Bet spread

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
#1
I haven't seen much written about bet spreads... What is the minimum needed? The max before you get noticed? How much 8x affects edge from 15X?
 
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MJGolf

Well-Known Member
#2
Not sure what you are asking. Minimum for what? To be positive EV? The max depends upon the tolerance of a particular casino or shift. It varies place to place and sometimes shift to shift. Do you have CVCX?
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#3
"SELF-IMPOSED BET-SPREAD" is unneeded and unhelpful - sometimes even harmful enough to invite "RISK OF RUIN." A card counter only needs to bet according to Kelly criterion, with the ULTIMATE BET-SPREAD set by the TABLE MINIMUM and the TABLE MAXIMUM, not by the artificial SELF-IMPOSED BET SPREADS.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#4
""SELF-IMPOSED BET-SPREAD" is unneeded and unhelpful - sometimes even harmful enough to invite "RISK OF RUIN." A card counter only needs to bet according to Kelly criterion, with the ULTIMATE BET-SPREAD set by the TABLE MINIMUM and the TABLE MAXIMUM, not by the artificial SELF-IMPOSED BET SPREADS."


moraine, you have a lot to learn. If your objective is to quickly burn out the joint for yourself as quickly as you can then I guess you have the right approach. Better be prepared to travel a lot.
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#5
There may be some beneficial use of "Self-Imposed" bet spreads in 1 or 2-deck blackjack, but I stand by the point "A card counter only needs to bet according to Kelly criterion" in shoe games. Just lay out your own bet spread against the Kelly bets recommended for hands up to 12 Hi-Lo TC
(or any higher TC you have experienced in shoe games). You may learn something you did not expect.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#6
I love it when brand-new members come here and tell lifelong members with decades of experience what they don't know. Most new members come here to learn. You appear to be different. Good luck to you. You're going to need it.

Don
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#7
DSchles said:
I love it when brand-new members come here and tell lifelong members with decades of experience what they don't know. Most new members come here to learn. You appear to be different. Good luck to you. You're going to need it.

Don
The substance of the point expressed should count above anything else. "Brand-new members" may have some experience/knowledge to share with "lifelong members with decades of experience" too.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#8
"The substance of the point expressed should count above anything else."

Why would you think I didn't consider the substance of the point? I did. It's very poor advice. If you don't already understand that, you will, soon enough.

Don
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#9
Have you laid out and compared your bet (under your pre-selected bet spread) against the Kelly bet at each Hi-Lo TC? If my earlier advice was poor, please shed light on WHY IT IS POOR. So all readers of this forum will understand the reason. Not just it is against the advices of "lifelong members."
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#10
moraine said:
Have you laid out and compared your bet (under your pre-selected bet spread) against the Kelly bet at each Hi-Lo TC? If my earlier advice was poor, please shed light on WHY IT IS POOR. So all readers of this forum will understand the reason. Not just it is against the advices of "lifelong members."
I've laid out the advice, in case you've missed some of it. It's called BJA3, and it's 536 pages. A bit tough to summarize here. The camouflage chapter is 19 pages long. I'll permit you to have the last word. But understand that you're coming across as a bit naive and/or impertinent.

My last word is: If you make the correct Kelly wager for every hand of blackjack that you play, you will eventually be thrown out of every casino in the world. But what would I know about any of this?

Don
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#11
I agree on the risk of using "correct Kelly wager for every hand", but will also add that the same risk will happen to anyone who only correctly uses a pre-set bet-spread/bet ramp every hand. In sum: A self-imposed bet spread is neither needed, nor helpful in shoe games. A low bet-spread is a recipe for losing shoe games. A high bet-spread -- without considering Kelly criterion -- only invites "RISK OF RUIN."
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#13
Whatever you try to accomplish by card counting, A SELF-IMPOSED BET BREAD WOULD NOT HELP IN SHOE GAMES, EXCEPT HELP SETTING YOURSELF UP AS A LOSER WITH A PREDICTABLE RISK OF RUIN. If you still cannot see the point, Good Luck, Good Luck.
 
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gronbog

Well-Known Member
#14
Not if that bet spread is carefully crafted using software like CVCX. In fact, doing this can easily result in a reduction of RoR from the extremely high ~13.5% which results from betting full Kelly.
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#15
You did not say what will be the ROR with your bet sp. Also, if you truly use Kelly Bet (re-calculate after a loss), the ROR should be ZERO.
 
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gronbog

Well-Known Member
#16
The software will tell you your RoR. One way to do this is to bet a fraction of Kelly. This reduces your RoR exponentially while only reducing your win rate linearly.

I'm hoping you mean to recalculate after every session loss. Surely no one recalculates after every bet lost. If you have a reasonable bankroll, the difference in one bet from the next at the same true count would be negligible. Second, when you do have a significant loss, you really should use the software to recalculate your reduced spread. This what most people would actually do. If you do this, then your RoR will be reduced but will not be zero. I say this because, when RoR gets you, it gets you quickly, meaning that when you bet full Kelly for a session, the risk of losing it all during that session is very real.
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#17
MOSTLY AGREE WITH WHAT YOU SAID. BUT MY POINT IS that a pre-selected bet sp is neither needed nor helpful in shoe games. USING KELLY BET IS BETTER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.
 

The G Man

Active Member
#18
moraine said:
You did not say what will be the ROR with your bet sp. Also, if you truly use Kelly Bet (re-calculate after a loss), the ROR should be ZERO.
First, real Kelly bets are recalculated not only after a loss, but after a win too. Second, it is virtually impossible to recalculate exact Kelly bet after every hand at a BJ table. Third, even if you could do so, you would risk ending up with bastards bets like $27.51 or $214.08 that are impossible to implement in a real casino. Fourth, you could at some points have bets of $0.94 or $1,285,364.58 that will be both impossible to implement due to table limits. This is some reasons why serious BJ players using Kelly bets use what we call some "Kelly fraction" and do not resize so frequently.

Anyway, you have a lot more to learn here from the pros than you can contribute to. I would suggest you to keep a low profile :)
 

moraine

Well-Known Member
#19
RECALCULATE KELLY TO THE EXTENT PRACTICABLE JUST LIKE YOU WILL DO FOR BET SPREADS. I WILL TAKE YOUR OTHER POINTS UNDER ADVISEMENT. BUT I BELIEVE I SHALL SAY NOTHING OR ONLY THE TRUTH. YOU CAN REJECT THIS POINT BUT THIS IS THE MODEL I ALWAYS FOLLOW.
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#20
moraine said:
USING KELLY BET IS BETTER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.
Agree to disagree. See the underlined part of the quote. Everyone should agree that full Kelly gives you the mathematically optimal bankroll growth. What they're trying to tell you is that, despite that, it may not be the best choice under real-life conditions. If you get backed off too many places, you can no longer play. If you can no longer play, your bankroll growth will be zero. But then on the other hand so will your risk of ruin :rolleyes:
 
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