Better System

B

branmuffin

Active Member
Mayor and ZG:
You have dissuaded me from pursuing HOII and AOII as possible systems to improve on Hi-Lo.
If I plan to play mixed games in Biloxi..SD DD and 6D shoes should I just use HiLo w/full set of indicies.
Zen UBZ2 look decent,
Ideally I would like to learn a system that has no ace side-count.I would rather not have to do a TC conversion if possible but dont want to lose too much EV.I dont mind using a 2 level count but dont want to sidecount aces.
Balanced or unbalanced.
Any suggestions...should I just stick with Hi-Lo and learn fab18/full indicies??
I dont want to drop down to KO and lose more EV but 20%+EV gain on most advanced system(versus KO, hilo) is not reasonable for my lack of experience
All the gambling stories on here are great .
When I was a freshman at ArizonaState in 1983 i used to play in vegas alot..I meet I guy there who tried to recruit me to play on a holecard team.He got his ass kicked and that was the end of that.

Everyday this site looks better and better.
Thnx Lee
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
I would say Hi-Lo with I-18 and Fab-4, but, if you are playing a game with insurance, add a few more insurance indices, in partcular 14 vs. 9,T,A, and 13 V. T. Also if you have time, add 8 vs. 5/6 to your I-18. Those extra indices will give your game a real power boost.

Start with that, play it for a while, and then you will see if you want something more, but that is plenty powerful. And remember, decent/good penetration is worth a lot more than any system. Search out the good games, and walk away from the poor ones. Find good penetration (first), then on shoes look for games with surrender (second). Everything else follows.

Thanks for your nice words about this site. I wish I had some artistic skills, everything here is just my hacking it out, experimenting, and wishing for the grace of color combinations that don't hurt my eyes.

-Mayor
 
B

branmuffin

Active Member
Cool.I think I'll do as you initially advised ..stay with HiLo and work on proficient use of indicies.
The book I first used to learn HiLo was Reveres Blackjack As a Business.
If I want to attempt to be a weebit ambitious and learn 50-100 indicies should I use Revere's indicies or something newer? Wong CV Simulations etc.
It seems Reveres books have gotten mixed reviews and i know they are dated ..

regards Lee

Hey Mayor...ever head up to Jalama? ..thats gotta be the most amazing drive from highway 1 to Jalama state Beach..absolutely beautiful.Lucky you ..great area to live in.
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
For good Hi-Lo indices, you can't do better than Wong's PBJ. I've posted a few on this site as well.

I have never been to Jalama? Where is that? Of course, I get to drive up HW 1 all the time. My favorite stop along the way is the giant Sea Lion refuge, right by Hearst's Castle.

Keep us up to date on your adventures.

--Mayor
 
B

branmuffin

Active Member
Mayor:
JalamaBeach is a state park/beach popular with windsurfers and surfers just north of point conception..the demarcation of central/southern coastal california..The Park isnt much but the long ride out to the beach from 101 is spectacular ..rolling golden hills..amazing.It may not be your cup of tea but I have a real wanderlust in me and was amazed by it.

Paste this url for directions only 62 miles:

http://maps.yahoo.com/py/ddResults.py?Pyt=Tmap&tarname=&tardesc=&osd=&newname=&newdesc=&dsd=&newHash=&newTHash=&newErr=&newTErr=&newFL=Use+Address+Below&newaddr=&newcsz=Santa+Barbara%2CCA&newcountry=us&newTFL=Use+Address+Below&newtaddr=&newtcsz=Jalama%2CCA&newtcountry=us&Submit=Get+Directions

Lee
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: Better System -UBZ and R7

>>Ideally I would like to learn a system that has no ace side-count.I would rather not have to do a TC conversion if possible but dont want to lose too much EV.I dont mind using a 2 level count but dont want to sidecount aces.<<
-----------

I see the UBZ2 as being one of the finest choices available, and it fits the description of your preferrence - IMO pursuant to the poor Ace-sidecount methodology utilized by most practioners of AO2 and HO2 and the like, as previously recognized, UBZ will perform on par with the harder to employ Aceneutral variety level2, and with the added ease of no TCadjustment! You can also eventually add a TCadjustment "TUBZ2" and achieve a slight imporvement over even TC'd ZEN.

Another easier approach might be for you to switch to Red7 - eventually you can count all 7s +.5 and use an adjusted IRC/starting-deck - then finally add a TCadjustment and 50 or so i#, the end product being a hybred level2 TC'd UB'd system that will perform on par with ZEN and (for most) HO2. In other words, RED7 is the one system tag-set where you can advance from the simplest RC level1 to the hybred level2 "Halve7s" as I call it, without changing counts.

For what its worth, returning to the UBZ, GeoC the developer of that system actually plays his own light version of ZEN wherein 40 or so i# are radically rounded to gradients of 0-5-10 (like the Mayor's Halves, though still TC'd zg
 
B

branmuffin

Active Member
Assorted BJ Questions

thnx zg
I think I am going to go with HiLo full indicies ..at least 50-100
HiLo is second nature and I dont have a problem with TC conversion but it isnt easy ..the half decks slow me down .Is it possible to round off TC conversions w/HiLo full in 4D and 6D to full decks rather than half decks????

I looked at full indicies of HiLo ..there has gotta be 200 at least.I think i will try to filter out those that are only between TC= -10 and +10 .
One thing that strikes me when I study BJ further is the amazingly high variance.The bankroll requirements seem huge..It seems to me you need a minimum BR of at least 500 avg.bets to avoid ROR.(assuming 90-95% ofROR).
To make a decent hourly rate you gotta risk alot of cheese..This is unlike poker.There seems to be much higher risk in playing BJ professionally.

Hypothetically If I decide to play in games where on average I have a .50%-1.00% edge..good SD DD(rare to find good ones ..penetration is crap) and 6D games and moderate cover(1-4 bet spread in SD 1-6 DD and 1-12 in 6D) and I want to test a small BR of 5K-10K I guess this type of BR will yield very little in hourly earn.Is that right??Like a measly 5 bucks an hour

I am very conservative and know gambling for a living is possible despite what all the naysayers say.I did it for 4 years playin poker and I still play poker.
Bankroll is everything.. Units are everything ..and foremost EV is everything.You gotta have the best of it.But most important of all is grinding out an edge at limits where you are comfortable ..in other words ..being a pussy.That worked for me .No heroics .
Zg When you play bigbet BJ are you playing with the BR or are you hailmarrying it.
I assume not with your statistical bent.
All feedback is helpful.
I think i will attempt a test BR of 10K 1 unit equaling $10.00 average bet around $25.00 ...is that reasonable?
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Re: Assorted BJ Questions

>Is it possible to round off TC conversions w/HiLo full in 4D and 6D to full decks rather than half decks????

Sure, you don't have to do 1/2 decks at all to play a strong game, but towards the end of the shoe you might do a bit of it.

>I looked at full indicies of HiLo ..there has gotta be 200 at least.I think i will try to filter out those that are only between TC= -10 and +10 .

Remember, the negative indices are only used with a min bet out, so are not worth very much. It is MUCH better to learn the positive indices than the negative ones. A range like -3 to 20 will be much stronger for you.

>One thing that strikes me when I study BJ further is the amazingly high variance.The bankroll requirements seem huge..It seems to me you need a minimum BR of at least 500 avg.bets to avoid ROR.(assuming 90-95% ofROR).
To make a decent hourly rate you gotta risk alot of cheese..This is unlike poker.There seems to be much higher risk in playing BJ professionally.

Two words: variance sucks.

>Hypothetically If I decide to play in games where on average I have a .50%-1.00% edge..good SD DD(rare to find good ones ..penetration is crap) and 6D games and moderate cover(1-4 bet spread in SD 1-6 DD and 1-12 in 6D) and I want to test a small BR of 5K-10K I guess this type of BR will yield very little in hourly earn.Is that right??Like a measly 5 bucks an hour

With a 10K BR, and a reasonable Risk-of-ruin of about 5% you can easily earn $30 per hour. With a 5K BR and a low ROR of 1%, you are making minimum wage.

>I think i will attempt a test BR of 10K 1 unit equaling $10.00 average bet around $25.00 ...is that reasonable?

A 10K BR and a 2% ROR, roughly, your bets should go from $10 to 2x$75. Spreading to 2 hands is critically important. But, your bet range depends on the QUALITY of the games you find, the better the game, the larger your max bet.

--Mayor
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: Assorted BJ Questions

**My responses are embedded -

I think I am going to go with HiLo full indicies ..at least 50-100
HiLo is second nature and I dont have a problem with TC conversion but it isnt easy ..the half decks slow me down .Is it possible to round off TC conversions w/HiLo full in 4D and 6D to full decks rather than half decks????

**Are you using a 1/2D or 1D TC calibration? Nevertheless, if TC isn't easy than discard it altogether and use R7 or UBZ.

I looked at full indicies of HiLo ..there has gotta be 200 at least.I think i will try to filter out those that are only between TC= -10 and +10 .

** -4 to +10 is more reasonable.

One thing that strikes me when I study BJ further is the amazingly high variance.The bankroll requirements seem huge..It seems to me you need a minimum BR of at least 500 avg.bets to avoid ROR.(assuming 90-95% ofROR).

** 500-1000 min-bets (units or 'u') is reasonably comfortable, depending on the game conditions and betting technique. Further, you don't need to have it "all at once" - it can be an "installment plan" if you will.

To make a decent hourly rate you gotta risk alot of cheese..This is unlike poker.There seems to be much higher risk in playing BJ professionally.

**On the contrary, the little bit that I know about poker suggests that BJ entails LESS RISK and LESS BR.

Hypothetically If I decide to play in games where on average I have a .50%-1.00% edge..good SD DD(rare to find good ones ..penetration is crap) and 6D games and moderate cover(1-4 bet spread in SD 1-6 DD and 1-12 in 6D) and I want to test a small BR of 5K-10K I guess this type of BR will yield very little in hourly earn.Is that right??Like a measly 5 bucks an hour

**More like $15-75/hr (100hands), but more analysis of the exact nature of each game is required to suggest an optimum approach for each.

When you play bigbet BJ are you playing with the BR or are you hailmarrying it.

**When I am in the higher stakes mode, its usually a reflection of a an interim "joint-bank"(JB) arrangement - typical JB arrangements involve 2-5 counters each holding $5-10k

I think i will attempt a test BR of 10K 1 unit equaling $10.00 average bet around $25.00 ...is that reasonable?

**Yes, with a top bet of $100 or 2x$75 or 3x$60 - your min bets would be -
1D $25 (good)
1D $15 (mediocre)
2D $10
6D $05 (play-all)
6D $10 (wong)

**As you can see, your topBet is consistent and your min bet is adjusted to create the req.spread. zg
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: Assorted BJ Questions

>> A 10K BR and a 2% ROR, roughly, your bets should go from $10 to 2x$75. Spreading to 2 hands is critically important. <<
--------------------

I agree with the spread BUT NOT with the "critical importance" of spreading to 2hands - the #hands played during +counts is a function of how many others are at the table, as well as other factors - the correct topBet could be 1X$100, 2X$75, or 3X$60, dependent on the other factors.

exampleA- heads-up/2D, the ideal topBet is 1X$100 except for the last round, which then could be the 2-3hand variety.

exampleB- wong shoe 3 other spots in play, the ideal topBet is 3x$60

etc. zg
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Re: Assorted BJ Questions

Spreading to two hands increases EV much more than it increases SD, and thus significantly increases your SCORE (see Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, 2nd ED). In shoes, your score may go up by as much as 20% by spreading to 2 hands. In this case it is of fundamental importance to your long term EV to play 2 hands.

Spreading to multiple hands in pitch games is much more a function of the number of rounds, and penetration, wanting to encourage the dealer to get as deep into the deck as possible. Card eating also comes into play, increasing your HPR (hands per hour). The question of "to spread or not" is much more subtle in this case.

--Mayor
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Re: Assorted BJ Questions

I do not recall seeing this chart in BJA-2nd.

This comment (about mutliple hands in shoe games and the score) was based on work of MathProf at bj21.com in a series of articles called "Scoring the Shoe" which are now in the Green Chip archives at bj21.

Here is a very small tidbit from that post, where you are playing a full bet on 1 spot versus 70% on two spots, giving the SCORE when you Wong in.

Wong: Play 1 spot only 63
Wong: Play 2 spots only 88

He goes on to extensively analyze a number of other scenarios, all of which show the power of 2 hands in Shoes. I am sorry, but I cannot quote this further without the author's permission.

--Mayor
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
#hands to play?

I think that the MP SCORING SHOE series, which may also be found at the CCCafe w/o the price of admission, assumed 2-3 other spots in play - the chart in BJA1 shows that, heads-up, for example, the EV is higher for 1-hand play, with 2 other spots in play the EV is higher for 3-hand play, etc.

Part of my camo is the oscillation between playing multi-hands in -counts w/ 1hand in +counts, and then 1hand in -counts and multi-hands in +counts - mixing it up as its called - BUT there is always an optimum #hands to play per round tied to the # of other spots occupied, %pene, and proximity to last-round.
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
complexity

Yes, it is a complicated subject, and without going in to all the details here, I would like to ask you to donate the URL to those MathProf articles on CCC, so I can link directly to them from this site.

Thanks for your continuing contributions at a very high level.

--Mayor
 
K

kansas

Member
why there is a disagreement

The BJA optimal number of hands to play question is with other players at the table. How to optimize EV and improve your chances of getting the good cards when others are at the table.

I think the mayor's advice was more of a spread to multiple hands to reduce variance type approach, considering the original posters bankroll and wanting to play to a very low ROR.

Sometimes it might be wise to spread to multiple hands, and sacrifice some EV, to obtain lower variance (or eat cards in negative counts, or get deeper into a deck before a shuffle, etc.)

The BJA study was just considering number of rounds/EV/other players.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: why there is a disagreement

YES, you've clarified the original intent of this thread... and I do use 2hand bets for variance reduction, similar to using pontoons to stabilize a boat. zg
 
C

CanKen

Well-Known Member
Hi Mayor:

The answer to this may be obvious, but I am a little confused by your reply to "branmuffin". You suggest adding more insurance indices. Is this what you meant, or was it meant to read surrender indices?
That's an interesting thread for someone like me.
Thanks.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: #hands to play?

BJA2 Page 29 (how many top-bets)-
Alone, one hand
1-2 others, two hands
3-4 others, three hands
 
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