After reading many of post here and some books (BJ for Blood, Blackbelt in Blackjack, Kelly system, Beat the dealer...) I finally come with strategy (please correct me if I'm wrong in anything):
Game rules: 6D, S17, DAS, D 9-11, No Surrender, No Peek
1. Counting strategy: Zen-count (advice from zg)
True count adj: 1D
2. Indices for play:
Stand 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X A
17 S S S S S S S S S S
16 S S S S S H H 8 0 H
15 -10 -12 S S S H H 13 6 H
14 -6 -8 -9 -12 -12 H H 20 12 H
13 -2 -4 -5 -8 -8 H H H H H
12 6 3 0 -2 -2 H H H H H
A7 S S S S S S S H H H
DOUBLE DOWN, HARD TOTALS
Double 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X A
11 D D D D D D -14 -10 H H
10 D D D D D D -9 -4 H H
9 2 -2 -5 D D 7 H H H H
PAIR SPLITS
WITH DOUBLE AFTER SPLITS
Pairs 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T A
(A,A) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N
(T,T) N 13 12 11 10 N N N N N
(9,9) -4 -8 -8 Y Y 4 Y Y N N
(8,8) Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N
(7,7) Y Y Y Y Y Y 4 N N N
(6,6) -4 -8 Y Y Y N N N N N
(5,5) N N N N N N N N N N
(4,4) N 12 4 0 -4 N N N N N
(3,3) -8 Y Y Y Y Y 8 N N N
(2,2) -8 -8 Y Y Y Y 12 N N N
As you see I didn't round much but I left out the high 2-digit numbers because they don't have much efect on PE (especially negative ones).
3. Betting:
Acording to Kelly beting you sholud bet the percent advantage you have of your bankroll.
Example: Bankroll :10000 $
If your advantage is 1 % you sholud bet 100 $.
If your advantage is 2.5 % you should bet 250 $.
I was a little puzzeld why we don't use Kelly betting because it is the perfect way to bet. And here are my reasons:
Kelly betting says that if the house has the advantage you shouldn't bet at all (which is not allways possible). So with any negative count you shouldn't bet.
If the count is + 16 (the advantage is 3.5 %) and we should bet 3.5 % of our bankroll (assuming it is our maximum bet). We have just under 29 of these we have a great risk of ruin. (I acctualy don't know what is it but some of you can calculate it)
So here is my sugestion:
According to Arnold Snyder you should bet every "kelly unit" for 1/2 % of your advantage (every +2 TC):
1 ku - 0% +2 (because you start with -0.5 %)
2 ku - 0.5 % +4
3 ku - 1 % +6
4 ku - 1.5 % +8 and so on.
He sugested that we devide our bankroll by 400 to get the kelly unit.
Example:
Bankroll: 8000 $ (kelly unit = 20 $)
bet sperad: 20 $ -160 $
20 $ - 0 % TC: +2
40 $ - 0.5 % +4
60 $ - 1 % +6
80 $ - 1.5 % +8
100 $ - 2 % +10
120 $ - 2.5 % +12
140 $ - 3 % +14
160 $ - 3.5 % +16
Now if you adjust your kelly unit for every +/- 2000 $ of bankroll you'd get this: bankroll bet sperad max bet units lost (amount)
8000 $ 20-160 $ 12 2000 $
6000 $ 15-130 $ 17 2000 $
4000 $ 10-80 $ 25 2000 $
2000 $ 5-40 $ 50 2000 $
As you can see I'm always using 1-8 bet spread and at the end you should lose 104 your max bet units to lose all your money.
1. I'm wondering did I overlook something here or is every thing I wrote true?
2. Is it to complicated to use it in casino and whats the gain of all this?
Once again to remind you, I'm new to all of this so if I made some terrible mistakes my apologies.
gargamel