Can someone give me some advise

[Carmine782]

Good Morning Everyone, This may be a stupid question but here it goes, I have been going to this same casino for weeks, Im not card counting, but i am card watching, and raising and lowering my bets when alot of low/high card come out, im maybe betting between $100-800 i won like $20K in the past month. my last session was yesterday, i won about $7,000, But when i was up about maybe $9,000 the pit boss took my Rating card out its slot and proceeded to make a phone call with my rating card in his hand. He's probaly calling The Eye in the sky right? Should i be worried? I dont want them to think im card counting , cuz im not, should be worried?

 

[mjbballar23]

Good Morning Everyone, This may be a stupid question but here it goes, I have been going to this same casino for weeks, Im not card counting, but i am card watching, and raising and lowering my bets when alot of low/high card come out, im maybe betting between $100-800 i won like $20K in the past month. my last session was yesterday, i won about $7,000, But when i was up about maybe $9,000 the pit boss took my Rating card out its slot and proceeded to make a phone call with my rating card in his hand. He's probaly calling The Eye in the sky right? Should i be worried? I dont want them to think im card counting , cuz im not, should be worried?

they may have been calling the eye in the sky to watch you and as soon as they take a look at what you are doing, they'll be able to tell that you are not card counting. When you raise your bet after seeing a lot of small cards come out, the EXACT count may still be negative and you wouldn't have any advantage at all. You have nothing to worry about because you are not playing with an advantage by card watching. In some situations you make be raising your bet at the right time but other times you will be raising your bet after the count went from VERY negative to SLIGHTLY negative.

 

[sagefr0g]

Good Morning Everyone, This may be a stupid question but here it goes, I have been going to this same casino for weeks, Im not card counting, but i am card watching, and raising and lowering my bets when alot of low/high card come out, im maybe betting between $100-800 i won like $20K in the past month. my last session was yesterday, i won about $7,000, But when i was up about maybe $9,000 the pit boss took my Rating card out its slot and proceeded to make a phone call with my rating card in his hand. He's probaly calling The Eye in the sky right? Should i be worried? I dont want them to think im card counting , cuz im not, should be worried?

lol, sounds like you are using my 'fuzzy count', what ever that is
you want to pay me some royalties out of that twenty grand? lol.
but yes they may think you are counting as a result of how you are playing. especially how you bet. that sounds like a high roller pit you are playing, is it $100 minimum? how many decks? i'm guessing six.
well congradulations on your current luck and i hope they don't 86 you. you might want to play at some lower table minimums just to mix up your action a bit. i guess the casino may let their guard down a bit on the lower minimum tables. i used to try and ingratiate myself with some of the local ploppies in the joint that i played most frequently. sort of blend in with the crowd so to speak lol. i figured the casino might hesitate 86ing a friend of their valued customers. well anyway try and watch the pit and see if you can determine how closely they are watching you. i know my own self that i can spot most counters a mile away, act or no act infact their act might be the greatest tip off lol and i pretty much tell if they recognize what i'm up to as well. you want to have the same sort of sense of things with regard to the pit. if you do get an act going try and keep it tied to reality as much as you can.
but anyway if you determine the house is likely to 86 you beware that they might just wait and do it when they see you on a bad downswing rather than an upswing in your winnings.

 

[Carmine782]

lol, sounds like you are using my 'fuzzy count', what ever that is
you want to pay me some royalties out of that twenty grand? lol.
but yes they may think you are counting as a result of how you are playing. especially how you bet. that sounds like a high roller pit you are playing, is it $100 minimum? how many decks? i'm guessing six.
well congradulations on your current luck and i hope they don't 86 you. you might want to play at some lower table minimums just to mix up your action a bit. i guess the casino may let their guard down a bit on the lower minimum tables. i used to try and ingratiate myself with some of the local ploppies in the joint that i played most frequently. sort of blend in with the crowd so to speak lol. i figured the casino might hesitate 86ing a friend of their valued customers. well anyway try and watch the pit and see if you can determine how closely they are watching you. i know my own self that i can spot most counters a mile away, act or no act infact their act might be the greatest tip off lol and i pretty much tell if they recognize what i'm up to as well. you want to have the same sort of sense of things with regard to the pit. if you do get an act going try and keep it tied to reality as much as you can.
but anyway if you determine the house is likely to 86 you beware that they might just wait and do it when they see you on a bad downswing rather than an upswing in your winnings.

So you think its possible that I might get "Heat" Even Though im not card counting??? I was playing at a $100 Table, 6 Decks

 

[EasyRhino]

If you really are just card watching, not counting, then I wouldn't worry about it, unless you're playing at a notorious sweatshop.

They were quite possibly asking surveillance to rate your play. Another possibility is they got edgy when you approached the $10k threshold where you would need to fill out a CTR, and wanted to make sure your cash in and out was tracked.

 

[Mr. T]

The casinos always watch their big players very closely. Raising or lowering your bet has nothing to do with it. People do it all the time.
It is possible that they would give you special Comps or invite. They also want to know that there is nothing funny going on for big players.

 

[creeping panther]

Carmine

From your post I would recommend you take your lucky winnings and pay off some bills or do some good with that money, because you will lose it back to the casino since you are not a true AP player.

You will not be 86'ed since the casino will just wait you out to lose it all back, the math is with THEM, not you.

They are not threatened.

Creeping Panther

 

[ihate17]

big players get evaluated

Anyone betting big gets evaluated, especially if they are not flat betting and very few players just flat bet.
Just because you kind of watch what came out in the past hand or two will not get you pegged as a counter. As others pointed out, the count could be seriously minus, and you see a hand heavy in little cards and press your bet up. But the count could still be very negative and an evaluation will show this.

The pit is doing his job. I do not consider this heat, just something that happens to anyone betting big for that casino, and especially if you are winning.
The other thing was you were once up $9,000, this forces the pit to make that phone call because at $10,000 a CTR will be filled out on you. If you are basically unknown at that casino, you might be surprised and find they actually stop you from playing till you provide them with your SSN and other information. My guess would be they were evaluating your play before you saw the pit on the phone and the call had to do with a possible CTR.

ihate17

 

[sagefr0g]

So you think its possible that I might get "Heat" Even Though im not card counting??? I was playing at a $100 Table, 6 Decks

yes. despite what others are telling you and i'm not trying to contradict them but it does happen that players who are not using advantage play can get backed off or even 86'd. i've personaly seen on several occasions ploppies on the recieving end of some fairly severe heat from pit boss's.
i don't know the degree to which your betting according to the high or low card composition is accurate but if it is accurate then you could be confused with a card counter. even if your betting is not all that accurate it may still appear to the pit as if you are attempting to bet according to a count. the pit may not actually be counting the cards as they observe you but they may notice that you vary your bets in a way that is similar to that expected of a card counter. that could induce heat on you. now what conclusions the eye in the sky may draw should depend upon the actual accuracy that your bets come to according to what would be optimal for the count.
well there are loads of scenerios that could fit your situation as others have alluded to. in the final analysis you need to make the judgement as too whether or not you are getting heat and then decide what you want to do to minimize it in the case that you think you are.
here is a little story that happened to me in the local joint i play in.
there are about four card counters, myself included that frequent this joint. at least two of us make out pretty well overall. it's just low limit that we play and we don't play as a team or really together at all. incidently i have no doubt what so ever that most of the dealers and pit boss's in this joint know full well that i count cards. they just don't seem to care that much but i'm careful not to rub their noses in it. well anyway one day i was playing and was concentrating particuarly hard on the shoe in play. it must have been a pretty good count because i can remmember intently following the count and raising my bets accordingly. well i wasn't paying attention to much else around me except for the cards. i can remmeber as i was mulling over the count in my mind that i happened to look up from the table right into the face of the pit boss who was standing by my table his arms folded watching the cards and me. i mean i looked him square in the eyes (it was a total suprise to me that he was even there) right while i'm deep into musing over the count and what bet i was gonna put out lol. but anyway believe me there was no doubt in my mind what he knew about what i was doing. but i just looked down and continued playing on. he actually seemed amused, and i was well a bit nervous. lol

 

[Bojack1]

So you think its possible that I might get "Heat" Even Though im not card counting??? I was playing at a $100 Table, 6 Decks

I would say it is highly unlikely. You will get attention as you must be betting fairly large, and winning a good bit of money, but that is really just common practice. Its safe to say with that size betting you were not playing in any of the notorious sweatshops that might frown upon winning of any kind. If you are in most any other type casino your play should be welcomed back. You were not counting and the odds are very much against you that you were betting in accordance with advantage all along by accident. At this point the casinos will be anxiously awaiting a larger stakes player with a win to come back so the odds can catch up with them and give it back. I'm fairly certain if they thought you were a threat they would have stopped your play already as again at that level the scrutiny would be much higher. I hope you don't give it back, but I'd bet you will be welcomed back to play with open arms.

 

[InPlay]

From your post I would recommend you take your lucky winnings and pay off some bills or do some good with that money, because you will lose it back to the casino since you are not a true AP player.

You will not be 86'ed since the casino will just wait you out to lose it all back, the math is with THEM, not you.

They are not threatened.

Creeping Panther

How do you know he will lose it back? I personally know AP and non AP and some of the non AP are winning more money then AP. Some people are just plain lucky. They are going to fall into a pile of S--T and come out smelling like a ROSE no matter what. So don't ever assume anything even if the math don't jive.

 

[mjbballar23]

re

he might not loose it all back tomorrow but if he plays long enough he definitely will.

 

[InPlay]

he might not loose it all back tomorrow but if he plays long enough he definitely will.

Are you sure ? Sometimes people are just golden no matter what they do. I know it defies logic but it just happens. That's why we buy lottery tickets.

 

[sagefr0g]

From your post I would recommend you take your lucky winnings and pay off some bills or do some good with that money, because you will lose it back to the casino since you are not a true AP player.

You will not be 86'ed since the casino will just wait you out to lose it all back, the math is with THEM, not you.

They are not threatened.

Creeping Panther

it doesn't seem to me that it is written in stone that Carmine will lose it all back. infact Carmine's description of play indicates a possibility that some small advantage is being realized.
myself though i think Carmine is taking chances that are more risky than orthodox counters and that it would be advisable to seek out lower limit playing conditons to help mitigate that risk.

 

[EasyRhino]

Even if Carmine never loses it back (good luck to ya, bub), then the casino would still wecome him, and other large betting non advantage-playing players with open arms. The vast majority will lose money, and this is how the casino turns the lights on.

Unless you're at the Barbary Coast or something.

 

[creeping panther]

InPlay

Do you not believe in the math of the game? Do you also believe in vodoo play....?

If you played the following game with perfect basic and "watching" the cards as they came out but not counting or using deviations what do you think would happen over 500 hours of play, rules, S-17, 6d, doa,das, LS, double on split aces, split to 4 hands, 1 to 2 cut out, hand shuffle or machine shuffle. Consider 2 other players at the table on the average and you can go to 2 spots at will and back again, etc.

Creeping Panther.

 

[InPlay]

Do you not believe in the math of the game? Do you also believe in vodoo play....?

If you played the following game with perfect basic and "watching" the cards as they came out but not counting or using deviations what do you think would happen over 500 hours of play, rules, S-17, 6d, doa,das, LS, double on split aces, split to 4 hands, 1 to 2 cut out, hand shuffle or machine shuffle. Consider 2 other players at the table on the average and you can go to 2 spots at will and back again, etc.

Creeping Panther.

Depends which way the cards bounce.

 

[mdlbj]

Looks like a very playable game. My expected results would be determined by the count for each of the 500 hands.

Im sorry CP just re read your post. After 500 hrs. I would expect a few comps and to be poor. Yet when playing with an advantage, I would expect to be ahead. You should not speculate, learn how to play a strong game.

 

[sagefr0g]

Do you not believe in the math of the game? Do you also believe in vodoo play....?

If you played the following game with perfect basic and "watching" the cards as they came out but not counting or using deviations what do you think would happen over 500 hours of play, rules, S-17, 6d, doa,das, LS, double on split aces, split to 4 hands, 1 to 2 cut out, hand shuffle or machine shuffle. Consider 2 other players at the table on the average and you can go to 2 spots at will and back again, etc.

Creeping Panther.

yes believe in the math of the game and maybe a little bit of voodoo lol

as far as "watching" the cards, er well this was a trial of something similar what i call fuzzy counting with perfect basic strategy and I8 and there was even some steaming in this a few times lol......
this was circa 128 hours play or 12800 hands. s-17.8d.doa,das,Ls no double on split aces, spit to 4 hands and about 1.5 pen. with four other players and going to two hands at will.

 

[SPX]

While I think it may be markedly less effective in the shoe game, the "watch the cards" method CAN be used to gain an advantage in single deck if it's done right.