Bankroll advice for a new counter!

mathman

Well-Known Member
#21
Real life practice makes perfect...

MeWin$ said:
Ok, do your thing, and hopefully youll win.

How about just playing with 5 dollar units for a month or so?

We all think we're perfect players but we arent and i know i made many mistakes starting out so maybe others did too.

Good luck :)
He's right. You should start by playing the smallest stakes you can until your game is perfect. What you do after that is up to you....JtMM:cool:
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sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#22
aslan said:
You may answer that yourself, if and when that 28% chance of ruin occurs.

If all that counters wanted was the best of it, they would settle for a 51% chance of doubling their bankroll. Truth is, counters want as near to a sure thing as possible, at least, in terms of the long run. Counters do not fancy themselves as gamblers, although they know that on an individual session by session basis, they are gambling. But being true to their principles, and never deviating from sound card counting practices, they have every reason to believe that in the long run they will emerge victorious.

Your propensity for risk-taking, OTOH, seems indicative of a gambler bent on taking the world by storm or going down in flames--and in either case, isn't it the action, the glamor, the glory of it all? Classic gambling addiction. If your initial judgment as you enter the arena of card counting will be to cast aside recommended RoR guidelines, then you can be sure that as time goes on, having gotten away with it a few times perhaps, just one of these times in your career that 28% will catch up with you and you will find yourself sans bankroll repeating to yourself over and over, "Why did I not listen?" If you think that in the future, when you have augmented your bankroll, you will revert to recommended RoR guidelines, think again--you won't, and you know it. If you can't do it now when you have everything to lose, now when you are not in the heat of battle and cool, sound decision making is easiest, you will not do it later when you have only experienced success doing it the wrong way. You will have trained yourself to go for it. But for card counters, reliance is on mathematical formulation, not anecdotal evidence.

PS--And just starting out, you can be fairly sure that that 28% RoR is really much larger due to the inexperience factor. It presumes perfect basic strategy combined with perfect card counting implementation, including game selection, following prescribed bet spreads, and highly disciplined application of all card counting principles to a T. No steaming, no catch up tactics, no deviations--just boring, methodical application in a cool and collected manner. Boy, have you got a lot to learn. Me, I'm still learning.
i'm coming up where he has a ROR ~13.5%.
how are you getting 28% ? :confused:
 

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Machinist

Well-Known Member
#23
Where have i heard this kind of talk before??? Hmmmmmmmmmm I know of a Rabbit that was pretty hot to play.......But he didnt have ten grand........
I know he had a grand to go gamble with ... a bunch of us tried to talk him out of it ...never did hear wether he won or not..

HEy buddy ya got the " FEVER".....Take a breath, step back, its ten grand your talkin about !!!! We all can tell from your post that ten grand is a huge amount of money to you...
So you have ten grand now,,, and say you double it to 20 G......Then what????? You gonna be happy???? At 20G will you still gamble it ?? Double it again to 40G...Will you gamble that too? Is 80 enough??
So what is the point of money in your life??? Most of us find the answer to that question down the road in life....some early on the road.....some much much later...
BoJack's point of "not a get rich scheme"... take heed my friend....
But we all can see you have made your mind up in your youthfulness.......sooooooooo...let the adrenline flowwwwww:laugh:

Machinist
 
#24
sagefr0g said:
i'm coming up where he has a ROR ~13.5%.
how are you getting 28% ? :confused:
Wow only 13.5% now we're talking. I'm going to cut off playing as soon as I reach 7K. I think that's a good number for me, doesn't give me too much risk (well way to much by your guys standards but anyways) and if I get the 7K I'll be 100% debt free and ready to truly hit the casinos! Hopefully I'll hit that before going bankrupt and them I'm going to hold off for a while until I have like 20-30K and I can seriously hit the tables. :grin:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#25
sagefr0g said:
i'm coming up where he has a ROR ~13.5%.
how are you getting 28% ? :confused:
Skidepper said:
Haha well tell me if these results mean anything. Using the ROR calculator from qfit.com it says I have a 72.13% chance to succeed in doubling my 10K. This is based on my units being $37.5 (half $25 unit play and half $50 play). I calculated my win per 100 hands to be 2.11 units, std. dev. per 100 hands to be 26.08 units. with a 10K bankroll/37.5 that is 266 unit bankroll with a goal of 532 units. So if I get in 15000 hands on the year it gives me 72.13% chance of success.

These numbers sound pretty accurate to me and I would take a 70+% chance at doubling my bankroll. Am I crazy?:grin:
I'm not doing any analysis of my own, just relying on his result from running Qfit's RoR calculator. He said he came up with a 72.13% chance of doubling his bankroll. I assumed he was saying he calculated he had a ~28% chance of going bust before he doubled.
 
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aslan

Well-Known Member
#26
Machinist said:
Where have i heard this kind of talk before??? Hmmmmmmmmmm I know of a Rabbit that was pretty hot to play.......But he didnt have ten grand........
I know he had a grand to go gamble with ... a bunch of us tried to talk him out of it ...never did hear wether he won or not..

HEy buddy ya got the " FEVER".....Take a breath, step back, its ten grand your talkin about !!!! We all can tell from your post that ten grand is a huge amount of money to you...
So you have ten grand now,,, and say you double it to 20 G......Then what????? You gonna be happy???? At 20G will you still gamble it ?? Double it again to 40G...Will you gamble that too? Is 80 enough??
So what is the point of money in your life??? Most of us find the answer to that question down the road in life....some early on the road.....some much much later...
BoJack's point of "not a get rich scheme"... take heed my friend....
But we all can see you have made your mind up in your youthfulness.......sooooooooo...let the adrenline flowwwwww:laugh:

Machinist
...and the cash...
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#27
Skidepper said:
Wow only 13.5% now we're talking. I'm going to cut off playing as soon as I reach 7K. I think that's a good number for me, doesn't give me too much risk (well way to much by your guys standards but anyways) and if I get the 7K I'll be 100% debt free and ready to truly hit the casinos! Hopefully I'll hit that before going bankrupt and them I'm going to hold off for a while until I have like 20-30K and I can seriously hit the tables. :grin:
it's your money you can lose it anyway you want.
just don't go by my ROR figures, figure it out for your self, would be my advice. i'm not even sure i'm correct on that ROR figure.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#28
aslan said:
I'm not doing any analysis of my own, just relying on his result from running Qfit's RoR calculator. He said he came up with a 72.13% chance of doubling his bankroll. I assumed he was saying he calculated he had a ~28% chance of going bust before he doubled.
ahhh ok.
i dunno, but i think he used a goal calculator, errhh double barrier i think it's called, where you input the winrate, standard deviation for some goal over some amount of time or hands played. so, i think it would be ~28% chance of not reaching the goal, like i guess coming in under the desired goal by the allotted number of hands played sorta thing. i guess that could be busted out or worse but not necessarily, could be between the original bankroll and the goal amount, sorta thing.
but that image i showed is a ROR calculator, to where when you put in the winrate, standard deviation and desired goal over some amount hands played the result is the risk of ruin.
 

beating vegas

Well-Known Member
#29
mathman said:
He's right. You should start by playing the smallest stakes you can until your game is perfect. What you do after that is up to you....JtMM:cool:
.
start small and keep buliding rome wasnt built in one day besides get in alot of low stakes for real world practice
 

bigplayer

Well-Known Member
#30
Skidepper said:
I might be able to get another 10K in a year or so if I'm lucky. Pretty much though I'll need like 30-40K for this type of play? This is just a major bummer because I know I have the skills to do it if only I had the $$$$$$$

-Skidep
A $10,000 starting bankroll can work for poker, but not very well for blackjack unless you have some good $5 or $10 minimum single deck or double deck games around. For the games you describe playing 2hrs a week you will have a 90% chance of being at break-even or ahead in about a decade.

You should hold onto your money and constantly look for a promotion or some other higher edge play to become available or very carefully learn to play poker where the variance is much lower. Once you build up your bankroll blackjack is actually a very complimentary game with poker as part of an overall business strategy.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#31
sagefr0g said:
ahhh ok.
i dunno, but i think he used a goal calculator, errhh double barrier i think it's called, where you input the winrate, standard deviation for some goal over some amount of time or hands played. so, i think it would be ~28% chance of not reaching the goal, like i guess coming in under the desired goal by the allotted number of hands played sorta thing. i guess that could be busted out or worse but not necessarily, could be between the original bankroll and the goal amount, sorta thing.
but that image i showed is a ROR calculator, to where when you put in the winrate, standard deviation and desired goal over some amount hands played the result is the risk of ruin.
I thought that's what you were doing, and not knowing what he did, or really what his inputs were, I'll trust your calculation, unless he can clarify what he did, and whether the figures he gave are from that calculation, or somewhere else. If they are from his RoR calculation, something is rotten in Denmark, because it has to work the same in both directions, right? When he said RoR calculator I suppose he may have meant something else as you suggest.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#33
bjcardcounter said:
Why not you suggest a 5 million br for a 50 min game.
I'll tell you why. For a 2 deck game, a bankroll of 1,000 units brings my RoR down to about 1/2%. Yes, I could go with half that, but my RoR goes to 5%, which many might consider reasonable, but not if one's bankroll is unreplenishable, unless you can live with a 5% chance of going entirely out of business. 5 million, OTOH, does not do anything appreciably to lower my RoR, since I am already at 1/2%, so it becomes the law of diminishing returns.
 
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