Are my results normal (or close)?

[sruly2020]

Hi. Ive been playing for the past few months in AC. I started out with $1500 and that is replenish able as many times as i need to. I go about once a week for around 10 hrs (dif casinos) and my typical game is 6 deck( sometimes 8), around 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cut off, spread 10-100 (try for 2x75 at TC of +5), and i try to play with as few ppl on my table as possible. I use hi-lo with most of illustrious 18 (no splitting 10s) and i rarely get distracted. I usually play-all and will wong out at a TC of -1 1/2. Sometimes i backcount and wong in at a TC of about 1 1/2. In my first month I lost my entire $1500, and then i got it back with my new $1500, plus $360 ($3,360). Then yesterday, i lost $1,100 in about an hr at one casino. I was in shock. The most i/d lost before that was $790, but this time I blew my entire trip bankroll. In one freakin hour. It's funny b/c a week ago at the same casino, I bought in with $40 and walked out with over $1200. I never expected the flux to be this crazy. I also thought thered be a good chance id be positive by now. But im down $750. I know its not a terrible amount and im fine with it as long as i know that this is within the normal range for someone who has played around 104 hrs. Is this normal? I dont think theres anything wrong with my counting. I know i should be in the positive by now. PLease ask me questions if theres anything you feel i left out. im not sure exactly how much, but i also know about the whole standard deviation thing. So if someone could look at this and let me know if this is normal, id really appreciate it. cuz im scared. and could really use all the help i could get. thanks.

These are my individual results from the start:

first $1500
+110
+80
-143
-12
-285
-55
-490
-731

next $1500
+42
+423
+277
-25
+79
+247
+1,212
-445
-1,100

 

[UK-21]

Out of interest, due you have a record of the total value of the action you have put across the felt in your 104 hours of play?

 

[sruly2020]

Out of interest, due you have a record of the total value of the action you have put across the felt in your 104 hours of play?

o gosh-You mean how much money I've put in play the whole time? damn, I don't have that. do you need that to determine if my results are normal? I keep track of wins/losses, time, venue and date.. I don't know how I could calculate the total amount of $ I've played with. thanks for responding though..

 

[UK-21]

OK, let's make a rough supposition . . .

You've played 104 hours. At 75 hands an hour that equates to 7800 hands. Assuming an average bet of $17 (taken from a spreadsheet I have rustled up for a 1-8 spread which isn't accurate to the nth degree but is good enough to illustrate the point here - I'm sure someone else can provide a more precise average bet amount based on the details you gave previously) that would equate to $132,600 of total betting. So overall, your $750 cumulative loss therefore equates to 0.56% of the total wagered to date. Perhaps that puts it in perspective?

For your session from hell, again assuming 75 hands per hour and $17 average bet, the total wagered would be $1,275, so losing $1,100 does look odd. But let's assume that you had a high number of +counts and the average bet was, say, $40. The total betting would then be $3,000, and losing $1,100 would put the result between one and two StdDevs off the EV - so nothing suspicious there. But this is all supposition and it's hard to say whether your results are off key without knowing what went on in your hour of play. Can you remember roughly how often you were putting multiple unit bets out or playing 2 hands? If you rarely put out more than a $10/1 unit bet on a single hand, then to lose 110 units in 75 hands would be suspicious, as it would mean that you would have had to have lost just about every hand, if not all, that you played.


As an afterthought, I would say there are better people than I who crunch the numbers who regularly contribute to this board, and perhaps they can bring a different perspective to your query?

 

[21forme]

You're not bringing enough money for a $100 max bet. You are likely hitting some negative variance during a big count. When you can't continue betting in that big count is when you really lose.

 

[rukus]

100 pct completely normal. In AC 104 hours is nothing. Those games, especially if you play all (something you should not be doing in ac), have N0s above 200 hours. What that means is you'd have to play 200+ hours just to overcome 1 std dev of bad variance and end up where you began. You will hit this bad of variance about 17.5 pct of the time (almost 1 in 5!). To overcome 2 std devs you'd have to play 800 hours... Again, that is just to end up FLAT, not positive. This will happen about 2.5 pct of the time.

So your results are completely normal. When playing blackjack, particularly "poor" AC games (not all are poor, and it depends how you play em), there is no such thing as "I know I should be positive".

Be patient. Get to 400-500 or so hours and you'll likely see results approaching EV in my experience. Easy, quick money, huh?

Rukus

 

[FLASH1296]

Playing with so little money in your jeans is an egregious error, and that cannot be emphasized enough.

If your time and money is virtually infinite then you will win (over time) with > 99+% probability.

If your money is severely limited, as is yours, your chances are very poor.
This problem is compounded by your weak bet ramp. It would be a far better
situation for you if you were able to spread something more powerful e.g. $5 to $100.

It is important for a beginner to understand that at the best True Counts that you are likely
to see you remain an underdog to win the next hand once you place your bet.
It is indeed likely that you have never been a favorite.
Losing numerous successive LARGE bets is completely normal.
With so little money in your bankroll, you will frequently go bust in a hurry.
Please re-read this as it is important.

You need to understand Risk of Ruin better.

One question:
How did you come up with your bankroll sizing ?

 

[mathman]

I'd have to agree with everyone else, you don't carry enough money for the way you are betting. Everyone experiences negative variance, it's a killer and if you're betting heavy, with $1K to $1 1/2K in your pocket, it takes less than a normal amount of "bad luck":cry: to wipe you out. A $100 big bet is too high for a bank of $1000 unless things are going your way. You will win and lose the number of hands pretty close to the percentages of the game so your betting amounts vs. bankroll need to be able to withstand the losses. If you provide exact amounts and the rules by which you're playing, somebody here will calculate your R.o.R.. From experience I can tell you AC can be tough sometimes. The rules really aren't the best anymore and penetration has been bad also which severely hurts your game. Don't fool yourself into thinking because you can count cards that will make you an automatic winner, it won't. Patience, proper betting and sufficient bank roll will, with no mistakes, yield a profit. This is work, it is not easy money. When you are "lucky" it is easy but when things are normal or worse it takes effort and patience. Good luck and good cards....JtMM

ps) Read this post, it will help you understand. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=13026

 

[sagefr0g]

congradulations your asking the right questions

Hi. Ive been playing for the past few months in AC. I started out with $1500 and that is replenish able as many times as i need to. I go about once a week for around 10 hrs (dif casinos) and my typical game is 6 deck( sometimes 8), around 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cut off, spread 10-100 (try for 2x75 at TC of +5), and i try to play with as few ppl on my table as possible. I use hi-lo with most of illustrious 18 (no splitting 10s) and i rarely get distracted. I usually play-all and will wong out at a TC of -1 1/2. Sometimes i backcount and wong in at a TC of about 1 1/2. In my first month I lost my entire $1500, and then i got it back with my new $1500, plus $360 ($3,360). Then yesterday, i lost $1,100 in about an hr at one casino. I was in shock. The most i/d lost before that was $790, but this time I blew my entire trip bankroll. In one freakin hour. It's funny b/c a week ago at the same casino, I bought in with $40 and walked out with over $1200. I never expected the flux to be this crazy. I also thought thered be a good chance id be positive by now. But im down $750. I know its not a terrible amount and im fine with it as long as i know that this is within the normal range for someone who has played around 104 hrs. Is this normal? I dont think theres anything wrong with my counting. I know i should be in the positive by now. PLease ask me questions if theres anything you feel i left out. im not sure exactly how much, but i also know about the whole standard deviation thing. So if someone could look at this and let me know if this is normal, id really appreciate it. cuz im scared. and could really use all the help i could get. thanks.

These are my individual results from the start:

first $1500
+110
+80
-143
-12
-285
-55
-490
-731

next $1500
+42
+423
+277
-25
+79
+247
+1,212
-445
-1,100

imho it's a sign of a true AP the questions your asking. the idea that you could go out and give it a shot as an AP and then come back and take a yard stick and compare your results against say the most perfect card counter in the world sort of thing, lol.
but as far as asking if there is anything you left out, we would want to know all the exact rules, number of decks, penetration, how many people at the table, how you figure your true count for hi/lo, the bet spread and how you ramp your bets. then you mentioned wongings sometimes, sometimes not. so we'd want to know just exactly when you wonged and when you played all. so really ultimately there would probably be segments of play for which you approached the game in a given way for some number of hands sort of thing. knowing that we could then analyze each of those segments and compare your results against the most perfect card counter in the world, lmao.
i think it was shadrock who said give a man a fish and he eats today, teach a man to fish and he eats everyday. :whip:
so really to answer your question of how normal this normal stuff is what you would want would be a simulator like QFIT's CVCX and probably a spreadsheet like Kasi's. you can read about that stuff in the links below:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=122745&postcount=21

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=123015&postcount=30

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=123016&postcount=31

 

[Canceler]

Here's a crude ballpark estimate using some rather generic assumptions (in the absence of better data).

 

[kewljason]

Hi. Ive been playing for the past few months in AC. I started out with $1500 and that is replenish able as many times as i need to. I go about once a week for around 10 hrs (dif casinos) and my typical game is 6 deck( sometimes 8), around 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cut off, spread 10-100 (try for 2x75 at TC of +5), and i try to play with as few ppl on my table as possible. I use hi-lo with most of illustrious 18 (no splitting 10s) and i rarely get distracted. I usually play-all and will wong out at a TC of -1 1/2. Sometimes i backcount and wong in at a TC of about 1 1/2. In my first month I lost my entire $1500, and then i got it back with my new $1500, plus $360 ($3,360). Then yesterday, i lost $1,100 in about an hr at one casino. I was in shock. The most i/d lost before that was $790, but this time I blew my entire trip bankroll. In one freakin hour. It's funny b/c a week ago at the same casino, I bought in with $40 and walked out with over $1200. I never expected the flux to be this crazy. I also thought thered be a good chance id be positive by now. But im down $750. I know its not a terrible amount and im fine with it as long as i know that this is within the normal range for someone who has played around 104 hrs. Is this normal? I dont think theres anything wrong with my counting. I know i should be in the positive by now. PLease ask me questions if theres anything you feel i left out. im not sure exactly how much, but i also know about the whole standard deviation thing. So if someone could look at this and let me know if this is normal, id really appreciate it. cuz im scared. and could really use all the help i could get. thanks.

I though I'd weigh in since I play 20-25 hours a week playing the same AC games as you. I agree completely that with the previous posts that you should have more than 15 max bets on you for 10 hours of play. There is nothing worse than running out of money with a monster count. Other than that it sounds as if you are doing ok to me. The AC game is a bitch!! you need a substantial spread to beat it and a substantial BR to withstand the the wild swings, as you are learning. 1 and 1/4 decks cut off is about as good as you can get in AC. I would stay away from HET properties and try to play the casinos that still stand on soft 17. You also said you play all and wong out at counts of -1& 1/2. not sure what that means? are you playing all or wonging out. There really is no reason to play all negative counts with so many tables available, unless you are playing weekends when $10 tables are harder to come by. Definately get out of those negative counts and find a new table.

for the most part your winnings and losses for a session are directly the results of what happens at those High counts. It only takes a few times of the dealer turning a crappy bust card into a 20 and beating you when you have your max bet out and have a couple split and/or double downs to royally screw up your results. Especially in the short run, which you are still in.

My advise, stick with it and if there's nothing wrong with your counting and play as you suggust, somewhere in the next few hundred hours you will look up and be exactly where you should be. It still amazes me. good luck

 

[ohbehave]

Here's a crude ballpark estimate using some rather generic assumptions (in the absence of better data).

Looks almost exactly like my data from the first 60+ hours of play. My high point was +2300 and low point -300. I'm currently at +300USD.
2 days ago I had a +$1200 day followed the next day by -1000... in 30 minutes of play! I'm playing at about the same EV as you, Sruly.

 

[sruly2020]

thanks for all the replies. I just got back from AC again, and this time was by far the worst ive ever seen. not in terms of how i did, but the actual games. i played the same couple of places i usually play, and in around 11 hours, never had the opportunity to put out my high bet (TC+5). NOT ONCE. anyone ever seen this? i only saw a TC of +4 once, and the count was either neutral or negative the rest of the time. i ended up losing $125. so now im down $875. the rules i play with are DAS, resplit 3 times, no resplit aces, around 75-80 pen, mostly 6 deck, sometimes 8. What i mean by wong out, is, if i play-all, then when the count gets to around -1 1/2, ill go and use the bathroom or make a phone call and come back for the shuffle. i thought this practice would allow me to keep my betting spread somewhat moderate (1-10) b/c i dont sit through the negative counts. i know wverything happens during the high counts, so if there are no high counts, nothing happens! also, i noted during this little trip, that it seemed that no one at either casino was making anything. every table i sat at quickly went negative, chip piles were dwindling, ppl were bitching, and there were no screams of delight, or any excitement at all. never seen anything like it. weird.

also, i know card counting is not an easy path to riches. i dont plan to make this my career. i just truly enjoy the casino atmosphere, the intersting ppl, the challenge, the hot cocktail waitresses, and everything. at this point, i do have a lot of time on my hands and this is something i enjoy.

 

[21forme]

I've had days where 3 or 4 shoes in a row go positive and other days where I wong out of shoe after shoe. In a 6-8D game you'll only see a +5 TC 1-2% of the time, so if you played 50 shoes in your 11 hours, that's about 1.

From QFIT's work:

 

[zengrifter]

Hi. Ive been playing for the past few months in AC. I started out with $1500 and that is replenish able as many times as i need to. I go about once a week for around 10 hrs (dif casinos) and my typical game is 6 deck( sometimes 8), around 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cut off, spread 10-100 (try for 2x75 at TC of +5), and i try to play with as few ppl on my table as possible. I use hi-lo with most of illustrious 18 (no splitting 10s) and i rarely get distracted. I usually play-all and will wong out at a TC of -1 1/2. Sometimes i backcount and wong in at a TC of about 1 1/2. In my first month I lost my entire $1500, and then i got it back with my new $1500, plus $360 ($3,360). Then yesterday, i lost $1,100 in about an hr at one casino. I was in shock. The most i/d lost before that was $790, but this time I blew my entire trip bankroll. In one freakin hour. It's funny b/c a week ago at the same casino, I bought in with $40 and walked out with over $1200. I never expected the flux to be this crazy. I also thought thered be a good chance id be positive by now. But im down $750. I know its not a terrible amount and im fine with it as long as i know that this is within the normal range for someone who has played around 104 hrs. Is this normal? I dont think theres anything wrong with my counting. I know i should be in the positive by now. PLease ask me questions if theres anything you feel i left out. im not sure exactly how much, but i also know about the whole standard deviation thing. So if someone could look at this and let me know if this is normal, id really appreciate it. cuz im scared. and could really use all the help i could get. thanks.

These are my individual results from the start:

first $1500
+110
+80
-143
-12
-285
-55
-490
-731

next $1500
+42
+423
+277
-25
+79
+247
+1,212
-445
-1,100

You need to wong as much as possible - reverse-wong whenever the TC drops below -1.5. If you cannot reenter the shoe when it rises then pick another fresh shoe and start over, if you cannot wong-in to another table. Choose your playing times accordingly. zg

Ps - Your results are normal. PlayAll 1-10 won't cut it in AC.