blackjack is for ENTERTAINMENT ONLY1

joel099 · Dec 9, 2006

play a 25-500 spread all you want-

Cass said:

At casino arizona you can bet 25-500 spread ALL YOU WANT !!WITHOUT GETTING A BIT OF ATTENTION. Your bets can go like this -25,25,25,500,25,25,500,500,25,500 etc and the pit boss will not even care. Because he knows that eventually you will get your ass kicked overall. The pit bosses have seen it too many times. They have seen the cocky card counters come in on a SIX DECK MULTISHOE and getting their ass kicked on only the third shoe. The AVERAGE SHOE will give you 30 hands if you are playing with one other person at the table. You will be lucky to win 12-13hands on a GOOD SHOE . so even if you are betting 25 dollars a hand . you will be DOWN.WAY DOWN on this good shoe. whats a bad shoe on a six deck shoe?..where you win 5-6 hands out of 30 hands..NOW THATS A BAD SHOE!!!
And you will get SEVERAL of these shoes in a ROW at casino arizona.I invite anybody on this board to come down to casino arizona and beat these shoes. but bring your bank roll because after your first shoe on a 25 min table you will be down $250 and you will have to start betting table max AT SOME POINT TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK TO EVEN OR EVEN SHOW A PROFIT.

JOEL

ScottH · Dec 9, 2006

joel099 said:

At casino arizona you can bet 25-500 spread ALL YOU WANT !!WITHOUT GETTING A BIT OF ATTENTION. Your bets can go like this -25,25,25,500,25,25,500,500,25,500 etc and the pit boss will not even care. Because he knows that eventually you will get your ass kicked overall. The pit bosses have seen it too many times. They have seen the cocky card counters come in on a SIX DECK MULTISHOE and getting their ass kicked on only the third shoe. The AVERAGE SHOE will give you 30 hands if you are playing with one other person at the table. You will be lucky to win 12-13hands on a GOOD SHOE . so even if you are betting 25 dollars a hand . you will be DOWN.WAY DOWN on this good shoe. whats a bad shoe on a six deck shoe?..where you win 5-6 hands out of 30 hands..NOW THATS A BAD SHOE!!!
And you will get SEVERAL of these shoes in a ROW at casino arizona.I invite anybody on this board to come down to casino arizona and beat these shoes. but bring your bank roll because after your first shoe on a 25 min table you will be down $250 and you will have to start betting table max AT SOME POINT TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK TO EVEN OR EVEN SHOW A PROFIT.

JOEL

You're crazy...

Aren't you the guy that "invented" the never bust strategy? :laugh:

Automatic Monkey · Dec 9, 2006

joel099 said:

Yeah man this is stupid talk. First of all, every one of us has played against 6D and 8D games profitably. Most professionals and teams play against these games exclusively.

Second of all, none of us could care less about winning sessions in a row and all that progression-related crap. That's like expecting a major league baseball team to win 24 games in a row- they could play against a minor league team and that wouldn't happen. A great baseball team wins 60% of it's games and a lousy team wins 40%.

Finally, you've been talking about losing while playing progressions. Who the hell ever told you to play a progression? Certainly not any card counter or legitimate blackjack author. From the way you are posting I doubt you have the psychology to absorb and use the methods necessary to beat blackjack.

Brutus · Dec 9, 2006

I agree with one thing.

that is true.
the problem is lousy penetration at C.A.
maybe you've seen me.

I call myself black jack, gals are the black jills.
no penetration whatsoever, very fustrating.

shadroch · Dec 9, 2006

Scott,
I imagine the vast majority of board members live several hours away fronm casinos.I'm 140 miles from AC,a bit closer to Foxwoods,and a five hour flight from Vegas.We all have expenses involved as well.A big part of being a successful player is adapting to the playing conditions.
Lenny Fomme,one of the originators of AP video poker, explainded advantage play like a three legged stool. Imagine for yourself a three legged stool. One leg is choosing the right game.One is playing the right strrategy and the third isknowing what to expect. If all three lega aren't secure,you will fall on your ass quite often.

ScottH · Dec 9, 2006

shadroch said:

Yeah, but you have to play enough to get an EV to compensate for your expenses and earn a decent hourly rate, otherwise it is completely pointless to go. 1 A 1.5 hour trip wouldn't be that bad if there were several casinos in the area so I could get more hours in, but yet keep sessions short at each casino. But there are no other casinos in close proximity to it, so I was FORCED to either play long sessions or not go at all. My unit size was fairly small at the time so the sessions had to be long in order to overcome the expenses and traveling time factor. If I had the bankroll to spread black, then I would not have needed to play as long. So for me it was either play long sessions, or not play at all. I am not messing around with miniscule EV.

I estimated my EV to be about 25 dollars per hour. Let's assume I play a 3 hour session, which is considered to be long, and is hard to hide your skill after several sessions. 3 hours X 25 = 75 expected win. Subtract 15 dollars for gas (split with a partner) and that is 60 profit for the trip. The 2-way trip is 3 hours, and 3 hours table time, so 6 hours total. 60/6 = $10/hour profit. I want to make at least 10 dollars per hour to make it worth my while, so I need to play sessions that are AT LEAST 3 hours long to reach that target. I would play at least 3, and often even longer to make a decent wage playing at the tables.

So it's really a different story to be 1.5 hours from ONE casino, and being a four hour flight away from Las Vegas. Taking the flight takes longer and costs more, but you have many more oppurtunities to play in Vegas. You can move from shop to shop playing short sessions and staying under the radar, all the while paying for your expenses and then some.

supercoolmancool · Dec 9, 2006

Not to mention we would still be playing there (probably), if only they had had more that one table in which we were forced to play at the same time.

Bojack1 · Dec 9, 2006

Automatic Monkey said:

Monkey is right on here. As far as my team goes we play shoe games exclusively. The only time I'll play single or double deck is if I'm playing on my own recreationally. Monkey also seems dead on with his description of what a true AP expects and most likely why you Joel aren't getting it. I'm not saying you can't get it, but it seems your mindset is totally off in how to win at this game and won't be changing anytime soon.

And Joel since you so cordially invited members of the board to visit your store, do me this favor if you will. Let me know what the rules of the game are there, and if they're anything close to decent, I promise you will see us there at least to check it out. If the spreads are allowed to be as ridiculous as stated it at the very least intrigues me. Usually large spreads are allowed to people the casinos are sure aren't counting, or are sure they're really bad at it. But at any rate, if the rules are playable, and they are truly lax about counters, we will be there. If the penetration isn't good thats alright, we've got other ways to skin a cat, but I would still like an idea what the pen is to see what type of game plan to draw up. So we just might be seeing you soon. If you do I'll make a bet that you'll be changing your tune on how unbeatable this game is.

positiveEV · Dec 9, 2006

Bojack1 said:

That's why Joel was allowed to

supercoolmancool · Dec 9, 2006

Bojack1 said:

That's what i'm talking about. You can't make a living just as a card counter. Unless i'm wrong because I really don't know.

ihate17 · Dec 9, 2006

Bojack, I have been there but chose not to play

Bojack1 said:

When I went to Casino Arizona in Scottsdale there was a ton of CSM's and perhaps 6 tables with a 6 deck shoe game. Penetration was poor with 2 decks cut off, dealer hits soft 17 and no late surrender. Simply a very poor game with a house edge of about .56%, so why bother playing. Just to show how pathetic this is, this is their high roller game?
The game of course is still beatable but an increased spread is needed and that means higher variance.

ihate17

Bojack1 · Dec 9, 2006

ihate17 said:

Actually it does sound like a pretty bad place to hit, especially with a team. We will be out west within the next few weeks for a little while, maybe we'll just stop in to check it out while we're out there. Doesn't sound like we would want to make a special trip out there just for that casino but if we're somewhat in the vicinity, we might as well stop in. Besides I've got some friends in Mesa I haven't seen in a long time, so at least it won't be a total waste. Thanks for the info ihate17.

joel099 · Dec 10, 2006

ihate17 and Bojack1 , when you DO decide to come over to casino arizona,

let me know by emailing me at :

[email protected]

they have two types of tables
1. $15 min $250 max bet: six deck shoe (DEALER HITS SOFT 17)

2. $25 min $500 max bet : six deck shoe (DEALER HITS SOFT 17)

bring bank too....If you plan on playing the 25 dollar table you will need at LEAST $1000...because your first two shoes could be such that out of THIRTY HANDS DEALT YOU WIN ONLY 6-8 HANDS TOTAL USING PERFECT STRATEGY...THINK ABOUT IT-- 8 WINNING HANDS OUT OF 28-30 HANDS PLAYED. OOOOOOPHS..IF THAT DOESNT KICK YOU IN THE STOMACH THEN THE NEXT SHOE WILL WHEN THE ODDS OF HANDS WON WILL GO EVEN LOWER. YES I SAID LOWER!!!

ON SOME EXTRA BAD SHOES YOU WILL WIN ONLY 3-5 HANDS OUT OF 30...THATS WHY YOU BRING BIG BANK WHEN YOU COME TO CASINO ARIZONA-- BUT YET YOU WILL STILL LOSE AFTER THREE TO FOUR SHOES PLAYED.

THATS HOW THIS CASINO MAKES 4.5 MILION DOLLARS
PER DAY WITH 1.5 MILLION COMING FROM THE BLACKJACK TABLES ALONE..AND THE OTHER 3 MILLION FROM THE SLOTS.THESE ARE DAILY FIGURES..

CARD COUNTERS ARE VERY WELCOME AT OUR CASINO. YOU CAN EVEN STAND UP AT THE TABLE AND ANNOUNCE YOU ARE GOING TO COUNT CARDS AND THE PIT BOSS WILL WISH YOU GOOD LUCK AND GIVE YOU A BIG LAUGH .THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST COUNTERS IN THE WORLD COME INTO THIS MULTIMILLION DOLLAR CASINO. ONE GUY CAME IN AND WAS UP ABOUT 5 THOUSAND BY BETTING MAX BET OF $500 PER HAND WHEN THE COUNT WENT POSITIVE.. BUT ON THE NEXT TEN HANDS -the casino TOOK IT ALL AWAY AND YET THE COUNT WAS STILL HIGH IN THE POSITIVE.

HE WALKED AWAY 8 THOUSAND IN THE NEGATIVE AND WALKED AWAY JUST SHAKING HIS HEAD. HE WAS CONSISTENTLY GETTING 19-TWENTY ON HIS HANDS BUT THE DEALER WAS GOING 7-4-10=21,BJ,A-2-8,6-5-10,4-6-A,AND HE LOST TWO DOUBLE DOWN HANDS BY DRAWING 3 ON TOP OF HIS 6-5 PAIR. ALL THIS WHEN THE COUNT WAS +11.

THE DEALERS HERE TRY TO DEAL FAST BUT MOST OF THEM DEAL SLOW TO ME .SLOW OR FAST MAKES NO DIFFERENCE- THE RESULTS ARE THE SAME: YOU WILL LOSE MANY MANY MORE HANDS THAN YOU WILL WIN AS SHOE AFTER SHOE IS DEALT TO YOU..

THE SIX DECK SHOES ARE SHUFFLED BY A MACHINE CALLED "SHUFFLEMASTER". IT IS CURRENTLY UNDER LAWSUITE BY A GROUP OF PLAYERS WHO CLAIM THAT THE SHUFFLEMASTER IS ABLE TO SHUFFLE THE CARDS IN SUCH A WAY TO CREAT CONSISTENT "DEALER BIASED" PATTERNS. I BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A TINY SHRED OF TRUTH TO THIS.

i WENT TO THE CASINO ARIZONA TODAY AND A TYPICAL TABLE WILL HAVE THE DEALER HAVING THESE HANDS. I ONLY OBSERVED 20 HANDS BUT I REMEMBER THE HANDS : HERE'S WHAT THE DEALER HAD: BJ, 9-2-8,PAIR OF JACKS FOR 20,4-6-10, 10-6-6 bust,10-7,BJ,8-2-A,10-10,2-3-5-10,5-10-10BUST,PAIR OF QUEENS,6-5-8,3-8-10,10-5-4,10-7,A9,3 -3- 4 -9 ,4- 7 -10,
7-8-6...THREE PLAYERS WERE AT THE TABLE AND THEY ALL GOT SPANKED.

ALL THREE LOST 70% OF THEIR HANDS-- JUST ON THIS ONE SHOE ALONE THAT WAS JUST "ABOUT AVERAGE " OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE TYPE OF HANDS THAT THE DEALER GETS AT CASINO ARIZONA.

THE DEALER'S IN CA WILL AVERAGE 19.5 ON ALL HANDS PLAYED AND WILL BUST ON AVERAGE OF 1 OUT OF TEN HANDS. THESE ARE HARD STATISTICS TO BEAT.GOOD LUCK.
JOEL

EasyRhino · Dec 10, 2006

Joel, I don't see why you're so scared of the sure games. I'll confess that they have a larger house edge than SD or DD games, but they're not fatal.

For instance, take me. I'm a novice counter, been doing it for a few months. I use one of the simpler counts, and only minor strategy deviations. I don't use any advanced techniques. I bet pretty damn small, my spread is usually $5-$50 or $10-$50.

More importantly, all I play is shoe games. It's what I'm used to, and it's all that I can afford in my area. Most are 6D, some are 8D, some offer surrender, and some don't. Many casinos use autoshufflers between shoes (I prefer them).

I'm up significantly since I started four months ago. I've had some truly ugly sessions (and ugly weekends), but there are a lot of winning sessions in there to. I don't make nearly enough to make a living at the game, but the limitation is not the inherent nature of the game. The limitation is my bankroll, which prevents big bets, and also my total nerdishness, which would light me up if I started betting big.

So, in conclusion, I recommend doing some research on proportional betting, and contrast it with what you've been doing for the past few years.

Automatic Monkey · Dec 10, 2006

supercoolmancool said:

You can, because you can always find good penetration somewhere. When I am Wonging the AC Boardwalk I will walk up to 10 miles in a 24 hour session, looking for opportunity.

Let me just add a caveat to that: if you are checking out hundreds of dealers per day looking for pen, you will on occasion find a dealer flashing or blowing a game rule. So any full-time counter will sometimes find himself playing hole cards.

ihate17 · Dec 10, 2006

19.5, its more like 18.5

Joel

I play often throughout southern California. Where in the world do you get your 19.5 figure?
Also, it is good form on the internet to not capitalize full messages, if you like capitalization, then do it to just the part that is most important.

A couple of the places I play in have shufflemaster machines and except for the fact that I can not follow a slug of cards, I really have not seen a difference between them and a hand shuffle.

Now about your casino: When counting there, do you get more than your share of positive counts? I ask this question because in Eastern Europe there are casinos that short the shoe. They will remove some aces and faces and put in some extra 5's. I should add that one California Indian Casino was caught doing this five or so years ago. This, of course, is out and out cheating and could possibly explain some of what you are stating here.
In looking at the games offered in Arizona, it appears that Tucson is about the only place with some decent rules.

ihate17

ortango · Dec 10, 2006

I can't believe it took Jeol 3 years to figure out that he can't beat the casino. Usually when I get my head beat in I get the point pretty fast.

Joel,

Baccarat only gives the house 1.5% edge at best, similar to the advantage a good counter has. And yet it makes money year after year in every casino. Because every player playing is a like a counter playing for the casino. So if you play long enough as a good counter, you will make money unless you overbet and run out.

Brutus · Dec 10, 2006

Trip report

I took the drive to Fort Mcdowell casino last night.

They cut anywhere between 1.75 decks and 2.5 decks out of 6.

Casino Arizona cuts 1.5 (on occasion) to 2.25 out of 6.
I gotta say though, C.A. uses the whole deck.

I call myself black jack, gals are the black jills.
no penetration whatsoever, very fustrating.

there is no reason to play the lousy conditions here.
besides navigating the local knuckleheads. (HA!)

sagefr0g · Dec 10, 2006

fun & games

hey Joel099 check out the link below:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wontwin.html

then read this

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=12302&postcount=15

checkmaterob · Dec 11, 2006

Joel read this post I copied and pasted from hitorstand.net and maybe you will at least open your mind to some different concepts:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have to share what is now my favorite casino story.

I have never been a big fan of so called advantage play. And as most on this board know I called out supposedly one of the better players of it in Bojack. He did message me that he couldn't make it to the casino I go to over the weekend, but if I could change it to a different day he'd be there. He also asked for a way to recognize me, and said he would approach me once he found me. Fair enough.
I get to the casino wednesday around at the agreed time of 10am. I go to a $10 table and buy in for $300 and start playing. At 11:00 still no Bojack and I lost $100 dollars already, I am not happy. About a half hour later this fella sits next to me and buys in for $500 in green. He's betting fairly heavy and playing rather stupidly and by 12:00 he's buying in for another $500. At this point his play has caused 2 people to leave the table, and the 1 remaining besides me is constantly getting on him. But Mr. green chipper just smiles and says sorry alot. He's a likeable enough guy and I really feel sorry for him for foolishly blowing his money away. Funny thing though, he's about halfway through his second buy in and he starts winning. In 1 shoe he gets all his money back plus a few hundred. The next shoe the same thing, except now the guy is up a few thousand. His good luck is even effecting us and we start playing his hunches because he's so lucky. At about 2:00 I realize there's no Bojack to be found, But instead of being mad at that chickens**t for not showing, I'm happy as hell because I'm up over $1000 for the day. At this point Mr. green chips colors in over 5 grand. I tell him he should go home now because luck like that doesn't come around much. He leaves and 5 minutes later a cocktail waitress brings me a coffee and a note she said one of my friends gave her. It says " I had a great time playing with you, hope you enjoyed the advantage. I wish you continued good luck. Bojack"

I'm still stunned, and I still can't explain it. I dont know the ryme or reason to his play, but I did see something unbelievable first hand. If what you were doing is some kind of advantage play, my hats off to you buddy you seem to be right about it. But I would really like an explanation for the strange way in which you play. Anyway I apologize for the coarse words in the past, and thank you for a great experience. 36 years playing this game, and this old dog might just rethink a few things about it.

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If you are interested in the rest of this thread, here is the link:

(Dead link: http://hitorstand.net/forum/showthread.php?t=3026)

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