Black Jack or Craps

C

collegebj

Member
#1
#1
My situation is pretty simple, yet its still a hard choice so im in need of some different opinions and advice.

Im a college kid with a small bankroll, i work a hard job 4 days a week and like to go to the casino atleast twice a week. I make enough to devote probably 1.2-2k this summer to my bankroll. That being said, i have for the last six months devoted a substantial amount of time to learning how to count. I consider myself now at the point where i can do it well enough to give myself an edge, however small it may be.

The problem comes at where im located, my local casino(30-40mins) offers only 6d h17ls das. With such a small bankroll, it would be a suicidal high RoR to employ the proper spread to beat this game. So that is where Dice Influencing comes into play. I do believe after all the research i have done recently that it is possible. If you believe that it isnt i love to here your reasoning or facts pertaining to that to sway my mind. From what i can tell, even a very modest ability in DI can allow you to use a small bankroll such as mine to bet very modestly with an edge much bigger then that of bj. I could with some practice, achieve the same edge as i do with blackjack with only 15 or 20 dollars on the felt.

So my question is, do you believe, at least for the time being, that it would be in my better interest to lay my counting aside for craps, where in my opinion i have a much better chance of making money. I could in time get my BR to a point i could have one in line with that of what i would need for blackjack. Any experience you have with DI would also be a grateful help, as i have the basics i believe and am working on setting up a decent practice rig, but any advice would be awesome.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#2
#2

Controlled dice-tossing, [no matter what anyone says to the contrary], is NOT the way to go - for several reasons:

  1. Extremely few people have had the skills to succeed at controlling the dice.
  2. Craps tables have all been resurfaced so that their felt has no cushioning underneath. Thus extreme bounce is the result.
  3. Many casinos have replaced their older 12' craps tables with 14 footers.

Re blackjack: The game that you describe is beatable, if you just put some effort into study and practice.
You neglected to mention how deep the penetration is; but you can make some minor profits and keep
your "Risk Of Ruin" to a reasonable level, betting $5 to $60.

Wouldn't you rather make a small amount of money at BJ than lose your bankroll shooting craps.
 
C

collegebj

Member
#3
#3
1. I think its more then you give credit, as it doesnt take much to gain an edge in craps, since its already so small. I would not be betting my money until i can see from practicing i have decent edge.

2. My casinos table isnt all to bouncy, i play alot there and have tried doing some of the throws and believe if any table is beatable, this could be one. Many experts ive read from also say its not the bounciness that is always a problem

3. If your shooting from SR1 that extra foot really isnt that big of a deal.

The pen is about 1 deck, sometimes 1.5 so very decent. But 60 max leaves me with 20 max bets. That would easily be lost quickly. Idk what the RoR is but if someone could give me a close estimate that would be cool.

Im not buying into anyones system if that is what your thinking, i have been reading boards much like this for DI. I just dont understand how people can be so blind to think that if bj is so easily beatable, why craps cannot be aswell.

I have put the effort and study into being able to beat the game at my casino, but i know that bad variance could easily wipe me out. In my opinion, if i can practice and show even a slight edge, as small as SRR of 6.5+ i would have the same edge, with much less risk then bj. I would really like to have someone who has tried to learn comment, If you have never tried how would you really know? theoretically it makes sense.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#4
#4
Dice control

I was a success at DI for years a long time ago. The casinos have worked on counter measures to try to deal with this so it is harder to do effectively now. Now there is a much smaller margin for error in technique. My DI philosophy may be different than others. I believe the most used technique is to try to get the dice to do the same thing.

My philosophy was to increase the probability of 4 sides of each die while decreasing the probability of the other 2. This is achieved by getting the dice to tumble (rotate) along an axis thru the two under represented sides of each die. When practicing I used two different colored casino regulation dice and recorded the results of each die as well as the roll. I always put the colors on the same side every time and I set them to the same setting each time. The statistics show your ability to control the left die and the right one from a standard dice setting and can be used to choose an optimal setting. This is an inexact science as you will find you are not a robot and your ability to control the dice will vary from time to time. This makes the law of large numbers somewhat useless and smaller samplings insufficient.

A few tips about how to optimize both your play and the practice sessions. You will find you will tire after a while and your statistics will show this. You may find spots around the craps table you have much better control from and others that you have no influence from. Learn the best spot to throw from that your mechanics flow the best from and which ones to avoid at all costs.

Both philosophies require a soft throw and perform best when both dice react in a similar fashion after landing. You must learn to throw the same with every throw as much as possible while missing the chips on the table. I threw with a small backward rotation to the dice and attempted to have them land flat on the table. If done properly the dice land and do not roll. That really doesnt happen to both dice at the same time much but when it does it is impressive.

The best person at DI I ever witnessed landed the dice in the same place inches from the backwall every time with a soft touch. They typically bounced against the backwall and settled in the position were they landed. He set them with the hard numbers around the tumble (I wouldnt do that, it sets 4 sevens in the sixteen increased probability combinations) and seemed to roll nothing but hard numbers. It was very impressive.
 
C

collegebj

Member
#5
#5
tthree said:
I was a success at DI for years a long time ago. The casinos have worked on counter measures to try to deal with this so it is harder to do effectively now. Now there is a much smaller margin for error in technique. My DI philosophy may be different than others. I believe the most used technique is to try to get the dice to do the same thing.

My philosophy was to increase the probability of 4 sides of each die while decreasing the probability of the other 2. This is achieved by getting the dice to tumble (rotate) along an axis thru the two under represented sides of each die. When practicing I used two different colored casino regulation dice and recorded the results of each die as well as the roll. I always put the colors on the same side every time and I set them to the same setting each time. The statistics show your ability to control the left die and the right one from a standard dice setting and can be used to choose an optimal setting. This is an inexact science as you will find you are not a robot and your ability to control the dice will vary from time to time. This makes the law of large numbers somewhat useless and smaller samplings insufficient.

A few tips about how to optimize both your play and the practice sessions. You will find you will tire after a while and your statistics will show this. You may find spots around the craps table you have much better control from and others that you have no influence from. Learn the best spot to throw from that your mechanics flow the best from and which ones to avoid at all costs.

Both philosophies require a soft throw and perform best when both dice react in a similar fashion after landing. You must learn to throw the same with every throw as much as possible while missing the chips on the table. I threw with a small backward rotation to the dice and attempted to have them land flat on the table. If done properly the dice land and do not roll. That really doesnt happen to both dice at the same time much but when it does it is impressive.

The best person at DI I ever witnessed landed the dice in the same place inches from the backwall every time with a soft touch. They typically bounced against the backwall and settled in the position were they landed. He set them with the hard numbers around the tumble (I wouldnt do that, it sets 4 sevens in the sixteen increased probability combinations) and seemed to roll nothing but hard numbers. It was very impressive.
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That was what i was looking for. Thank you. I have heard the two color practice technique while reading recently. Any chance it was you on a different board under a different name? I was at my local casino yesterday and there was a DI there, or atleast someone who thought they were, he had the three finger front grip with the 3s in a v set. His dice spun in air tons and did not stay on axis, so i could tell he was not very good. I agree with your philosphy of trying to keep them on axis. Any insight you could provide on how to begin and practice and things to look for would be awesome and i would be very greatful. If you dont mind me asking aswell how well did you do? With a 1k bankroll is it worth a try?
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Although I disagree with the specifics of FLASH's points #2 & 3, I agree with his underlying premise.

GO WITH BLACKJACK.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#7
#7
Think it over

I gave up DI for blackjack because of the counter measures the casino put in. It is not easy to be successful. It wasnt easy even before the counter measures. My advice stick to low house edge bets unless you have extreme evidence that you are extremely good. If you are that good high house edge bets are often the most profitable. I would recommend the low edge bets. You will have less of a risk that way.

I had someone tell me they were very very good one time I devised a strategy to be used only if a shooter was that good. It used many of the crazy bets on the come out. He made a fortune on the come out for a few months but had to stop after that because his results slid a little. If I remember right you layed the 5 and 9 on the come out and bet the whirl, yo and pass. The dice were set so the three and four were on the axis on both dice. A perfect tumble never produced a 5 or 9, and rolled a seven 25% of the time, rolled 2 and 12 one out of 16 rolls each, and the 3 and the yo 1 out of eight rolls each. The remaining 12.5% of the perfect tumble established the point. Big lay bets on the 5 and 9 made the seven pay huge.

That was always my if I ever got good enough plan. I told it to my friend half because if he was right it would kill and half because I didnt think he was that good and it would show him that he wasnt that good. To much house edge to overcome. Well for months he avoided comeout fives and nines and made more on his come outs than any other time. Once his control faltered he had to go back to a more conservative plan.

If you are going to try craps rather than BJ (I am not recommending this) practice, practice, practice. Analyze your results so you know if you are changing probability. But most importantly realize the counter measures are going to produce results closer to random.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#9
#9
Statistics

Just to give you an idea of what to expect in your data. I chose to break up my data into chunks of 24 rolls (4*6 the product of the 4 sides you are trying to roll and the 6 sides of a die). Random chance would expect success on a die (one of the four sides in the tumble) 16 times in each block. I always and I do mean always produced more with each die. Most of the time it was 17 or 18 out of 24 rolls. But when I was hot I would I would do better than 18 repeatedly with both dice block after block. If you find yourself rolling the expected 16 or fewer at all you may not be able to show a profit. You need to affect BOTH dice to realize an advantage. I always had a weak die that the affect was small on. If I didnt I would have bet my if I ever got good enough plan.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Do not play craps, unless you have a casino craps table at your house, and you know from hypothesis testing there's a 99% chance you're an advantage player.

Just back-count the shoes.
 
M

Midwestern

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
collegebj said:
I just dont understand how people can be so blind to think that if bj is so easily beatable, why craps cannot be aswell.
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its not that most people here are blind, its that we KNOW blackjack is beatable because there have been DECADES of research done on it to prove it so. craps is just scarier because there is no amount of math that can prove a +EV, its more based on a physical skill.

If you were a decent baseball player i wouldn't tell you to skip the minor leagues team because i thought a desk job was safer. this is kind of the same situation, except you are really good at craps. listen.... if you're a great dice controller and you think you have the chops to make some dough when you throw, go for it man!
 
T

tthree

Banned
#12
#12
Nice baseball analogy

I like your baseball analogy Midwestern. You are like a player signed to be the designated hitter. His value is based on one skill. Once he hits a batting slump he is a liability not an asset. The coach has to decide whether to bench him not to hurt the team (BR) until his practices show he has gotten past it. But if the slump only is exhibited during the different playing conditions found in the actual game, the coach must decide whether to loss games (BR) to let him work thru it or bench him (stop shooting dice) to help maintain their position in the division (BR). Then he would bring in another DH (blackjack) to try to raise the teams record (BR). The problem with this is you feel you already have an insufficient BR. When you "bench" yourself it will be even worse if you didnt produce results to begin with.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#14
#14
ADo you still have an advantage in the casino?

moo321 said:
Do not play craps, unless you have a casino craps table at your house, and you know from hypothesis testing there's a 99% chance you're an advantage player.

Just back-count the shoes.
Click to expand...
I have a 14 footer at my dads house but they keep changing what is under the felt in the casino. No way to be sure the regulation table you have will have the dice bounce the same unless you know what is under their felt.

You know you can affect the dice on your table a certain amount. But you can only hope you can affect the dice on the casino table and that the different amount of this effect due to an unknown landing surface still has you at an advantage. Your bankroll will tell the tale after you either lost it or you have been playing for years.

I was in a bad car wreck and assumed my loss of effectiveness was due to this. But a change in surface that occurred during my year long rehabilitation could have been the cause.
 
C

collegebj

Member
#15
#15
Midwestern said:
its not that most people here are blind, its that we KNOW blackjack is beatable because there have been DECADES of research done on it to prove it so. craps is just scarier because there is no amount of math that can prove a +EV, its more based on a physical skill.

If you were a decent baseball player i wouldn't tell you to skip the minor leagues team because i thought a desk job was safer. this is kind of the same situation, except you are really good at craps. listen.... if you're a great dice controller and you think you have the chops to make some dough when you throw, go for it man!
Click to expand...
Maybe blind was a bad word, my bad. I agree with you that blackjack is a safer bet, it is proven to be beatable and i think i could beat it if i had the time and money. I just think my Risk would be to high of losing my whole BR by just counting before i doubled it. Which isnt the end of the world as i would spend it either way. I just assumed from reading, that if i practiced and could show i had some skill with dice, i would have a better shot at making money.

tthree said:
I have a 14 footer at my dads house but they keep changing what is under the felt in the casino. No way to be sure the regulation table you have will have the dice bounce the same unless you know what is under their felt.

You know you can affect the dice on your table a certain amount. But you can only hope you can affect the dice on the casino table and that the different amount of this effect due to an unknown landing surface still has you at an advantage. Your bankroll will tell the tale after you either lost it or you have been playing for years.

I was in a bad car wreck and assumed my loss of effectiveness was due to this. But a change in surface that occurred during my year long rehabilitation could have been the cause.
Click to expand...
If i do decide after all of this, to try to learn DI then my rig at home would be set to try and resemble things like the bounce of the table at my local casino, with their dice and such. I was under the impression from articles such as this (Dead link: http://diceinstitute.maxforum.org/2010/09/28/everything-an-srr-65-shooter-always-wanted-to-know/) that if i could prove maybe a 7.5+ srr at home i would have a ok chance at the casino? Am i way off base here? I know there are people who are doing this today, if im willing to put the work in do i not have any chance of being one of those?

I have always been an athlete, and i like how with skill i could beat a game. It has sort of given me this drive recently to try and see if i could work and achieve results. With counting even if im doing it right, it is easy to see no benefit, there is nothing that says because you counted right you will win the hand, with DI if i can get to the point of being able to have some skill, could i not see it in my rolls? I understand i would still have 7s, and it wouldnt be much of a change, but i would notice a difference. I could tell if i rolled it correctly if it was still on axis and certain number were coming up more often, i could tell if i was achieving DI even if i wasnt winning just by simple analysis of my rolls. If im achieving and an edge it i could tell and if im not i could tell aswell. I am going to play craps either way this summer, if i can achieve any success at all in it though would just be an added benefit and take the rest of my play from blackjack.
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
tthree said:
I have a 14 footer at my dads house but they keep changing what is under the felt in the casino. No way to be sure the regulation table you have will have the dice bounce the same unless you know what is under their felt.
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Without elaborating too much, length and bounce (perhaps with a one extreme vs. another) are truly overrated factors. No table is the same as another, so application in the casino is ALWAYS going to require adjustments.

If you play at the same casino on the same table all the time, that might be a different story for the most part. But nuances are part of the AP dice game, and always will be regardless of the material.
 
T

tthree

Banned
#18
#18
collegebj said:
Maybe blind was a bad word, my bad. I agree with you that blackjack is a safer bet, it is proven to be beatable and i think i could beat it if i had the time and money. I just think my Risk would be to high of losing my whole BR by just counting before i doubled it. Which isnt the end of the world as i would spend it either way. I just assumed from reading, that if i practiced and could show i had some skill with dice, i would have a better shot at making money.



If i do decide after all of this, to try to learn DI then my rig at home would be set to try and resemble things like the bounce of the table at my local casino, with their dice and such. I was under the impression from articles such as this (Dead link: http://diceinstitute.maxforum.org/2010/09/28/everything-an-srr-65-shooter-always-wanted-to-know/) that if i could prove maybe a 7.5+ srr at home i would have a ok chance at the casino? Am i way off base here? I know there are people who are doing this today, if im willing to put the work in do i not have any chance of being one of those?

I have always been an athlete, and i like how with skill i could beat a game. It has sort of given me this drive recently to try and see if i could work and achieve results. With counting even if im doing it right, it is easy to see no benefit, there is nothing that says because you counted right you will win the hand, with DI if i can get to the point of being able to have some skill, could i not see it in my rolls? I understand i would still have 7s, and it wouldnt be much of a change, but i would notice a difference. I could tell if i rolled it correctly if it was still on axis and certain number were coming up more often, i could tell if i was achieving DI even if i wasnt winning just by simple analysis of my rolls. If im achieving and an edge it i could tell and if im not i could tell aswell. I am going to play craps either way this summer, if i can achieve any success at all in it though would just be an added benefit and take the rest of my play from blackjack.
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Your advantage is not realized by avoiding the 7. It is realized when you bet the numbers whose ratio to the number of sevens rolled change to a point that you now have an advantage. When you avoid the 7 you are most likely avoiding other numbers as well. Think about it. You could realize an advantage in rolling more sevens if you also roll even more of any other numbers. It is the change in these ratios that give you an advantage when compared to the payout for that bet!!!!!!!
 
C

collegebj

Member
#19
#19
tthree said:
Your advantage is not realized by avoiding the 7. It is realized when you bet the numbers whose ratio to the number of sevens rolled change to a point that you now have an advantage. When you avoid the 7 you are most likely avoiding other numbers as well. Think about it. You could realize an advantage in rolling more sevens if you also roll even more of any other numbers. It is the change in these ratios that give you an advantage when compared to the payout for that bet!!!!!!!
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I know that its not always about not rolling the sevens, that you have to bet with your advantage, but if you can avoid the seven, which if your setting the dice that way, a decent way to judge if you are having success is your seven to rolls ratio is it not? The article i posted is a good read, if you haven't read it i recommend it, i believe the math in it is correct in it and it makes perfect sense to me. While it is only one way to play, it is a fairly safe way in my opinion. I realize if i track my stats it would be wise to track and see if any number is coming up more then it should be after many many rolls and bet those with the correct bet for the edge i have on them, but that also would put me at more of a risk of losing more money. If i can track and show a good SRR then with just betting the way shown in the article, i could have a shot at making a little money with less of a risk. Am i correct in this conclusion?

CP: While from what i have read on here since ive been here, i respect your opinion greatly, but i just dont see what you do apparently. I believe there probably better ways, but i do not know them.
 
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