supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
How much money should I save up before I move to Vegas to go pro, taking into account the cost of living, unexpected expenses, ect.?
bankroll
- Thread starter supercoolmancool
- Start date
Offhand,if you are not planning on working,I'd suggest a minimum of six months expenses-rent,food,transportation,ect,ect.That would be about $5,000.Then whatever your BR is.I'd think that would be a minimum of $15,000.
But if you were to go with a plan to work part-time and apply money towards your expenses,you might get away with about $18,000 in total.But you'd have no saftey net.
But if you were to go with a plan to work part-time and apply money towards your expenses,you might get away with about $18,000 in total.But you'd have no saftey net.
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
Thanks. That sounds like incredible advice. Is it safe to say that everyone agrees with Shadroch?
ihate17
Well-Known Member
Sounds way too low to me.
$5,000 for 6 month's expenses? You might be able to get most of your meals comped, but do a web check on rents in Vegas and of course you will need a car to go from casino to casino because as a pro, staying in one place too long can be dangerous. The nice thing about Vegas is that there are so many casinos but in your case auto expenses must be figured in. Taking from your bankroll to pay your bills will not help you reach your goal.
With a $15,000 bankroll, what kind of bet spread and what kind of max bet are you figuring on? Have you run a computer sim showing how much your expected win per hour will be and how many hours do you plan to play per week or month? I honestly do not think that you can expect to make an average of over $1,000 per month unless you take a high risk on your bankroll and or play a huge amount of hours.
Do you have a plan B in case you run into negative variance early on? In other words a job lined up. A job will cut into your play hours but will also cover some of your overhead and perhaps make your bankroll replentisable.
ihate17
$5,000 for 6 month's expenses? You might be able to get most of your meals comped, but do a web check on rents in Vegas and of course you will need a car to go from casino to casino because as a pro, staying in one place too long can be dangerous. The nice thing about Vegas is that there are so many casinos but in your case auto expenses must be figured in. Taking from your bankroll to pay your bills will not help you reach your goal.
With a $15,000 bankroll, what kind of bet spread and what kind of max bet are you figuring on? Have you run a computer sim showing how much your expected win per hour will be and how many hours do you plan to play per week or month? I honestly do not think that you can expect to make an average of over $1,000 per month unless you take a high risk on your bankroll and or play a huge amount of hours.
Do you have a plan B in case you run into negative variance early on? In other words a job lined up. A job will cut into your play hours but will also cover some of your overhead and perhaps make your bankroll replentisable.
ihate17
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
There are plenty of $500 apartments and I would be sharing it with a roomate so that's like $250 per month. That's $1500 for rent for 6 months. That leaves $3500 for transportation costs. that should cover it.
With a $15,000 bankroll I would be making a lot per hour. I don't know how much because it would depend on the game. I could probably afford 2 hands of $100 for a max bet. If my EV was only $25 per hour than I would only have to work 40 hours per month to average $1000 per month. My EV will be higher and I will play more hours. If I ran into negative variance I would resize my bet. If didn't have enough money to survive then I would just move back home with my parents.
Does this sound like a good idea to anyone?
What do I need to do to make this dream a reality?
With a $15,000 bankroll I would be making a lot per hour. I don't know how much because it would depend on the game. I could probably afford 2 hands of $100 for a max bet. If my EV was only $25 per hour than I would only have to work 40 hours per month to average $1000 per month. My EV will be higher and I will play more hours. If I ran into negative variance I would resize my bet. If didn't have enough money to survive then I would just move back home with my parents.
Does this sound like a good idea to anyone?
What do I need to do to make this dream a reality?
Last edited:
Have u ever counted a deck in your life?
"probably".. "depends on the game" resizing after negative variance. Way too vague.
You better pick a game, a count system, and a defined betting ramp for starters.
Not that a $15K roll wouldn't be fine but, I don't know, you make me nervous.
Don't sign a 1 year lease on an apt. Hope your parents take you back.
Some darn good cover! They will be quick to give you the boot. I was unprepared for my first trip to Vegas and as a result was backed-off from 4 casinos, 3 within 20 mins. The 4th back-off was extended to a sister property, I was told I couldn't play even though I was just sitting at a table watching a friend play.
I'm building a new experimental apparatus for testing interactions between the materials we make and different gasses. In the planning stages of the apparatus, my boss said "measure out all of the tubing you'll need and buy three times that amount." Turns out I used between 2 and 3 times what I thought needed due to mistakes, last minute changes, etc, so that was perfect.
I feel the same lesson could apply here.
I feel the same lesson could apply here.
supercoolmancool
Well-Known Member
I have about 40 hours of counting experience with KO.
Those kinds of things you have to deal with when they come up. I've never been to Vegas so I don't really know exactly what they got. I really plan on having just a $100 max bet and then I'll decide about wonging, spreading, units ect on the fly in game. That's the only way. You have to react to those things and not plan ahead. I'm flexible. Ready for anything.
Those things are too random. I plan to use KO for counting and Hi Lo for advanced techniques. I hardly plan on counting at all. Since I'll live in Vegas I can bet on sports too. I'm really a jack of all trades. I'm really good at everything.
Everything I touch turns to gold. I guess I don't need to prove myself here but hey I'm the real deal if there ever was one.
I'm prepared for cover. They will never catch me. They have no chance. Cover was my original fear. That was the only thing that stopped me from being pro other than being under 21. But cover is no longer a concern. I've eliminated it.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
SCMC, I'm not sure how to take your response. I mean, it was funny, but how intentionally? Also, you got 86'd from that one joint in Cowlick or wherever, right? What did you learn from that?
Jeff, care to share what went wrong in your backoffs? 20 minutes is... pretty damn awesome. I've only managed to cut it down to 40 minutes so far, and that was when I was moving my lips while counting.
Anyway, if I was going to turn pro, I'd want to a) get a lot better at my skills, and b) have $20-$25000 bankroll. Of course, I'm older and kind of risk-averse, and I wouldn't want to share a $500 apartment (if Vegas prices are anything like CA prices, that would be a crackhouse).
But hey, $15000, working car, and willingness to live like an ascetic monk, are probably the minumum to give it a shot. Parents to back you up is a good idea.
Since risk of ruin would take a more literal meaning with this endeavor, you really want to have a firmer idea of what you're running into, and have a known gameplan in advance. Especially know your betting limits before you go into a store, and stick to them in a disciplined fashion. Sure, you can adapt after each session, but every time I go into a casino planning on "winging it", I do something stupid that costs me money.
Jeff, care to share what went wrong in your backoffs? 20 minutes is... pretty damn awesome. I've only managed to cut it down to 40 minutes so far, and that was when I was moving my lips while counting.
Anyway, if I was going to turn pro, I'd want to a) get a lot better at my skills, and b) have $20-$25000 bankroll. Of course, I'm older and kind of risk-averse, and I wouldn't want to share a $500 apartment (if Vegas prices are anything like CA prices, that would be a crackhouse).
But hey, $15000, working car, and willingness to live like an ascetic monk, are probably the minumum to give it a shot. Parents to back you up is a good idea.
Since risk of ruin would take a more literal meaning with this endeavor, you really want to have a firmer idea of what you're running into, and have a known gameplan in advance. Especially know your betting limits before you go into a store, and stick to them in a disciplined fashion. Sure, you can adapt after each session, but every time I go into a casino planning on "winging it", I do something stupid that costs me money.
Funny you should say that. When I first started managing projects, my boss told be to estimate time and and/or for each task, and then triple it for my plan. He was often proved wrong. Sometimes it would be 4/5 times what I thought,
Yea, it probably applies here unless you are EXTREMELY good budgeting your money (living costs, not BR) and even then be prepared to cut costs if you go over budget in any month.
i think the pros will disagree, but i say go for it. this is what life is about, taking chances. you seem to have things worked out quite well, and seem to be prepared for a hard life. gambling long hours, mental fatigue of the roller coaster life that is gambling, etc.
you have a backup of going back to your parents house so its not like you're gonna be a bum if you hit negative variance.
since you're making this your career, i hope you plan on going much further than KO, shuffletracking, cut card....... you shld be pulling every trick in the book, use the time you have now to hone these skillz.
i think when push comes to shove, there'll come a point where you'll realize that you're actually playing for your next meal and you're learning curve will be sharper than ever before you'll learn what it takes to survive and you'll pull through.
Last edited:
Automatic Monkey
Banned
It sounds like a terrible idea. You will need a lot of experience, and I don't mean just in blackjack. Vegas is a predatory environment and a young guy like you will find yourself giving bocchino Downtown for your living expenses should you run into the wrong people.
You will need a job, and you should have a job arranged before you even go down there. Now one good thing about Vegas is it is a weekend destination, and a weekend job as a barback or waiter should be really easy to find. And it just so happens the weekends are too busy for a low-stakes counter to really do his thing, so a weekend job plus weekday AP is a good fit.
You will also need a business plan. I assume you already subscribe to CBJN. Why don't you decide which games you are going to play, at what stakes and spread, how much risk of ruin you are willing to accept, then run your simulations to tell us what your win rate is expected to be.
What am I getting at here? If you are ready for full-time AP, you shouldn't have to ask anyone what you will need to do. I'm not trying to put you down or anything like that, just to let you know I have also run the numbers and come to my conclusions. The trick about ruin calculations and necessary bankroll is what happens when you draw your living expenses from your bankroll. Normal RoR calculations assume 100% of your winnings are going back into your BR. When they don't, your RoR increases dramatically. In other words, you will need one holy hell of a lot more than $15K for a bankroll even with a part-time job to get your RoR down to a reasonable level at at the same time pay for living expenses in the newly sprawling and booming metropolis of Las Vegas. Have you ever seen where a $500/mo apartment in Las Vegas is? You'll be terrified.
I wouldn't lie to you man, not about this. Get yourself a good solid means of support, fly to Vegas (or Marquette) to play BJ to fund the little extras in life for a few years, then come back and say you want to play blackjack full time.
ihate17
Well-Known Member
Because you are young and go back home
I am also guessing that there is no one else dependent upon your income, in other words you are only responsible for yourself.
Your risk of ruin will be pretty high but if you can avoid negative variance for a while, you might just make it.
The $500 per month apartments are probably in parts of town most of us would not want to live in but you are young and probably only going to sleep there.
The thing is, if you blow the money you still have your parents home to go back to and rebuild your bankroll while you learn more and you just might learn a lot on your own both good and bad.
The other thing is you are 21. At 21 you can fall on your financial face and still have all the time in the world to make it up. Those of us, two or three times your age, have probably done this when younger but look at things differently now.
As far as how much you should make per hour, check out this site and run a sim.
qfit.com/cvstrat.htm
ihate17
I am also guessing that there is no one else dependent upon your income, in other words you are only responsible for yourself.
Your risk of ruin will be pretty high but if you can avoid negative variance for a while, you might just make it.
The $500 per month apartments are probably in parts of town most of us would not want to live in but you are young and probably only going to sleep there.
The thing is, if you blow the money you still have your parents home to go back to and rebuild your bankroll while you learn more and you just might learn a lot on your own both good and bad.
The other thing is you are 21. At 21 you can fall on your financial face and still have all the time in the world to make it up. Those of us, two or three times your age, have probably done this when younger but look at things differently now.
As far as how much you should make per hour, check out this site and run a sim.
qfit.com/cvstrat.htm
ihate17
With the housing market in the tubes in Vegas,it is not that hard to share a three bedroom house in a nice section for about $400.Problem is you then need a car. Public transportation sucks and you don't want to be taking a bus with a decent BR.
As far as jobs go,you can't get a casino job until you are out there and have an address and a phone. At least thats my understanding.Jobs are plentiful out there. Some pay real well-$40 an hour for beginner house framers,some don't-$6.15 for 7-11 clerks.
If you go to Vegas with $20,000 and try to make it as a BJ pro,you have a very good chance of failure. But if it is your dream,go for it.You most likely won't get another chance when you are married and have responsabilities.
Just don't burn your bridges behind you,and don't finance your BR with cash advances. And you just might actually make it.
As far as jobs go,you can't get a casino job until you are out there and have an address and a phone. At least thats my understanding.Jobs are plentiful out there. Some pay real well-$40 an hour for beginner house framers,some don't-$6.15 for 7-11 clerks.
If you go to Vegas with $20,000 and try to make it as a BJ pro,you have a very good chance of failure. But if it is your dream,go for it.You most likely won't get another chance when you are married and have responsabilities.
Just don't burn your bridges behind you,and don't finance your BR with cash advances. And you just might actually make it.
I'm very curious about that... care to share?
Make it a 10K bankroll because that's fine if you know what to do with it. And save yourself $5K
Strongly suggest touching something else and turning it into gold.
Good luck to you buddy - boy I fear ur going to need it. And thanks for making me laugh out loud. But really I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Jeff, care to share what went wrong in your backoffs? 20 minutes is... pretty damn awesome. I've only managed to cut it down to 40 minutes so far, and that was when I was moving my lips while counting.
I made quite a few mistakes...
1) Where im from there is no next to no heat so there is no need for cover. When I played in Vegas I was totally unprepared for the heat and used no cover.
2) My bet spread was to large, 1-12 or 1-2*8 for DD.
3) I was playing at casinos that were dead. Im sure the pit had nothing better to do then watch me.
4) I played for to long to try and make up a loss.
ChefJJ
Well-Known Member
I'd budget quite a bit more for living expenses...Shadroch put you down for $5000 in the 6 month period. That seems reasonable, but I'd be a bit more cautious and say at least $1K/month. You don't have insurance, and I'm sure you want to be able to pay for utilities...water, electric, cable, internet, etc. are all pretty nice to have in 21st century America
(just being a smart-ass).I also like AM's point--have a business plan. You are your own boss, employee, and financial director. You may make your BJ plays on the fly, but have a business plan.
good luck
Last edited: