it never really clued in to me that a hit and run approach could work well.

I decided to see if I could win $100 a day, flat betting $25 a hand, while playing heads up with the dealer. There have been days I've played with other players, but I try to keep it between me and dealer.

That idea hit be back on January 4th of this year, I've been to the Casino everyday between then and now, and although getting very tired of seeing the place, I've made the $100 every time.

Sometimes it takes me 4 hands, other times have taken me 4 hours, but I've walked with it every single time. $100 isn't really a large sum of money obviously, but it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

I'm curious to see what people have to say on the issue, especially the AP's around here. I full expect some people to say "You will hit a losing streak and it will end". Maybe so, but I will ride it until the wheels fall off.

Thoughts?

On a excellent game, say .17 shoe, I think a perfect basic player can accomplish this with ease. Especially if you were to learn to count with skillz, you could up the ante to $400 a day.

Let's see a $10,000 CD at 2% earns you $200 a year,,,wow,,,so this makes your string of $100 wins look pretty good in comparison.

CP

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

On a excellent game, say .17 shoe, I think a perfect basic player can accomplish this with ease. Especially if you were to learn to count with skillz, you could up the ante to $400 a day.

Let's see a $10,000 CD at 2% earns you $200 a year,,,wow,,,so this makes your string of $100 wins look pretty good in comparison.

CP

I'm not really sure if there is a lot of sarcasm in this post or not, thanks for the reply though CP.

 

[HockeXpert]

I (and almost everyone here) vote "Luck"

If I understand what you are saying, you have won $12k over 120 days of play. Since basic strategy is a strategy to minimize your losses and not a strategy to win, you are just experiencing very good luck. Although there is some merit in "quitting while you are ahead" or setting a pre-determined dearture point, you will eventually have some very bad luck where you give some if not all of your $12K back in one day where you cannot win no matter what you do and the longer you play the sooner that day will come.

Put that $12K into an investment and enjoy it.

I'm curious what you chalk your success up to? A superior betting technique?

HockeXpert

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

If I understand what you are saying, you have won $12k over 120 days of play. Since basic strategy is a strategy to minimize your losses and not a strategy to win, you are just experiencing very good luck. Although there is some merit in "quitting while you are ahead" or setting a pre-determined dearture point, you will eventually have some very bad luck where you give some if not all of your $12K back in one day where you cannot win no matter what you do and the longer you play the sooner that day will come.

Put that $12K into an investment and enjoy it.

I'm curious what you chalk your success up to? A superior betting technique?

HockeXpert

Yes, around 12k.

Don't know what to chalk the success up to, discipline, if anything. I've won the $100 in under a minute, 4 straight hands playing heads up with a dealer who knows how fast I play my game. And other times it's been a tedious grind that has taken me longer than I wished.

Understanding that the game in itself is a losing proposition, I didn't expect much to come from it, but it's almost become like a routine, it's never hard to stop playing after I've reached the $100. I enjoy playing blackjack in any form, so the first few days were the hardest to not just keep playing, now it's like second nature.

When I have a losing day I will update this thread.

 

[sabre]

By playing fewer hands, you are giving less total action, thus exposing yourself less to the house advantage, thus losing less money over the long term.

I think you'll find that most people on this forum aren't happy with "losing less" ... we strive to find ways to "win more". But that's the primary difference between an AP, and a recreational gambler such as yourself. Good for you if you've found a way to lower the amount you wager while keeping the level of enjoyment the same.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I've played Basic Strategy Blackjack for close to two years now and it kept me being able to play, as my money wasn't crushed, but at the same time I obviously wasn't up.

Despite knowing that the longer I play the more I stand to lose, it never really clued in to me that a hit and run approach could work well.

I decided to see if I could win $100 a day, flat betting $25 a hand, while playing heads up with the dealer. There have been days I've played with other players, but I try to keep it between me and dealer.

That idea hit be back on January 4th of this year, I've been to the Casino everyday between then and now, and although getting very tired of seeing the place, I've made the $100 every time.

Sometimes it takes me 4 hands, other times have taken me 4 hours, but I've walked with it every single time. $100 isn't really a large sum of money obviously, but it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

I'm curious to see what people have to say on the issue, especially the AP's around here. I full expect some people to say "You will hit a losing streak and it will end". Maybe so, but I will ride it until the wheels fall off.

Thoughts?

Here's an idea for you. If you are playing BS in a game with good rules, at a $25 flat bet, you are probably collecting some decent comps. There are stores where you are playing at a slight profit considering the comps, using your method.

Your comps are rated by your betting level and the time you spend at the table. So instead of looking for a heads-up game, look for a crowded table with really slow players. You'll be playing fewer hands, thus losing less money on the average, but acquiring comps at the same rate.

 

[Mochajack]

Every real AP on this page will rightfully chalk it up to luck.

Learn to count and double your 12k

 

[sagefr0g]

standard deviation = luck

I've played Basic Strategy Blackjack for close to two years now and it kept me being able to play, as my money wasn't crushed, but at the same time I obviously wasn't up.

Despite knowing that the longer I play the more I stand to lose, it never really clued in to me that a hit and run approach could work well.

I decided to see if I could win $100 a day, flat betting $25 a hand, while playing heads up with the dealer. There have been days I've played with other players, but I try to keep it between me and dealer.

That idea hit be back on January 4th of this year, I've been to the Casino everyday between then and now, and although getting very tired of seeing the place, I've made the $100 every time.

Sometimes it takes me 4 hands, other times have taken me 4 hours, but I've walked with it every single time. $100 isn't really a large sum of money obviously, but it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

I'm curious to see what people have to say on the issue, especially the AP's around here. I full expect some people to say "You will hit a losing streak and it will end". Maybe so, but I will ride it until the wheels fall off.

Thoughts?

yup pretty much luck. what's wrong with that, lol. but hey basic strategy a'int luck though.
another poster on here, Kasi made a remark once how he was always amazed at how relatively easy it was to make at least one unit. i've found that to be true as well. i ran a sort of a sim on that and found that pretty much 90% of the time you can succeed in making at least one unit before losing your bankroll, sort of thing. problem is it's that 10% or so of the time where you don't succeed in making a unit and then end up losing your roll.
so really then with a twenty five dollar unit one can see where it's not so hard to rack up a hundred bucks at the tables pretty often. thing is once again it's those rare times when you lose a crap load ( where the EV begins to come into play) that kill it.
so but what ever sounds like you've had some great luck early on. that situation can really give you a boost far as keeping the ride going a while and like automonkey was saying with comps that may translate into a pretty near break even situation.
heck with some counting and a few well placed bets and some knowledge of how many hands translates into what EV and some goal such as you've shot for in the past you have a good chance of keeping this going for quite a good while.
thing is just don't go spending that money you do win, cause really it's pretty much just a loan the casino has made you, a loan they will probably collect a good portion of sooner or later.

 

[Sucker]

I'm curious to see what people have to say on the issue, especially the AP's around here. I full expect some people to say "You will hit a losing streak and it will end". Maybe so, but I will ride it until the wheels fall off.

Thoughts?

Well, YES; if you keep doing this you will eventually have a session where you NEVER do get ahead, and if you keep playing you will lose it ALL back and THEN some. This is a mathematical certainty. But no one knows WHEN. It could be tomorrow, it could be ten years from now.

My ADVICE to you would be to take a big chunk of that 12k; let's say $9000, and go out and buy something with it so that you CAN'T lose it back. Or make a $9000 payment against the principle balance of your house mortgage. Then start again; if you win more, keep bleeding off your profits. Buy a car. Or a boat. That way; when the crash DOES come, you'll only lose 3 grand, and you'll have something to show for it.

An even BETTER piece of advice has already been given, by Mochajack. Learn to count cards. (but that takes a lot of work!)

 

[craazyman]

I agree with the analysis provided thus far. I can tell you that for two years I used only basic strategy, and walked away with a few thousand in winnings, without betting significant amounts. However, there were definitely some losing times in there. At the end of the day, that was luck! But, it sparked my interest in becoming an AP, so that I wouldn't lose it back!

 

[Caesar]

some questions

I have some questions about all this. First, for the original poster: What are the rules of the game where you won on all these consecutive visits? Second, what was the highest number of units you were down before getting ahead by four?
If the data is given, I wonder if QFIT or another expert would analyze it and determine the likelihood of winning four units all those sessions without a loss.
I am not trying to belittle the accomplishment. Playing basic strategy with discipline probably puts you in the top 2% of all blackjack players.

 

[CoolMike]

Two thoughts: When you do eventually end up not making it to 100 bucks your losses could be huge. You might find yourself playing longer and longer and loosing more and more hands, digging a huge hole. Every AP here can tell you a horror story of where they lost dozens of bets in a row, or where they lost a hundred units in no time at all while the count was sky high.

Second thought: Try waiting to jump in until you have seen a bunch of low cards come out of the deck / shoe. This might help you prolong the magic a little : ) For example, at a table with three players, wait until you see 4-6 low cards and only 1 or 2 high cards to jump in. This will work for you like a very rudimentary form of counting.

You can't do this if you want to play headsup of course, but I can tell you that playing heads up doesn't help your winning percentage, although it will speed up the rate of play.

 

[MountainMan]

What does your plan call for after 24 hours of play without winning $100? Do you take the next day off from your day job, or are you retired? Is there a limit to how long you would play to make the $100? (days, weeks, months, years, etc.) Someday you will find yourself trapped at the casino for eternity! (or at least until you run out of cash) MM

 

[caramel6]

hit and run

I've played Basic Strategy Blackjack for close to two years now and it kept me being able to play, as my money wasn't crushed, but at the same time I obviously wasn't up.

Despite knowing that the longer I play the more I stand to lose, it never really clued in to me that a hit and run approach could work well.

I decided to see if I could win $100 a day, flat betting $25 a hand, while playing heads up with the dealer. There have been days I've played with other players, but I try to keep it between me and dealer.

That idea hit be back on January 4th of this year, I've been to the Casino everyday between then and now, and although getting very tired of seeing the place, I've made the $100 every time.

Sometimes it takes me 4 hands, other times have taken me 4 hours, but I've walked with it every single time. $100 isn't really a large sum of money obviously, but it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

I'm curious to see what people have to say on the issue, especially the AP's around here. I full expect some people to say "You will hit a losing streak and it will end". Maybe so, but I will ride it until the wheels fall off.

Thoughts?

Hi , I try to do something simular as yourslef since February, not everyday though, because of my other commitments.

So far it brought me a couple of grand, all though there were days I (very few0 when I could not win anything. I try to combine it with counting 9wonging ) wheneer possible.

I stopped playing for a while due to a personal circumstances, but will start shortly.May I kindly ask you :

1. What was an amount you lost at most on an unlucky days before eventually won 100 ?

2. Do you always flat bet?

3.If lost more than a few hundred, do you still flat bet or increase (decrease ) your wager?

If you get an access to a private e mail, would PM you. Best regards,

 

[tfg]

I'm mainly a recreational player that plays BS and does some counting ( I'm not very good at it at all) but I know how it works and from time to time I'll use at little knockout blackjack strategy where I just count the 7 as a -1 and start at whatever the starting point is at for the number of decks. I'll also use some situational betting where I just survey the table and if the last few hands are +10 or so differential between high and low cards I'll up the betting.

I've done something similar to this in the past, where I'll just play until I win something and then quit for the day and I've been able to win a decent amount. The one thing I've noticed about playing basic strategy is that while the house has the edge, there are normal fluctuations during the course of play where you are ahead and the house is ahead. If you do what the poster is suggesting, you can leave when you are ahead and probably do this for a while, but you will come into a session at some point where if this poster is betting $25, where he'll be down like $500-$700 or something. But if you're doing it for a month and win $3k and then drop 500 or 700, then you're still ahead.

Also, if you don't play through an entire shoe, then why can't this work? Everybody always waits until the end of the shoe and a high count to get some bigger bets down, but what if all of the high cards come out in the first 4-5 rounds. You are in essence winning your bets and then leaving when you're ahead and not playing the crappy part of the shoe. I would think if you grind it out and do what the poster is saying, then you'll run into a couple big losses but for the most part, like someone above said, 90% of the time you could probably win the 4 units. I should probably add that you'd probably have to increase betting from time to time. When I've done this I normally will double the bet when I see the advantageous situation. A strictly flat bet would make this tougher.

 

[Sonny]

You are in essence winning your bets and then leaving when you're ahead and not playing the crappy part of the shoe.

But you are playing the crappy part of the shoe. In fact, you're playing the crappiest part of the shoe there is - the beginning! The house always starts with the advantage, and the count is unlikely to swing high enough to give you any real advantage. That is why people try to avoid it unless they know that the high cards are at the top.

As far as the stop-loss limits, the sticky thread at the top of this forum will explain why they don't help (other than making you lose money much slower). Walking away from a table doesn't change the fact that the house has the edge. You can get up, sit down, sit out a hand, switch to multiple hands or do anything you want. The house still has the edge. You should still expect to lose.

-Sonny-

 

[kewljason]

I don't know, sonny. I think there is some value in tfg's post, but not for the reasons he thinks. If you play every shoe off the top, and every shoe were to go negative within a few hands and then leave, you would in a sense being playing those hands at an advantage as the high cards were coming out. Problem is, that of course this is all hindsight. You don't know this until after the fact. But if you played this way, leaving at a predetermined point (negative count) and increased you wager to 2 units as he suggusted during advantageous situations, (positive count), these two things alone could be enough to make the game a very slight advantageous one in the long run, depending on rules, which could yeild a very small predetermined winrate of a couple of units. The variance would be great for such a small return though. Basically playing a wong out game with a 1-2 spread.

 

[tfg]

Yeah, I mean if you leave during the middle of a shoe having won a couple units, then you haven't necessarily played with an advantage but you eliminate the fluctuation back to the mathematical norms. If you play every shoe all the way through, then that's when the mathematics have to average out to the 43% wins, 48% losses. I would think this would kind of be "wonging out" rather than "wonging in". I do understand however, how you are starting at a disadvantage. But to grind out a few units every session can be done. If you had a big enough bankroll, even if you go down a couple hundred doing the $25 bet that the original poster said, you'd have to eventually start to level back out at some point if you're playing the basic strategy, right?

 

[kewljason]

Yeah, I mean if you leave during the middle of a shoe having won a couple units, then you haven't necessarily played with an advantage

If you leave at a negative count after a few hands then you were playing at an advantage. Tens and Aces where coming out during your few hands, causing the count to go negative. But as I said, you wouldn't know this until after the fact. (hindsight) As for the rest of your post, as the others have stated, you are not going to be able to come up with a system that will have longterm success based soley on positive fluctuation.