Blackjack Verite Game

[kcchiefsfan1982]

I bought the Blackjack Verite game for android...starting with a $5,000 bank roll...It has my bet spread at $10, $25, $50, $75.

So far, I have turned the $5,000 into $5,895. Is this game fairly accurate as to what I should expect in real life?

I am betting the following:

+0 = $10
+1 = $10
+2 = $25
+3= $50
+4 and greater: $75

 

[DSchles]

You need to understand something that is very important. No amount of what you do on a game or app has any real relevance to what you can expect. There will be every conceivable type of outcome, and "what you should expect in real life" is the unexpected!

So, have fun playing, but put NO STOCK WHATSOEVER in the results, and don't try to draw any meaningful conclusions from them.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

You need to understand something that is very important. No amount of what you do on a game or app has any real relevance to what you can expect. There will be every conceivable type of outcome, and "what you should expect in real life" is the unexpected!

So, have fun playing, but put NO STOCK WHATSOEVER in the results, and don't try to draw any meaningful conclusions from them.

Don

you don't think, in 200 hours of playing that game, it would be somewhat relevant?

i understand the variances in the short term.

but, long term, i would think it would be accurate... maybe after 500 hours.

 

[Dopple]

I have been in this forum long enough I can tell you right now Don won't change his tune. He pretty much wrote the book on this game.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

I have been in this forum long enough I can tell you right now Don won't change his tune. He pretty much wrote the book on this game.

I hear ya...but if I double my bank roll on that game in 500 hours...does it at least mean I am probably counting correct, making the correct plays, with the correct bet spread?

Again...in 500 hours....

 

[DSchles]

And if you're losing after 500 hours, will you conclude you're doing something wrong? If you want to know if you're playing properly, do drills and test your skills. Your personal results will be meaningless.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

And if you're losing after 500 hours, will you conclude you're doing something wrong? If you want to know if you're playing properly, do drills and test your skills. Your personal results will be meaningless.

Don

Considering my RoR is suppose to be 10%....then, if I lost that $5000, I would conclude that I am doing something wrong. Yes.

I pass with flying colors on all the tests and drills. My first year of playing 600 hrs just to lose $300 was... not terrible, but not motivating either. Glad I played rated and got all my boyd casino vacations.

 

[DSchles]

"Considering my RoR is suppose(d) to be 10%....then, if I lost that $5000, I would conclude that I am doing something wrong. Yes.

Then you don't understand the game, and I can't help you. It is always amazing to me how newcomers come to forums, ask questions, and then when they get answers they don't like, begin telling the experts the way things ought to be. Truly incredible.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

"Considering my RoR is suppose(d) to be 10%....then, if I lost that $5000, I would conclude that I am doing something wrong. Yes.

Then you don't understand the game, and I can't help you. It is always amazing to me how newcomers come to forums, ask questions, and then when they get answers they don't like, 1

"Considering my RoR is suppose(d) to be 10%....then, if I lost that $5000, I would conclude that I am doing something wrong. Yes.

Then you don't understand the game, and I can't help you. It is always amazing to me how newcomers come to forums, ask questions, and then when they get answers they don't like, begin telling the experts the way things ought to be. Truly incredible.

Don

Ok, changing my response.

Fair enough...I'll agree that a game is a game and not real life.

I will continue to do drills and will let the cards fall where they may once I start playing again.

 

[BoSox]

Well either Colin w blackjack apprentice is right or you are.

Considering Im risking $5,000...ill only go with ppl willing to explain the reasoning behind their answers. That is the basic respect that I give all people in life.

If I don't get the same back, Ill dismiss. Don't have time for non-answers.

What makes you think that anyone owes you answers? I have a problem with this contradiction in the below quote:

"Assuming perfect blackjack play, standard rules and a 1-12 bet spread (better rules or pen would have lower risk, worse rules or pen would have higher risk"

Strange as it sounds the better the rules and pen results in greater risk because of all the extra opportunities that are available to the player "a very good thing but still dangerous". A game with worse rules or pen will require the player to make their bigger bets at slightly lower positive true counts resulting in more risk, but will still have fewer chances to put extra money in the circle which is not a good thing. I will also add the worse that the house rules become, the harder it is for the player to overcome the higher upfront house edge.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

What makes you think that anyone owes you answers? I have a problem with this contradiction in the below quote:

"Assuming perfect blackjack play, standard rules and a 1-12 bet spread (better rules or pen would have lower risk, worse rules or pen would have higher risk"

Strange as it sounds the better the rules and pen results in greater risk because of all the extra opportunities that are available to the player "a very good thing but still dangerous". A game with worse rules or pen will require the player to make their bigger bets at slightly lower positive true counts resulting in more risk, but will still have fewer chances to put extra money in the circle which is not a good thing.

owes? you must be from the coasts. Sorry, Im from the Midwest...different way of life here.

Also, a 10% risk of ruin simply means (statistical chances) that out of 10 players that play perfect, 9 of them will be able to play and play and play, while 1 of the 10 people will lose all their bank roll (500 units).

Or, in 5,000 hours of play....at some point, in 500 of those hours, I will have a losing streak of over 500 units.

 

[MJGolf]

Well first off, Don doesn't suffer repetitive questions or fools very lightly, BUT he usually answers questions with very good intentions. Casino Verite and CVCX are actually incorporate Don's work in them. So cut him a little slack. Not that he needs my help defending himself. I think that what he was trying to tell you that one person's results (or a game's results) don't necessarily coincide with another's results OR actual results in the casino. BUT they may give you an indication of your ability. CVCX can at least give you the statistics behind your betting spread and action. It can give you an hourly expectation but it won't be exact. However your results should rest within the statistical deviations/standard deviations given for the rules and bet spread you input.

Not sure your definition of ROR/Risk of Ruin is correct. I have always understood it more to be your odds in doubling your bankroll v losing your entire bankroll under the conditions given. So a 10% risk of ruin, means under those conditions, you have a 90% chance of doubling your bankroll v. losing the entire bankroll. I don't understand it as 9 perfect players will be able to play endlessly at a profit, while the 1 will lose his bankroll. I may be simplifying the meaning but I leave that to others more experienced than I to explain "Risk of Ruin".

 

[DSchles]

No ROR, although sometimes expressed as reaching a goal of doubling, has no such general stipulation. It simply expresses the probability that you will lose your entire bank. What's the alternative? Winning all the money in the world, or dying before you quite get there!

Yet again, playing online may give you an idea of your comfort in how you are able to PLAY the game. One last time: the results you achieve won't give you an indication of anything at all.

Don

 

[DSchles]

"I don't understand it as 9 perfect players will be able to play endlessly at a profit, while the 1 will lose his bankroll."

And yet, yes, that is what it means.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Well first off, Don doesn't suffer repetitive questions or fools very lightly, BUT he usually answers questions with very good intentions. Casino Verite and CVCX are actually incorporate Don's work in them. So cut him a little slack. Not that he needs my help defending himself. I think that what he was trying to tell you that one person's results (or a game's results) don't necessarily coincide with another's results OR actual results in the casino. BUT they may give you an indication of your ability. CVCX can at least give you the statistics behind your betting spread and action. It can give you an hourly expectation but it won't be exact. However your results should rest within the statistical deviations/standard deviations given for the rules and bet spread you input.

Not sure your definition of ROR/Risk of Ruin is correct. I have always understood it more to be your odds in doubling your bankroll v losing your entire bankroll under the conditions given. So a 10% risk of ruin, means under those conditions, you have a 90% chance of doubling your bankroll v. losing the entire bankroll. I don't understand it as 9 perfect players will be able to play endlessly at a profit, while the 1 will lose his bankroll. I may be simplifying the meaning but I leave that to others more experienced than I to explain "Risk of Ruin".

yes, the 9 players literally will probably be able to play until they die if they double their first bank roll and don't raise their bet spread...

that is why i also said, with a 10% risk of ruin...in 5,000 hours of play...if you break that up into 10 segments of 500 hours...in one of those segments, you are likely to lose 500 units!!! Just hope that it isn't the first 500 hours lol.

Sorry, I estimate in construction for a living, Im a numbers guy.

 

[gronbog]

kcchiefsfan, it seemed briefly that you got it but then you added a bunch of qualifications that are not relevant. As stated above, RoR has nothing to do with doubling your bankroll or losing it all during some 500 round subset of 5000 rounds. It is simply the probability of losing your entire bankroll if you were to play forever.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

kcchiefsfan, it seemed briefly that you got it but then you added a bunch of qualifications that are not relevant. As stated above, RoR has nothing to do with doubling your bankroll or losing it all during some 500 round subset of 5000 rounds. It is simply the probability of losing your entire bankroll if you were to play forever.

I am 100% correct.

Sorry, buddy.

For every 5,000 hours you play, it is likely you will have a segment of 500 hours within that time frame where you lose 500 units (When playing with what starts out as a 10% risk of ruin. This assumes you do not increase your bet spread as you win money...although in reality, you would increase your bet spread at some point....but you would want to knock your 10% risk of ruin to 5%, then to 1%, then eventually to 0.5%).

But, you will have 9 segments (4,500 hours) where you won't lose 500 units...so be happy!

Again, I did not say you would lose your bank roll...i just said you'd lose 500 units. If you have a 2,000 unit bank roll, well, then you didn't lose your entire bank roll, did you?

 

[DSchles]

I'm sorry, but you're confused. There is NO time constraint on the ROR that we're discussing. The 10% chance of losing all your bank could take forever. So, if 10 players embark on a blackjack journey, each with 10% ROR, choosing 5,000 hours and breaking it up into ten segments of 500 hours each has no relevance at all to this discussion.

In fact, if you choose 10 discrete segments of 500 hours and wish to make pronouncements about ROR, you have to use an entirely different formula, which involves a time constraint, as discussed in detail in BJA3.

Please do not make foolish , ill-advised statements such as, "I am 100% correct" (you are not), and worse yet, please understand whom you're speaking to when you write, "Sorry, buddy," to Gronbog. Every day of this life, he forgets more about blackjack than you will ever hope to know!

If you have questions about the above concepts, by all means, write back. Better still, hold off until you have read the Risk of Ruin chapter of BJA3 in its entirety.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

I'm sorry, but you're confused. There is NO time constraint on the ROR that we're discussing. The 10% chance of losing all your bank could take forever. So, if 10 players embark on a blackjack journey, each with 10% ROR, choosing 5,000 hours and breaking it up into ten segments of 500 hours each has no relevance at all to this discussion.

In fact, if you choose 10 discrete segments of 500 hours and wish to make pronouncements about ROR, you have to use an entirely different formula, which involves a time constraint, as discussed in detail in BJA3.

Please do not make foolish , ill-advised statements such as, "I am 100% correct" (you are not), and worse yet, please understand whom you're speaking to when you write, "Sorry, buddy," to Gronbog. Every day of this life, he forgets more about blackjack than you will ever hope to know!

If you have questions about the above concepts, by all means, write back. Better still, hold off until you have read the Risk of Ruin chapter of BJA3 in its entirety.

Don

10 players playing 1 segment of 500 hours is equivalent to....

....1 player playing 10 segments of 500 hours. (in the case that the 1 player does not ever change their betting units as they win)

What is so significant about those first 500 hours? Well, with the betting spread, etc., I am suppose to be averaging $10/hr....so $10 x 500 hours would be where my expected doubling of my bank roll would be.

Ok, I was not 100% right....not far off though.

The one player that loses their bank roll might not lose it all in the first 500 hours. (but good chance they do, or close to it)

But, breaking it up into segments is helpful in seeing the big picture. You sure as hell better not have your biggest losing streak in the 1st segment!!!

Either way...even if you lose your bank roll on the first $5,000....then, you can simply save up another $5,000 and go at it again. Eventually, you will be on the path to, most likely, being able to play forever.

The thing to add to the equation is...if you started with $5,000...but get to $6,000 at any point...your RoR is no longer 10%!!!!

 

[BoSox]

kcchiefsfan1982, I believe that you are Bob21, aka Dbs32, I forgot which one that you used on Norm's site am I right?