I am new to the forum and have a bankroll problem I need some help with. I have just started playing 2 deck bj with a house edge of .39% and do not count cards, just play basic stratagy. My starting bankroll is $1000 and I am making $10 flat bets. I am recieving $160 per month in bounceback cash left over from my former video poker play and am adding this to my bankroll. I plan to play about 4 hours a week which comes to about 1000 hands a month and would like to keep my ongoing risk of ruin below 1%. Eventually I want to be playing at $25 a hand, the amount of action needed to regain the level of perks I once enjoyed playing video poker. I know that I am playing at an advantage with my bounceback far outweighing the small house edge and that there is very little volatility in blackjack, especially with flat betting. My question is at what points, as my bankroll grows, should I feel safe in moving up to $15, $20 and $25 bets respectively? Any help from you math guys out there would be greatly appreciated!
BJ Risk of Ruin
- Thread starter vpearlkc
- Start date
I need the "math guys" to answer this one with precision, but what appears to me is that with the flat bets your +EV is about $120 per month. The problem is that as you raise your bet size you reduce your monthly expection and increase the fluctuation, which is unavaoidable since you don't count and the $160 cash monthly supplement is fixed. So from my point of view it would be best not to increase beyond the $10 bet. Anyone else? zg
I don't really want to stay with $10 bets because the perks which start to kick in at the $25 bet level would more then make up for a $60 monthly loss in EV. For example 10th row tickets to a B B King show and fine dinner before the show, value $150, possible with $25 bets, no chance with $10 bets.There is also the real possibility that the $160 a month in bounceback gained through $2000 per hour in video poker play will end eventually without some equivalent BJ action. You may ask why not stick with VP? Three reasons. 1, the VP inventory at my home casino has been downgraded to unplayable levels. 2, BJ can be played with a .5% or less house edge at any casino in the world. Try finding a decent VP game on a cruise ship! 3, Blackjack is fun. I enjoy the social interaction, except when a steamer sits in, more than staring at a video screen. Why not just start playing at $25 a hand and hope for the best? I don't want to go into my own pocket after a couple of bad sessions. This bankroll has kept me in action for allmost three years and I have even taken some profits from time to time. I realize that with no cash rebate on BJ play my days of taking profits may be over but who knows, maybe eventually as I grow more comfortable with the game and my bankroll grows, I may even learn to count cards.
Ok, I understand now that its a comp play. I cannot answer your RoR question, but what you need to do is study up on the fine points of "comp-counting", and for that you will need to get Max Rubin's Comp City. Comp-counting profits will greatly exceed any profits to be derived from card-counting. zg
If Your Big Bet Is In The %1- %2 Of Your Total Bankroll Then Your Risk Of Ruine Is Slim. Onsce You Get Into The 3-5% Range Your Risk Of Ruine Is Very High. The Exact Answer Dependes On The Number Of Hands You Play. The Standard Deviation(luck Factor)in Bj Is Around 1.1-1.7. So If You Played 100 Hands At $10 You Multipy
10*1.1 So Basically Your Deviation In 100 Hands Is 11 Units. 11*10 Is $110 Then You Add In The House Edge And You Come Up With So Over 100 Hands You Will Be Anywhere From -$121 T0 $99 Ahead 68.9% Of The Time Assuming A $10 Bet.
10*1.1 So Basically Your Deviation In 100 Hands Is 11 Units. 11*10 Is $110 Then You Add In The House Edge And You Come Up With So Over 100 Hands You Will Be Anywhere From -$121 T0 $99 Ahead 68.9% Of The Time Assuming A $10 Bet.