Bad Luck or lack of skill puts me Negative!

[Cardcounter]

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting.
On Watching breaking vegas the Mit team said that they hit a bad streak on a couple of positive shoes and they ran out of money because of over betting before the shoe ran out of cards and the rest of shoe was really positive.

 

[EasyRhino]

I've been treading water for six months now.

Might be both.

 

[TommyMoe21]

Playing at too high of stakes and overbetting are two different things insomuch that one is related to your bankroll and one is dependant on the specific count. Keep in mind that a high count is no guarantee of a win. Some of the worst beatings I've ever taken were on really good counts. Like doubles and splits with high counts and big spreads and the dealer still beats you. If you are confident of your counting, things should even out in time if your bankroll permits. Good Luck!

 

[Brock Windsor]

I had the same problem. In reality for the stakes I play BJ wasn't worth my time as I didn't have the stomach for full kelly betting...but once you find ways to get a better advantage you can cut that flux down. Presuming you do a lot of backcounting, keep an eye out for flashing dealers.

 

[la_dee_daa]

Like doubles and splits with high counts and big spreads and the dealer still beats you.

thats how counting started for me:cry:

 

[sagefr0g]

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting.
On Watching breaking vegas the Mit team said that they hit a bad streak on a couple of positive shoes and they ran out of money because of over betting before the shoe ran out of cards and the rest of shoe was really positive.

well really thats not to bad $65 behind. have you been having fun? i don't mean to sound callous, i think you are probably disappointed. and i can relate to that. probably you've been up a good deal and now back down. so you have my sympathy.
just curious do you have a rock firm max bet or do you vary how much you are willing to bet according to what ever?
i'll say it but you already know it and i've been mistaken to do it as well.
overbetting is one of the most serious mistakes we can make. steaming even worse.
i ask if you were having fun. it was a serious question. that's related to your statement with regard to playing at stakes that are to big. the idea that stakes are to big (beyond nailing down a reasonable big bet with respect to your bankroll and ROR) is personal decision that you must make. it can go a long way to helping you feel better about what ever happens. sure it will still suck to lose money, but if it is with respect to 'stakes' that you have made peace with then it will likely be less of a burden to tolerate.
i might just add from my personal perspective i'm reluctantly able to have fun for the most part with about the lowest max bet's and level of ramp that can give one a chance with the games available to me. even then i know i'd be down in the dumps on a losing streak. but finding my tolerance level (which may be laughable to others) has i truly believe helped me deal with the game psychologicaly.

 

[Kasi]

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting. .

Well it's a great question. I mean if you can't relate your results to a card-counting plan, how does one ever know? Is being able to, in some way anyway, part of being an AP card-counter?

Do you have a plan when you play and then stick to it? What makes you "think" you are over-betting? You decide that beforehand I would think. Or are you really just betting different amounts all the time just because maybe the count is really really high?

Like I count and know when I have an advantage, I can apply indexes and do, if I increase my bet it's usually at least in a positive count. Once in my youth I back-counted and jumped in with a $1000 bet lol. I sometimes book on a bad count, never on a good one. I even know how much money I won doing this.

But even though I count I certainly don't consider myself a card-counter by any stretch of the imagination because I'm never applying a plan and have nothing to relate my results to.

I suppose I could delude myself and say "wow, this counting stuff really works" or something or I got away with a 20-1 spread because I jumped from $10 to $200 but that would be silly to me.

I suppose my definition of a card-counter might be a little narrower than other people's lol.

 

[Jeff25]

Lack of skill?

I bet you wern't questioning your skill when you were up 100's? I had/have the same problem. After a long down swing or even a real bad shoe I will sometimes think a mistake or a lack of skill is to blame. These type of thoughts arn't healthy and can cloud your proper judgment. Bad luck a.k.a negative varience can play tricks with the mind. This game can hard to get ahead, like rhino said "you can be treading water for months"

 

[Cardcounter]

Spreads

My bets are wild and are all over the place at the start and get more correlated on the second round, however I have a lack of attention and do not bet as acurately on the third round or later. Being backed off from several casinos throws off my game a little bit when I enter other casinos. Once I was playing a $25 table with only $700 on me and there I thought that I was making a mistake by playing for too high of stakes for my bankroll.
I think that my skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players but I also don't think I have the concentration or skill to count down a 6 deck shoe, I think 2 decks is my limit and I stick to good rules on 1 deck.

 

[ihate17]

The ihate non scale of blackjack compitence

I think that my skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players but I also don't think I have the concentration or skill to count down a 6 deck shoe, I think 2 decks is my limit and I stick to good rules on 1 deck.

Cardcounter:
Say the same thing and come up with two completely different meanings.
My skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players:
This means you perhaps almost play basic strategy but make a few errors and do not count cards. You are one of the best blackjack players in the casino, in the top percent and instead of losing you money at a rate higher than the usual person's 3%, you lose at a rate of perhaps less than 1%. But you lose, as most do in the top 1%!!!

Or do you mean you are one of the top 1% of blackjack advantage players? But you can not mean that and then say that the concentration and skill to play a shoe game is currently beyond you. When one talks of cardcounters, I think perhaps much less than .25% of players and to be in the top 1% of that tiny group (perhaps 4 or 5 people in the world) are truly special.

So based on your statement, you perhaps did not mean what you said, but obviously are considering yourself top 1% of all players and I am telling you that you must be better than that.

More important than a semantics exercise is the fact that your losing streak and total loss of $65 means nothing in terms of either variance or skill. You are far from approaching any meaninful playing time that can be evaluated and even then you would be a total of one $65 win from break even.

As they say in the old country (the Bronx) fuggataboutit.

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

If you're having trouble accurately holding the count into the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds of single deck games, then that means you need to plug holes in your game.

If you're keeping the count, but not accurately betting into the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds, it might be a betting discipline problem.

If you're not even getting 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounds, then you're playing at tables that are too crowded, or playing games with horrible penetration.

 

[la_dee_daa]

But even though I count I certainly don't consider myself a card-counter by any stretch of the imagination because I'm never applying a plan and have nothing to relate my results to.

well if you play when you have an advantage i think you are a card counter. If you count cards you would be a card counter even if you decide to play with a ror of like 70% you just aren't a very good card counter:laugh:.

i count cards, play indicies... only hard 15s and 16s seem to come up though... proper bet spread and vary my plan on wonging and play all depending how busy the casino is...

i sometime just stop counting near the end of a shoe if its gone nutreal or negative just because only with a couple rounds left usually and have a fuzzy idea after i have been there for while.. because of this my card counting is a little sloppy somethimes, but when i place high bets im on my game knowing whats going on.

so far i have lost every time and almost every hand thats more then a min bet. and im sticking to variance..

how can you be that bad to lose 10 strait hands in high counts.... maybe it was hitting all those hard 18s trying to give the deal a bust card:laugh:

 

[bj bob]

My bets are wild and are all over the place at the start and get more correlated on the second round, however I have a lack of attention and do not bet as acurately on the third round or later. Being backed off from several casinos throws off my game a little bit when I enter other casinos. Once I was playing a $25 table with only $700 on me and there I thought that I was making a mistake by playing for too high of stakes for my bankroll.
I think that my skill level is in the top 1% of blackjack players but I also don't think I have the concentration or skill to count down a 6 deck shoe, I think 2 decks is my limit and I stick to good rules on 1 deck.

You may very well have some holes in your game. Since I know you pretty much play SD and maybe some DD, you should have already reached your N0, somewhere between 4,500 hands and 6,000~. That's 45 hrs. min. and 75 hrs. max. You, in theory should have yielded some sort of profit. On the other hand, having played to N0, you have not lost anything either. That means you are playing a break even game...not bad, but still not profitable. So, where do you go from here? The answer is probably in the wild bet spreads. Stick to the conventional system and concentrate on the count later in the deck. This is where the prime filet is left from the bone and is so critical in a pitch game, the RC meets or exceeds the TC so take full advantage of it. Spend less time on worrying about cover and more time on the precise betting applications. If you're worried about heat keep the sessions to <1/2 hour and get the hell out. There are over a dozen great games in that town so keep movin' around.

 

[Kasi]

If you count cards you would be a card counter even if you decide to play with a ror of like 70% you just aren't a very good card counter:laugh:.

No no. It means I'm a "bold fearless" counter unlike those pansy-ass full Kelly betters lmao.

Jeff - I like it - we're all geniuses when we're ahead but it's bad luck when we're not.

CC - only you know for sure but it just sounds like you don't always seem to have a clear betting plan before you play. Have you ever had one and tried to follow it? I doubt if your skill level is much of a factor.

If you do have a clear betting plan before you play and follow it best as you can, you can measure the lilklihood of results achieved versus expected results for each plan.

If you don't, you can't. Pretty simple really.

If it's the latter, then, congratulations, you are now a Super AP like me betting pretty much anyway I feel like lol.

Make a $66 bet next time you are in a positive count and, if you win it, you'll know this card-counting stuff really works lol.

Since I know, and with good reason lol, nobody wants that label stuck on them, all I can suggest is, incredibly boring as it is, maybe going forward at least have a plan, whatever it is, that you try to consistently stick to. Even if it's for a 100 hands. At least it's measurable that way. Do that every time you have a different plan like when you wong vs play-all or go from 1 deck to 2 decks. At least that way, eventually you'll be in a better position to assess your skill factor. Well, you will if you record what your plan was and how long you played afterward each time. No yardstick why bother? Just stop fooling yourself and call it voodoo. Or, if you prefer, a card-counting genius if you're ahead and an unlucky card-counting genius if you're behind.

Ten years from now, if all you know is I've won x dollars, while perhaps playing 1, 2 and 6 deck games, betting this way and that, with different spreads, etc you'll never know whether it was card-counting or voodoo. Just like now lol.

Whatever - I'm not saying it's easy to do it right. The right way to me anyway. When I actually have bet with a plan, trust me, I was like a hobo on a ham sandwich trying to figure out if that $400 I lost in an hour was in anyway reasonable or not compared to the almighty "Plan" lol. There was nothing else to care about. Either the results were reasonable, I was either maybe really lucky or unlucky, or I possibly sucked at this stuff. What else IS there to care about? It sure as heck isn't any absolute dollar amount as if that meant anything at all.

 

[Cardcounter]

Top 1% of blackjack players!

I consider myself to be in the top 1% of blackjack players not in the top 1% of counters. I think that I'm a fairly solid player who doesn't lose nearly as much as the table theo says that I should but does not win as much as good card counter. The top 1% of card counters is like the MIT team who won millions. As a dealer in 2 years of working at the blackjack players I have only seen less than 5 players that could play at my level or better. I think that I would be a much better player if I thought that the pit did not care if I was winning. I hate it when the dealer tells me that I dealt too you and I remember that you did pretty good last time you where here.

 

[sagefr0g]

I consider myself to be in the top 1% of blackjack players not in the top 1% of counters. I think that I'm a fairly solid player who doesn't lose nearly as much as the table theo says that I should but does not win as much as good card counter. The top 1% of card counters is like the MIT team who won millions. As a dealer in 2 years of working at the blackjack players I have only seen less than 5 players that could play at my level or better. I think that I would be a much better player if I thought that the pit did not care if I was winning. I hate it when the dealer tells me that I dealt too you and I remember that you did pretty good last time you where here.

well your in a novel position to analyze this dealer, advantage player and pit relationship thing. i mean you know whats going on in your mind when dealing to an AP or a decent player. you know some other dealers and pit crew and you know the sorts of things they talk about. so you should know the score about lots of thngs i wish i knew. lol .

 

[Diver]

Cognitive function

can be compromized when blood sugar, glucose, levels are low. This article examines how people shift from logical reasoning to intuition when they don't have enough glucose. And just the act of reasoning appears to use up glucose, so I'd think that after a few hours of playing BJ, one might need to refuel in order to stay sharp. Zengrifter has elsewhere pointed out the likely roll of subconcious responses to singaling, but that's different than gut level, unconcious, reactions. The takeaway is that it's possible for one's play to fall off if you're not adequately fortified.
http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10918158

 

[EasyRhino]

Thanks for the link Diver, I'll make sure to keep mixing my vodkas with Red Bulls.

I consider myself to be in the top 1% of blackjack players not in the top 1% of counters.

You probably have a better idea of how many players come by your table knowing knowing basic strategy, but I really do think it's around 1%. Maybe 2%. So unfortunately, being better than 99% would still mean you're losing money.

If you're counting, even if poorly, you've probably managed to gain at least a small advantage, especially in single deck games. The problem is making the advantage big enough, and the variance small enough, to where you can actually recoup that theoretical advantage.

 

[shadroch]

Earlier this year I was several hundred dollars ahead now for the whole year I'm now $65 behind. It is kind of blow to know that right now I'm behind at blackjack for the year, last year blackjack was the only game that I was ahead of. I think one of my biggest problems is playing for too big of stakes and overbetting.
On Watching breaking vegas the Mit team said that they hit a bad streak on a couple of positive shoes and they ran out of money because of over betting before the shoe ran out of cards and the rest of shoe was really positive.

So what if you are down $65. Haven't you gotten several times that in comps? You are what,two big bets away from being even and you are worried?

 

[Cardcounter]

Comps

I hit any other bad losing session and right now I'm down about $600 down on the year. I have gotten over $200 in Comps from just one place that I have been backed off from. I tried to get my comps in cash back but you can't get cash back for table games just slots. My balance at that Casino is about $172. I think that I play a winning game and have maybe .1% advantage over the casino after I tip.