moraine said:

- Terrible Misunderstanding here (which might have been caused by my use of "The player's POSITIVE EXPECTED VALUE" in the formula I gave.
**At Hi-Lo TC +2,** **any player has only about +0.5% EV, NOT +1% EV, under common S17 blackjack rules.** (The card counting player's skill level is irrelevant AS LONG AS THE PLAYER IS USING THE BASIC STRATEGY.)
- One Kelly Bet for a $10,000 bankroll = 0.77 x 0.005 x $10,000 = $38.5 or $35 for convenience (betting less is better than over-betting).
- The 0.77 coefficient takes care of the ordinary "variance" of blackjack games under ordinary blackjack rules.

So where, or maybe more accurately WHEN are you playing that S17 is a

**common** blackjack rule for shoe blackjack games that you are talking about. I see S17, but not at the limits you are speaking of, usually either $50 or 100 minimum.

Next, you are figuring the advantage gained (from the house edge starting point) or IHA, wrong for each TC. You are figuring IHA .5% with a gain of roughly .5% for each TC, which gets you to your +.5% at exactly TC of +2. Problem is the true counts are more like a bucket than exact number and you are not accounting for the higher parts to the bucket.

So lets take your 6 deck game, 1 deck played. Running count +10 = TC +2. What about running count +12, +13, +14? They all fall into the TC +2 betting bucket, but the advantages are greater than .5%. So you have to figure an

**average** advantage for that entire TC +2 bucket and it will be higher than what you are figuring for the lowest point in the bucket (exactly TC +2). In short, you are underestimating your advantage at each TC.

I have a couple more thoughts on your comments on different bet amounts, but I will save that for later. I will just tease that you don't want to have too many different bet amounts for each slightly different advantage. That really is a big give-away. In this day and age, 2021, there is not a whole lot new about HOW to gain an advantage counting cards. That has all been done and laid out for you by people like Don S. The trick today is to get away with it. Just have 4-5 at most, different bet amounts, The most important being max bet and minimum bet.

Edit: Aceside touched on some of what I said about the buckets, while I was typing.